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Principles And Techniques Of Predicting Future
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Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Book Synopsis Predicting the Future by : Nicholas Rescher
Download or read book Predicting the Future written by Nicholas Rescher and published by SUNY Press. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.
Book Synopsis Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation by : B.V. Martin
Download or read book Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation written by B.V. Martin and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation by : Brian V. Martin
Download or read book Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation written by Brian V. Martin and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previously issued [1961] as Research Report no. 38 and Research Report R63-1 of the Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Book Synopsis Principles and techniques of predicting future by : Brian V Martin
Download or read book Principles and techniques of predicting future written by Brian V Martin and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transporttaion by :
Download or read book Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transporttaion written by and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Time Predictions by : Torleif Halkjelsvik
Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Book Synopsis Principles and techniques of predicting future demand for urban area transportation by : Brian V. Martin
Download or read book Principles and techniques of predicting future demand for urban area transportation written by Brian V. Martin and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Predicting the Future by : Albert S. Lyons
Download or read book Predicting the Future written by Albert S. Lyons and published by Harry N Abrams Incorporated. This book was released on 1990-01-01 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Principles and techniques of predicting future demand... by : Brian V. Martin
Download or read book Principles and techniques of predicting future demand... written by Brian V. Martin and published by . This book was released on 1956 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Joint Highway Research Project of Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :215 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (636 download)
Book Synopsis Report by : Joint Highway Research Project of Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Download or read book Report written by Joint Highway Research Project of Massachusetts Institute of Technology and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Principles of Forecasting by : J.S. Armstrong
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-05-31 with total page 840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Book Synopsis Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Transportation by : Brian V. Martin
Download or read book Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Transportation written by Brian V. Martin and published by . This book was released on 1966 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author :Joint Higway Research Project of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Sanitary Engineering and Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Department of Public Works Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :214 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (64 download)
Book Synopsis Report Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation by : Joint Higway Research Project of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Sanitary Engineering and Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Department of Public Works
Download or read book Report Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation written by Joint Higway Research Project of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Sanitary Engineering and Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Department of Public Works and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Report on Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation by : Brian V. Martin
Download or read book Report on Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation written by Brian V. Martin and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Report on Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation by : Brian V. Martin
Download or read book Report on Principles and Techniques of Predicting Future Demand for Urban Area Transportation written by Brian V. Martin and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
