Relations In The Russia Ukraine Eu Triangle

Author : Nicholas Ross Smith
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 249 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (953 download)

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Download or read book EU-Russian Competition in Their Shared Neighbourhood written by Nicholas Ross Smith and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last decade, the shifting geopolitical setting of Eastern Europe, where a shared neighbourhood between the EU and Russia has emerged, has created an environment which is potentially more conducive to competition and conflict. Exacerbating this shift has been the evolving foreign policies of both the EU and Russia towards the neighbourhood they share (Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine) that has amplified the potential for competition for influence in these states. In order to address the overarching research puzzle of whether this geopolitical shift in Europe and foreign policy changes of the EU and Russia have made the relationship in their shared neighbourhood competitive or not, this thesis endeavours to assess the competitiveness of the EU’s and Russia’s foreign policies towards Ukraine, from 2010 up until the onset of the Ukraine crisis in November 2013. Theoretically, this thesis employs a novel neoclassical realist analytical framework which is built on the core assumption that the relative power position of a state in the international system is the main driver of foreign policy. Three intervening variables are singled out as playing an important, mediating role: a state’s role identity, decision-makers’ perceptions and the domestic foreign policy-making process. The interplay of the three intervening variables in the domestic setting of a state works to translate systemic pressures into foreign policies; a transmission belt from the international system to the final policy outcome. Consequently, understanding the nuanced decision-making processes of the EU and Russia represents a necessary step in attempting to understand the competitiveness of the relationship. Three specific policy areas are chosen to assess the competitiveness of the relationship: trade, energy and regime promotion. While trade and energy are sectors where high levels of interdependence exist and are, therefore, likely to be cooperative on some level, regime promotion represents a policy area where far fewer constraints on competition exist. It is argued that because all three are important components of a state’s foreign policy, they provide an interesting and important snapshot of the broader EU-Russia relationship in the scope of the shared neighbourhood, specifically Ukraine. The theoretically-informed analysis illustrates that from 2010 up until the start of the Ukraine crisis in November 2013, competition between the EU and Russia occurred in all three of the examined policy areas, albeit to different degrees. In the sector of energy, due to the high levels of gas interdependence in the EU-Russia-Ukraine triangle, short-term cooperation was a necessity of the relationship. Regarding trade (also an area of interdependence in the triangle), competition was clearly visible, but there was still potential for cooperation given the important trade links between all three. Last, the area of regime promotion was clearly the most competitive sector, essentially descending into a zero-sum game where the EU and Russia competed to secure a loyal regime in Ukraine. Consequently, the relationship between the EU and Russia was more competitive than cooperative and, as the Ukraine crisis subsequently illustrated, the pressure to engage in zero-sum games superseded the potential for positive-sum outcomes.