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Predicting Volatility In The Foreign Exchange Market
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Book Synopsis Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market by : Philippe Jorion
Download or read book Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Philippe Jorion and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measures of volatility implied in option prices are widely believed to be the best available volatility forecasts. In this paper, we examine the information content and predictive power of Implied Standard Deviations (ISD's) derived from CME options on foreign currency futures. The paper finds that statistical time- series models, even when given the advantage of quot;ex postquot; parameter estimates, are outperformed by ISD's. ISD's, however, also appear to be biased volatility forecasts. Using simulations to investigate the robustness of these results, the paper finds that measurement errors and statistical problems can substantially distort inferences. Even accounting for these, however, ISD's appear to be too variable relative to future volatility.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets by : John Knight
Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by John Knight and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 1998 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An aid to understanding the significance of volatility in the financial market, this text details modelling/forecasting techniques and uses a technical survey to define the models of volatility and return and explain the ways to measure risk. Applications in the financial markets are then detailed.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets by : Stephen Satchell
Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-02-24 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Rates by : Arif Orçun Söylemez
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Rates written by Arif Orçun Söylemez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-02-07 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.
Book Synopsis A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility by : Ser-Huang Poon
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
Book Synopsis Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets by : Christian Ullrich
Download or read book Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets written by Christian Ullrich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-05-30 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historical and recent developments at international ?nancial markets show that it is easy to loose money, while it is dif?cult to predict future developments and op- mize decision-making towards maximizing returns and minimizing risk. One of the reasons of our inability to make reliable predictions and to make optimal decisions is the growing complexity of the global economy. This is especially true for the f- eign exchange market (FX market) which is considered as one of the largest and most liquid ?nancial markets. Its grade of ef?ciencyand its complexityis one of the starting points of this volume. From the high complexity of the FX market, Christian Ullrich deduces the - cessity to use tools from machine learning and arti?cial intelligence, e.g., support vector machines, and to combine such methods with sophisticated ?nancial mod- ing techniques. The suitability of this combination of ideas is demonstrated by an empirical study and by simulation. I am pleased to introduce this book to its - dience, hoping that it will provide the reader with interesting ideas to support the understanding of FX markets and to help to improve risk management in dif?cult times. Moreover, I hope that its publication will stimulate further research to contribute to the solution of the many open questions in this area.
Book Synopsis Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks by : Lean Yu
Download or read book Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks written by Lean Yu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-02-26 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks (ANNs), creating and applying the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges.
Book Synopsis Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks by : Lean Yu
Download or read book Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks written by Lean Yu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-02 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks. It creates and applies the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange-rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges. Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks is targeted at both the academic and practitioner audiences. Managers, analysts and technical practitioners in financial institutions across the world will have considerable interest in the book, and scholars and graduate students studying financial markets and business forecast will also have considerable interest in the book. The book discusses the most important advances in foreign-exchange-rate forecasting and then systematically develops a number of new, innovative, and creatively crafted neural network models that reduce the volatility and speculative risk in the forecasting of foreign exchange rates. The book discusses and illustrates three general types of ANN models. Each of these model types reflect the following innovative and effective characteristics: (1) The first model type is a three-layer, feed-forward neural network with instantaneous learning rates and adaptive momentum factors that produce learning algorithms (both online and offline algorithms) to predict foreign exchange rates. (2) The second model type is the three innovative hybrid learning algorithms that have been created by combining ANNs with exponential smoothing, generalized linear auto-regression, and genetic algorithms. Each of these three hybrid algorithms has been crafted to forecast various aspects synergetic performance. (3) The third model type is the three innovative ensemble learning algorithms that combining multiple neural networks into an ensemble output. Empirical results reveal that these creative models can produce better performance with high accuracy or high efficiency.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper presents new empirical results that elucidate the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half of the paper is an updated study of the exchange rate expectations held by market participants, as reflected in responses to surveys, and contains the following conclusions. First, the bias observed in the forward discount as a predictor of the future spot rate is not attributable to an exchange risk premium, as is conventionally believed. Second, at short horizons forecasters tend to extrapolate recent trends, while at long horizons they tend to forecast a reversal. Third, the bias in expectations is robust in the samples, based on eight years of data across five currencies. The second half of the paper abandons the framework in which all market participants share the same forecast, to focus on the importance of heterogeneous expectations. Tests suggest that dispersion of opinion, as reflected in the standard deviation across respondents in the survey, affects the volume of trading in the market, and, in turn, the degree of volatility of the exchange rate. An example of how conflicting forecasts can lead to swings in the exchange rate is the model of quot;chartists and fundamentalists.quot; The market weights assigned to the two models fluctuate over time in response to recent developments, leading to fluctuations in the demand for foreign currency. The paper ends with one piece of evidence to support the model: the fraction of foreign exchange forecasting services that use quot;technical analysisquot; did indeed increase sharply during 1983-85, but declined subsequently.
Book Synopsis Forecasting in Foreign Exchange Markets by : Chunchih Chen
Download or read book Forecasting in Foreign Exchange Markets written by Chunchih Chen and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock, and Bond Markets by :
Download or read book The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock, and Bond Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting Implied Volatility in Foreign Exchange Markets by : Fearghal Kearney
Download or read book Forecasting Implied Volatility in Foreign Exchange Markets written by Fearghal Kearney and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We utilise functional time series (FTS) techniques to characterise and forecast implied volatility in foreign exchange markets. In particular, we examine the daily implied volatility curves of FX options, namely; EUR-USD, EUR-GBP, and EUR-JPY. Based on existing techniques in the literature, the FTS model is shown to produce both realistic and plausible implied volatility shapes that closely match empirical data during the volatile 2006-2013 period. Furthermore, the FTS model significantly outperforms implied volatility forecasts produced by traditionally employed parametric models. The evaluation is performed under both an in-sample and out-of-sample testing framework with our fi ndings shown to be robust across various currencies, moneyness segments, contract maturities, forecasting horizons, and out-of-sample window lengths. The economic signi cance of the results is highlighted through the implementation of a simple trading strategy.
Book Synopsis Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market by : Wen-ling Tsai Lin
Download or read book Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Wen-ling Tsai Lin and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Testing the Informational Efficiency of OTC Options on Emerging Market Currencies by : Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Download or read book Testing the Informational Efficiency of OTC Options on Emerging Market Currencies written by Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Economies by : Abdulkader M. ALJANDALI
Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Economies written by Abdulkader M. ALJANDALI and published by Transnational Press London. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a contribution to the knowledge concerning the volatility and forecasting of exchange rates in the emerging markets. It focuses on the exchange rates of the leading trading blocs in that part of the world and examines exchange rates of selected emerging countries across continents in order to explain local and regional variations in exchange rates and the determinants of fluctuations in selected countries in Africa, Asia, Central and Latin America. Exchange rates of countries from the four different regions are investigated separately, followed by analysis within and across regions to identify common patterns of exchange rates fluctuations. Monthly forecasts are generated for a period of 24 months to test the performance of the times series, cointegration and combination techniques used in this book. The results show that exchange rates of countries in the same region behave similarly following a shock to the system. Additionally, exchange rates of countries at the same stage of development albeit in different geographical location (Central America, Southern Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia) share some similarities. In this book, I argue that all exchange rates examined have been volatile. Contents PrefaceChapter I. IntroductionChapter II. Foreign Exchange Forecasting using Macroeconomic VariablesChapter III. Empirical Methods and ApplicationsChapter IV. Times Series ForecastingChapter V. ARDL Cointegration ForecastingChapter VI Combination Forecasting of Exchange RatesChapter VII Conclusions, Summary and Recommendations for Policy MakersAppendix 1 Exchange rate plots over time
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
