Pivotal Countries Alternate Futures

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Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures

Author : Michael F. Oppenheimer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190493887
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (94 download)

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Book Synopsis Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures by : Michael F. Oppenheimer

Download or read book Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures written by Michael F. Oppenheimer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China and Syria. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.

Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures

Author : Michael F. Oppenheimer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199397090
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (993 download)

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Book Synopsis Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures by : Michael F. Oppenheimer

Download or read book Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures written by Michael F. Oppenheimer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China and Syria. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.

The Future of War

Author : Lawrence Freedman
Publisher : PublicAffairs
ISBN 13 : 1610393066
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis The Future of War by : Lawrence Freedman

Download or read book The Future of War written by Lawrence Freedman and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2017-10-10 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An award-winning military historian, professor, and political adviser delivers the definitive story of warfare in all its guises and applications, showing what has driven and continues to drive this uniquely human form of political violence. Questions about the future of war are a regular feature of political debate, strategic analysis, and popular fiction. Where should we look for new dangers? What cunning plans might an aggressor have in mind? What are the best forms of defense? How might peace be preserved or conflict resolved? From the French rout at Sedan in 1870 to the relentless contemporary insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, Lawrence Freedman, a world-renowned military thinker, reveals how most claims from the military futurists are wrong. But they remain influential nonetheless. Freedman shows how those who have imagined future war have often had an idealized notion of it as confined, brief, and decisive, and have regularly taken insufficient account of the possibility of long wars-hence the stubborn persistence of the idea of a knockout blow, whether through a dashing land offensive, nuclear first strike, or cyberattack. He also notes the lack of attention paid to civil wars until the West began to intervene in them during the 1990s, and how the boundaries between peace and war, between the military, the civilian, and the criminal are becoming increasingly blurred. Freedman's account of a century and a half of warfare and the (often misconceived) thinking that precedes war is a challenge to hawks and doves alike, and puts current strategic thinking into a bracing historical perspective.

The Future of Global Affairs

Author : Christopher Ankersen
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030564703
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis The Future of Global Affairs by : Christopher Ankersen

Download or read book The Future of Global Affairs written by Christopher Ankersen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-01 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book has two aims: first, to examines the evolving role of the state, and non-state actors, coupled with trends – including globalization, populism, post-truth, enlightened capitalism, feminist foreign policy, energy disruption, climate change, emerging cyber and other technologies, and the crisis in UN-centered multilateralism, to offer a prescient assessment of global affairs in the near future; and, second, to solidify the transdisciplinary nature of Global Affairs as a field of study that transcends the traditional conceptual silos.

Assessing the Societal Implications of Emerging Technologies

Author : Evan S. Michelson
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317302230
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (173 download)

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Book Synopsis Assessing the Societal Implications of Emerging Technologies by : Evan S. Michelson

Download or read book Assessing the Societal Implications of Emerging Technologies written by Evan S. Michelson and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-05-12 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A growing problem of interest in the field of science and technology policy is that the next generation of innovations is arriving at an accelerating rate, and the governance system is struggling to catch up. Current approaches and institutions for effective technology assessment are ill suited and poorly designed to proactively address the multidimensional, interconnected societal impacts of science and technology advancements that are already taking place and expected to continue over the course of the 21st century. This book offers tangible insights into the strategies deployed by well-known, high-profile organizations involved in anticipating the various societal and policy implications of nanotechnology and synthetic biology. It focuses predominantly on an examination of the practices adopted by the often-cited and uniquely positioned Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies in the United States, as well as being informed by comparisons with a range of institutions also interested in embedding forward-looking perspectives in their respective area of innovation. The book lays out one of the first actionable roadmaps that other interested stakeholders can follow when working toward institutionalizing anticipatory governance practices throughout the policymaking process.

What We Owe the Future

Author : William MacAskill
Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 1541618637
Total Pages : 423 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (416 download)

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Book Synopsis What We Owe the Future by : William MacAskill

Download or read book What We Owe the Future written by William MacAskill and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2022-08-16 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Instant New York Times Bestseller “This book will change your sense of how grand the sweep of human history could be, where you fit into it, and how much you could do to change it for the better. It's as simple, and as ambitious, as that.” —Ezra Klein An Oxford philosopher makes the case for “longtermism” — that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time. The fate of the world is in our hands. Humanity’s written history spans only five thousand years. Our yet-unwritten future could last for millions more — or it could end tomorrow. Astonishing numbers of people could lead lives of great happiness or unimaginable suffering, or never live at all, depending on what we choose to do today. In What We Owe The Future, philosopher William MacAskill argues for longtermism, that idea that positively influencing the distant future is a key moral priority of our time. From this perspective, it’s not enough to reverse climate change or avert the next pandemic. We must ensure that civilization would rebound if it collapsed; counter the end of moral progress; and prepare for a planet where the smartest beings are digital, not human. If we make wise choices today, our grandchildren’s grandchildren will thrive, knowing we did everything we could to give them a world full of justice, hope and beauty.

The Next American Century

Author : Nina Hachigian
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1416553347
Total Pages : 377 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (165 download)

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Book Synopsis The Next American Century by : Nina Hachigian

Download or read book The Next American Century written by Nina Hachigian and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2008-01-08 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rise of other global powers is most often posed as a sorry tale, full of threats to America's primacy, prosperity, and way of life. The potential loss of our #1 status implies a blow to our safety, economy, and prestige. But this is a rare moment in history: none of the world's big powers is our adversaries. In The Next American Century, Nina Hachigian and Mona Sutphen show that the "pivotal powers" -- China, Europe, India, Japan, and Russia -- seek greater influence, but each has an enormous stake in the world economy and a keen desire to thwart common threats. India is a key ally in the struggle against terrorism. China's help is essential to containing pandemic disease. Russia is leading an effort to keep nuclear devices out of terrorists' hands. Japan and Europe are critical partners in tackling climate change. None of these countries is a direct military or ideological challenger. In fact, their gains largely help, rather than hurt, America's continuing prosperity, growth, and, to some extent, even its values. Will we have conflicts with these powers? Definitely. Some will be serious. But, by and large, they want what we want: a stable world and better lives for their citizens. We live in an era of opportunity, not of loss. To take advantage of this moment, the United States must get its own house in order, making sure that American children can compete, American workers can adjust, America's military remains cutting-edge, and American diplomacy entices rather than alienates. While America must be prepared for the possibility that a hostile superpower may one day emerge, it has to be careful not to turn a distant, uncertain threat into an immediate one. Washington should welcome the pivotal powers into a vigorous international order to share the burden of solving pressing global problems of peace, climate, health, and growth. The avenue to a truly safer and more prosperous world runs through the pivotal powers. With them, we can build a world where Americans will thrive, today and tomorrow.

Discerning Experts

Author : Michael Oppenheimer
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022660201X
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (266 download)

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Book Synopsis Discerning Experts by : Michael Oppenheimer

Download or read book Discerning Experts written by Michael Oppenheimer and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2019-03-07 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discerning Experts assesses the assessments that many governments rely on to help guide environmental policy and action. Through their close look at environmental assessments involving acid rain, ozone depletion, and sea level rise, the authors explore how experts deliberate and decide on the scientific facts about problems like climate change. They also seek to understand how the scientists involved make the judgments they do, how the organization and management of assessment activities affects those judgments, and how expertise is identified and constructed. Discerning Experts uncovers factors that can generate systematic bias and error, and recommends how the process can be improved. As the first study of the internal workings of large environmental assessments, this book reveals their strengths and weaknesses, and explains what assessments can—and cannot—be expected to contribute to public policy and the common good.

China's Economic Transition, 1978-2000 -- an Alternative Institutional Analysis

Author : Stanley Zhao-xiong Yang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 824 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis China's Economic Transition, 1978-2000 -- an Alternative Institutional Analysis by : Stanley Zhao-xiong Yang

Download or read book China's Economic Transition, 1978-2000 -- an Alternative Institutional Analysis written by Stanley Zhao-xiong Yang and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 824 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Global Trends 2030

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646797721
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (977 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trends 2030 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2030 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2018-02-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important report, Global Trends 2030-Alternative Worlds, released in 2012 by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. Among the megatrends, it analyzes: - increased individual empowerment - the diffusion of power among states and the ascent of a networked multi-polar world - a world's population growing to 8.3 billion people, of which sixty percent will live in urbanized areas, and surging cross-border migration - expanding demand for food, water, and energy It furthermore describes potential game changers, including: - a global economy that could thrive or collapse - increased global insecurity due to regional instability in the Middle East and South Asia - new technologies that could solve the problems caused by the megatrends - the possibility, but by no means the certainty, that the U.S. with new partners will reinvent the international system Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.

The Pivotal Generation

Author : Henry Shue
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691226261
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis The Pivotal Generation by : Henry Shue

Download or read book The Pivotal Generation written by Henry Shue and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2024-08-20 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An eminent philosopher explains why we owe it to future generations to take immediate action on global warming Climate change is the supreme challenge of our time. Yet despite growing international recognition of the unfolding catastrophe, global carbon emissions continue to rise, hitting an all-time high in 2019. Unless humanity rapidly transitions to renewable energy, it may be too late to stop irreversible ecological damage. In The Pivotal Generation, renowned political philosopher Henry Shue makes an impassioned case for taking immediate, radical action to combat global warming. Shue grounds his argument in a rigorous philosophical analysis of climate change’s moral implications. Unlike previous generations, which didn’t fully understand the danger of burning carbon, we have the knowledge to comprehend and control rising carbon dioxide levels. And unlike future generations, we still have time to mitigate the worst effects of global warming. This generation has the power, and thus the responsibility, to save the planet. Shirking that responsibility only leaves the next generation with an even heavier burden—one they may find impossible to bear. Written in direct, accessible language, The Pivotal Generation approaches the latest scientific research with a singular moral clarity. It’s an urgently needed call to action for anyone concerned about the planet’s future.

Monsoon

Author : Robert D. Kaplan
Publisher : Random House Trade Paperbacks
ISBN 13 : 0812979206
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Monsoon by : Robert D. Kaplan

Download or read book Monsoon written by Robert D. Kaplan and published by Random House Trade Paperbacks. This book was released on 2011-09-13 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the world maps common in America, the Western Hemisphere lies front and center, while the Indian Ocean region all but disappears. This convention reveals the geopolitical focus of the now-departed twentieth century, but in the twenty-first century that focus will fundamentally change. In this pivotal examination of the countries known as “Monsoon Asia”—which include India, Pakistan, China, Indonesia, Burma, Oman, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Tanzania—bestselling author Robert D. Kaplan shows how crucial this dynamic area has become to American power. It is here that the fight for democracy, energy independence, and religious freedom will be lost or won, and it is here that American foreign policy must concentrate if the United States is to remain relevant in an ever-changing world. From the Horn of Africa to the Indonesian archipelago and beyond, Kaplan exposes the effects of population growth, climate change, and extremist politics on this unstable region, demonstrating why Americans can no longer afford to ignore this important area of the world.

Pivot Point

Author : Kasie West
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN 13 : 0062117408
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (621 download)

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Book Synopsis Pivot Point by : Kasie West

Download or read book Pivot Point written by Kasie West and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2013-02-12 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Perfect for fans of Sliding Doors, Kasie West's riveting novel Pivot Point follows a girl with the power to see her potential futures. Addison Coleman's life is one big "What if?" As a Searcher, a special type of clairvoyant, whenever Addie is faced with a choice, she is able to look into the future and see both outcomes. So when her parents tell her they are getting a divorce and she has to pick who she wants to live with, a Search has never been more important. In one future Addie is living with her mom in the life she's always known and is being pursued by the most popular guy in school. In the other she is the new girl in school, where she falls for a cute, quiet artist. Then Addie finds herself drawn into a murder investigation, and her fate takes a darker turn. With so much to lose in either future, Addie must decide which reality she's willing to live through . . . and who she's willing to live without.

A History of Knowledge

Author : Charles Van Doren
Publisher : Ballantine Books
ISBN 13 : 0345373162
Total Pages : 450 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (453 download)

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Book Synopsis A History of Knowledge by : Charles Van Doren

Download or read book A History of Knowledge written by Charles Van Doren and published by Ballantine Books. This book was released on 1992-03-17 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A one-voume reference to the history of ideas that is a compendium of everything that humankind has thought, invented, created, considered, and perfected from the beginning of civilization into the twenty-first century. Massive in its scope, and yet totally accessible, A HISTORY OF KNOWLEDGE covers not only all the great theories and discoveries of the human race, but also explores the social conditions, political climates, and individual men and women of genius that brought ideas to fruition throughout history. "Crystal clear and concise...Explains how humankind got to know what it knows." Clifton Fadiman Selected by the Book-of-the-Month Club and the History Book Club

Upheaval

Author : Jared Diamond
Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 0316409154
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (164 download)

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Book Synopsis Upheaval by : Jared Diamond

Download or read book Upheaval written by Jared Diamond and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2019-05-07 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A "riveting and illuminating" Bill Gates Summer Reading pick about how and why some nations recover from trauma and others don't (Yuval Noah Harari), by the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of the landmark bestseller Guns, Germs, and Steel. In his international bestsellers Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse, Jared Diamond transformed our understanding of what makes civilizations rise and fall. Now, in his third book in this monumental trilogy, he reveals how successful nations recover from crises while adopting selective changes -- a coping mechanism more commonly associated with individuals recovering from personal crises. Diamond compares how six countries have survived recent upheavals -- ranging from the forced opening of Japan by U.S. Commodore Perry's fleet, to the Soviet Union's attack on Finland, to a murderous coup or countercoup in Chile and Indonesia, to the transformations of Germany and Austria after World War Two. Because Diamond has lived and spoken the language in five of these six countries, he can present gut-wrenching histories experienced firsthand. These nations coped, to varying degrees, through mechanisms such as acknowledgment of responsibility, painfully honest self-appraisal, and learning from models of other nations. Looking to the future, Diamond examines whether the United States, Japan, and the whole world are successfully coping with the grave crises they currently face. Can we learn from lessons of the past? Adding a psychological dimension to the in-depth history, geography, biology, and anthropology that mark all of Diamond's books, Upheaval reveals factors influencing how both whole nations and individual people can respond to big challenges. The result is a book epic in scope, but also his most personal yet.

Alternative Educational Futures

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Alternative Educational Futures by :

Download or read book Alternative Educational Futures written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Global Trends 2030

Author : National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Publisher : U.S. Government Printing Office
ISBN 13 : 9780160915437
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (154 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Trends 2030 by : National Intelligence Council (U.S.)

Download or read book Global Trends 2030 written by National Intelligence Council (U.S.) and published by U.S. Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2012 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC's previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future, which would be an impossible feat, but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries, from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups, to solicit reviews of the report.