Probabilistic Forecasts And Optimal Decisions

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Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions

Author : Roman Krzysztofowicz
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 139422186X
Total Pages : 581 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (942 download)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions by : Roman Krzysztofowicz

Download or read book Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions written by Roman Krzysztofowicz and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2025-02-03 with total page 581 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Account for uncertainties and optimize decision-making with this thorough exposition Decision theory is a body of thought and research seeking to apply a mathematical-logical framework to assessing probability and optimizing decision-making. It has developed robust tools for addressing all major challenges to decision making. Yet the number of variables and uncertainties affecting each decision outcome, many of them beyond the decider's control, mean that decision-making is far from a “solved problem”. The tools created by decision theory remain to be refined and applied to decisions in which uncertainties are prominent. Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions introduces a theoretically-grounded methodology for optimizing decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Beginning with an overview of the basic elements of probability theory and methods for modeling continuous variates, it proceeds to survey the mathematics of both continuous and discrete models, supporting each with key examples. The result is a crucial window into the complex but enormously rewarding world of decision theory. Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions readers will also find: Extended case studies supported with real-world data Mini-projects running through multiple chapters to illustrate different stages of the decision-making process End of chapter exercises designed to facilitate student learning Probabilistic Forecasts and Optimal Decisions is ideal for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the sciences and engineering, as well as predictive analytics and decision analytics professionals.

Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting

Author : André Gensler
Publisher : kassel university press GmbH
ISBN 13 : 3737606366
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (376 download)

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Book Synopsis Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting by : André Gensler

Download or read book Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting written by André Gensler and published by kassel university press GmbH. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.

Statistical Learning Tools for Electricity Load Forecasting

Author : Anestis Antoniadis
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031603397
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (316 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Learning Tools for Electricity Load Forecasting by : Anestis Antoniadis

Download or read book Statistical Learning Tools for Electricity Load Forecasting written by Anestis Antoniadis and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Probability, Statistics, And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences

Author : Allan Murphy
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000236323
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability, Statistics, And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences by : Allan Murphy

Download or read book Probability, Statistics, And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences written by Allan Murphy and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Methodology drawn from the fields of probability. statistics and decision making plays an increasingly important role in the atmosphericsciences. both in basic and applied research and in experimental and operational studies. Applications of such methodology can be found in almost every facet of the discipline. from the most theoretical and global (e.g., atmospheric predictability. global climate modeling) to the most practical and local (e.g., crop-weather modeling forecast evaluation). Almost every issue of the multitude of journals published by the atmospheric sciences community now contain some or more papers involving applications of concepts and/or methodology from the fields of probability and statistics. Despite the increasingly pervasive nature of such applications. very few book length treatments of probabilistic and statistical topics of particular interest to atmospheric scientists have appeared (especially inEnglish) since the publication of the pioneering works of Brooks andCarruthers (Handbook of Statistical Methods in Meteorology) in 1953 and Panofsky and Brier-(some Applications of)statistics to Meteor) in 1958. As a result. many relatively recent developments in probability and statistics are not well known to atmospheric scientists and recent work in active areas of meteorological research involving significant applications of probabilistic and statistical methods are not familiar to the meteorological community as a whole.

Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk

Author : Alberto Troccoli
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402069901
Total Pages : 462 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk by : Alberto Troccoli

Download or read book Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-02-22 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

Intelligent Decision Technologies

Author : Rui Neves-Silva
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319198572
Total Pages : 664 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligent Decision Technologies by : Rui Neves-Silva

Download or read book Intelligent Decision Technologies written by Rui Neves-Silva and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-06-09 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the 57 papers accepted for presentation at the Seventh KES International Conference on Intelligent Decision Technologies (KES-IDT 2015), held in Sorrento, Italy, in June 2015. The conference consists of keynote talks, oral and poster presentations, invited sessions and workshops on the applications and theory of intelligent decision systems and related areas. The conference provides an opportunity for the presentation and discussion of interesting new research results, promoting knowledge transfer and the generation of new ideas. The book will be of interest to all those whose work involves the development and application of intelligent decision systems.

Handbook of Probabilistic Models

Author : Pijush Samui
Publisher : Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN 13 : 0128165464
Total Pages : 592 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Probabilistic Models by : Pijush Samui

Download or read book Handbook of Probabilistic Models written by Pijush Samui and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2019-10-05 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Probabilistic Models carefully examines the application of advanced probabilistic models in conventional engineering fields. In this comprehensive handbook, practitioners, researchers and scientists will find detailed explanations of technical concepts, applications of the proposed methods, and the respective scientific approaches needed to solve the problem. This book provides an interdisciplinary approach that creates advanced probabilistic models for engineering fields, ranging from conventional fields of mechanical engineering and civil engineering, to electronics, electrical, earth sciences, climate, agriculture, water resource, mathematical sciences and computer sciences. Specific topics covered include minimax probability machine regression, stochastic finite element method, relevance vector machine, logistic regression, Monte Carlo simulations, random matrix, Gaussian process regression, Kalman filter, stochastic optimization, maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference, Bayesian update, kriging, copula-statistical models, and more. - Explains the application of advanced probabilistic models encompassing multidisciplinary research - Applies probabilistic modeling to emerging areas in engineering - Provides an interdisciplinary approach to probabilistic models and their applications, thus solving a wide range of practical problems

Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resource Systems

Author : Janos J. Bogardi
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139432249
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resource Systems by : Janos J. Bogardi

Download or read book Risk, Reliability, Uncertainty, and Robustness of Water Resource Systems written by Janos J. Bogardi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002-01-28 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 35 leading multi-disciplinary scientists with international reputations provide reviews of topical areas of research on uncertainty and reliability related aspects of water resource systems. The volume will be valuable for graduate students, scientists, consultants, administrators, and practising hydrologists and water managers.

Smart Meter Data Analytics

Author : Yi Wang
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811526249
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (115 download)

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Book Synopsis Smart Meter Data Analytics by : Yi Wang

Download or read book Smart Meter Data Analytics written by Yi Wang and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-02-24 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to make the best use of fine-grained smart meter data to process and translate them into actual information and incorporated into consumer behavior modeling and distribution system operations. It begins with an overview of recent developments in smart meter data analytics. Since data management is the basis of further smart meter data analytics and its applications, three issues on data management, i.e., data compression, anomaly detection, and data generation, are subsequently studied. The following works try to model complex consumer behavior. Specific works include load profiling, pattern recognition, personalized price design, socio-demographic information identification, and household behavior coding. On this basis, the book extends consumer behavior in spatial and temporal scale. Works such as consumer aggregation, individual load forecasting, and aggregated load forecasting are introduced. We hope this book can inspire readers to define new problems, apply novel methods, and obtain interesting results with massive smart meter data or even other monitoring data in the power systems.

Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets

Author : Juan M. Morales
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461494117
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (614 download)

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Book Synopsis Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets by : Juan M. Morales

Download or read book Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets written by Juan M. Morales and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-03 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This addition to the ISOR series addresses the analytics of the operations of electric energy systems with increasing penetration of stochastic renewable production facilities, such as wind- and solar-based generation units. As stochastic renewable production units become ubiquitous throughout electric energy systems, an increasing level of flexible backup provided by non-stochastic units and other system agents is needed if supply security and quality are to be maintained. Within the context above, this book provides up-to-date analytical tools to address challenging operational problems such as: • The modeling and forecasting of stochastic renewable power production. • The characterization of the impact of renewable production on market outcomes. • The clearing of electricity markets with high penetration of stochastic renewable units. • The development of mechanisms to counteract the variability and unpredictability of stochastic renewable units so that supply security is not at risk. • The trading of the electric energy produced by stochastic renewable producers. • The association of a number of electricity production facilities, stochastic and others, to increase their competitive edge in the electricity market. • The development of procedures to enable demand response and to facilitate the integration of stochastic renewable units. This book is written in a modular and tutorial manner and includes many illustrative examples to facilitate its comprehension. It is intended for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the fields of electric energy systems, applied mathematics and economics. Practitioners in the electric energy sector will benefit as well from the concepts and techniques explained in this book.

Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk

Author : Alberto Troccoli
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402069928
Total Pages : 462 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk by : Alberto Troccoli

Download or read book Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-29 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions

Author : Corinna Möhrlen
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0443186820
Total Pages : 390 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (431 download)

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Book Synopsis IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions by : Corinna Möhrlen

Download or read book IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions written by Corinna Möhrlen and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2022-11-12 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published as an Open Access book available on Science Direct, IEA Wind Recommended Practices for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions translates decades of academic knowledge and standard requirements into applicable procedures and decision support tools for the energy industry. Designed specifically for practitioners in the energy industry, readers will find the tools to maximize the value of renewable energy forecast information in operational decision-making applications and significantly reduce the costs of integrating large amounts of wind and solar generation assets into grid systems through more efficient management of the renewable generation variability. Authored by a group of international experts as part of the IEA Wind Task 36 (Wind Energy Forecasting), the book addresses the issue that many current operational forecast solutions are not properly optimized for their intended applications. It provides detailed guidelines and recommended practices on forecast solution selection processes, designing and executing forecasting benchmarks and trials, forecast solution evaluation, verification, and validation, and meteorological and power data requirements for real-time forecasting applications. In addition, the guidelines integrate probabilistic forecasting, integrate wind and solar forecasting, offer improved IT data exchange and data format standards, and have a dedicated section to dealing with the requirements for SCADA and meteorological measurements. A unique and comprehensive reference, IEA Wind Recommended Practices for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions is an essential guide for all practitioners involved in wind and solar energy generation forecasting from forecast vendors to end-users of renewable forecasting solutions. - Brings together the decades-long expertise of authors from a range of backgrounds, including universities and government laboratories, commercial forecasters, and operational forecast end-users into a single comprehensive set of practices - Addresses all areas of wind power forecasting, including forecasting methods, measurement selection, setup and data quality control, and the evaluation of forecasting processes related to renewable energy forecasting - Provides purpose-built decision-support tools, process diagrams, and code examples to help readers visualize and navigate the book and support decision-making

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 012812248X
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by : Stéphane Vannitsem

Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. - Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place - Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts - Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

GIS and Remote Sensing in Hydrology, Water Resources and Environment

Author : Yangbo Chen
Publisher : Iahs Press
ISBN 13 : 9781901502725
Total Pages : 444 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (27 download)

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Book Synopsis GIS and Remote Sensing in Hydrology, Water Resources and Environment by : Yangbo Chen

Download or read book GIS and Remote Sensing in Hydrology, Water Resources and Environment written by Yangbo Chen and published by Iahs Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Monthly Weather Review

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1020 pages
Book Rating : 4.U/5 (183 download)

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Book Synopsis Monthly Weather Review by :

Download or read book Monthly Weather Review written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 1020 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecast Verification

Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470864419
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (78 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecast Verification by : Ian T. Jolliffe

Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-08-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms

Forecasting with Artificial Intelligence

Author : Mohsen Hamoudia
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031358791
Total Pages : 441 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (313 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting with Artificial Intelligence by : Mohsen Hamoudia

Download or read book Forecasting with Artificial Intelligence written by Mohsen Hamoudia and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-10-22 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a comprehensive guide that explores the intersection of artificial intelligence and forecasting, providing the latest insights and trends in this rapidly evolving field. The book contains fourteen chapters covering a wide range of topics, including the concept of AI, its impact on economic decision-making, traditional and machine learning-based forecasting methods, challenges in demand forecasting, global forecasting models, meta-learning and feature-based forecasting, ensembling, deep learning, scalability in industrial and optimization applications, and forecasting performance evaluation. With key illustrations, state-of-the-art implementations, best practices, and notable advances, this book offers practical insights into the theory and practice of AI-based forecasting. This book is a valuable resource for anyone involved in forecasting, including forecasters, statisticians, data scientists, business analysts, or decision-makers.