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Parameter Based Decision Making Under Estimation Risk
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Book Synopsis Portfolio Decision Analysis by : Ahti Salo
Download or read book Portfolio Decision Analysis written by Ahti Salo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-12 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.
Book Synopsis Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine by : Marthe R. Gold
Download or read book Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine written by Marthe R. Gold and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1996-07-18 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique, in-depth discussion of the uses and conduct of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) as decision-making aids in the health and medical fields, this volume is the product of over two years of comprehensive research and deliberation by a multi-disciplinary panel of economists, ethicists, psychometricians, and clinicians. Exploring cost-effectiveness in the context of societal decision-making for resource allocation purposes, this volume proposes that analysts include a "reference-case" analysis in all CEAs designed to inform resource allocation and puts forth the most explicit set of guidelines (together with their rationale) ever defined on the conduct of CEAs. Important theoretical and practical issues encountered in measuring costs and effectiveness, evaluating outcomes, discounting, and dealing with uncertainty are examined in separate chapters. Additional chapters on framing and reporting of CEAs elucidate the purpose of the analysis and the effective communication of its findings. Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine differs from the available literature in several key aspects. Most importantly, it represents a consensus on standard methods--a feature integral to a CEA, whose principal goal is to permit comparisons of the costs and health outcomes of alternative ways of improving health. The detailed level at which the discussion is offered is another major distinction of this book, since guidelines in journal literature and in CEA-related books tend to be rather general--to the extent that the analyst is left with little guidance on specific matters. The focused overview of the theoretical background underlying areas of controversy and of methodological alternatives, and, finally, the accessible writing style make this volume a top choice on the reading lists of analysts in medicine and public health who wish to improve practice and comparability of CEAs. The book will also appeal to decision-makers in government, managed care, and industry who wish to consider the uses and limitations of CEAs.
Book Synopsis Advanced Methodologies and Technologies in Business Operations and Management by : Khosrow-Pour, D.B.A., Mehdi
Download or read book Advanced Methodologies and Technologies in Business Operations and Management written by Khosrow-Pour, D.B.A., Mehdi and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-09-14 with total page 1482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Businesses consistently work on new projects, products, and workflows to remain competitive and successful in the modern business environment. To remain zealous, businesses must employ the most effective methods and tools in human resources, project management, and overall business plan execution as competitors work to succeed as well. Advanced Methodologies and Technologies in Business Operations and Management provides emerging research on business tools such as employee engagement, payout policies, and financial investing to promote operational success. While highlighting the challenges facing modern organizations, readers will learn how corporate social responsibility and utilizing artificial intelligence improve a company’s culture and management. This book is an ideal resource for executives and managers, researchers, accountants, and financial investors seeking current research on business operations and management.
Book Synopsis Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making by : Leonard C. MacLean
Download or read book Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).
Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Fourth Edition by : Khosrow-Pour, D.B.A., Mehdi
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Fourth Edition written by Khosrow-Pour, D.B.A., Mehdi and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2017-06-20 with total page 8356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, our world has experienced a profound shift and progression in available computing and knowledge sharing innovations. These emerging advancements have developed at a rapid pace, disseminating into and affecting numerous aspects of contemporary society. This has created a pivotal need for an innovative compendium encompassing the latest trends, concepts, and issues surrounding this relevant discipline area. During the past 15 years, the Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology has become recognized as one of the landmark sources of the latest knowledge and discoveries in this discipline. The Encyclopedia of Information Science and Technology, Fourth Edition is a 10-volume set which includes 705 original and previously unpublished research articles covering a full range of perspectives, applications, and techniques contributed by thousands of experts and researchers from around the globe. This authoritative encyclopedia is an all-encompassing, well-established reference source that is ideally designed to disseminate the most forward-thinking and diverse research findings. With critical perspectives on the impact of information science management and new technologies in modern settings, including but not limited to computer science, education, healthcare, government, engineering, business, and natural and physical sciences, it is a pivotal and relevant source of knowledge that will benefit every professional within the field of information science and technology and is an invaluable addition to every academic and corporate library.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Economics Through Numerical Methods by : Jeffrey H. Dorfman
Download or read book Bayesian Economics Through Numerical Methods written by Jeffrey H. Dorfman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-03-31 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing researchers in economics, finance, and statistics with an up-to-date introduction to applying Bayesian techniques to empirical studies, this book covers the full range of the new numerical techniques which have been developed over the last thirty years. Notably, these are: Monte Carlo sampling, antithetic replication, importance sampling, and Gibbs sampling. The author covers both advances in theory and modern approaches to numerical and applied problems, and includes applications drawn from a variety of different fields within economics, while also providing a quick overview of the underlying statistical ideas of Bayesian thought. The result is a book which presents a roadmap of applied economic questions that can now be addressed empirically with Bayesian methods. Consequently, many researchers will find this a readily readable survey of this growing topic.
Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine
Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Book Synopsis The Neuroscience and Psychophysiology of Experience-Based Decisions by : Eldad Yechiam
Download or read book The Neuroscience and Psychophysiology of Experience-Based Decisions written by Eldad Yechiam and published by Frontiers E-books. This book was released on with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In experience-based decisions people learn to make decisions by sampling the relevant alternatives and getting feedback. The study of experience-based decisions has recently revealed some robust regularities that differ from how people make decisions based on descriptions. For example, people were found to underweight small probability events in experience-based decisions, while overweighting them in decisions based on descriptions (i.e. where the participants have full information about the outcome distributions but no feedback). This is now commonly referred to as the description-experience gap. In parallel to the recent advancement in Decision Science, neuroscientists have for a long while used the experience-based decisions paradigm for analyzing brain-behavior interactions. For example, phenomena such as the feedback-based Error-Related Negativity (fERN) in event-related potentials and the role of non-declarative knowledge in selecting advantageously were discovered using experience-based tasks. The goal of the current Research Topic is to combine two sources of knowledge concerning experience-based decisions: State of the art models in decision science, and neuroscientific and psychophysiological approaches that shed light on the working of the brain in these decisions. Also relevant are process-based analyses of fractions of behavior in these types of decisions. We consider original empirical work and theoretical analyses of existing datasets.
Book Synopsis Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by : National Research Council
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Download or read book Volatility written by Robert A. Jarrow and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by a number of authors, this text is aimed at market practitioners and applies the latest stochastic volatility research findings to the analysis of stock prices. It includes commentary and analysis based on real-life situations.
Book Synopsis Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design by : Patrick A. Ray
Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Decision Support Systems for Risk-Based Management of Contaminated Sites by : Antonio Marcomini
Download or read book Decision Support Systems for Risk-Based Management of Contaminated Sites written by Antonio Marcomini and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-16 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision Support Systems for Risk-Based Management of Contaminated Sites addresses decision making in environmental risk management for contaminated sites, focusing on the potential role of decision support systems in informing the management of chemical pollutants and their effects. Considering the environmental relevance and the financial impacts of contaminated sites all over the post-industrialized countries and the complexity of decision making in environmental risk management, decision support systems can be used by decision makers in order to have a more structured analysis of a problem at hand and define possible options of intervention to solve the problem. Accordingly, the book provides an analysis of the main steps and tools for the development of decision support systems, namely: environmental risk assessment, decision analysis, spatial analysis and geographic information system, indicators and endpoints. Sections are dedicated to the review of decision support systems for contaminated land management and for inland and coastal waters management. Both include discussions of management problem formulation and of the application of specific decision support systems. This book is a valuable support for environmental risk managers and for decision makers involved in a sustainable management of contaminated sites, including contaminated lands, river basins and coastal lagoons. Furthermore, it is a basic tool for the environmental scientists who gather data and perform assessments to support decisions, developers of decision support systems, students of environmental science and members of the public who wish to understand the assessment science that supports remedial decisions.
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Government Operations. Environment, Energy, and Natural Resources Subcommittee Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :260 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (121 download)
Book Synopsis Risk Based Decisionmaking at the Environmental Protection Agency by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Government Operations. Environment, Energy, and Natural Resources Subcommittee
Download or read book Risk Based Decisionmaking at the Environmental Protection Agency written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Government Operations. Environment, Energy, and Natural Resources Subcommittee and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Distributed to some depository libraries in microfiche.
Book Synopsis Uncertain Judgements by : Anthony O'Hagan
Download or read book Uncertain Judgements written by Anthony O'Hagan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-30 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.
Download or read book Robustness written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Book Synopsis Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance by : El Bachir Boukherouaa
Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
