Overconfident

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Overconfidence and War

Author : Dominic D. P. Johnson
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674039165
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Overconfidence and War by : Dominic D. P. Johnson

Download or read book Overconfidence and War written by Dominic D. P. Johnson and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-01 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly.

Perfectly Confident

Author : Don A. Moore
Publisher : HarperCollins
ISBN 13 : 0062887777
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (628 download)

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Book Synopsis Perfectly Confident by : Don A. Moore

Download or read book Perfectly Confident written by Don A. Moore and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2020-05-26 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.

Managerial Overconfidence: Different Thinking through Different Education

Author : Maximilian Margolin
Publisher : Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
ISBN 13 : 3954896281
Total Pages : 82 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (548 download)

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Book Synopsis Managerial Overconfidence: Different Thinking through Different Education by : Maximilian Margolin

Download or read book Managerial Overconfidence: Different Thinking through Different Education written by Maximilian Margolin and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2014-02-01 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In literature, overconfidence has been blamed for economic bubbles and crises as well as for international conflicts and wars. While education has already been shown to impact one’s level of overconfidence previous research focused on the length and profoundness of education. This study, in contrast, examines the connection between overconfidence and the field in which a person has been educated. The issues covered are therefore how education and mind set are related, why a differentiation between “quantitative” and “qualitative” education makes sense in this context, and how different mind-sets influence an individual’s proneness to overconfidence. Drawing on the dual process concept of reasoning from psychology it is argued that the focus of one’s education may have an influence on individual levels of overconfidence through distinct ways of reasoning that are acquired and practiced during higher education. As support for this theory, data on the overconfidence of CEOs of the largest German companies is used and experiments for future research on this topic are suggested.

How Confidence Works

Author : Ian Robertson
Publisher : Random House
ISBN 13 : 1473579759
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (735 download)

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Book Synopsis How Confidence Works by : Ian Robertson

Download or read book How Confidence Works written by Ian Robertson and published by Random House. This book was released on 2021-06-03 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Brilliant ... it will change how you think about confidence.' Johann Hari 'Important for everyone but crucial for women.' Mary Robinson 'Interesting and important.' Steven Pinker __________ Why do boys instinctively bullshit more than girls? How do economic recessions shape a generation's confidence? Can we have too much confidence and, if so, what are the consequences? Imagine we could discover something that could make us richer, healthier, longer-living, smarter, kinder, happier, more motivated and more innovative. Ridiculous, you might say... What is this elixir? Confidence. If you have it, it can empower you to reach heights you never thought possible. But if you don't, it can have a devastating effect on your future. Confidence lies at the core of what makes things happen. Exploring the science and neuroscience behind confidence that has emerged over the last decade, clinical psychologist and neuroscientist Professor Ian Robertson tells us how confidence plays out in our minds, our brains and indeed our bodies. He explains where it comes from and how it spreads - with extraordinary economic and political consequences. And why it's not necessarily something you are born with, but something that can be learned.

Getting Service Right

Author : Jeff Toister
Publisher : Toister Performance Solutions
ISBN 13 : 9780578433363
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (333 download)

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Book Synopsis Getting Service Right by : Jeff Toister

Download or read book Getting Service Right written by Jeff Toister and published by Toister Performance Solutions. This book was released on 2019-03-15 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are you endlessly trying to improve your employees' customer service skills, but getting so-so results? There may be a culprit that you've never considered.Rather than offering another set of customer service tips, Getting Service Right takes a novel approach by rooting out the real reasons employees don't consistently deliver the service they should. The results can be both surprising and illuminating, such as: Company cultures that unwittingly discourage excellent customer service.Employees torn between following policy or serving the customer.Cost reduction efforts that actually increase the cost of service.Poor products and services that make it impossible to satisfy customers.Bad habits that make it difficult to listen to customers' needs.Getting Service Right is filled with examples from well-known organizations, real stories from frontline employees, and the latest scientific research. These powerful, sometimes counterintuitive insights can be applied at the organizational, departmental, or individual level to help the entire team deliver outstanding customer service.Note: the first edition of this book was published under the title, Service Failure: The Real Reasons Employees Struggle with Customer Service and What You Can Do About I

Introduction to Mixed Modelling

Author : N. W. Galwey
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 047003596X
Total Pages : 379 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Mixed Modelling by : N. W. Galwey

Download or read book Introduction to Mixed Modelling written by N. W. Galwey and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-04-04 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mixed modelling is one of the most promising and exciting areas ofstatistical analysis, enabling more powerful interpretation of datathrough the recognition of random effects. However, many perceivemixed modelling as an intimidating and specialized technique. Thisbook introduces mixed modelling analysis in a simple andstraightforward way, allowing the reader to apply the techniqueconfidently in a wide range of situations. Introduction to Mixed Modelling shows that mixedmodelling is a natural extension of the more familiar statisticalmethods of regression analysis and analysis of variance. In doingso, it provides the ideal introduction to this importantstatistical technique for those engaged in the statistical analysisof data. This essential book: Demonstrates the power of mixed modelling in a wide range ofdisciplines, including industrial research, social sciences,genetics, clinical research, ecology and agriculturalresearch. Illustrates how the capabilities of regression analysis can becombined with those of ANOVA by the specification of a mixedmodel. Introduces the criterion of Restricted Maximum Likelihood(REML) for the fitting of a mixed model to data. Presents the application of mixed model analysis to a widerange of situations and explains how to obtain and interpret BestLinear Unbiased Predictors (BLUPs). Features a supplementary website containing solutions toexercises, further examples, and links to the computer softwaresystems GenStat and R. This book provides a comprehensive introduction to mixedmodelling, ideal for final year undergraduate students,postgraduate students and professional researchers alike. Readerswill come from a wide range of scientific disciplines includingstatistics, biology, bioinformatics, medicine, agriculture,engineering, economics, and social sciences.

Power Cues

Author : Nick Morgan
Publisher : Harvard Business Review Press
ISBN 13 : 1422193608
Total Pages : 274 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)

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Book Synopsis Power Cues by : Nick Morgan

Download or read book Power Cues written by Nick Morgan and published by Harvard Business Review Press. This book was released on 2014-04-22 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Take control of your communications—before someone else does What if someone told you that your behavior was controlled by a powerful, invisible force? Most of us would be skeptical of such a claim—but it’s largely true. Our brains are constantly transmitting and receiving signals of which we are unaware. Studies show that these constant inputs drive the great majority of our decisions about what to do next—and we become conscious of the decisions only after we start acting on them. Many may find that disturbing. But the implications for leadership are profound. In this provocative yet practical book, renowned speaking coach and communication expert Nick Morgan highlights recent research that shows how humans are programmed to respond to the nonverbal cues of others—subtle gestures, sounds, and signals—that elicit emotion. He then provides a clear, useful framework of seven “power cues” that will be essential for any leader in business, the public sector, or almost any context. You’ll learn crucial skills, from measuring nonverbal signs of confidence, to the art and practice of gestures and vocal tones, to figuring out what your gut is really telling you. This concise and engaging guide will help leaders and aspiring leaders of all stripes to connect powerfully, communicate more effectively, and command influence.

Self-Knowledge for Humans

Author : Quassim Cassam
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 019103973X
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Self-Knowledge for Humans by : Quassim Cassam

Download or read book Self-Knowledge for Humans written by Quassim Cassam and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2014-11-27 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human beings are not model epistemic citizens. Our reasoning can be careless and uncritical, and our beliefs, desires, and other attitudes aren't always as they ought rationally to be. Our beliefs can be eccentric, our desires irrational and our hopes hopelessly unrealistic. Our attitudes are influenced by a wide range of non-epistemic or non-rational factors, including our character, our emotions, and powerful unconscious biases. Yet we are rarely conscious of such influences. Self-ignorance is not something to which human beings are immune. In this book Quassim Cassam develops an account of self-knowledge which tries to do justice to these and other respects in which humans aren't model epistemic citizens. He rejects rationalist and other mainstream philosophical accounts of self-knowledge on the grounds that, in more than one sense, they aren't accounts of self-knowledge for humans. Instead he defends the view that inferences from behavioural and psychological evidence are a basic source of human self-knowledge. On this account, self-knowledge is a genuine cognitive achievement and self-ignorance is almost always on the cards. As well as explaining knowledge of our own states of mind, Cassam also accounts for what he calls 'substantial' self-knowledge, including knowledge of our values, emotions, and character. He criticizes philosophical accounts of self-knowledge for neglecting substantial self-knowledge, and concludes with a discussion of the value of self-knowledge. This book tries to do for philosophy what behavioural economics tries to do for economics. Just as behavioural economics is the economics of homo sapiens, as distinct from the economics of an ideally rational and self homo economics, so Cassam argues that philosophy should focus on the human predicament rather than on the reasoning and self-knowledge of an idealized homo philosophicus.

Overconfidence in SMEs

Author : Anna Invernizzi
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319669206
Total Pages : 94 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Overconfidence in SMEs by : Anna Invernizzi

Download or read book Overconfidence in SMEs written by Anna Invernizzi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-19 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a review of the role of overconfidence in small firms and explores how biased judgment and decision-making can affect business performance. Whilst the overconfidence construct has been studied in detail, there are no systematic reviews of its role in SMEs as of yet. Examining the decisions made by entrepreneurs, this study offers clear solutions on how to improve business accuracy, reduce disadvantageous investments and prevent bankruptcy. Providing an empirical analysis of overconfidence in the sport industry, this new book will not only be of interest to academics of entrepreneurship and small enterprises, but also to sport managers.

Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders?

Author : Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1633696332
Total Pages : 205 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (336 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders? by : Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic

Download or read book Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders? written by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2019-02-19 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Look around your office. Turn on the TV. Incompetent leadership is everywhere, and there's no denying that most of these leaders are men. In this timely and provocative book, Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic asks two powerful questions: Why is it so easy for incompetent men to become leaders? And why is it so hard for competent people--especially competent women--to advance? Marshaling decades of rigorous research, Chamorro-Premuzic points out that although men make up a majority of leaders, they underperform when compared with female leaders. In fact, most organizations equate leadership potential with a handful of destructive personality traits, like overconfidence and narcissism. In other words, these traits may help someone get selected for a leadership role, but they backfire once the person has the job. When competent women--and men who don't fit the stereotype--are unfairly overlooked, we all suffer the consequences. The result is a deeply flawed system that rewards arrogance rather than humility, and loudness rather than wisdom. There is a better way. With clarity and verve, Chamorro-Premuzic shows us what it really takes to lead and how new systems and processes can help us put the right people in charge.

Behavioral Finance

Author : H. Kent Baker
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470769688
Total Pages : 1184 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Finance by : H. Kent Baker

Download or read book Behavioral Finance written by H. Kent Baker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 1184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A definitive guide to the growing field of behavioral finance This reliable resource provides a comprehensive view of behavioral finance and its psychological foundations, as well as its applications to finance. Comprising contributed chapters written by distinguished authors from some of the most influential firms and universities in the world, Behavioral Finance provides a synthesis of the most essential elements of this discipline, including psychological concepts and behavioral biases, the behavioral aspects of asset pricing, asset allocation, and market prices, as well as investor behavior, corporate managerial behavior, and social influences. Uses a structured approach to put behavioral finance in perspective Relies on recent research findings to provide guidance through the maze of theories and concepts Discusses the impact of sub-optimal financial decisions on the efficiency of capital markets, personal wealth, and the performance of corporations Behavioral finance has quickly become part of mainstream finance. If you need to gain a better understanding of this topic, look no further than this book.

The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis

Author : Sanjit Dhami
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192595156
Total Pages : 354 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)

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Book Synopsis The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis by : Sanjit Dhami

Download or read book The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis written by Sanjit Dhami and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-12-19 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fifth volume of The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis covers behavioral models of learning. It is an essential guide for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students seeking a concise and focused text on this important subject, and examines heuristics and biases in judgment and decision making, mental accounting, and behavioral finance and bounded rationality. This updated extract from Dhami's leading textbook allows the reader to pursue subsections of this vast and rapidly growing field and to tailor their reading to their specific interests in behavioral economics.

Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making

Author : Imran Demir
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319526057
Total Pages : 148 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making by : Imran Demir

Download or read book Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making written by Imran Demir and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-24 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.

Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 1

Author :
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444633898
Total Pages : 749 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 1 by :

Download or read book Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 1 written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 749 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Behavioral Economics: Foundations and Applications presents the concepts and tools of behavioral economics. Its authors are all economists who share a belief that the objective of behavioral economics is to enrich, rather than to destroy or replace, standard economics. They provide authoritative perspectives on the value to economic inquiry of insights gained from psychology. Specific chapters in this first volume cover reference-dependent preferences, asset markets, household finance, corporate finance, public economics, industrial organization, and structural behavioural economics. This Handbook provides authoritative summaries by experts in respective subfields regarding where behavioral economics has been; what it has so far accomplished; and its promise for the future. This taking-stock is just what Behavioral Economics needs at this stage of its so-far successful career. - Helps academic and non-academic economists understand recent, rapid changes in theoretical and empirical advances within behavioral economics - Designed for economists already convinced of the benefits of behavioral economics and mainstream economists who feel threatened by new developments in behavioral economics - Written for those who wish to become quickly acquainted with behavioral economics

Understanding the Investor

Author : Antonietta Bonello
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1789737052
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (897 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding the Investor by : Antonietta Bonello

Download or read book Understanding the Investor written by Antonietta Bonello and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2019-06-19 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In finance, understanding investors and their motivations is key for any business and policy-maker. Understanding the Investor: A Maltese Study of Risk and Behavior in Financial Investment Decisions offers a nuanced view of the Maltese investor and the Malta Stock Exchange, and its implications on the wider financial world.

Asset Management and International Capital Markets

Author : Wolfgang Bessler
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317979796
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (179 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Management and International Capital Markets by : Wolfgang Bessler

Download or read book Asset Management and International Capital Markets written by Wolfgang Bessler and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-08-21 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This innovative volume comprises a selection of original research articles offering a broad perspective on various dimensions of asset management in an international capital market environment. The topics covered include risk management and asset pricing models for portfolio management, performance evaluation and performance measurement of equity mutual funds as well as the wide range of bond portfolio management issues. Asset Management and International Capital Markets offers interesting new insights into state-of-the-art asset pricing and asset management research with a focus on international issues. Each chapter makes a valuable contribution to current research and literature, and will be of significant importance to the practice of asset management. This book is a compilation of articles originally published in The European Journal of Finance.

Advances in Computational Social Science

Author : Shu-Heng Chen
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 4431548475
Total Pages : 365 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Computational Social Science by : Shu-Heng Chen

Download or read book Advances in Computational Social Science written by Shu-Heng Chen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-22 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is a post-conference publication of the 4th World Congress on Social Simulation (WCSS), with contents selected from among the 80 papers originally presented at the conference. WCSS is a biennial event, jointly organized by three scientific communities in computational social science, namely, the Pacific-Asian Association for Agent-Based Approach in Social Systems Sciences (PAAA), the European Social Simulation Association (ESSA), and the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas (CSSSA). It is, therefore, currently the most prominent conference in the area of agent-based social simulation. The papers selected for this volume give a holistic view of the current development of social simulation, indicating the directions for future research and creating an important archival document and milestone in the history of computational social science. Specifically, the papers included here cover substantial progress in artificial financial markets, macroeconomic forecasting, supply chain management, bank networks, social networks, urban planning, social norms and group formation, cross-cultural studies, political party competition, voting behavior, computational demography, computational anthropology, evolution of languages, public health and epidemics, AIDS, security and terrorism, methodological and epistemological issues, empirical-based agent-based modeling, modeling of experimental social science, gaming simulation, cognitive agents, and participatory simulation. Furthermore, pioneering studies in some new research areas, such as the theoretical foundations of social simulation and categorical social science, also are included in the volume.