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Real Time Estimation Of Trend Output And The Illusion Of Interest Rate Smoothing
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Book Synopsis Real-Time Estimation of Trend Output and the Illusion of Interest Rate Smoothing by : Kevin J. Lansing
Download or read book Real-Time Estimation of Trend Output and the Illusion of Interest Rate Smoothing written by Kevin J. Lansing and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical estimates of the Federal Reserve's policy rule typically find that the regression coefficient on the lagged federal funds rate is around 0.8 and strongly significant. One economic interpretation of this result is that the Fed intentionally "smoothes" interest rates, i.e., policymakers move gradually over time to bring the current level of the funds rate in line with a desired level that is determined by consideration of recent economic data. This paper develops a small forward-looking macroeconomic model where the Federal Reserve estimates the level of trend (or potential) output in real time by running a regression on past output data. Using the model as a data-generating mechanism, I show that efforts to identify the Fed's policy rule using final data (as opposed to real-time data) can create the illusion of interest rate smoothing behavior when in fact none exists. In particular, I show that the lagged federal funds rate can enter spuriously in final-data policy rule regressions because it helps pick up the Fed's serially correlated real-time measurement errors which are not taken into account by the standard estimation procedure. In model simulations, I find that this misspecification problem can explain as much as one-half of the apparent degree of "inertia" or "partial adjustment" in the U.S. federal funds rate.
Book Synopsis Monetary Theory and Policy, third edition by : Carl E. Walsh
Download or read book Monetary Theory and Policy, third edition written by Carl E. Walsh and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2010-02-12 with total page 639 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new edition of the leading text in monetary economics, a comprehensive treatment revised and enhanced with new material reflecting recent advances in the field. This text presents a comprehensive treatment of the most important topics in monetary economics, focusing on the primary models monetary economists have employed to address topics in theory and policy. It covers the basic theoretical approaches, shows how to do simulation work with the models, and discusses the full range of frictions that economists have studied to understand the impacts of monetary policy. Among the topics presented are money-in-the-utility function, cash-in-advance, and search models of money; informational, portfolio, and nominal rigidities; credit frictions; the open economy; and issues of monetary policy, including discretion and commitment, policy analysis in new Keynesian models, and monetary operating procedures. The use of models based on dynamic optimization and nominal rigidities in consistent general equilibrium frameworks, relatively new when introduced to students in the first edition of this popular text, has since become the method of choice of monetary policy analysis. This third edition reflects the latest advances in the field, incorporating new or expanded material on such topics as monetary search equilibria, sticky information, adaptive learning, state-contingent pricing models, and channel systems for implementing monetary policy. Much of the material on policy analysis has been reorganized to reflect the dominance of the new Keynesian approach. Monetary Theory and Policy continues to be the only comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of monetary economics, not only the leading text in the field but also the standard reference for academics and central bank researchers.
Book Synopsis Monetary Theory and Policy, fourth edition by : Carl E. Walsh
Download or read book Monetary Theory and Policy, fourth edition written by Carl E. Walsh and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-05-12 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The new edition of a comprehensive treatment of monetary economics, including the first extensive coverage of the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. This textbook presents a comprehensive treatment of the most important topics in monetary economics, focusing on the primary models monetary economists have employed to address topics in theory and policy. Striking a balance of insight, accessibility, and rigor, the book covers the basic theoretical approaches, shows how to do simulation work with the models, and discusses the full range of frictions that economists have studied to understand the impacts of monetary policy. For the fourth edition, every chapter has been revised to improve the exposition and to reflect recent research. The new edition offers an entirely new chapter on the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates, forward guidance policies, and quantitative and credit easing policies. Material on the basic new Keynesian model has been reorganized into a single chapter to provide a comprehensive analysis of the model and its policy implications. In addition, the chapter on the open economy now reflects the dominance of the new Keynesian approach. Other new material includes discussions of price adjustment, labor market frictions and unemployment, and moral hazard frictions among financial intermediaries. References and end-of-chapter problems allow readers to extend their knowledge of the topics covered. Monetary Theory and Policy continues to be the most comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of monetary economics, not only the leading text in the field but also the standard reference for academics and central bank researchers.
Book Synopsis Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle by : Carl Chiarella
Download or read book Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle written by Carl Chiarella and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-10-27 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth by Chiarella and Flaschel (2000), this book is a key contribution to business cycle theory, setting out a disequilibrium approach with gradual adjustments of the key macroeconomic variables. Its analytic study of a deterministic model of economic activity, inflation and income distribution integrates elements in the tradition of Keynes, Metzler and Goodwin (KMG). After a qualitative analysis of the basic feedback mechanisms, the authors calibrate the KMG model to the stylized facts of the business cycle in the U.S. economy, and then undertake a detailed numerical investigation of the local and global dynamics generated by the model. Finally, topical issues in monetary policy are studied in small macromodels as well as for the KMG model by incorporating an estimated Taylor-type interest rate reaction function. The stability features of this enhanced model are also compared to those of the original KMG model.
Download or read book Economic Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monetary Theory and Policy by : Carl E. Walsh
Download or read book Monetary Theory and Policy written by Carl E. Walsh and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of recent theoretical and policy-related developments in monetary economics.
Book Synopsis Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics by : Christopher Adolph
Download or read book Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics written by Christopher Adolph and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-04-15 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most studies of the political economy of money focus on the laws protecting central banks from government interference; this book turns to the overlooked people who actually make monetary policy decisions. Using formal theory and statistical evidence from dozens of central banks across the developed and developing worlds, this book shows that monetary policy agents are not all the same. Molded by specific professional and sectoral backgrounds and driven by career concerns, central bankers with different career trajectories choose predictably different monetary policies. These differences undermine the widespread belief that central bank independence is a neutral solution for macroeconomic management. Instead, through careful selection and retention of central bankers, partisan governments can and do influence monetary policy - preserving a political trade-off between inflation and real economic performance even in an age of legally independent central banks.
Download or read book Business Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2002:2 by : George L. Perry
Download or read book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2002:2 written by George L. Perry and published by . This book was released on 2003-01-16 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the 1970s, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) has provided academic and business economists, government officials and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues.
Book Synopsis The Taylor Rule and Its Implications by : Katkate Bunnag
Download or read book The Taylor Rule and Its Implications written by Katkate Bunnag and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Learning about a Shift in Trend Output by : Kevin J. Lansing
Download or read book Learning about a Shift in Trend Output written by Kevin J. Lansing and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Do Inflation Targeting Central Banks Behave Asymmetrically? by : Özer Karagedikli
Download or read book Do Inflation Targeting Central Banks Behave Asymmetrically? written by Özer Karagedikli and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Periodicals Index written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 2358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Survey of Literature on Demand for Money by : Mr.Subramanian S. Sriram
Download or read book Survey of Literature on Demand for Money written by Mr.Subramanian S. Sriram and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-05-01 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A stable money demand forms the cornerstone in formulating and conducting monetary policy. Consequently, numerous theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted in both industrial and developing countries to evaluate the determinants and the stability of the money demand function. This paper briefly reviews the theoretical work, tracing the contributions of several researchers beginning from the classical economists, and explains relevant empirical issues in modeling and estimating money demand functions. Notably, it summarizes the salient features of a number of recent studies that applied cointegration/error-correction models in the 1990s, and it features a bibliography to aid in research on demand for money.
Book Synopsis General Business and Agricultural Conditions in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District by :
Download or read book General Business and Agricultural Conditions in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Asset Price Bubbles by : William Curt Hunter
Download or read book Asset Price Bubbles written by William Curt Hunter and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.
