Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Precautionary Savings In The Great Recession
Download Precautionary Savings In The Great Recession full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Precautionary Savings In The Great Recession ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession by : Mr.Ashoka Mody
Download or read book Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession written by Mr.Ashoka Mody and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-02-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Heightened uncertainty since the onset of the Great Recession has materially increased saving rates, contributing to lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a panel of advanced economies that greater labor income uncertainty is significantly associated with higher household savings. These results are robust to controlling for other determinants of saving rates, including wealth-to-income ratios, the government fiscal balance, demographics, credit conditions, and global growth and financial stress. Our estimates imply that at least two-fifths of the sharp increase in household saving rates between 2007 and 2009 can be attributed to the precautionary savings motive.
Book Synopsis Income Uncertainty and Precautionary Savings Before and After the Great Recession by : Catherine Willemin
Download or read book Income Uncertainty and Precautionary Savings Before and After the Great Recession written by Catherine Willemin and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Precautionary savings is important in helping households to weather short-term fluctuations in income and expenses. While many papers have previously estimated the effect of income uncertainty on savings, this paper examines the possibility that the precautionary savings motive changes in response to the macroeconomic environment. This paper uses data from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) before and after the most recent recession to estimate the effect of income uncertainty on emergency savings through the use of logit and OLS regression models. The results show that after the recession, people without income certainty for the following year see their savings decline significantly; those with income certainty for the following year see their savings stay flat or even increase. This suggests that there may be an additional precautionary savings motivation that is cued by the recession as people become more alert to the potential need for emergency savings. However, only some groups are actually able to act on this motive to maintain or increase savings, since some are already feeling the negative effects of the recession on the household level. This paper generally highlights the need for more policy attention to the gap in short-term emergency savings. Additionally, the results suggest that particular attention should be focused on helping people take advantage of good financial years to build an emergency savings buffer.
Book Synopsis Keep Calm and Consume? Subjective Uncertainty and Precautionary Savings by : Barbara Broadway
Download or read book Keep Calm and Consume? Subjective Uncertainty and Precautionary Savings written by Barbara Broadway and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates the effect of income uncertainty on assets held in accounts and cash, and finds substantial empirical evidence for precautionary savings. Using household-level panel data, it explicitly distinguishes between 'real' income uncertainty the household is actually exposed to, and 'perceived' income uncertainty. It finds that the latter substantially increases precautionary savings above and beyond the effect of 'real' income uncertainty. The effect of subjective economic uncertainty on behaviour has only begun to show up after the Great Recession. The economic crisis appears to have shifted households' willingness to forgo current consumption for insurance purposes. Our results imply that households save above their optimal level especially after and during a crisis, potentially exacerbating the economic downturn.
Book Synopsis Precautionary Saving and Aggregate Demand by : Edouard Challe
Download or read book Precautionary Saving and Aggregate Demand written by Edouard Challe and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dissecting Saving Dynamics by : Mr.Christopher Carroll
Download or read book Dissecting Saving Dynamics written by Mr.Christopher Carroll and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-09-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate’s long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.
Book Synopsis Dissecting Savings Dynamics by : Chris Carroll
Download or read book Dissecting Savings Dynamics written by Chris Carroll and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that an estimated tractable ‘buffer stock saving’ model can match the 30-year decline in the U.S. saving rate leading up to 2007, the sharp increase during the Great Recession, and much of the intervening business cycle variation. In the model, saving depends on the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target determined by measured credit availability and measured unemployment expectations. Following financial deregulation starting in the late 1970s, expanding credit supply explains the trend decline in saving, while fluctuations in wealth and consumer-survey-measured unemployment expectations capture much of the business-cycle variation, including the sharp rise during the Great Recession.
Book Synopsis Dissecting Saving Dynamics by : Chris Carroll
Download or read book Dissecting Saving Dynamics written by Chris Carroll and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that an estimated tractable 'buffer stock saving' model can match the 30-year decline in the U.S. saving rate leading up to 2007, the sharp increase during the Great Recession, and much of the intervening business cycle variation. In the model, saving depends on the gap between 'target' and actual wealth, with the target determined by measured credit availability and measured unemployment expectations. Following financial deregulation starting in the late 1970s, expanding credit supply explains the trend decline in saving, while fluctuations in wealth and consumer-survey-measured unemployment expectations capture much of the business-cycle variation, including the sharp rise during the Great Recession.
Book Synopsis Household Leverage and the Recession by : Callum Jones
Download or read book Household Leverage and the Recession written by Callum Jones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-30 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate and partially challenge the ‘household leverage’ view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40 percent of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2008-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.
Book Synopsis Household Debt and Uncertainty by : Ángel Estrada
Download or read book Household Debt and Uncertainty written by Ángel Estrada and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Household debt in many advanced economies has increased significantly since the 1980s and accelerated in the years prior to the Great Recession, resulting in an aggregate reduction of saving rates in the developed economies. Some of those economies are now deleveraging, which may be affecting their recovery. We try to disentangle how these financial developments influence private consumption in a panel of OECD countries, after controlling for the traditional determinants (income, net financial and non-financial wealth, and interest rates). Consistent with the changes in the distribution of financial constraints, we find that aggregate consumption is also driven by the dynamics of housing debt accumulation and deleveraging. Precautionary savings, due to labour income uncertainty, have also influenced household decisions especially, during the 2007-2009 period.
Book Synopsis Firms' Precautionary Savings and Employment During a Credit Crisis by : Davide Melcangi
Download or read book Firms' Precautionary Savings and Employment During a Credit Crisis written by Davide Melcangi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks be large even when a small share of firms are credit-constrained? I use U.K. firm-level accounting data to discipline a heterogeneous-firm model in which the interaction between real and financial frictions induces precautionary cash holdings. In the data, firms increased their cash ratios during the last recession, and cash-intensive firms displayed higher employment growth. A tightening of firms' credit conditions generates the same dynamics in the model. Unconstrained firms pre-emptively respond to credit supply shocks, and this precautionary channel crucially matters for the aggregate dynamics and the model fit with microeconomic data.
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Wage-Led Growth by : Engelbert Stockhammer
Download or read book Wage-Led Growth written by Engelbert Stockhammer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-12-03 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume seeks to go beyond the microeconomic view of wages as a cost having negative consequences on a given firm, to consider the positive macroeconomic dynamics associated with wages as a major component of aggregate demand.
Book Synopsis Essays in Macroeconomic Dynamics Over Severe Recessions by : Benjamin Barfod Lidofsky
Download or read book Essays in Macroeconomic Dynamics Over Severe Recessions written by Benjamin Barfod Lidofsky and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In these essays, I study macroeconomic responses to large recessions, in environments with heterogeneous agents. In the first chapter, "Long-Term Debt, Default Risk, and Policy Transmission during Severe Recessions", I study the implications of rollover risk on firm-level investment and aggregate dynamics. A growing empirical literature suggests that the maturity risk associated with long-term debt reduces firm-level investment, particularly during recessions. I introduce discretely maturing long-term debt into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where heterogeneous firms borrow subject to default risk. My model is distinguished relative to existing long-term debt models in that it captures the rollover risk arising from uncertainty about what economic conditions will be when debt matures. Moreover, my firms actively save in a short-term financial asset to help hedge against the maturity risk associated with their debt. Nonetheless, the rollover risk associated with discretely maturing long-term debt exacerbates the debt overhang problem arising in conventional long-term debt models. Thus, firms effectively face greater financial frictions, and output is on average lower. Consequently, my model predicts a larger rise in defaults and a greater decline in endogenous aggregate productivity in its response to a financial shock. Thus, its financial recessions are both deeper and longer-lived than in conventional models. I also consider a large non-financial aggregate shock, and use my model to study the efficacy of targeted stimulus policies implemented over the U.S. 2020 recession. My findings suggest that the combined effects of the Paycheck Protection Program and the expansion of quantitative easing helped stem the rise in defaults and stimulate the subsequent economic recovery. The second chapter, "The Persistence of Recessions with Incomplete Markets and Time-Varying Risk" (joint with Aubhik Khan), studies the implications of precautionary savings behavior across households on aggregate responses to crises. We study the propagation of recessions in overlapping generations economies wherein households, with uncertain lifetimes and uninsurable earnings risk, face cyclical employment risk. Business cycles are driven by persistent shocks to TFP growth and household-level employment. Increases in employment risk cause fluctuations in both the unemployment rate and in labor force participation. In this setting, we introduce elements commonly used to deliver a strong and countercyclical precautionary savings motive. Specifically, households have non-separable utility characterized by high levels of risk aversion, and a diminishing marginal productivity of investment leads to a time-varying price of capital. We find that changes in precautionary savings, following aggregate shocks, have important implications for aggregate consumption. Persistent negative shocks to TFP growth, associated with increases in risk to employment, drive large declines in consumption. This helps explain the large fall in consumption observed over the Great Recession. An empirically consistent, moderate shock to TFP growth rates implies a large and persistent fall, against trend, in aggregate consumption. Moreover, an estimated rise in households' risk of long-term non-employment reduces labor force participation and reconciles the swift recovery in TFP growth rates with a protracted decline in consumption and output.
Book Synopsis Inequality, Leverage and Crises by : Mr.Michael Kumhof
Download or read book Inequality, Leverage and Crises written by Mr.Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective.
Book Synopsis A Decade after the Global Recession by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book A Decade after the Global Recession written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-19 with total page 475 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
Book Synopsis Confronting Policy Challenges of the Great Recession by : Eskander Alvi
Download or read book Confronting Policy Challenges of the Great Recession written by Eskander Alvi and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2017-11-20 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a notable group of macroeconomists who describe the unprecedented events and often extraordinary policies put in place to limit the economic damage suffered during the Great Recession and then to put the economy back on track. Contributers include Barry Eichengreen; Gary Burtless; Donald Kohn; Laurence Ball, J. Bradford DeLong, and Lawrence H. Summers; and Kathryn M.E. Dominguez.
Book Synopsis Hall of Mirrors by : Barry J. Eichengreen
Download or read book Hall of Mirrors written by Barry J. Eichengreen and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2015 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A brilliantly conceived dual-track account of the two greatest economic crises of the last century and their consequences"--
