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Regional Spillovers In Sub Saharan Africa
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Book Synopsis Regional Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Francisco Arizala
Download or read book Regional Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Francisco Arizala and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After close to two decades of strong economic activity, overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa decelerated markedly in 2015–16 as the largest economies experienced negative or flat growth. Regional growth started recovering in 2017, but the question remains of how trends in the economies stuck in low gear will spill over to the countries that have maintained robust growth. This note illuminates the discussion by identifying growth spillover channels. The focus is on trade, banking, financial, remittance, investment, fiscal, and security channels, which are the most prominent and most likely to transmit growth trends across borders. In addition to bringing together findings from a broad array of existing research, the note identifies countries that are the most likely sources of regional spillovers and those that are most likely to be impacted, and provides estimates for the size of these channels. It finds that intraregional trade and remittance flows are an important channel for growth spillovers, while banking channels are less important but will remain a risk going forward. Finally, the note documents other important spillover channels through financial markets contagion, revenue-sharing arrangements in fiscal unions, commodity-pricing policies, corporate investment, and forced migration. The main takeaway is that the level of interdependence among sub-Saharan countries is higher than is generally assumed. Consequently, there is a need for additional emphasis on regional surveillance and spillover analysis, along with traditional bilateral surveillance.
Book Synopsis Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Francisco Arizala
Download or read book Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Francisco Arizala and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-24 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the steady increase in intraregional trade in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, links this rise to important growth spillovers in the region, and identifies the main source countries and those most vulnerable to the economic conditions of others. Estimates show that in the short run, positive idiosyncratic shocks to regional trading partners’ growth significantly increase growth in the average sub-Saharan African country, while in the long-run the annual impact of growth in regional trading partner’s is smaller in magnitude. Policy implications including the need to support further continent-wide integration and the associated growth spillovers are discussed. Actions policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa can take to capture the benefits of these spillovers, while limiting exposure to the associated risks, are also proposed.
Book Synopsis Spillovers from the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries by : Gustavo Ramirez
Download or read book Spillovers from the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries written by Gustavo Ramirez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-07 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external demand for their exports, declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions abroad. The last, proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills, is to our knowledge one of the first applications of such a measure of financial conditions for countries in the region.
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, October 2012, Sub-Saharan Africa by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, October 2012, Sub-Saharan Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-15 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa have remained generally robust despite a sluggish global economy. The near-term outlook for the region remains broadly positive, and growth is projected at 51⁄4 percent a year in 2012-13. Most low-income countries are projected to continue to grow strongly, supported by domestic demand, including from investment. The outlook is less favorable for many of the middle-income countries, especially South Africa, that are more closely linked to European markets and thus experience a more noticeable drag from the external environment. The main risks to the outlook are an intensification of financial stresses in the euro zone and a sharp fiscal adjustment in the US--the so-called fiscal cliff.
Book Synopsis Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa by : Mr.Derek Anderson
Download or read book Spillovers from China onto Sub-Saharan Africa written by Mr.Derek Anderson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-06 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China’s growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and the buildup of infrastructure in the region. The impact of spillovers from China has been an open question because of the challenge to use an internally consistent framework with solid economic foundations that accounts for both the direct impact China may have on individual countries in SSA through a variety of channels (trade, investment, financial) as well as the impact on the region through the global economy (economic activity and commodity prices). This paper explores those channels of transmission and provides illustrative order of magnitude for the short- and medium-term economic impact by using AFRMOD, a module of the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), a multicountry general equilibrium model developed at the IMF. Three alternative scenarios are considered: first, lower potential output in China that is originally misperceived as a temporary cyclical slowdown; second, structural reforms in China that aim to increase potential output; and third, a relocation of low-end manufacturing to sub-Saharan Africa.
Book Synopsis Sub-Saharan African Migration by : Mr.Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia
Download or read book Sub-Saharan African Migration written by Mr.Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-02 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.
Book Synopsis Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africa by : Thomas Farole
Download or read book Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africa written by Thomas Farole and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the results of a groundbreaking study on spillovers of knowledge and technology from global value-chain oriented foreign direct investment (FDI) in Sub-Saharan Africa, and discusses implications for policymakers hoping to harness the power of FDI for economic development.
Book Synopsis Spillover Effects and the East African Community by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Spillover Effects and the East African Community written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-15 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The East African Community (EAC) countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda) have been affected by the global financial crisis and global recession. The fall in global demand and inflows and tighter liquidity conditions abroad affected the countries in this region as elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. But how hard have countries in the EAC been hit? Have the spillovers from the global crisis affected countries in the region as much as other countries in the sub-Saharan region? Have the transmission channels or magnitudes of the spillovers been different across EAC countries? How can these countries return quickly to a path of sustained high growth? What is the role for policy? Would acceleration of regional integration and policy coordination help achieve this goal? Would it make the region less susceptible to shocks? This paper focus on the EAC countries and attempts to address these questions.
Book Synopsis Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis by : Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko
Download or read book Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis written by Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-29 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sub-Saharan African countries are exposed to spillovers from global financial variables, but the impact on economic activity is more significant in more financially developed economies. Generalized impulse responses from a GVAR exercise demonstrate how the CBOE volatility index (VIX) and credit conditions around the globe impact a subset of sub-Saharan African economies and regions. The estimated relationships suggest that the effect of global uncertainty is more pervasive in exports, with the impact on economic and lending activities being mixed. The channels of transmission include the effects of global financial variables on commodity prices and on trading-partner’s macroeconomic and financial variables. The analysis suggests that shocks to credit conditions in the euro area and the U.S. have not significantly affected local lending conditions or economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa during 1991-2011, except perhaps in South Africa.
Book Synopsis The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa: Some Facts and Possible Explanations by : Olivier Basdevant
Download or read book The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa: Some Facts and Possible Explanations written by Olivier Basdevant and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-04 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anecdotal evidence suggests that the economies of South Africa and its neighbors (Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe) are tightly integrated with each other. There are important institutional linkages. Across the region there are also large flows of goods and capital, significant financial sector interconnections, as well as sizeable labor movements and associated remittance flows. These interconnections suggest that South Africa’s GDP growth rate should affect positively its neighbors’, a point we illustrate formally with the help of numerical simulations of the IMF’s GIMF model. However, our review and update of the available econometric evidence suggest that there is no strong evidence of real spillovers in the region after 1994, once global shocks are controlled for. More generally, we find no evidence of real spillovers from South Africa to the rest of the continent post-1994. We investigate the possible reasons for this lack of spillovers. Most importantly, the economies of South Africa and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa might have de-coupled in the mid-1990s. That is when international sanctions on South Africa ended and the country re-integrated with the global economy, while growth in the rest of the continent accelerated due to a combination of domestic and external factors.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498386458 Total Pages :110 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014 by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, October 2014 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-10-20 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain strong, driven by efforts to invest in infrastructure and strong agricultural production. The current Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is exacting a heavy toll, with spillovers to neighboring countries. External threats to the region's overall positive outlook include global financial conditions and a slowdown in emerging market growth.
Book Synopsis Building Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa's Fragile States by : Mr.Enrique Gelbard
Download or read book Building Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa's Fragile States written by Mr.Enrique Gelbard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-25 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the persistence of fragility in some sub-Saharan African states and the multiple dimensions of state weakness that are simultaneously at play. This study also provides an overview of the analytics of fragility, conflict, and international engagement with fragile states before turning to an assessment of the current state of affairs and the areas in which there has been progress in building resilience. The paper also looks at the role of fiscal policies and institutions and analyzes growth accelerations and decelerations. Seven country case studies help identify more concretely some key factors at play, and the diversity of paths followed, with an emphasis on the sequencing of reforms. The paper concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications.
Book Synopsis Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Mr.Giovanni Melina
Download or read book Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Mr.Giovanni Melina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-05 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.
Book Synopsis On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Anh D. M. Nguyen
Download or read book On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Anh D. M. Nguyen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-08-05 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks.
Book Synopsis Public Policies and Private Savings and Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Mr.Dhaneshwar Ghura
Download or read book Public Policies and Private Savings and Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Mr.Dhaneshwar Ghura and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-02-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses empirically the role of public policies in stimulating private savings and investment in sub-Saharan African countries, based on data for the period 1986-92. The main findings of the analysis are as follows: (i) policies effective in stimulating private savings and investment include those that keep the rate of inflation low, reduce macroeconomic uncertainty, promote financial deepening, and lower the external debt burden; (ii) measures that promote structural reforms and reduce the budget deficit (without lowering government investment) help to raise private investment; and (iii) declines in government savings are only partially offset by increases in private savings.
Book Synopsis Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area by : Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko
Download or read book Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area written by Mr.Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-31 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spillovers from South Africa into the other members of the Souther Africa Customs Union (known as the BLNS for Botstwana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland) are substantial reflecting sizeable real and financial interlinkages. However, shocks to real GDP growth in South Africa do not seem to systematically affect growth developments in BLNS countries as a group. Nevertheless, vector autoregressions, which allow country-specific parameters, suggest some strong spillovers onto the smaller economies.
Book Synopsis Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis by : Luc Eyraud
Download or read book Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sub-Saharan African countries are facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that is likely to severely hurt credit quality and raise non-performing loans from already high levels. Banks have a critical role to play not only during the crisis by providing temporarily relief to businesses and households, but also during the recovery by supporting economic activity and facilitating the structural transformations engaged by the pandemic.
