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Quantifying The Uncertainty In Estimates Of World Conventional Oil Resources
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Book Synopsis Quantifying the Uncertainty in Estimates of World Conventional Oil Resources by : Chih-Ming Tien
Download or read book Quantifying the Uncertainty in Estimates of World Conventional Oil Resources written by Chih-Ming Tien and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since Hubbert proposed the "peak oil" concept to forecast ultimate recovery of crude oil for the U.S. and the world, there have been countless debates over the timing of peak world conventional oil production rate and ultimate recovery. From review of the literature, forecasts were grouped into those that are like Hubbert's with an imminent peak, and those that do not predict an imminent peak. Both groups have bases for their positions. Viewpoints from the two groups are polarized and the rhetoric is pointed and sometimes personal. A big reason for the large divide between the two groups is the failure of both to acknowledge the significant uncertainty in their estimates. Although some authors attempt to quantify uncertainty, most use deterministic methods and present single values, with no ranges. This research proposes that those that do attempt to quantify uncertainty underestimate it significantly. The objective of this thesis is to rigorously quantify the uncertainty in estimates of ultimate world conventional oil production and time to peak rate. Two different methodologies are used. The first is a regression technique based on historical production data using Hubbert's model and the other methodology uses mathematical models. However, I conduct the analysis probabilistically, considering errors in both the data and the model, which results in likelihood probability distributions for world conventional oil production and time to peak rate. In the second method, I use a multiple-experts analysis to combine estimates from the multitude of papers presented in the literature, yielding an overall distribution of estimated world conventional oil production. Giving due consideration to uncertainty, Hubbert-type mathematical modeling results in large uncertainty ranges that encompass both groups of forecasts (imminent peak and no imminent peak). These ranges are consistent with those from the multiple-experts analysis. In short, the industry does not have enough information at this time to say with any reliability what the ultimate world conventional oil production will be. It could peak soon, somewhere in the distant future, or somewhere in between. It would be wise to consider all of these possible outcomes in planning and making decisions regarding capital investment and formulation of energy policy.
Book Synopsis OUR FRAGILE WORLD: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Development - Volume I by : M. K. Tolba
Download or read book OUR FRAGILE WORLD: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Development - Volume I written by M. K. Tolba and published by EOLSS Publications. This book was released on 2001-08-23 with total page 1183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication, Our Fragile World: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Development, presents perspectives of several important subjects that are covered in greater detail and depth in the Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS). The contributions to the two volumes provide an integrated presentation of knowledge and worldviews related to the state of: Earth's natural resources, social resources, institutional resources, and economic and financial resources. They present the vision and thinking of over 200 authors in support of efforts to solve the complex problems connected with sustainable development, and to secure perennial life support on "The Blue Planet'. These contributions are holistic, informative, forward looking, and will be of interest to a broad readership. This volume presents contributions with focus on the Natural and Social Dimensions of sustainable Development in to two sections: NATURAL SYSTEMS AND RESOURCES (Natural Systems and Climate Change ; - Natural Resources Management). - SOCIO-CULTURAL ISSUES (Human Security, Peace, and Socio-Cultural issues; Equity and Ethical issues).
Book Synopsis Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems by : Céline Scheidt
Download or read book Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems written by Céline Scheidt and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-04-27 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Under the Earth’s surface is a rich array of geological resources, many with potential use to humankind. However, extracting and harnessing them comes with enormous uncertainties, high costs, and considerable risks. The valuation of subsurface resources involves assessing discordant factors to produce a decision model that is functional and sustainable. This volume provides real-world examples relating to oilfields, geothermal systems, contaminated sites, and aquifer recharge. Volume highlights include: • A multi-disciplinary treatment of uncertainty quantification • Case studies with actual data that will appeal to methodology developers • A Bayesian evidential learning framework that reduces computation and modeling time Quantifying Uncertainty in Subsurface Systems is a multidisciplinary volume that brings together five major fields: information science, decision science, geosciences, data science and computer science. It will appeal to both students and practitioners, and be a valuable resource for geoscientists, engineers and applied mathematicians. Read the Editors’ Vox: https://eos.org/editors-vox/quantifying-uncertainty-about-earths-resources
Book Synopsis Are We Running Out of Oil? by : Edward Porter
Download or read book Are We Running Out of Oil? written by Edward Porter and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Our Fragile World by : Mostafa Kamal Tolba
Download or read book Our Fragile World written by Mostafa Kamal Tolba and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 1192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Greenhouse Gas Protocol written by and published by World Business Pub.. This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The GHG Protocol Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard helps companies and other organizations to identify, calculate, and report GHG emissions. It is designed to set the standard for accurate, complete, consistent, relevant and transparent accounting and reporting of GHG emissions.
Book Synopsis The Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology by :
Download or read book The Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Analysis and Reservoir Modeling by : Y. Zee Ma
Download or read book Uncertainty Analysis and Reservoir Modeling written by Y. Zee Ma and published by AAPG. This book was released on 2011-12-20 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Handbook of Oil Politics by : Robert Looney
Download or read book Handbook of Oil Politics written by Robert Looney and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-01-25 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To many, oil markets and their linkages to a whole spectrum of events remain something of a mystery. Unfortunately, most of the easily obtained information on oil is deeply flawed. Whole web-conspiracy sites depict ruthless insiders and reckless dictators manipulating energy markets at will. The 30 essays in this volume, written by the leading experts in the field, attempt to set the record straight. While their assessments may lack the sensationalism of many popular pundits, serious readers will find their insights invaluable in the years to come in providing a framework for understanding many of the events of the day. The five sections: Politics of Oil Supply, Political Responses, Regional Dimensions, Country Case Studies and Key Issues for the Future give a comprehensive overview of the politics of oil world-wide.
Book Synopsis Macmillan Encyclopedia of Energy by : John Zumerchik
Download or read book Macmillan Encyclopedia of Energy written by John Zumerchik and published by MacMillan Publishing Company. This book was released on 2001 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents cross-referenced, alphabetical entries on energy and related problems; topics covered represent various disciplines, and entries contain bibliographies, diagrams, maps, and photos. This volume covers "Office Equipment" through "Z-pinch" and includes a time line and an index.
Download or read book Petroleum Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 704 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Peak Oil Debate written by Laurel Graefe and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-04 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the past half-century, a debate has raged over when ¿peak oil¿ will occur ¿ the point at which output can no longer increase and production begins to level off or gradually decline. Determining how long the oil supply will last has become even more pressing because the world¿s energy supply still relies heavily on oil, and global energy demand is expected to rise steeply over the next twenty years. This article seeks to bring the peak oil debate into focus. The author provides definitions of frequently used terms, delineating types of reserves and conventional versus non-conventional resources. She also discusses how technological innovations, gov¿t. policies, and prices influence oil production. Illus. A print on demand report.
Book Synopsis 2004 Survey of Energy Resources by : Judy Trinnaman
Download or read book 2004 Survey of Energy Resources written by Judy Trinnaman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2004-09-23 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: * Clear and concise, information is analysed and presented in both a resource-by-resource and country-by-country approach * Comprehensive, the outlook for seventeen energy resources including all major fossil and renewable resources is evaluated* Free CD-Rom will help electronic navigation of this comprehensive resource The Survey of Energy Resources (SER) is a unique and authoritative publication produced by the World Energy Council every three years, since 1934. SER presents a comprehensive global picture of resource availability, production and consumption levels, technological developments and outlook for seventeen energy resources, including all major fossil and renewable resources. Each resource is covered in a separate chapter which comprises a commentary by a leading expert in the field, data tables and country notes. The information contained is the best available from a wide variety of sources. The SER is published every three years in line with WEC’s work cycle, culminating in publication at the World Energy Congress. The 20th edition of SER will be published at the time of the 19th World Energy Congress (Sydney, September 2004). * Provides global and country specific comprehensive information and data* Provides authoritative information in a compact and user-friendly format * Best available data from a wide variety of sources
Download or read book World Energy Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 700 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The APPEA Journal written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 1112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Evaluating the Calibration of Multi-step-ahead Density Forecasts Using Raw Moments by : Malte Knüppel
Download or read book Evaluating the Calibration of Multi-step-ahead Density Forecasts Using Raw Moments written by Malte Knüppel and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Linkages of Sustainability by : T. E. Graedel
Download or read book Linkages of Sustainability written by T. E. Graedel and published by Strungmann Forum Reports. This book was released on 2010 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, experts engage in an extended dialogue arguing for a comprehensive view of sustainability. They emphasize the constraints imposed by the relationships among the components, for example, how the need for clean, easily accessible water intersects with the need for the energy required to provide it. This book urges a transformation in the way we view sustainability, a transformation that is necessary if we are to plan responsibly for a more sustainable world.--[book jacket].
