Recovery Rates In Credit Default Models Theory And Application To Corporate Bonds

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Recovery Rates in Credit Default Models Theory and Application to Corporate Bonds

Author : Dirk Herkommer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Recovery Rates in Credit Default Models Theory and Application to Corporate Bonds by : Dirk Herkommer

Download or read book Recovery Rates in Credit Default Models Theory and Application to Corporate Bonds written by Dirk Herkommer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper I derive a reduced form credit risk model with stochastic recovery rates that is able to distinguish between default and bankruptcy and that is able to price defaulted debt consistently. First, I develop a general corporate bond pricing formula with the help of Characteristic Functions. Second, I specify the driving state variables as well as the functional form of intensities and recovery rates to derive a closed form valuation formula. In a numerical example I show how the resulting credit spreads depend on the default and bankruptcy parameters and the assumption of stochastic intensities and recovery rates. Credit spreads increase with higher default and bankruptcy intensities and decrease with higher recovery rates at default and at bankruptcy. If intensities and recovery rates are constant, the resulting term structure differs significantly. Additionally modeling the recovery rates stochastically has smaller effects.

The Link between Default and Recovery Rates

Author : Edward I. Altman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Link between Default and Recovery Rates by : Edward I. Altman

Download or read book The Link between Default and Recovery Rates written by Edward I. Altman and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002. Our econometric univariate and multivariate models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities, with default rates playing a pivotal role. Such a link would bring about a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses as measured by some widespread credit risk models, and would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord. Our results have also important implications for investors in corporate bonds and bank loans, and for all markets (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.) which depend on recovery rates as a key variable.

Credit Risk Pricing Models

Author : Bernd Schmid
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540247165
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk Pricing Models by : Bernd Schmid

Download or read book Credit Risk Pricing Models written by Bernd Schmid and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-11-07 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit Risk Pricing Models - now in its second edition - gives a deep insight into the latest basic and advanced credit risk modelling techniques covering not only the standard structural, reduced form and hybrid approaches but also showing how these methods can be applied to practice. The text covers a broad range of financial instruments, including all kinds of defaultable fixed and floating rate debt, credit derivatives and collateralised debt obligations.This volume will be a valuable source for the financial community involved in pricing credit linked financial instruments. In addition, the book can be used by students and academics for a comprehensive overview of the most important credit risk modelling issues.

Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises

Author : Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451852916
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises by : Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau

Download or read book Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises written by Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.

The Link between Default and Recovery Rates

Author : Edward I. Altman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Link between Default and Recovery Rates by : Edward I. Altman

Download or read book The Link between Default and Recovery Rates written by Edward I. Altman and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. Moreover, it simulates the effects on mandatory capital requirements like those proposed in 2001 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. We present the analysis and results in four distinct sections. The first section examines the literature of the last three decades of the various structural-form, closed-form and other credit risk and portfolio credit value-at-risk (VaR) models and the way they explicitly or implicitly treat the recovery rate variable. Section 2 presents simulation results under three different recovery rate scenarios and examines the impact of these scenarios on the resulting risk measures: our results show a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses when recovery rates are stochastic and negatively correlated with default probabilities. In Section 3, we empirically examine the recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2000. We attempt to explain recovery rates by specifying a rather straightforward statistical least squares regression model. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities. Our econometric univariate and multivariate time series models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. Finally, in Section 4 we analyze how the link between default probability and recovery risk would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord, due to be released in 2002. We see that, if banks use their own estimates of LGD (as in the quot;advancedquot; IRB approach), an increase in the sensitivity of banks' LGD due to the variation in PD over economic cycles is likely to follow. Our results have important implications for just about all portfolio credit risk models, for markets which depend on recovery rates as a key variable (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.), for the current debate on the revised BIS guidelines for capital requirements on bank credit assets, and for investors in corporate bonds of all credit qualities.

The Link between Default and Recovery Rates

Author : Andrea Sironi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Link between Default and Recovery Rates by : Andrea Sironi

Download or read book The Link between Default and Recovery Rates written by Andrea Sironi and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. Moreover, it simulates the effects on mandatory capital requirements like those proposed in 2001 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. We present the analysis and results in four distinct sections. The first section examines the literature of the last three decades of the various structural-form, closed-form and other credit risk and portfolio credit value-at-risk (VaR) models and the way they explicitly or implicitly treat the recovery rate variable. Section 2 presents simulation results under three different recovery rate scenarios and examines the impact of these scenarios on the resulting risk measures: our results show a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses when recovery rates are stochastic and negatively correlated with default probabilities. In Section 3, we empirically examine the recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2000. We attempt to explain recovery rates by specifying a rather straightforward statistical least squares regression model. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities. Our econometric univariate and multivariate time series models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. Finally, in Section 4 we analyze how the link between default probability and recovery risk would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord, due to be released in 2002. We see that, if banks use their own estimates of LGD (as in the quot;advancedquot; IRB approach), an increase in the sensitivity of banks' LGD due to the variation in PD over economic cycles is likely to follow. Our results have important implications for just about all portfolio credit risk models, for markets which depend on recovery rates as a key variable (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives, etc.), for the current debate on the revised BIS guidelines for capital requirements on bank credit assets, and for investors in corporate bonds of all credit qualities.

The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions

Author : Jiri Podpiera
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455200573
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions by : Jiri Podpiera

Download or read book The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.

The Link Between Default and Recovery Rates

Author : Edward I. Altman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Link Between Default and Recovery Rates by : Edward I. Altman

Download or read book The Link Between Default and Recovery Rates written by Edward I. Altman and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Oxford Handbook of Credit Derivatives

Author : Alexander Lipton
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191648256
Total Pages : 828 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Credit Derivatives by : Alexander Lipton

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Credit Derivatives written by Alexander Lipton and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2013-01-17 with total page 828 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the late 1990s, the spectacular growth of a secondary market for credit through derivatives has been matched by the emergence of mathematical modelling analysing the credit risk embedded in these contracts. This book aims to provide a broad and deep overview of this modelling, covering statistical analysis and techniques, modelling of default of both single and multiple entities, counterparty risk, Gaussian and non-Gaussian modelling, and securitisation. Both reduced-form and firm-value models for the default of single entities are considered in detail, with extensive discussion of both their theoretical underpinnings and practical usage in pricing and risk. For multiple entity modelling, the now notorious Gaussian copula is discussed with analysis of its shortcomings, as well as a wide range of alternative approaches including multivariate extensions to both firm-value and reduced form models, and continuous-time Markov chains. One important case of multiple entities modelling - counterparty risk in credit derivatives - is further explored in two dedicated chapters. Alternative non-Gaussian approaches to modelling are also discussed, including extreme-value theory and saddle-point approximations to deal with tail risk. Finally, the recent growth in securitisation is covered, including house price modelling and pricing models for asset-backed CDOs. The current credit crisis has brought modelling of the previously arcane credit markets into the public arena. Lipton and Rennie with their excellent team of contributors, provide a timely discussion of the mathematical modelling that underpins both credit derivatives and securitisation. Though technical in nature, the pros and cons of various approaches attempt to provide a balanced view of the role that mathematical modelling plays in the modern credit markets. This book will appeal to students and researchers in statistics, economics, and finance, as well as practitioners, credit traders, and quantitative analysts

Derivative Securities

Author : Robert A. Jarrow
Publisher : Thomson South-Western
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 728 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Derivative Securities by : Robert A. Jarrow

Download or read book Derivative Securities written by Robert A. Jarrow and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1996 with total page 728 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Derivative Securities provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to derivative securities, such as forward contracts, futures contracts, options on assets, options on futures contracts, and credit swaps. It features a new, unified approach to the pricing and hedging of futures and options, and covers diverse areas such as equity, stock index, foreign currency, interest rate and commodity derivatives, as well as swaps and exotic options."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved

The Link between Default and Recovery Rates

Author : Edward I. Altman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Link between Default and Recovery Rates by : Edward I. Altman

Download or read book The Link between Default and Recovery Rates written by Edward I. Altman and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the impact of various assumptions about the association between aggregate default probabilities and the loss given default on bank loans and corporate bonds, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. Moreover, it simulates the effects of this relationship on the procyclicality of mandatory capital requirements like those proposed in 2001 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. We present the analysis and results in four distinct sections. The first section examines the literature of the last three decades of the various structural-form, closed-form and other credit risk and portfolio credit value-at-risk (VaR) models and the way they explicitly or implicitly treat the recovery rate variable. Section 2 presents simulation results under three different recovery rate scenarios and examines the impact of these scenarios on the resulting risk measures: our results show a significant increase in both expected an unexpected losses when recovery rates are stochastic and negatively correlated with default probabilities. In Section 3, we empirically examine the recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2000. We attempt to explain recovery rates by specifying a rather straightforward statistical least squares regression model. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities. Our econometric univariate and multivariate time series models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. Finally, in Section 4 we analyse how the link between default probability and recovery risk would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord, due to be released in 2002. We see that, if banks are let free to use their own estimates of LGD (as in the advanced IRB approach), an increase in their sensitivity to economic cycles would follow. Our results have important implications for just about all portfolio credit risk models, for markets which depend on recovery rates as a key variable (eg securitisations, credit derivatives, etc), for the current debate on the revised BIS guidelines for capital requirements on bank credit assets, and for investors in corporate bonds of all credit qualities.

Credit Default Swaps

Author : Marti Subrahmanyam
Publisher : Now Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781601989000
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Default Swaps by : Marti Subrahmanyam

Download or read book Credit Default Swaps written by Marti Subrahmanyam and published by Now Publishers. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.

Credit Risk

Author : Darrell Duffie
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400829178
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk by : Darrell Duffie

Download or read book Credit Risk written by Darrell Duffie and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.

The Link between Default and Recovery Rates

Author : Edward I. Altman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Link between Default and Recovery Rates by : Edward I. Altman

Download or read book The Link between Default and Recovery Rates written by Edward I. Altman and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the association between aggregate default and recovery rates on credit assets, and seeks to empirically explain this critical relationship. We examine recovery rates on corporate bond defaults, over the period 1982-2002. Our econometric univariate and multivariate models explain a significant portion of the variance in bond recovery rates aggregated across all seniority and collateral levels. The central thesis is that aggregate recovery rates are basically a function of supply and demand for the securities, with default rates playing a pivotal role. Such a link would bring about a significant increase in both expected and unexpected losses as measured by some widespread credit risk models, and would affect the procyclicality effects of the New Basel Capital Accord. Our results have also important implications for investors in corporate bonds and bank loans, and for all markets (e.g., securitizations, credit derivatives) that depend on recovery rates as a key variable.

Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging

Author : Tomasz R. Bielecki
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3662048213
Total Pages : 517 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging by : Tomasz R. Bielecki

Download or read book Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging written by Tomasz R. Bielecki and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The motivation for the mathematical modeling studied in this text on developments in credit risk research is the bridging of the gap between mathematical theory of credit risk and the financial practice. Mathematical developments are covered thoroughly and give the structural and reduced-form approaches to credit risk modeling. Included is a detailed study of various arbitrage-free models of default term structures with several rating grades.

The Link Between Default and Recovery Rates

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (248 download)

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Book Synopsis The Link Between Default and Recovery Rates by :

Download or read book The Link Between Default and Recovery Rates written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Advanced Credit Risk Analysis

Author : Didier Cossin
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Advanced Credit Risk Analysis by : Didier Cossin

Download or read book Advanced Credit Risk Analysis written by Didier Cossin and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2001 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advanced Credit Analysis presents the latest and most advanced modelling techniques in the theory and practice of credit risk pricing and management. The book stresses the logic of theoretical models from the structural and the reduced-form kind, their applications and extensions. It shows the mathematical models that help determine optimal collateralisation and marking-to-market policies. It looks at modern credit risk management tools and the current structuring techniques available with credit derivatives.