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Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Update For Llnl
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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Update for LLNL. by :
Download or read book Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Update for LLNL. written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fugro Consultants, Inc. (FCL) completed the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) performed for Building 332 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), near Livermore, CA. The study performed for the LLNL site includes a comprehensive review of recent information relevant to the LLNL regional tectonic setting and regional seismic sources in the vicinity of the site and development of seismic wave transmission characteristics. The Seismic Source Characterization (SSC), documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-02 (FCL, 2015b), and Ground Motion Characterization (GMC), documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-06 (FCL, 2015a) were developed in accordance with ANS/ANSI 2.29- 2008 Level 2 PSHA guidelines. The ANS/ANSI 2.29-2008 Level 2 PSHA framework is documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-05 (FCL, 2016a). The Hazard Input Document (HID) for input into the PSHA developed from the SSC and GMC is presented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-04 (FCL, 2016b). The site characterization used as input for development of the idealized site profiles including epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability is presented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-03 (FCL, 2015c). The PSHA results are documented in Project Report No. 2259-PR-07 (FCL, 2016c).
Book Synopsis Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Codes Validation by :
Download or read book Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Codes Validation written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motion will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time-period. LLNL has been developing the methodology and codes in support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) needs for reviews of site licensing of nuclear power plants, since 1978. A number of existing computer codes have been validated and still can lead to ranges of hazard estimates in some cases. Until now, the seismic hazard community had not agreed on any specific method for evaluation of these codes. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) and the Pacific Engineering Earthquake Research (PEER) center organized an exercise in testing of existing codes with the aim of developing a series of standard tests that future developers could use to evaluate and calibrate their own codes. Seven code developers participated in the exercise, on a voluntary basis. Lawrence Livermore National laboratory participated with some support from the NRC. The final product of the study will include a series of criteria for judging of the validity of the results provided by a computer code. This EERI/PEER project was first planned to be completed by June of 2003. As the group neared completion of the tests, the managing team decided that new tests were necessary. As a result, the present report documents only the work performed to this point. It demonstrates that the computer codes developed by LLNL perform all calculations correctly and as intended. Differences exist between the results of the codes tested, that are attributed to a series of assumptions, on the parameters and models, that the developers had to make. The managing team is planning a new series of tests to help in reaching a consensus on these assumptions.
Book Synopsis Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis by : National Research Council
Download or read book Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1997-01-06 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site Seismic Safety Program by :
Download or read book Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site Seismic Safety Program written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Site Seismic Safety Program was conceived in 1979 during the preparation of the site Draft Environmental Impact Statement. The impetus for the program came from the development of new methodologies and geologic data that affect assessments of geologic hazards at the LLNL site; it was designed to develop a new assessment of the seismic hazard to the LLNL site and LLNL employees. Secondarily, the program was also intended to provide the technical information needed to make ongoing decisions about design criteria for future construction at LLNL and about the adequacy of existing facilities. This assessment was intended to be of the highest technical quality and to make use of the most recent and accepted hazard assessment methodologies. The basic purposes and objectives of the current revision are similar to those of the previous studies. Although all the data and experience assembled in the previous studies were utilized to their fullest, the large quantity of new information and new methodologies led to the formation of a new team that includes LLNL staff and outside consultants from academia and private consulting firms. A peer-review panel composed of individuals from academia (A. Cornell, Stanford University), the Department of Energy (DOE; Jeff Kimball), and consulting (Kevin Coppersmith), provided review and guidance. This panel was involved from the beginning of the project in a ''participatory'' type of review. The Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC, a committee sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, DOE, and the Electric Power Research Institute) strongly recommends the use of participatory reviews, in which the reviewers follow the progress of a project from the beginning, rather than waiting until the end to provide comments (Budnitz et al., 1997). Following the requirements for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) stipulated in the DOE standard DOE-STD-1023-95, a special effort was made to identify and quantify all types of uncertainties. The final seismic hazard estimates were de-aggregated to determine the contribution of all the seismic sources as well as the relative contributions of potential future earthquakes in terms of their magnitudes and distances from the site. It was found that, in agreement with previous studies, the Greenville Fault system contributes the most to the estimate of the seismic hazard expressed in terms of the probability of exceedance of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the center of the LLNL site (i.e., at high frequencies). It is followed closely by the Calaveras and Corral Hollow faults. The Mount Diablo thrust and the Springtown and Livermore faults were not considered in the hazard calculations in the 1991 study. In this study they contributed together approximately as much as the Greenville fault. At lower frequencies, more distant faults such as the Hayward and San Andreas faults begin to appear as substantial contributors to the total hazard. The results of this revision are presented in Figures 1 and 2. Figure 1 shows the estimated mean hazard curve in terms of the annual probability of exceedance of the peak ground acceleration (average of the two horizontal orthogonal components) at the LLNL site, assuming that the local site conditions are similar to those of a generic soil. Figure 2 shows the results in terms of the uniform hazard spectra (pseudo-spectral accelerations for 5% damping) for five return periods. Although this latest revision is based on a completely independent and in many respects very different set of data and methodology from the previous one, it gives essentially the same results for the prediction of the peak ground acceleration (PGA), albeit with a reduced uncertainty. The Greenville fault being a dominant contributor to the hazard, a field investigation was performed to better characterize the probability distribution of the rate of slip on the fault. Samples were collected from a trench located on the northern segment of the Greenville fault, and are in the process of being dated at the LLNL Center for Acceleration Mass Spectrometry (CAMS) using carbon-14. Preliminary results from the dating corroborate the range of values used in the hazard calculations. A final update after completion and qualification (quality assurance) of the date measurements, in the near future, will finalize the distribution of this important parameter, probably using Bayesian updating.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Characterization and Design Parameters for the Pantex Plant by :
Download or read book Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Characterization and Design Parameters for the Pantex Plant written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Hazards Mitigation Center at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) updated the seismic hazard and design parameters at the Pantex Plant. The probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) estimates were first updated using the latest available data and knowledge from LLNL (1993, 1998), Frankel et al. (1996), and other relevant recent studies from several consulting companies. Special attention was given to account for the local seismicity and for the system of potentially active faults associated with the Amarillo-Wichita uplift. Aleatory (random) uncertainty was estimated from the available data and the epistemic (knowledge) uncertainty was taken from results of similar studies. Special attention was given to soil amplification factors for the site. Horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped uniform hazard spectra were calculated for six return periods (100 yr., 500 yr., 1000 yr., 2000 yr., 10,000 yr., and 100,000 yr.). The design parameters were calculated following DOE standards (DOE-STD-1022 to 1024). Response spectra for design or evaluation of Performance Category 1 through 4 structures, systems, and components are presented.
Book Synopsis Eastern U.S. Seismic Hazard Characterization Update by : Auguste C. Boissonnade
Download or read book Eastern U.S. Seismic Hazard Characterization Update written by Auguste C. Boissonnade and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis DOE Standard Guidelines for Use of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves at Department of Energy Sites by :
Download or read book DOE Standard Guidelines for Use of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves at Department of Energy Sites written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Standard is intended to provide guidance in the use of the seismic hazard curves developed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Experience to-date has shown that application of these methodologies can yield significantly different results. In response to this issue, a Seismic Working Group (SWG) has been formed at the Department of Energy (DOE) Headquarters to coordinate the application of these methodologies within DOE in a consistent manner. The position developed by the SWG and contained in this Standard is intended for immediate use in developing seismic hazard estimates at DOE sites for the evaluation of new and existing, nuclear and non-nuclear DOE facilities. This Standard is needed not only to address the LLNL/EPRI issue but also to assure that state-of-the-art seismic hazard methods are incorporated into DOE standards as soon as possible. The DOE is currently involved in a joint program with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and EPRI to evaluate these existing probabilistic seismic hazard methodologies and to develop recommendations for an improved methodology for the 1990's. The final product of this effort is expected to result in more stable hazard estimates and will supersede this Standard in approximately two years.
Book Synopsis Revised Livermore Seismic Hazard Estimates for Sixty-nine Nuclear Power Plant Sites East of the Rocky Mountains. Final Report, July 1993--March 1994 by :
Download or read book Revised Livermore Seismic Hazard Estimates for Sixty-nine Nuclear Power Plant Sites East of the Rocky Mountains. Final Report, July 1993--March 1994 written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The draft version of this report presented updated Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis estimates for 69 nuclear power plant sites in the region of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. LLNL performed a re-elicitation of seismicity and ground motion experts to improve their estimates of uncertainty in seismicity parameters and ground motion models. Using these revised inputs, LLNL updated the seismic hazard estimates documented in NUREG/CR-5250 (1989). These updated hazard estimates will be used in future NRC actions. The draft was issued for public comment in October 1993. By the end of the public comment period, February 28, 1994, comments had been received from two nuclear industry companies. The comments from these companies neither contested nor suggested amendments to the technical data conveyed in the report. Rather, they both suggest changes in the Individual Plant External Event Examination (IPEEE) program scope. This report is not the forum for discussion of the IPEEE program. Possible modification to the scope of the IPEEE will be examined in its own setting. Therefore, there are no technical differences between the draft report and this final report. Any information as to modifications to the IPEEE program will be provided to the public via an NRC general communication.
Book Synopsis Updated Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analyses for the University of California, Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory by :
Download or read book Updated Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analyses for the University of California, Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of ground motion levels having specified frequencies of exceedance (return periods) for UCB campus and LBNL.
Download or read book DDR Bezirk Magdeburg written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Characterization and Design Parameters for the Sites of the Nuclear Power Plants of Ukraine by :
Download or read book Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Characterization and Design Parameters for the Sites of the Nuclear Power Plants of Ukraine written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Department of Energy (US DOE), under the auspices of the International Nuclear Safety Program (INSP) is supporting in-depth safety assessments (ISA) of nuclear power plants in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union for the purpose of evaluating the safety and upgrades necessary to the stock of nuclear power plants in Ukraine. For this purpose the Hazards Mitigation Center at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has been asked to assess the seismic hazard and design parameters at the sites of the nuclear power plants in Ukraine. The probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) estimates were updated using the latest available data and knowledge from LLNL, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other relevant recent studies from several consulting companies. Special attention was given to account for the local seismicity, the deep focused earthquakes of the Vrancea zone, in Romania, the region around Crimea and for the system of potentially active faults associated with the Pripyat Dniepro Donnetts rift. Aleatory (random) uncertainty was estimated from the available data and the epistemic (knowledge) uncertainty was estimated by considering the existing models in the literature and the interpretations of a small group of experts elicited during a workshop conducted in Kiev, Ukraine, on February 2-4, 1999.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Southern California Coastal Facilities by :
Download or read book Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Southern California Coastal Facilities written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overall objective of this study was to develop probabilistic seismic hazard estimates for the coastal and offshore area of Ventura, Los Angeles and Orange counties for use as a basis for the University of Southern California (USC) to develop physical models of tsunami for the coastal regions and by the California State Lands Commission (SLC) to develop regulatory standards for seismic loading and liquefaction evaluation of marine oil terminals. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was carried out by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), in several phases over a time period of two years, following the method developed by LLNL for the estimation of seismic hazards at Department Of Energy (DOE) facilities, and for 69 locations of nuclear plants in the Eastern United States, for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). This method consists in making maximum use of all physical data (qualitative, and quantitative) and to characterize the uncertainties by using a set of alternate spatiotemporal models of occurrence of future earthquakes, as described in the SSHAC, PSHA Guidance Document (Budnitz et al., 1997), and implemented for the NRC (Savy et al., 2002). In general, estimation of seismic hazard is based not only on our understanding of the regional tectonics and detailed characterization of the faults in the area but also on the analysis methods employed and the types of physical and empirical models that are deemed appropriate for the analysis. To develop this understanding, the body of knowledge in the scientific community is sampled in a series of workshops with a group of experts representative of the entire scientific community, including geologists and seismologists from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), members of the South California Earthquake Center (SCEC), and members of academic institutions (University of California Santa-Cruz, Stanford, UC Santa Barbara, and University of Southern California), and members of consulting firms. The purpose of the workshops was to analyze and evaluate existing data and formulate tectonic models that represent all the possible and physically valid models envisioned by the group. The basic input for the PSHA was a set of alternate earthquake source characterizations and a multi-model representation of ground motion attenuation, for adequate representation of the uncertainties. In the first phase, the physical modeling enabled rigorous analysis of uncertainty that arises from a lack of full knowledge in the characterization of both earthquake sources and ground motion. The set of ground motion prediction models included models that were updated to benefit from near field data from the most recent earthquakes (Taiwan and Turkey). The calculation were performed with LLNL computer software that is based on the Cornell, 1968 analytical model, and that propagates the knowledge uncertainties using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach (see, Bernreuter et al., 1989). Although the calculation were performed for rock-site conditions and generic soil sites, only the results for rock are given here. It is assumed that development of design parameters will include a correction of the spectral shape to reflect the site specificity. The results are for the average of the two horizontal components of the ground motion. The PSHA was calculated for thirteen sites, including two sites offshore. These sites are: Catalina Island site 1, Catalina Island site 2, Goleta, Offshore Santa-Monica, Offshore San-Clemente, Port Dume, Palos Verde site 1, Palos Verde site 2, Port of Long Beach, Port of Los Angeles, Port Hueneme, San Pedro Escarpment, and Redondo Canyon. For these thirteen sites, the hazard curves in terms of probability of exceedence of the peak ground acceleration (PGA), was calculated. In addition for Port of Long Beach, Port of Los Angeles, Santa Monica, and a site Offshore, east of San Clemente the (5% damping) uniform hazard response spectra were calculated for five Return Periods (100, 500, 1000, 2000, 10,000 year Return Periods). The detailed results are given in chapter 7.
Book Synopsis On Seismic Hazards/risk and Power Plant Design by : Dae H. Chung
Download or read book On Seismic Hazards/risk and Power Plant Design written by Dae H. Chung and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The basic premise of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is to calculate the probability of exceeding various levels of ground motions at a site of interest. We must assess (1) the possible sources of earthquakes that might affect ground motions at the site, (2) the maximum magnitude earthquakes that each source is capable of generating, (3) the recurrence rate of earthquakes of all magnitudes up to the maximum on each source, and (4) the attenuation of strong ground motions as a function of source to site distance and magnitude.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis by : William E. Benson
Download or read book Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis written by William E. Benson and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NRC Committee on Seismology established the Panel on Seismic Hazard Analysis to assess methodologies. The panel concentrated on the probabilistic method but also examined alternatives. The panel's discussions included a review of the extensive hazard analyses for the eastern United States by the Electric Power Research Institute and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. A questionnaire about the attributes of seismic hazard analysis methods was sent to members of the scientific and technical community and decision makers. The report is addressed to decision makers with a modest scientific and technical background and to the scientific and technical community. Keywords: Seismic ground motion; Earthquakes; Seismic Hazards; Probability methods. (EDC).
Book Synopsis Continued Operation of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory by :
Download or read book Continued Operation of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 652 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Weekly Information Report written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts by :
Download or read book Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motion will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreement among experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of ground motion for design at a given site. In order to review the present state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) co-sponsored a project to provide methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project has been carried out by a seven-member Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) supported by a large number other experts. The SSHAC reviewed past studies, including the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the EPRI landmark PSHA studies of the 1980's and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. The Committee's most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are due to procedural rather than technical differences. Thus, in addition to providing a detailed documentation on state-of-the-art elements of a PSHA, this report provides a series of procedural recommendations. The role of experts is analyzed in detail. Two entities are formally defined-the Technical Integrator (TI) and the Technical Facilitator Integrator (TFI)--to account for the various levels of complexity in the technical issues and different levels of efforts needed in a given study.
