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Policy Vulnerability And The New Debt Sustainability Framework
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Book Synopsis Policy, Vulnerability and the New Debt Sustainability Framework by : Benno Ferrarini
Download or read book Policy, Vulnerability and the New Debt Sustainability Framework written by Benno Ferrarini and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the empirical foundations of the New Debt Sustainability Framework (NDSF), which was recently endorsed by the IMF and the World Bank in support of low income countries' (LICs) debt sustainability. Our empirical re-assessment questions the existence of a probabilistic relationship between the quality of countries' policies and institutions and their risk of debt distress. In contrast, we find that indicators of economic vulnerability are more significant predictors of debt distress among LICs. We argue that the NDSF is bound to distort aid allocation away from the country-specific circumstances which truly matter for the achievement of debt sustainability.
Book Synopsis Proposal for a Contingency Debt Sustainability Framework by : Benno Ferrarini
Download or read book Proposal for a Contingency Debt Sustainability Framework written by Benno Ferrarini and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We argue that the New Debt Sustainability Framework (NDSF) of the World Bank and IMF is centered on the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) to suit the aid allocation mechanism of the International Development Association (IDA), but fails to deal effectively with the economic vulnerability of low-income countries. Instead, we propose a Contingency Debt Sustainability Framework (CDSF), which identifies the sources of vulnerability and compensates for exogenous shock and trend factors. Without giving rise to significant moral hazard implications, the CDSF is thus suitable to effectively shield low-income countries from the main external causes undermining their achievement of debt sustainability.
Book Synopsis Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries by :
Download or read book Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework by : Ms.Elena Loukoianova
Download or read book A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework written by Ms.Elena Loukoianova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-02-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513568329 Total Pages :124 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Download or read book Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-03 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.
Book Synopsis A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability by : Murray Petrie
Download or read book A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability written by Murray Petrie and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal vulnerability describes a situation where a government is exposed to the possibility of failure to meet its aggregate fiscal policy objectives. The focus in this paper is on fiscal vulnerability from a macroeconomic perspective, and the suggested framework for assessing vulnerability highlights four macro-fiscal aspects of vulnerability: incorrect specification of the initial fiscal position; sensitivity of short-term fiscal outcomes to risk; threats to longer- term fiscal sustainability; and structural or institutional weaknesses affecting the design and implementation of fiscal policy.
Book Synopsis A Risk-based Debt Sustainability Framework by :
Download or read book A Risk-based Debt Sustainability Framework written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.
Author :International Monetary Fund Strategy, Policy, and Review Department Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :0 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (14 download)
Book Synopsis Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries by : International Monetary Fund Strategy, Policy, and Review Department
Download or read book Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund Strategy, Policy, and Review Department and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF's lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.
Book Synopsis Public Debt Sustainability by : Xavier Debrun
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability written by Xavier Debrun and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why can Japan sustain debts above 200 percent of GDP, while Ukraine defaulted on its debt when it was 30 percent of GDP? Answering that question is challenging. First, debt sustainability does not easily translate into operational concepts and indicators. Second, servicing the debt is a strategic decision, the result of a cost-benefit analysis. Thus markets can always, for good or bad reasons, question governments' commitment to face their financial obligations. Third, uncertainty around public debt developments is large and difficult to model. Fourth, not all debts are born equal, as the currency composition, maturity structure, type of creditor and ownership of the debt affect exposure to rollover and liquidity risks. The paper surveys the knowns and unknowns of debt sustainability, including the tools helping us to understand vulnerabilities and to inform our judgment. Instead of embarking on the impossible mission to build a holistic, consistent and broadly-accepted debt-sustainability framework for practitioners, we take the more modest approach to review some of the key economic principles and statistical methods that form today's leading practice in debt sustainability assessments.
Book Synopsis Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-06 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in market-access countries (MACs) was reviewed by the Executive Board in August 2011.1 The review responded to shortcomings in identifying fiscal vulnerabilities and assessing risks to debt sustainability against the backdrop of increased concerns over fiscal policy and public debt sustainability in many advanced economies.
Book Synopsis A Framework for Fiscal Vulnerability Assessment and Its Application to Poland by : Tomasz Jedrzejowicz
Download or read book A Framework for Fiscal Vulnerability Assessment and Its Application to Poland written by Tomasz Jedrzejowicz and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp worsening of fiscal positions in the aftermath of the global economic crisis has brought the issues of fiscal sustainability to the fore of economic policy debate. This has focused the attention of policymakers on the broader implications of unsustainable fiscal positions, including the consequences for monetary policy and financial stability. As a result, there is now an increased need for central banks to closely monitor risks to fiscal vulnerability. This note proposes a framework for such an assessment, consisting of five elements: (i) the level of public debt; (ii) the medium-term dynamics of public debt; (iii) longterm sustainability of public debt; (iv) public debt management and the liquidity position of the government; and (v) fiscal rules and institutions. The note also presents a brief assessment of Poland's fiscal vulnerability using the framework described above, and finds that Poland's vulnerability to fiscal risks is quite limited, although there is still a need to correct the fiscal imbalances that could otherwise lead to a build-up of public debt.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2205164" Fiscal Policy, Public Debt and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies.
Book Synopsis The Prospects of International Trade Regulation by : Thomas Cottier
Download or read book The Prospects of International Trade Regulation written by Thomas Cottier and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-04-14 with total page 535 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For a long time, the GATT led a life of its own as a self-contained regime. The evolution from tariff to non-tariff barriers brought about increasing overlaps with other regulatory areas. WTO rules increasingly interface with other areas of law and policy, including environmental protection, agricultural policies, labour standards, investment, human rights and regional integration. Against this backdrop, this book examines fragmentation in international trade regulation across a wide array of regulatory fields. To this end, it uses a conceptually coherent theoretical framework which is based on the effort to bring about greater coherence among different policy goals and fields, and thus to embed the multilateral trading system within the broader framework of international economics, law and relations. It will appeal to those interested in a forward-looking discussion of the most pressing issues of the international trade agenda.
Book Synopsis External debt and macroeconomic vulnerability by : Benno Ferrarini
Download or read book External debt and macroeconomic vulnerability written by Benno Ferrarini and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 614 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Greece written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the last review in May 2014, Greece's public debt was assessed to be getting back on a path toward sustainability, though it remained highly vulnerable to shocks. By late summer 2014, with interest rates having declined further, it appeared that no further debt relief would have been needed under the November 2012 framework, if the program were to have been implemented as agreed. But significant changes in policies since then---not least, lower primary surpluses and a weak reform effort that will weigh on growth and privatization---are leading to substantial new financing needs. Coming on top of the very high existing debt, these new financing needs render the debt dynamics unsustainable. This conclusion holds whether one examines the stock of debt under the November 2012 framework or switches the focus to debt servicing or gross financing needs. To ensure that debt is sustainable with high probability, Greek policies will need to come back on track but also, at a minimum, the maturities of existing European loans will need to be extended significantly while new European financing to meet financing needs over the coming years will need to be provided on similar concessional terms. But if the package of reforms under consideration is weakened further---in particular, through a further lowering of primary surplus targets and even weaker structural reforms---haircuts on debt will become necessary.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia by : Benno Ferrarini
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia written by Benno Ferrarini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing the global financial crisis has required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent buildup of public debt, in particular its sustainability, has moved to center stage in the policy debate. If the Asia and Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth, its public debt must be sustainable. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia addresses this issue for Asia and the Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons for increased attention to debt-related issues. It also introduces fiscal indicators for the Asian Development. Bank’s developing member countries and economies. The sustainability of their debt is assessed through extant approaches and with the most up-to-date data sources. The book also surveys the existing literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to it, and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. Also highlighted is the importance of conducting individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g., federal), and the like, as well as the impact of debt on interest rates. The book further provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses for the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia offers a comprehensive analytical and empirical update on the sustainability of public debt in the region. It breaks new ground in examining characteristics that are crucial to understanding sustainability and offers richer policy analysis that should prove useful for policymakers, researchers, and graduate students.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
