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Prior Forecasting Accuracy And Investor Reaction To Management Earnings Forecasts
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Book Synopsis Prior Forecasting Accuracy and Investor Reaction to Management Earnings Forecasts by : Amy P. Hutton
Download or read book Prior Forecasting Accuracy and Investor Reaction to Management Earnings Forecasts written by Amy P. Hutton and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the properties of firms' forecasting records and whether the accuracy of their prior earnings forecasts affects investor response to their subsequent forecasts. Within the context of a Bayesian model of investor learning, we find that the stock price response to management forecast news is increasing in prior forecast accuracy and also in the length of a firm's forecasting record. Further, we document that investors are more responsive to extreme good and bad news forecasts when a firm has an established forecasting record. Overall, these results suggest that a firm's prior forecasting behavior allows it to establish a forecasting reputation.
Book Synopsis The Joint Effect of Management's Prior Forecast Accuracy and the Form of its Financial Forecasts on Investor Judgment by : D. Eric Hirst
Download or read book The Joint Effect of Management's Prior Forecast Accuracy and the Form of its Financial Forecasts on Investor Judgment written by D. Eric Hirst and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine how investor reaction to management earnings forecasts is a joint function of the form of the forecast and management's perceived credibility. In a laboratory experiment involving 126 individual investors, we compare investors' earnings predictions and their confidence therein after receiving point and closed range forecasts issued by managements whose previous forecasting accuracy is known to be either high or low. We used point and range forecasts, because they differ in the degree to which they communicate management's uncertainty about the future. We use management's prior forecasting accuracy as a measure of management's credibility, because prior research has documented the importance of this factor when considering the usefulness of management's voluntary forecasts.Our results show that, as expected, investors' earnings predictions are responsive to management's forecasts. However, as we hypothesized, forecast form did not influence investors' earnings estimates. In contrast, investors' confidence in their earnings predictions was influenced by the form of management's forecasts, but this effect emerged only when management was previously accurate in their forecasting. A similar interactive pattern was found in the dispersion of investors' predictions about the company's future earnings. Finally, consistent with the hypothesis that confidence is an important determinant of investor behavior, we find that investors' judgments of future stock price appreciation are a positive function of both unexpected earnings and the change in their confidence.Our study extends the literature on management forecasts by empirically testing the joint influence of management's credibility (i.e., forecasting accuracy) and forecast form. The prior literature has argued that both factors should be important, but has not delineated whether or how these two factors might interact. We present a theoretical framework that indicates when both factors should influence investor judgment.
Book Synopsis Investors' Reactions to Management Earnings Forecasts by : Andrew M. Collins
Download or read book Investors' Reactions to Management Earnings Forecasts written by Andrew M. Collins and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis An Empirical Test of Learning in Management Earnings Forecasts by : Yuan Shi (Ph.D.)
Download or read book An Empirical Test of Learning in Management Earnings Forecasts written by Yuan Shi (Ph.D.) and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My dissertation examines whether managers issuing earnings guidance learn from the forecast errors in prior earnings guidance issued by them. Using data on quarterly earnings forecasts issued by managers during the period from 2001 to 2016, I find results that are consistent with managers learning from their previous forecast errors to improve their forecast accuracy. However, the intensity of the managers' reactions to previous forecast errors is asymmetric. Consistent with prior literature that emphasizes the importance of meeting or beating forecasts for managers, certain managers that miss their own forecasts tend to be conservative enough in their future forecasts to avoid missing their own forecasts again. However, as expected, when the managers have met or beaten their previous forecasts, they have a smaller forecast error, but they still beat their previous forecasts. Additional analysis suggests that these effects persist even after controlling for potential earnings management to achieve these earnings targets. I also examine the impact of managerial attributes and board governance characteristics on the learning process. My analysis suggests that while CEO overconfidence and CFO overconfidence appear to impede learning, Managerial ability, CEO duality and outside CEO(s) as director(s) strengthen the learning effect. My findings shed light on an important aspect of management guidance and may have implications for users of this information such as financial analysts and investors.
Book Synopsis Investor Reaction to Celebrity Analysts by : Sarah E. Bonner
Download or read book Investor Reaction to Celebrity Analysts written by Sarah E. Bonner and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects of analysts' celebrity on investor reaction to earnings forecast revisions. We measure celebrity as the quantity of media coverage analysts receive in sources included in the Dow Jones Interactive database, and find that media coverage is positively related to investor reaction to forecast revisions. The effect of celebrity on the reaction to forecast revisions remains significant after controlling for forecast performance variables examined in prior studies (ex post forecast accuracy, ex ante accuracy, award status, and other variables shown to be related to forecast accuracy). While these results are consistent with the familiarity of the analyst's name affecting the market reaction, we cannot rule out that our measure of celebrity is correlated with error in the performance measures we examine and/or correlated with other unexamined dimensions of forecast performance. A content analysis of a random subsample of the media coverage of our sample analysts suggests that our findings likely are not due to the increased availability of forecast revisions. Finally, an investigation of the excess returns around the quarterly earnings announcement date suggests that market participants react too strongly to forecast revisions issued by analysts with high levels of media coverage. Taken together, these findings suggest that an analyst's level of media coverage can affect the initial market reaction to his forecast revisions.
Book Synopsis Does Investor Sentiment Affect Sell-Side Analysts' Forecast Bias and Forecast Accuracy by : Beverly R. Walther
Download or read book Does Investor Sentiment Affect Sell-Side Analysts' Forecast Bias and Forecast Accuracy written by Beverly R. Walther and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the association between investor expectations and its components and sell-side analysts' short-run quarterly earnings forecast bias and forecast accuracy. To measure investor expectations, we use the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) survey and decompose it into the “fundamental” component related to underlying economic factors (FUND) and the “sentiment” component unrelated to underlying economic factors (SENT). We find that analysts are the most optimistic and the least accurate when SENT is higher. Management long-horizon earnings forecasts attenuate the effects of SENT on forecast optimism and forecast accuracy. Analysts are also the most accurate when FUND is higher. Last, the market places more weight on unexpected earnings when SENT is high. These findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment and the market reacts more strongly to unexpected earnings when analyst forecasts are the least accurate. The last result potentially explains why prior research (for example, Baker and Wurgler 2006) finds an association between investor sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns.
Book Synopsis New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Tanja Klettke
Download or read book New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Tanja Klettke and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
Book Synopsis Sophisticated and Unsophisticated Investors' Reactions to Analysts' Forecast Revisions Conditional on Factors that are Associated with Forecast Accuracy by : Sarah E. Bonner
Download or read book Sophisticated and Unsophisticated Investors' Reactions to Analysts' Forecast Revisions Conditional on Factors that are Associated with Forecast Accuracy written by Sarah E. Bonner and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study we examine differences between sophisticated and unsophisticated investors' incorporation of information about the accuracy of sell-side analysts' revisions of quarterly earnings forecasts. Our results indicate that sophisticated investors' weights on information cues associated with accuracy more closely match the weights derived from environmental models of forecast accuracy. Further, our findings suggest that sophisticated investors' strategies better reflect the costs and benefits of using accuracy cues that provide statistically significant, but economically small, explanatory power for forecast accuracy. Our evidence is consistent with sophisticated investors having greater knowledge about the factors that are related to forecast accuracy and exhibiting more adaptive cue-weighting strategies.
Book Synopsis Forecast Accuracy and Stock Recommendations by : Jason Hall
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy and Stock Recommendations written by Jason Hall and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine whether it is profitable to trade according to the recommendations of analysts who made accurate earnings forecasts in a prior year. Prior research has shown that analysts who made the most accurate earnings forecasts in the current period also made the most profitable recommendations during that period. Unfortunately, our research shows that these accurate forecasters cannot be identified on the basis of their track record. While there is statistically significant evidence that forecasting ability is persistent, it is not sufficient to generate profitable stock recommendations in the future. We also attempted to identify superior analysts with respect to the combination of forecast accuracy and recommendation profitability. Even with this finer segmentation of analysts there is no difference in their ability to make profitable recommendations in the future. Furthermore, regardless of forecasting ability, analysts are pre-disposed to recommend stocks with low book-to-market ratios and positive price momentum. This bias may impede their ability to make profitable recommendations.
Book Synopsis The Determinants and Consequences of Managerial Earnings Guidance Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure by : Amy P. Hutton
Download or read book The Determinants and Consequences of Managerial Earnings Guidance Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure written by Amy P. Hutton and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure some management spent considerable time and effort guiding analyst earnings estimates; other management did not. In this paper I examine the determinants and consequences of management's decision to work with analysts in the development of their earnings estimates using proprietary survey data from the National Investor Relations Institute. Findings suggest that when earnings are important to valuation but hard to forecast because businesses and financial transactions are complex, management is more likely to provide assistance to analysts presumably to avoid inaccurate analyst forecasts and negative earnings surprises. A comparison of guided and unguided analyst forecasts indicates that guided quarterly earnings forecasts are more accurate but also more frequently pessimistic, consistent with analysts rationally trading offbias for accuracy to retain access to management's earnings guidance. Cross-sample comparisons of analysts' stock recommendations and long-term growth forecasts provide additional support for the hypothesis that analyst objectivity and independence is affected by management's decision to provide earnings guidance. Finally, evidence from stock price reactions to deviations from the consensus forecast (the traditional measure of earnings surprises) indicates that investors distinguish between guided and unguided analyst forecasts when forming their earnings expectations. This study furthers our understanding of what factors affect management's disclosure choices and how managers' disclosure choices influence the objectivity and independence of sell-side analysts.
Book Synopsis Investor Sentiment and Management Earnings Forecast Bias by : Helen Hurwitz
Download or read book Investor Sentiment and Management Earnings Forecast Bias written by Helen Hurwitz and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates whether investor sentiment is associated with behavioral bias in managers' annual earnings forecasts that are generally issued early in the year when uncertainty is relatively high. I provide evidence that management earnings forecast optimism increases with investor sentiment. Furthermore, I find that managers' annual earnings forecasts are more pessimistic during low-sentiment periods than during normal-sentiment periods. Since managers lack incentives to further deflate stock prices during a low-sentiment period, this evidence indicates that sentiment-related management earnings forecast bias is likely to be unintentional. In addition, I find that the relation between management earnings forecast bias and investor sentiment is stronger for firms with higher uncertainty, consistent with investor sentiment having a greater influence on management earnings forecasts when uncertainty is higher.
Book Synopsis The Effect of Prior Forecast Usefulness on User Reaction to a Management Earnings Forecast by : Patricia A. Williams
Download or read book The Effect of Prior Forecast Usefulness on User Reaction to a Management Earnings Forecast written by Patricia A. Williams and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Which Matters? Accuracy or Boldness? Analysts Earnings Forecast and Institutional Holdings by : Min-Hsien Chiang
Download or read book Which Matters? Accuracy or Boldness? Analysts Earnings Forecast and Institutional Holdings written by Min-Hsien Chiang and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to investigate the effect of financial analysts' earnings forecast on the institutional trading. In specific, we address three issues regarding the effect of financial analysts earnings forecast on the institutional holdings: (1) Do institutional investors pay more attention and more sensitive to analyst earnings forecast with higher forecast accuracy? (2) Do institutional investors prefer analysts with higher accuracy on earnings forecast? (3) Do institutional investors prefer analysts with bold attitude toward earnings forecast? Firstly, our empirical results show that institutional investors do pay attention to the accuracy of financial analysts earnings forecast. That is, firms with higher accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast tend to attract more institutional investors' attention and thus higher institutional holdings. Secondly, our results evidence that institutional investors prefer analysts with higher accuracy in their earnings forecast. That means institutional investors tend to follow more closely those analysts whose earnings forecasts are more accurate. Finally, we find that institutional investors in general are indifferent to the boldness of analysts earnings forecast. However, institutional investors will pay more attention and follow more closely those analysts whose earnings forecasts are not only accurate but also close to the consensus.
Book Synopsis Applied Corporate Finance by : Mark K. Pyles
Download or read book Applied Corporate Finance written by Mark K. Pyles and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-02 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied Corporate Finance fills a gap in the existing resources available to students and professionals needing an academically rigorous, yet practically orientated, source of knowledge about corporate finance. Written by an expert in investment analysis, this textbook leads readers to truly understand the principles behind corporate finance in a real world context from both a firm and investor perspective. The focus of this text is on traditional theory applied to a holistic business case study, offering readers both a quantitative and qualitative perspective on such topics as capital budgeting, time value of money, corporate risk, and capital structure. Each section in the book corresponds to the order in which a business makes key financial decisions—as opposed to level of difficulty—allowing readers to grasp a comprehensive understanding of the corporate financial life cycle. Directly addressing the area of corporate finance in an applied setting, and featuring numerous case examples and end-of-chapter discussion questions and problems, this textbook will appeal to advanced undergraduates majoring in finance, graduate-level students, as well as professionals in need of a quick refresher on corporate financial policy.
Book Synopsis Management Earnings Forecasts by : Shankar Venkataraman
Download or read book Management Earnings Forecasts written by Shankar Venkataraman and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we provide a framework in which to view management earnings forecasts. Specifically, we categorize earnings forecasts as having three components - antecedents, characteristics, and consequences - that roughly correspond to the timeline associated with an earnings forecast. By evaluating management earnings forecast research within the context of this framework, we render three conclusions. First, forecast characteristics appear to be the least well-understood component of earnings forecasts - both in terms of theory and empirical research - even though it is the component over which managers have the most control. Second, much of the prior research focuses on how one forecast antecedent or characteristic influences forecast consequences and does not study potential interactions among the three components. Third, much of the prior research ignores the iterative nature of management earnings forecasts - that is, forecast consequences of the current period influence antecedents and chosen characteristics in subsequent periods. Implications for researchers as well as educators, managers, investors, and regulators are provided.
Book Synopsis Analysts' Forecasts as Proxies for Investor Beliefs in Empirical Research by : Jeffery S. Abarbanell
Download or read book Analysts' Forecasts as Proxies for Investor Beliefs in Empirical Research written by Jeffery S. Abarbanell and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Sebastian Gell
Download or read book Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Sebastian Gell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
