Probabilistic Thinking

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The Great Mental Models, Volume 1

Author : Shane Parrish
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0593719972
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (937 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 by : Shane Parrish

Download or read book The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

Probabilistic Thinking

Author : Egan J. Chernoff
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 940077155X
Total Pages : 746 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Thinking by : Egan J. Chernoff

Download or read book Probabilistic Thinking written by Egan J. Chernoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-05 with total page 746 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides a necessary, current and extensive analysis of probabilistic thinking from a number of mathematicians, mathematics educators, and psychologists. The work of 58 contributing authors, investigating probabilistic thinking across the globe, is encapsulated in 6 prefaces, 29 chapters and 6 commentaries. Ultimately, the four main perspectives presented in this volume (Mathematics and Philosophy, Psychology, Stochastics and Mathematics Education) are designed to represent probabilistic thinking in a greater context.

Thinking Probabilistically

Author : Ariel Amir
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108479529
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking Probabilistically by : Ariel Amir

Download or read book Thinking Probabilistically written by Ariel Amir and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introductory text providing the reader with a thorough background to the rich world of applications of stochastic processes.

The Intuitive Sources of Probabilistic Thinking in Children

Author : H. Fischbein
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9027706263
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (277 download)

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Book Synopsis The Intuitive Sources of Probabilistic Thinking in Children by : H. Fischbein

Download or read book The Intuitive Sources of Probabilistic Thinking in Children written by H. Fischbein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1975-11-30 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About a year ago I promised my friend Fischbein a preface to his book of which I knew the French manuscript. Now with the printer's proofs under my eyes I like the book even better than I did then, because of, and influenced by, new experiences in the meantime, and fresh thoughts that crossed my mind. Have I been influenced by what I remembered from the manuscript? If so, it must have happened unconsciously. But of course, what struck me in this work a year ago, struck a responsive chord in my own mind. In the past, mathematics teaching theory has strongly been influenced by a view on mathematics as a heap of concepts, and on learning mathematics as concepts attainment. Mathematics teaching practice has been jeopardised by this theoretical approach, which in its most dangerous form expresses itself as a radical atomism. To concepts attainment Fischbein opposes acquisition of intuitions. In my own publications I avoided the word "intuition" because of the variety of its meanings across languages. For some time I have used the term "constitution of mathematical objects", which I think means the same as Fischbein's "acquisition of intuitions" - indeed as I view it, constituting a mental object precedes its conceptualising, and under this viewpoint I tried to observe mathematical activities of young children.

Embracing Uncertainty: The Revolutionary Science of Stress-Free Living Through Probabilistic Thinking

Author : Gaurav Garg
Publisher : Gaurav Garg
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 151 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Embracing Uncertainty: The Revolutionary Science of Stress-Free Living Through Probabilistic Thinking by : Gaurav Garg

Download or read book Embracing Uncertainty: The Revolutionary Science of Stress-Free Living Through Probabilistic Thinking written by Gaurav Garg and published by Gaurav Garg. This book was released on 2024-08-22 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world obsessed with certainty, this book dares to embrace the unknown. "Dancing with Uncertainty" isn't just a catchy title—it's a revolutionary approach to navigating the complexities of modern life. Within these pages, you'll discover how to harness the power of probabilistic thinking to make better decisions, manage risks, and find opportunities where others see only chaos. From the boardroom to the bedroom, from financial investments to personal relationships, this book will transform the way you view the world. Key concepts you'll explore include: The Probabilistic Mindset: Learn to see life as a series of probabilities rather than absolutes. The 60/40 Rule: A practical guide to decision-making in uncertain situations. Expected Value Calculations: Maximize your 'life ROI' by understanding the true value of your choices. The Monte Carlo Method: Simulate multiple futures to prepare for any outcome. Bayesian Thinking: Update your beliefs intelligently as new information comes to light. But this isn't just a dry textbook. It's filled with real-life examples, practical exercises, and even a dash of humor. You'll learn from poker players, stock traders, meteorologists, and everyday people who've used probabilistic thinking to achieve extraordinary results. "In an uncertain world, the only mistake is to be unprepared. This book is your guide to turning uncertainty into your greatest advantage." Whether you're a CEO making high-stakes decisions, a student planning your future, or simply someone looking to navigate life with more confidence, "Dancing with Uncertainty" offers a new lens through which to view the world. So, are you ready to embrace the power of probability? To see opportunities where others see only risk? To dance with uncertainty and lead a richer, more calculated life? Open this book, and take your first step into a larger, more probabilistic world.

The Intuitive Sources of Probabilistic Thinking in Children

Author : H. Fischbein
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401018588
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis The Intuitive Sources of Probabilistic Thinking in Children by : H. Fischbein

Download or read book The Intuitive Sources of Probabilistic Thinking in Children written by H. Fischbein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About a year ago I promised my friend Fischbein a preface to his book of which I knew the French manuscript. Now with the printer's proofs under my eyes I like the book even better than I did then, because of, and influenced by, new experiences in the meantime, and fresh thoughts that crossed my mind. Have I been influenced by what I remembered from the manuscript? If so, it must have happened unconsciously. But of course, what struck me in this work a year ago, struck a responsive chord in my own mind. In the past, mathematics teaching theory has strongly been influenced by a view on mathematics as a heap of concepts, and on learning mathematics as concepts attainment. Mathematics teaching practice has been jeopardised by this theoretical approach, which in its most dangerous form expresses itself as a radical atomism. To concepts attainment Fischbein opposes acquisition of intuitions. In my own publications I avoided the word "intuition" because of the variety of its meanings across languages. For some time I have used the term "constitution of mathematical objects", which I think means the same as Fischbein's "acquisition of intuitions" - indeed as I view it, constituting a mental object precedes its conceptualising, and under this viewpoint I tried to observe mathematical activities of young children.

Cognition and Chance

Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 113561461X
Total Pages : 798 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (356 download)

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Book Synopsis Cognition and Chance by : Raymond S. Nickerson

Download or read book Cognition and Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004-06-24 with total page 798 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

Probabilistic Thinking, Thermodynamics and the Interaction of the History and Philosophy of Science

Author : Jaakko Hintikka
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 940172766X
Total Pages : 379 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Thinking, Thermodynamics and the Interaction of the History and Philosophy of Science by : Jaakko Hintikka

Download or read book Probabilistic Thinking, Thermodynamics and the Interaction of the History and Philosophy of Science written by Jaakko Hintikka and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The two volumes to which this is apreface consist of the Proceedings of the Second International Conference on History and Philosophy of Science. The Conference was organized by the Joint Commission of the International Union of History and Philosophy of Science (IUHPS) under the auspices of the IUHPS, the Italian Society for Logic and Philosophy of Science, and the Domus Galilaeana of Pisa, headed by Professor Vincenzo Cappelletti. Domus Galilaeana also served as the host institution, with some help from the University of Pisa. The Conference took place in Pisa, Italy, on September 4-8, 1978. The editors of these two volumes of the Proceedings of the Pisa Conference acknowledge with gratitude the help by the different sponsoring organizations, and in the first place that by both Divisions of the IUHPS, which made the Conference possible. A special recognition is due to Professor Evandro Agazzi, President of the Italian Society for Logic and Philosophy of Science, who was co opted as an additional member of the Organizing Committee. This committee was otherwise identical with the Joint Commission, whose members were initially John Murdoch, John North, Arpad Szab6, Robert Butts, Jaakko Hintikka, and Vadim Sadovsky. Later, Erwin Hiebert and Lubos Novy were appointed as additional members.

Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number?

Author : Patrick Leach
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780964793859
Total Pages : 197 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (938 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number? by : Patrick Leach

Download or read book Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number? written by Patrick Leach and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making 101 for executives. A solid overview of the key decision analysis concepts sprinkled with pearls of wisdom and wry humor. Explains the language of risk, uncertainty, and decision making.

Exploring Probability in School

Author : Graham A. Jones
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780387245294
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (452 download)

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Book Synopsis Exploring Probability in School by : Graham A. Jones

Download or read book Exploring Probability in School written by Graham A. Jones and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-03-21 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exploring Probability in School provides a new perspective into research on the teaching and learning of probability. It creates this perspective by recognizing and analysing the special challenges faced by teachers and learners in contemporary classrooms where probability has recently become a mainstream part of the curriculum from early childhood through high school. The authors of the book discuss the nature of probability, look at the meaning of probabilistic literacy, and examine student access to powerful ideas in probability during the elementary, middle, and high school years. Moreover, they assemble and analyse research-based pedagogical knowledge for teachers that can enhance the learning of probability throughout these school years. With the book’s rich application of probability research to classroom practice, it will not only be essential reading for researchers and graduate students involved in probability education; it will also capture the interest of educational policy makers, curriculum personnel, teacher educators, and teachers.

Bayesian Rationality

Author : Mike Oaksford
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198524498
Total Pages : 342 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (985 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Rationality by : Mike Oaksford

Download or read book Bayesian Rationality written by Mike Oaksford and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2007-02-22 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.

Probabilistic Graphical Models

Author : Alexander Denev
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781782720973
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (29 download)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Graphical Models by : Alexander Denev

Download or read book Probabilistic Graphical Models written by Alexander Denev and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Research on Teaching and Learning Probability

Author : Carmen Batanero
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319316257
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (193 download)

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Book Synopsis Research on Teaching and Learning Probability by : Carmen Batanero

Download or read book Research on Teaching and Learning Probability written by Carmen Batanero and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-12 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book summarizes the vast amount of research related to teaching and learning probability that has been conducted for more than 50 years in a variety of disciplines. It begins with a synthesis of the most important probability interpretations throughout history: intuitive, classical, frequentist, subjective, logical propensity and axiomatic views. It discusses their possible applications, philosophical problems, as well as their potential and the level of interest they enjoy at different educational levels. Next, the book describes the main features of probabilistic thinking and reasoning, including the contrast to classical logic, probability language features, the role of intuitions, as well as paradoxes and the relevance of modeling. It presents an analysis of the differences between conditioning and causation, the variability expression in data as a sum of random and causal variations, as well as those of probabilistic versus statistical thinking. This is followed by an analysis of probability’s role and main presence in school curricula and an outline of the central expectations in recent curricular guidelines at the primary, secondary and high school level in several countries. This book classifies and discusses in detail the three different research periods on students’ and people’s intuitions and difficulties concerning probability: early research focused on cognitive development, a period of heuristics and biases programs, and the current period marked by a multitude of foci, approaches and theoretical frameworks.

The Probabilistic Method

Author : Noga Alon
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119062071
Total Pages : 396 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis The Probabilistic Method by : Noga Alon

Download or read book The Probabilistic Method written by Noga Alon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-02 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the Third Edition “Researchers of any kind of extremal combinatorics or theoretical computer science will welcome the new edition of this book.” - MAA Reviews Maintaining a standard of excellence that establishes The Probabilistic Method as the leading reference on probabilistic methods in combinatorics, the Fourth Edition continues to feature a clear writing style, illustrative examples, and illuminating exercises. The new edition includes numerous updates to reflect the most recent developments and advances in discrete mathematics and the connections to other areas in mathematics, theoretical computer science, and statistical physics. Emphasizing the methodology and techniques that enable problem-solving, The Probabilistic Method, Fourth Edition begins with a description of tools applied to probabilistic arguments, including basic techniques that use expectation and variance as well as the more advanced applications of martingales and correlation inequalities. The authors explore where probabilistic techniques have been applied successfully and also examine topical coverage such as discrepancy and random graphs, circuit complexity, computational geometry, and derandomization of randomized algorithms. Written by two well-known authorities in the field, the Fourth Edition features: Additional exercises throughout with hints and solutions to select problems in an appendix to help readers obtain a deeper understanding of the best methods and techniques New coverage on topics such as the Local Lemma, Six Standard Deviations result in Discrepancy Theory, Property B, and graph limits Updated sections to reflect major developments on the newest topics, discussions of the hypergraph container method, and many new references and improved results The Probabilistic Method, Fourth Edition is an ideal textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level students majoring in mathematics, computer science, operations research, and statistics. The Fourth Edition is also an excellent reference for researchers and combinatorists who use probabilistic methods, discrete mathematics, and number theory. Noga Alon, PhD, is Baumritter Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at Tel Aviv University. He is a member of the Israel National Academy of Sciences and Academia Europaea. A coeditor of the journal Random Structures and Algorithms, Dr. Alon is the recipient of the Polya Prize, The Gödel Prize, The Israel Prize, and the EMET Prize. Joel H. Spencer, PhD, is Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at the Courant Institute of New York University. He is the cofounder and coeditor of the journal Random Structures and Algorithms and is a Sloane Foundation Fellow. Dr. Spencer has written more than 200 published articles and is the coauthor of Ramsey Theory, Second Edition, also published by Wiley.

Probabilistic Machine Learning

Author : Kevin P. Murphy
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262369303
Total Pages : 858 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Machine Learning by : Kevin P. Murphy

Download or read book Probabilistic Machine Learning written by Kevin P. Murphy and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-03-01 with total page 858 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning, presented through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. This book offers a detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning (including deep learning) through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. The book covers mathematical background (including linear algebra and optimization), basic supervised learning (including linear and logistic regression and deep neural networks), as well as more advanced topics (including transfer learning and unsupervised learning). End-of-chapter exercises allow students to apply what they have learned, and an appendix covers notation. Probabilistic Machine Learning grew out of the author’s 2012 book, Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. More than just a simple update, this is a completely new book that reflects the dramatic developments in the field since 2012, most notably deep learning. In addition, the new book is accompanied by online Python code, using libraries such as scikit-learn, JAX, PyTorch, and Tensorflow, which can be used to reproduce nearly all the figures; this code can be run inside a web browser using cloud-based notebooks, and provides a practical complement to the theoretical topics discussed in the book. This introductory text will be followed by a sequel that covers more advanced topics, taking the same probabilistic approach.

The Probabilistic Revolution: Ideas in the sciences

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780262111188
Total Pages : 459 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (111 download)

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Book Synopsis The Probabilistic Revolution: Ideas in the sciences by :

Download or read book The Probabilistic Revolution: Ideas in the sciences written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 459 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs

Author : H. Jungermann
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401012768
Total Pages : 525 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs by : H. Jungermann

Download or read book Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs written by H. Jungermann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is only just recently that people have the tools to judge how well they are doing when making decisions. These tools were conceptualized in the seventeenth century. Since then many people have worked to sharpen the concepts, and to explore how these can be applied further. The problems of decision-making and the theory developed correspondingly have drawn the interest of mathematicians, psychologists, statisticians, economists, philosophers, organizational experts, sociologists, not only for their general relevance, but also for a more intrinsic fascination. There are quite a few institutionalized activities to disseminate results and stimulate research in decision-making. For about a decade now a European organizational structure, centered mainly around the psy chological interest in decision-making. There have been conferences in Hamburg, Amsterdam, Uxbridge, Rome and Darmstadt. Conference papers have been partly published+. The organization has thus stabilized, and its re latively long history makes it interesting to see what kind of developments occurred, within the area of interest.