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Reckoning With Risk
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Book Synopsis Reckoning with Risk by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Download or read book Reckoning with Risk written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2003-04-24 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are ordinary people able to reason with risk? Detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. In so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.
Download or read book Dead Reckoning written by Diane Vaughan and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2023-02-13 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vaughan unveils the complicated and high-pressure world of air traffic controllers as they navigate technology and political and public climates, and shows how they keep the skies so safe. When two airplanes were flown into the World Trade Center towers on September 11, 2001, Americans watched in uncomprehending shock as first responders struggled to react to the situation on the ground. Congruently, another remarkable and heroic feat was taking place in the air: more than six hundred and fifty air traffic control facilities across the country coordinated their efforts to ground four thousand flights in just two hours—an achievement all the more impressive considering the unprecedented nature of the task. In Dead Reckoning, Diane Vaughan explores the complex work of air traffic controllers, work that is built upon a close relationship between human organizational systems and technology and is remarkably safe given the high level of risk. Vaughan observed the distinct skill sets of air traffic controllers and the ways their workplaces changed to adapt to technological developments and public and political pressures. She chronicles the ways these forces affected their jobs, from their relationships with one another and the layouts of their workspace to their understanding of their job and its place in society. The result is a nuanced and engaging look at an essential role that demands great coordination, collaboration, and focus—a role that technology will likely never be able to replace. Even as the book conveys warnings about complex systems and the liabilities of technological and organizational innovation, it shows the kinds of problem-solving solutions that evolved over time and the importance of people.
Download or read book Risk Savvy written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-03-31 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut Feelings In this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it’s about next year’s stock market or a person’s risk of getting cancer—is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, Risk Savvy, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there’s hope. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.
Book Synopsis Calculated Risks by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Download or read book Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2015-11-10 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Download or read book Risk/Reward written by Anne Kreamer and published by Random House. This book was released on 2015-06-09 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A persuasive and eye-opening look at the importance of embracing risk in our working lives—and how to use it to achieve lifelong career success Some of us relish the chance to fly without a net, others . . . not so much. But no matter how adventurous we might be in our personal lives, most of us are wary of allowing risk into our careers. With an economy in constant flux and a job market in which uncertainty is the only constant, stepping outside one’s comfort zone can feel dangerous. But as the findings of this eye-opening and urgent book attest, the avoidance of risk might pose the greatest danger of all to our career prospects. In Risk/Reward, trend-spotter and career guru Anne Kreamer makes the compelling case that embracing risk is essential to managing a twenty-first-century career. Risk-taking isn’t just for entrepreneurs, nor does it require working on a figurative tightrope. Rather, Kreamer says, conscious, consistent, and modest risk-taking can help us become more able to recognize opportunity when it appears, and more likely to seize the chance to make the right change at the right moment. Risk/Reward presents a framework for making the most of today’s ever-evolving workplace and turning risk-taking into a daily practice. Using proprietary data from three national studies about the American worker, Kreamer explores the importance of career risk-taking through profiles of four Risk/Reward personality types: Pioneers, Thinkers, Defenders, and Drifters. She presents a Risk/Reward Matrix that anyone can use to identify his or her own innate risk threshold, and she identifies constructive ways to implement risk in everyday situations—from initiating an uncomfortable conversation with a boss to sharing out-of-the-box ideas with colleagues or constructively challenging long-held practices in an organization. Peppered throughout Risk/Reward are insights and hard-won wisdom from notable achievers such as bestselling author Anna Quindlen, journalist Jane Pauley, CNBC financial maven Jim Cramer, thought leader Po Bronson, and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg. Timely and insightful, Risk/Reward is a unique blend of practical and inspirational wisdom that even the most risk-averse person can harness on the path toward success and fulfillment. Praise for Anne Kreamer’s It’s Always Personal: Navigating Emotion in the New Workplace “A stimulating read bolstered by . . . some of the best recent work on emotional intelligence and the science of happiness.”—The Wall Street Journal “So what should be the rules and boundaries for showing how you feel while you work? That’s a question asked and answered in Anne Kreamer’s fascinating . . . look at an issue that rarely gets discussed.”—The Washington Post “Finally, someone is willing to unpack the morass of anger, anxiety, sadness, and joy that drives the workday. . . . [Kreamer] has hit the ‘It’s about time!’ button.”—Elle “[A] lively, well-researched exploration of emotions on the job.”—Oprah.com “Explores how to be true to your ‘emotional flashpoints—anger, fear, anxiety, empathy, happiness and crying’—without sabotaging your career.”—The New York Times Book Review
Book Synopsis The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy, and the Future of American Power by : Michael Moran
Download or read book The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy, and the Future of American Power written by Michael Moran and published by St. Martin's Press. This book was released on 2012-04-10 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A leading forecaster of economic and political trends takes a sharp look at the decline of American influence in the world, and how it can prepare for the new reality. The age of American global dominance is ending. Today, a host of forces are converging to challenge its cherished notion of exceptionalism, and risky economic and foreign policies have steadily eroded the power structure in place since the Cold War. Staggering under a huge burden of debt, the country must make some tough choices—or cede sovereignty to its creditors. In The Reckoning, Michael Moran, geostrategy analyst explores the challenges ahead -- and what, if anything, can be prevent chaos as America loses its perch at the top of the mountain. Covering developments like unprecedented information technologies, the growing prosperity of China, India, Brazil, and Turkey, and the diminished importance of Wall Street in the face of global markets, Moran warns that the coming shift will have serious consequences not just for the United States, but for the wider world. Countries that have traditionally depended on the United States for protection and global stability will have to fend for themselves. Moran describes how, with a bit of wise leadership, America can transition to this new world order gracefully—by managing entitlements, reigniting sustainable growth, reforming immigration policy, launching new regional dialogues that bring friend and rival together in cooperative multinational structures, and breaking the poisonous deadlock in Washington. If not, he warns, history won't wait.
Book Synopsis Dead Reckoning by : Charlaine Harris
Download or read book Dead Reckoning written by Charlaine Harris and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2011-05-03 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Caught up in the politics of the vampire world, psychic Sookie Stackhouse learns that she is as much of a pawn as any ordinary human in this novel in the #1 New York Times bestselling series—the inspiration for the HBO® original series True Blood. With her knack for being in trouble’s way, Sookie witnesses the firebombing of Merlotte’s, the bar where she works. Since Sam Merlotte is now known to be two-natured, suspicion falls immediately on the anti-shifters in the area. Sookie suspects otherwise, but her attention is divided when she realizes that her lover, Eric Northman, and his “child” Pam are plotting to kill the vampire who is now their master. Gradually, Sookie is drawn into the plot—which is much more complicated than she knows...
Book Synopsis How the Word Is Passed by : Clint Smith
Download or read book How the Word Is Passed written by Clint Smith and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-06-01 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This “important and timely” (Drew Faust, Harvard Magazine) #1 New York Times bestseller examines the legacy of slavery in America—and how both history and memory continue to shape our everyday lives. Beginning in his hometown of New Orleans, Clint Smith leads the reader on an unforgettable tour of monuments and landmarks—those that are honest about the past and those that are not—that offer an intergenerational story of how slavery has been central in shaping our nation's collective history, and ourselves. It is the story of the Monticello Plantation in Virginia, the estate where Thomas Jefferson wrote letters espousing the urgent need for liberty while enslaving more than four hundred people. It is the story of the Whitney Plantation, one of the only former plantations devoted to preserving the experience of the enslaved people whose lives and work sustained it. It is the story of Angola, a former plantation-turned-maximum-security prison in Louisiana that is filled with Black men who work across the 18,000-acre land for virtually no pay. And it is the story of Blandford Cemetery, the final resting place of tens of thousands of Confederate soldiers. A deeply researched and transporting exploration of the legacy of slavery and its imprint on centuries of American history, How the Word Is Passed illustrates how some of our country's most essential stories are hidden in plain view—whether in places we might drive by on our way to work, holidays such as Juneteenth, or entire neighborhoods like downtown Manhattan, where the brutal history of the trade in enslaved men, women, and children has been deeply imprinted. Informed by scholarship and brought to life by the story of people living today, Smith's debut work of nonfiction is a landmark of reflection and insight that offers a new understanding of the hopeful role that memory and history can play in making sense of our country and how it has come to be. Winner of the National Book Critics Circle Award for Nonfiction Winner of the Stowe Prize Winner of 2022 Hillman Prize for Book Journalism A New York Times 10 Best Books of 2021
Download or read book House Reckoning written by Michael Lawson and published by Grove Press. This book was released on 2014 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Twenty years after DeMarco's father was murdered, a former mob associate, on his deathbed succumbing to cancer, wants to make a confession about the killer in the continuation of the series following House Blood.
Download or read book Risk Savvy written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk-taking is essential for innovation, fun, and the courage to face the uncertainties in life. Yet for many important decisions, we're often presented with statistics and probabilities that we don't really understand and we inevitably rely on experts in the relevant fields. But what if they don't quite understand the way the information is presented either? This entertaining book shows us how to recognize when we don't have all the information and know what to do about it. Gerd Gigerenzer looks at examples from every aspect of life to identify the reasons for our collective misunderstanding of the risks we face. He shows how we can all use simple rules to avoid being manipulated into unrealistic fears or hopes, to make better-informed decisions, and to learn to understand risk and uncertainty in our own lives.
Book Synopsis Lolita in the Afterlife by : Jenny Minton Quigley
Download or read book Lolita in the Afterlife written by Jenny Minton Quigley and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2021-03-16 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A vibrant collection of sharp and essential modern pieces on Vladimir Nabokov’s perennially provocative book—with original contributions from a stellar cast of prominent twenty-first century writers. In 1958, Vladimir Nabokov’s Lolita was published in the United States to immediate controversy and bestsellerdom. More than sixty years later, this phenomenal novel generates as much buzz as it did when originally published. Central to countless issues at the forefront of our national discourse—art and politics, race and whiteness, gender and power, sexual trauma—Lolita lives on, in an afterlife as blinding as a supernova. Lolita in the Afterlife is edited by the daughter of Lolita’s original publisher in America. WITH CONTRIBUTIONS BY Robin Givhan • Aleksandar Hemon • Jim Shepard • Emily Mortimer • Laura Lippman • Erika L. Sánchez • Sarah Weinman • Andre Dubus III • Mary Gaitskill • Zainab Salbi • Christina Baker Kline • Ian Frazier • Cheryl Strayed • Sloane Crosley • Victor LaValle • Jill Kargman • Lila Azam Zanganeh • Roxane Gay • Claire Dederer • Jessica Shattuck • Stacy Schiff • Susan Choi • Kate Elizabeth Russell • Tom Bissell • Kira Von Eichel • Bindu Bansinath • Dani Shapiro • Alexander Chee • Lauren Groff • Morgan Jerkins
Download or read book Dead Reckoning written by Ronie Kendig and published by Abingdon Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INSPY Award Finalist When underwater archaeologist Shiloh Blake finds herself in the middle of an international nuclear arms clash during her first large-scale dig, she flees for her life. Is the man trailing her an enemy or a protector sent by her CIA father? Whoever he is, the only way to prevent a nuclear meltdown means joining forces with this mystery man. Will Shiloh violate her vow to never become involved in her father's web of intrigue and mystery? Will she reconcile with her past and with him? Will she allow God to help her through this ordeal of danger, mistrust, and uncertainty?
Book Synopsis Generations at Risk by : Ted Schettler
Download or read book Generations at Risk written by Ted Schettler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Compelling evidence suggests that human exposure to some toxic chemicals can have lifelong and even intergenerational effects on reproduction and development. Generations at Risk presents compelling evidence that human exposure to some toxic chemicals can have lifelong and even intergenerational effects on human reproduction and development. The result of a collaboration involving public health professionals, physicians, environmental educators, and policy advocates, this book examines how scientific, social, economic, and political systems may fail to protect us from environmental and occupational toxicants. It is an important sourcebook for those concerned about their own health and that of their loved ones, as well as for medical and public health workers, community activists, policymakers, and industrial decision makers.
Book Synopsis The Final Reckoning by : Robin Jarvis
Download or read book The Final Reckoning written by Robin Jarvis and published by Chronicle Books. This book was released on 2002-07 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Deptford Mice and their allies rush once again into battle with old enemies, grown much more powerful, as a devastatingly cold winter threatens to keep the Green Mouse from returning in the spring.
Download or read book Carolina Reckoning written by Lisa Carter and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2013-08-06 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When 30-something housewife, Alison Monaghan discovers proof of her husband's infidelity in a photograph with a mysterious woman, she must decide how to confront Frank when he returns home from work. Despite the influence of her best friend Valerie, a strong Christian, Alison remains aloof from God and is determined to handle this crisis her own way. But Alison may not get that chance. Frank never makes it home. Soon his body is found on a lonely back-country road in antebellum Weathersby Historic Park where Frank served on the board of directors and where Alison, with a degree in landscape design, was a volunteer garden docent. Homicide detective Mike Barefoot, a Cherokee native from the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina, immediately puts Alison at the top of his suspect list. He finds himself drawn to her--and not just because she had motive for the crime. As an army veteran, Mike usually keeps his emotional walls high. And as a detective, he knows not to get involved with murder suspects. So why he is so attracted to Alison? Can he fight his feelings for her--and the stirrings in his heart toward God?
Book Synopsis Winter's Reckoning by : Adele Holmes, M.D.
Download or read book Winter's Reckoning written by Adele Holmes, M.D. and published by She Writes Press. This book was released on 2022-08-09 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: William Faulkner Literary Competition, Honorable Mention Forty-six-year-old Madeline Fairbanks has no use for ideas like “separation of the races” or “men as the superior sex.” There are many in her dying Southern Appalachian town who are upset by her socially progressive views, but for years—partly due to her late husband’s still-powerful influence, and partly due to her skill as a healer in a remote town with no doctor of its own—folks have been willing to turn a blind eye to her “transgressions.” Even Maddie’s decision to take on a Black apprentice, Ren Morgan, goes largely unchallenged by her white neighbors, though it’s certainly grumbled about. But when a charismatic and power-hungry new reverend blows into town in 1917 and begins to preach about the importance of racial segregation, the long-idle local KKK chapter fires back into action—and places Maddie and her friends in Jamesville’s Black community squarely in their sights. Maddie had better stop intermingling with Black folks, discontinue her herbalistic “witchcraft,” and leave town immediately, they threaten, or they’ll lynch Ren’s father, Daniel. Faced with this decision, Maddie is terrified . . . and torn. Will she bow to their demands and walk away—or will she fight to keep the home she’s built in Jamesville and protect the future of the people she loves, both Black and white?
Download or read book Reckoning written by Linda Hirshman and published by Houghton Mifflin. This book was released on 2019 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first history--incisive, witty, fascinating--of the fight against sexual harassment, from the author of the New York Times bestseller Sisters in Law Linda Hirshman, acclaimed historian of social movements, delivers the sweeping story of the struggle leading up to #MeToo and beyond: from the first tales of workplace harassment percolating to the surface in the 1970s, to the Clinton/Lewinsky scandal--when liberal women largely forgave Clinton, giving men a free pass for two decades. Many liberals even resisted the movement to end rape on campus. And yet, legal, political, and cultural efforts, often spearheaded by women of color, were quietly paving the way for the takedown of abusers and harassers. Reckoning delivers the stirring tale of a movement catching fire as pioneering women in the media exposed the Harvey Weinsteins of the world, women flooded the political landscape, and the walls of male privilege finally began to crack. This is revelatory, essential social history.
