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Real Time Forecasts Of Economic Activity For Latin American Economies
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Book Synopsis Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies by : Mr.Philip Liu
Download or read book Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies written by Mr.Philip Liu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.
Book Synopsis Semiannual Report of the Latin America And Caribbean Region Fall, 2020 by : World Bank
Download or read book Semiannual Report of the Latin America And Caribbean Region Fall, 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-10-09 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Latin America and the Caribbean was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, which arrived on the back of years of disappointing economic growth and limited social progress, and after a wave of social unrest. This report reviews the impacts of the crisis as well as the policy responses by countries, which often involved sizeable social transfers. It also presents growth forecasts, and quarterly growth estimates based on satellite imagery. With countries experiencing a diverse mix of health costs and economic costs, the report analyzes how the effectiveness of containment policies, and their impact on economic activity, differ between richer and poorer countries. It also assesses the cost of staying healthy in normal times, showing how it is affected by the structure of the domestic pharmaceutical sector and by the effectiveness of public procurement of medicines. As the region may have to live with the virus for a while, four policy directions are proposed for discussion.
Book Synopsis The Economy in the Time of Covid-19 by : World Bank
Download or read book The Economy in the Time of Covid-19 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-04-12 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a period of rapid economic growth associated with high commodity prices, the region had entered a phase of lackluster performance. Recent developments, including a new oil price shock, and the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic will push the region into recession. Many countries are struggling to contain the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic while avoiding a dramatic decline in economic activity. The report analyzes how to think about this tradeoff. It estimates the potential health costs, assesses the effectiveness of diverse containment strategies, and discusses how large the economic cost could be. The current crisis is unprecedented because it combines a fall in global demand, tighter financial conditions and a major supply shock. The response needs to consider how to socialize the losses, how to prevent a collapse of the financial sector, how to protect jobs and livelihoods, and how to manage and divest the assets that will inevitably end up in the hands of the state.
Book Synopsis Latin American Economic Outlook 2019 Development in Transition by : OECD
Download or read book Latin American Economic Outlook 2019 Development in Transition written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2019-09-27 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Latin American Economic Outlook 2019: Development in Transition (LEO 2019) presents a fresh analytical approach in the region. It assesses four development traps relating to productivity, social vulnerability, institutions and the environment.
Book Synopsis The Use of High-frequency Indicators in Short-term Forecasting Models: The Case of Latin American and Caribbean Countries by : Sandra Manuelito
Download or read book The Use of High-frequency Indicators in Short-term Forecasting Models: The Case of Latin American and Caribbean Countries written by Sandra Manuelito and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of sound and accurate early estimates of economic activity is of utmost importance to national economic authorities at the time of the decision-making process, and to the various agents involved in the economic analysis and follow up of the short-term economic prospects. In this context, the availability of short-term forecasts for quarterly GDP growth rates becomes highly relevant. In Latin America and the Caribbean an increasing amount of countries is producing high frequency economic data, and there has been an increasing interest by national authorities to use this data to improve economic analyses and short-term economic forecasts. This article discusses the use of the now casting methodology applied to Latin American and Caribbean countries with the objective of generating more accurate quarterly GDP growth forecasts. The results show that, for the short-term, this methodology produces accurate and reliable estimates although results at the country level depend very much on the amount and quality of the data available, as well as on its timeliness.
Book Synopsis Latin American Economic Outlook 2020 Digital Transformation for Building Back Better by : OECD
Download or read book Latin American Economic Outlook 2020 Digital Transformation for Building Back Better written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2020-09-24 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Latin American Economic Outlook (LEO) 2020 focuses on the role of digital transformation in helping to navigate through challenging times. The Covid-19 pandemic is having a profound impact on socio-economic conditions, accentuating the already complex scenario faced by a region with significant structural weaknesses. This unprecedented crisis comes at a time of high aspirations and reinforces the need to transform the very foundations of the development model in the region.
Book Synopsis Latin American Economic Outlook 2021 Working Together for a Better Recovery by : OECD
Download or read book Latin American Economic Outlook 2021 Working Together for a Better Recovery written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2021-12-02 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Latin American Economic Outlook 2021: Working Together for a Better Recovery aims to analyse and provide policy recommendations for a strong, inclusive and environmentally sustainable recovery in the region. The report explores policy actions to improve social protection mechanisms and increase social inclusion, foster regional integration and strengthen industrial strategies, and rethink the social contract to restore trust and empower citizens at all stages of the policy‐making process.
Book Synopsis Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy by : Francesco Grigoli
Download or read book Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-23 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484359798 Total Pages :79 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis El Salvador by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book El Salvador written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-07 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.
Book Synopsis Latin American Economic Outlook 2023 Investing in Sustainable Development by : OECD
Download or read book Latin American Economic Outlook 2023 Investing in Sustainable Development written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2023-12-15 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Latin America and the Caribbean needs an ambitious and comprehensive investment agenda to embark on a stronger and more sustainable development trajectory. The 16th edition of the Latin American Economic Outlook proposes ways to make this possible through co-ordinated actions by policy makers, the private sector and international partners.
Book Synopsis Latin American Economic Outlook 2022 Towards a Green and Just Transition by : OECD
Download or read book Latin American Economic Outlook 2022 Towards a Green and Just Transition written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2022-11-07 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What challenges and opportunities does the green transition entail for Latin America and the Caribbean? This 15th edition of the Latin American Economic Outlook explores options for the region to recast its production models, transform its energy matrix and create better jobs in the process.
Book Synopsis Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic? by : Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
Download or read book Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic? written by Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-04 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most countries, there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio (though there may be for the components); (ii) fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries over time, albeit they have worsened for others; (iii) in terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; (v) lastly, budget balance rules seem to help contain the size of the fiscal forecast errors.
Book Synopsis Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition by :
Download or read book Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 1193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Theoretical Economics. The editors have built Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Theoretical Economics in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.
Author :UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE. CARIBBEAN Publisher : ISBN 13 :9789211220735 Total Pages :170 pages Book Rating :4.2/5 (27 download)
Book Synopsis Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2021 by : UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE. CARIBBEAN
Download or read book Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2021 written by UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE. CARIBBEAN and published by . This book was released on 2021-11 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document examines the global and regional evolution of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and offers recommendations so these flows can contribute to the region's productive development processes.
Book Synopsis Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary India by : Bruno S. Sergi
Download or read book Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary India written by Bruno S. Sergi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2024-07-22 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on core topics of economic disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic: changes in socio-cultural relationships, behavioural patterns and psychological attitudes governing human interaction, and government policies to stabilize the Indian economy and contribute to sustainable growth.
Book Synopsis Analyses and Projections of Economic Development by : United Nations. Economic Commission for Latin America
Download or read book Analyses and Projections of Economic Development written by United Nations. Economic Commission for Latin America and published by . This book was released on 1955 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Economies of Latin America by : Cesar Yanez
Download or read book The Economies of Latin America written by Cesar Yanez and published by . This book was released on 2016-01-20 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic backwardness of Latin America and the Caribbean has long been discussed, but seldom been the subject of such a wide-ranging quantitative study. The twelve essays in this collection present a twenty-first-century analysis of a long-term issue, providing extensive geographical coverage and allowing reinterpretations of the past.
