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Reconsidering The Basic Relationships Between Exchange Rates Exchange Rate Expectations And Macroeconomic Fundamentals
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Book Synopsis Reconsidering the Basic Relationships Between Exchange Rates, Exchange Rate Expectations and Macroeconomic Fundamentals by : Michael D. Goldberg
Download or read book Reconsidering the Basic Relationships Between Exchange Rates, Exchange Rate Expectations and Macroeconomic Fundamentals written by Michael D. Goldberg and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Exchange Rates, Price and Interest Rates by : Stephan Schulmeister
Download or read book Exchange Rates, Price and Interest Rates written by Stephan Schulmeister and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis On the Unstable Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals by : Philippe Bacchetta
Download or read book On the Unstable Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals written by Philippe Bacchetta and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is well known from anecdotal, survey and econometric evidence that the relationship between the exchange rate and macro fundamentals is highly unstable. This could be explained when structural parameters are known and very volatile, neither of which seems plausible. Instead we argue that large and frequent variations in the relationship between the exchange rate and macro fundamentals naturally develop when structural parameters in the economy are unknown and change very slowly. We show that the reduced form relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals is driven not by the structural parameters themselves, but rather by expectations of these parameters. These expectations can be highly unstable as a result of perfectly rational "scapegoat" effects. This happens when parameters can potentially change much more in the long run than the short run. This generates substantial uncertainty about the level of parameters, even though monthly or annual changes are small. This mechanism can also be relevant in other contexts of forward looking variables and could explain the widespread evidence of parameter instability found in macroeconomic and financial data. Finally, we show that parameter instability has remarkably little effect on the volatility of exchange rates, the in-sample explanatory power of macro fundamentals and the ability to forecast out of sample.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle by : Falkmar Butgereit
Download or read book Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle written by Falkmar Butgereit and published by Diplomica Verlag. This book was released on 2010 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Still after more than thirty years of free floating exchange rates, large parts of exchange rate dynamics remain a puzzle. As this book shows, much progress has been made in explaining exchange rate movements over longer horizons. It also shows, however, that short-run movements are far more challenging to explain. The book is based upon a variety of papers, many of them released recently. A key aspiration of the literature has always been not only to explain past exchange rate behavior but also to forecast out of sample and to compare it to the simple random walk outcome. Here some development has been made after Meese and Rogoff's (1983) truculent verdict of the performance of common exchange rate models. By means of empirical analysis and descriptive statistics this book further supports the established long-run relationships between exchange rates and fundamentals such as expected productivity growth, real GDP growth, domestic investment, interest rates, inflation, government spending, and current account balances. It finds that these fundamentals affect the exchange rate to varying degrees over time. Turning to short-term exchange rate dynamics, it turns out that a different set of forces is at play. The key to explaining short-run movements is to be found in an extensive micro-foundation that factors in a pronounced heterogeneity among market participants and information asymmetries, as well as the possibility of sudden shifts in sentiment, beliefs, and the degree of risk aversion. Promising results have been obtained by order-flow analysis and high frequency data. Also, the consideration of chartism and speculators facilitates understanding for otherwise puzzling exchange rate movements. The last attempt to tackle the understanding of exchange rate behavior is the use of frequency domain analysis and in particular spectral analysis which tries to track down any cyclical patterns in the various moments of time series. And as we shall see forex indeed incorpor
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Ronald MacDonald
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2007-03-12 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 2007. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence is the second edition of Floating Exchange Rates: Theories and Evidence, and builds on the successful content and structure of the previous edition, but has been comprehensively updated and expanded to include additional literature on the determination of both fixed and floating exchange rates. Core topics covered include: • the purchasing power parity hypothesis and the PPP puzzle; • the monetary and portfolio-balance approaches to exchange rates; • the new open economy macroeconomics approach to exchange rates; and • the determination of exchange rates in target zone models and speculative attack models. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence also includes extensive discussion of recent econometric work on exchange rates with a particular focus on equilibrium exchange rates and measuring exchange rate misalignment, as well as discussion on the non-fundamentals-based approaches to exchange rate behaviour, such as the market microstructure approach. The book will appeal to academics and postgraduate students with an interest in all aspects of international finance and will also be of interest to practitioners concerned with issues relating to equilibrium exchange rates and the forecastability of currencies in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals.
Book Synopsis A Fundamental Connection by : Vania Stavrakeva
Download or read book A Fundamental Connection written by Vania Stavrakeva and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents new stylized facts about exchange rates and their relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals. We show that macroeconomic surprises explain a large majority of the variation in nominal exchange rate changes at a quarterly frequency. Using a novel present value decomposition of exchange rate changes that is disciplined with survey forecast data, we show that macroeconomic surprises are also a very important driver of the currency risk premium component and explain about half of its variation. These surprises have even greater explanatory power during economic downturns and periods of financial uncertainty.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Exchange Rates by : Lucio Sarno
Download or read book The Economics of Exchange Rates written by Lucio Sarno and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-01-09 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last few decades exchange rate economics has seen a number of developments, with substantial contributions to both the theory and empirics of exchange rate determination. Important developments in econometrics and the increasingly large availability of high-quality data have also been responsible for stimulating the large amount of empirical work on exchange rates in this period. Nonetheless, while our understanding of exchange rates has significantly improved, a number of challenges and open questions remain in the exchange rate debate, enhanced by events including the launch of the Euro and the large number of recent currency crises. This volume provides a selective coverage of the literature on exchange rates, focusing on developments from within the last fifteen years. Clear explanations of theories are offered, alongside an appraisal of the literature and suggestions for further research and analysis.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Ronald MacDonald
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
Book Synopsis On Exchange Rates by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book On Exchange Rates written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These seventeen essays provide an accessible and thorough reference for understanding the role of exchange rates in the international monetary system since 1973, when the rates were allowed to float. The essays analyze such issues as exchange rate movements, exchange risk premia, investor expectations of exchange rates and behavior of exchange rates in different systems. Frankel's sound empirical treatment of exchange rate questions shows that it is possible to produce work that is interesting from a purely intellectual viewpoint while contributing to practical knowledge of the real world of international economics and finance.The essays have been organized in a way that provides an introduction to the field of empirical international finance. Part I documents the steady reduction in barriers to international capital movement and leads logically to part II, which explains how exchange rates are determined. Both monetary and portfolio-based models are surveyed in part II, providing a clear transition to the topic of part III; the possible existence of an exchange risk premium. Part IV applies the tools discussed in earlier sections to explore various policy questions related to exchange rate expectations such as whether foreign exchange intervention matters and whether the European monetary system had become credible by 1991. Each part begins with a detailed introduction explaining not only the central issues of that section but also suggesting connections with other essays in the book.Jeffrey A. Frankel is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Exchange Rates by : Lucio Sarno
Download or read book The Economics of Exchange Rates written by Lucio Sarno and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last few decades exchange rate economics has seen a number of developments, with substantial contributions to both the theory and empirics of exchange rate determination. Important developments in econometrics and the increasingly large availability of high-quality data have also been responsible for stimulating the large amount of empirical work on exchange rates in this period. Nonetheless, while our understanding of exchange rates has significantly improved, a number of challenges and open questions remain in the exchange rate debate, enhanced by events including the launch of the Euro and the large number of recent currency crises. This volume provides a selective coverage of the literature on exchange rates, focusing on developments from within the last fifteen years. Clear explanations of theories are offered, alongside an appraisal of the literature and suggestions for further research and analysis.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Dynamics, Expectations, and Monetary Policy by : Qianying Chen
Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics, Expectations, and Monetary Policy written by Qianying Chen and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper re-investigates the implications of monetary policy rules on changes in exchange rate, in a risk-adjusted, uncovered interest parity model with unrestricted parameters, emphasizing the importance of modeling market expectations of monetary policy. I use consensus forecasts as a proxy for market expectations. The analysis on the Deutsche mark, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, and the British pound relative to the U.S. dollar from 1979 to 2008 shows that, through the expectations of future monetary policy, Taylor rule fundamentals are able to forecast changes in the exchange rate, even over short-term horizons of less than two years. Furthermore, the market expectation formation processes of short-term interest rates change over time and differ across countries, which contributes to the time varying relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals, together with the time varying currency risk premia and exchange rate forecast errors.
Book Synopsis A Scapegoat Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations by : Philippe Bacchetta
Download or read book A Scapegoat Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations written by Philippe Bacchetta and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "While empirical evidence finds only a weak relationship between nominal exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals, forex markets participants often attribute exchange rate movements to a macroeconomic variable. The variables that matter, however, appear to change over time and some variable is typically taken as a scapegoat. For example, the current dollar weakness appears to be caused almost exclusively by the large current account deficit, while its previous strength was explained mainly by growth differentials. In this paper, we propose an explanation of this phenomenon in a simple monetary model of the exchange rate with noisy rational expectations, where investors have heterogeneous information on some structural parameter of the economy. In this context, there may be rational confusion about the true source of exchange rate fluctuations, so that if an unobservable variable affects the exchange rate, investors may attribute this movement to some current macroeconomic fundamental. We show that this effect applies only to variables with large imbalances. The model thus implies that the impact of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate changes over time"--NBER website
Book Synopsis The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals by : Suteera Tanakitkosed
Download or read book The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals written by Suteera Tanakitkosed and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals by : Mr. Steven A. Symansky
Download or read book Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals written by Mr. Steven A. Symansky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-15 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes the methods and types of indicators that are often employed, both insid and outside the IMF, to assess whether exchange rates are broadly in line with economic fundamentals.
Book Synopsis Exchange-rate Determination by : Eelke de Jong
Download or read book Exchange-rate Determination written by Eelke de Jong and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Exchange rates and economic fundamentals by : Peter Clark [and three others]
Download or read book Exchange rates and economic fundamentals written by Peter Clark [and three others] and published by . This book was released on with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Exchange Rates and International Finance by : Laurence S. Copeland
Download or read book Exchange Rates and International Finance written by Laurence S. Copeland and published by Pearson Education. This book was released on 2005 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange rates and exchange rate fluctuation continue to play an increasingly important role in all our lives. Exchange Rates and International Finance fourth edition provides a clear and concise guide to the causes and consequences of exchange rate fluctuations, enabling you to grasp the essentials of the theory and its relevance to major events in currency markets. The orientation of the book is towards exchange rate determination with particular emphasis given to the contributions of modern finance theory. Both fixed and floating exchange rate models and empirical results are explored and discussed. KEY FEATURES A clear, non-technical explanation of the issues, emphasising intuitive understanding and interpretation of economic arguments rather than mathematical proofs. A balanced summary of the state of our knowledge in this area, including explanations of the problems faced by researchers in this field, and an indication of what questions remain open. Provides a sound overview of empirical evidence, without going into intricate detail: a springboard for those wishing to delve deeper into the published literature. Early chapters explain the basics of demand and supply, and basic macroeconomics, so those without prior study in economics will find the subject accessible. Covers leading edge material including the latest general equilibrium approaches. NEW TO THIS EDITION Thoroughly updated to reflect recent events on the world monetary/financial scene. More included on recent empirical results. New chapter on general equilibrium models to cover the latest thinking on more advanced techniques. Expanded and up-to-date coverage of the Euro. Extended coverage of recent innovations on the Law of One Price and Purchasing Power Parity. New section on the relationship between PPP, UIRP and the Fisher equation. Suitable for those following a course on international macroeconomics, international finance, or international money as a part of an economics or business programme at undergraduate, MBA or specialist Masters levels. Laurence Copeland is Professor of Finance at Cardiff University, UK.
