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Professional Vs Amateur Judgment Accuracy
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Book Synopsis Professional vs Amateur Judgment Accuracy by : J. Frank Yates
Download or read book Professional vs Amateur Judgment Accuracy written by J. Frank Yates and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Highly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the ''processperformance paradox.'' The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made one-day and one-week-ahead FX predictions in deterministic and probabilistic formats. Among the conclusions indicated by the results are: (a) professional accuracy usually surpasses amateur accuracy, although many amateurs outperform many professionals; (b) professionals appear to achieve high proficiency via heavy reliance on predictive information (unlike what has been observed before, e.g., for stock prices); (c) forecast format strongly affects judgment accuracy and processes; and (d) apparent overconfidence can transform itself into underconfidence depending on when and how forecasters must articulate their confidence.
Book Synopsis The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set by : Gideon Keren
Download or read book The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set written by Gideon Keren and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-16 with total page 1056 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes
Book Synopsis Trusting Judgements by : Mark A. Burgman
Download or read book Trusting Judgements written by Mark A. Burgman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-10-26 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made.
Book Synopsis Tools and Techniques for Economic Decision Analysis by : Stankovi?, Jelena
Download or read book Tools and Techniques for Economic Decision Analysis written by Stankovi?, Jelena and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2016-10-31 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The success of any business relies heavily on the evaluation and improvement on current strategies and processes. Such progress can be facilitated by implementing more effective decision-making systems. Tools and Techniques for Economic Decision Analysis provides a thorough overview of decision models and methodologies in the context of business economics. Highlighting a variety of relevant issues on finance, economic policy, and firms and networks, this book is an ideal reference source for managers, professionals, students, and academics interested in emerging developments for decision analysis.
Book Synopsis Social Metacognition by : Pablo Briñol
Download or read book Social Metacognition written by Pablo Briñol and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2012-04-27 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Metacognition refers to thinking about our own thinking. It has assumed a prominent role in social judgment because our thoughts about our thoughts can magnify, attenuate, or even reverse the impact of primary cognition. Metacognitive thoughts can also produce changes in thought, feeling, and behavior, and thus are critical for a complete understanding of human social behavior. The present volume presents the most important and advanced research areas in social psychology where the role of metacognition has been studied. Specifically, the chapters of this book are organized into four substantive content areas: Attitudes and Decision Making, Self and Identity, Experiential, and Interpersonal. Each section consists in several chapters summarizing much of the work done in recent decades on critical topics, such as attitude strength, persuasion, bias correction, self-regulation, subjective feelings, embodiment, and prejudice, among others. This book also emphasizes interpersonal aspects of metacognition as they play an essential role in close relationships, groups, consumer and clinical interactions. Each chapter is written by an expert in the field, and presents a state-of-the-art view of the many ways metacognition has been examined by social psychologists.
Book Synopsis Systems of Psychotherapy by : James O. Prochaska
Download or read book Systems of Psychotherapy written by James O. Prochaska and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024-06-07 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive, systematic, and balanced, Systems of Psychotherapy uses a wealth of clinical cases to help readers understand the major psychotherapies, including psychodynamic, existential, experiential, interpersonal, exposure, behavioral, cognitive, third wave, systemic, multicultural, and integrative. The tenth edition of this landmark text thoroughly analyzes 15 leading systems of psychotherapy and briefly surveys another 32, providing students and practitioners with a broad overview of the discipline. The book explores each system's theory of personality, theory of psychopathology, and resulting therapeutic process and relationship. Through these explorations, the authors clearly demonstrate how psychotherapy systems agree on the processes producing change while diverging on the elements in need of change. Additionally, the authors present the central limitations, outcome research, and future directions of each system of psychotherapy. This tenth edition features a reconfigured chapter on positive psychological treatments, expanded coverage of the Unified Protocol and transdiagnostic personalizing, new self-reflection exercises, additional examples of child and adolescent therapy, and more than 500 new references, recommended readings, and web resources.
Book Synopsis Becoming a Talent Magnet by : Morris
Download or read book Becoming a Talent Magnet written by Morris and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023-12 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Becoming a Talent Magnet is a book intended for HR generalists and professionals across the talent and recruiting space who wish to develop or elevate their programs and processes. It offers strategic guidance, research-based advice, concrete actions, concepts, and tips from senior level practitioners who have led and built these programs at cutting edge companies. This rich set of practical tools is supplemented by a healthy dose of thought leadership from top I/O psychologists who weave in the latest organizational science. Each chapter can stand alone, so the book can be consumed selectively in modules, depending on the needs of the user.
Book Synopsis Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2 by : National Research Council
Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2 written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-07-02 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing. The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.
Book Synopsis Routledge International Handbook of Golf Science by : Martin Toms
Download or read book Routledge International Handbook of Golf Science written by Martin Toms and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-10-23 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Golf is one of the world’s major sports and consequently the focus of world-class scientific research. This landmark publication is the most comprehensive book ever published on the science of golf, covering every sub-discipline from physiology, biomechanics and psychology to strength and conditioning, youth development and equipment design. Showcasing original research from leading golf scientists across the globe, it examines the fundamental science underpinning the game and demonstrates how it can be applied in practice to improve and develop players. Each chapter provides a definitive account of the current state of knowledge in a particular area of golf science, addressing the limitations of existing research, presenting new areas for development and discussing the implications for coaches, players, scientists and the wider golfing public. Truly international in scope, the variety of topics explored include: biomechanics and equipment skill learning and technology performance development psychological techniques for success the golfing body. This is an essential reference for any student or researcher with an interest in the game, or any coach or professional looking to improve their knowledge.
Book Synopsis Family Interventions in Domestic Violence by : John Hamel, LCSW
Download or read book Family Interventions in Domestic Violence written by John Hamel, LCSW and published by Springer Publishing Company. This book was released on 2006-09-26 with total page 695 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this exciting new book John Hamel, author of the ground-breaking Gender-Inclusive Treatment of Intimate Partner Abuse, and Tonia Nicholls go beyond the traditional intervention theories of domestic violence practiced today. Offering alternative, unbiased and sometimes controversial views, theories, and current research, they, along with renowned contributors in the field, provide new treatment options that encompass a wide range of gender dynamics. Here are just some of the key principles covered: Interventions Should Be Based on a Thorough Unbiased Assessment Victim/Perpetrator Distinctions are Overstated, and Much Partner Abuse is Mutual Regardless of Perpetrator Gender, Child Witnesses to Partner Abuse are Adversely Affected, and are at Risk for Perpetrating Partner Abuse as Adults This new gender-inclusive approach to assessment and intervention provides a significant departure from traditional paradigms of domestic violence, and offers a much-needed awareness to effectively prevent violence in our communities today and for future generations.
Book Synopsis Fooled by Randomness by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Download or read book Fooled by Randomness written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Editeurs divers USA. This book was released on 2016 with total page 1570 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don't understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes--Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material--are now together in one boxed set. ANTIFRAGILE "Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides."--The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we--especially the experts--are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS "[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church."--Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the markets--Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES "Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems."--Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.
Book Synopsis The Black Swan by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Download or read book The Black Swan written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House Digital, Inc.. This book was released on 2009-10-13 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.
Book Synopsis The Black Swan: Second Edition by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Download or read book The Black Swan: Second Edition written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House Trade Paperbacks. This book was released on 2010-05-11 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.” A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
Book Synopsis International Journal of forecasting by :
Download or read book International Journal of forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 810 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Professional Judgment for Lawyers by : Randall Kiser
Download or read book Professional Judgment for Lawyers written by Randall Kiser and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2023-07-01 with total page 475 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by the leading authority on legal decision making, Professional Judgment for Lawyers integrates empirical legal research, cognitive and social psychology, organizational behavior, legal ethics, and neuroscience to understand and improve decision making by attorneys, clients, judges, arbitrators, mediators, and juries.
Book Synopsis Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies by : National Research Council
Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-01-15 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.
Download or read book Incerto written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by Random House Trade. This book was released on 2021-05-04 with total page 1873 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The landmark five-book series--all together in one boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don't understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME
