Overconfidence And Information

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Overconfidence and War

Author : Dominic D. P. Johnson
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674039165
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Overconfidence and War by : Dominic D. P. Johnson

Download or read book Overconfidence and War written by Dominic D. P. Johnson and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-01 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly.

Self-Knowledge for Humans

Author : Quassim Cassam
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 019103973X
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Self-Knowledge for Humans by : Quassim Cassam

Download or read book Self-Knowledge for Humans written by Quassim Cassam and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2014-11-27 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human beings are not model epistemic citizens. Our reasoning can be careless and uncritical, and our beliefs, desires, and other attitudes aren't always as they ought rationally to be. Our beliefs can be eccentric, our desires irrational and our hopes hopelessly unrealistic. Our attitudes are influenced by a wide range of non-epistemic or non-rational factors, including our character, our emotions, and powerful unconscious biases. Yet we are rarely conscious of such influences. Self-ignorance is not something to which human beings are immune. In this book Quassim Cassam develops an account of self-knowledge which tries to do justice to these and other respects in which humans aren't model epistemic citizens. He rejects rationalist and other mainstream philosophical accounts of self-knowledge on the grounds that, in more than one sense, they aren't accounts of self-knowledge for humans. Instead he defends the view that inferences from behavioural and psychological evidence are a basic source of human self-knowledge. On this account, self-knowledge is a genuine cognitive achievement and self-ignorance is almost always on the cards. As well as explaining knowledge of our own states of mind, Cassam also accounts for what he calls 'substantial' self-knowledge, including knowledge of our values, emotions, and character. He criticizes philosophical accounts of self-knowledge for neglecting substantial self-knowledge, and concludes with a discussion of the value of self-knowledge. This book tries to do for philosophy what behavioural economics tries to do for economics. Just as behavioural economics is the economics of homo sapiens, as distinct from the economics of an ideally rational and self homo economics, so Cassam argues that philosophy should focus on the human predicament rather than on the reasoning and self-knowledge of an idealized homo philosophicus.

Managerial Overconfidence: Different Thinking through Different Education

Author : Maximilian Margolin
Publisher : Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
ISBN 13 : 3954896281
Total Pages : 82 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (548 download)

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Book Synopsis Managerial Overconfidence: Different Thinking through Different Education by : Maximilian Margolin

Download or read book Managerial Overconfidence: Different Thinking through Different Education written by Maximilian Margolin and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2014-02-01 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In literature, overconfidence has been blamed for economic bubbles and crises as well as for international conflicts and wars. While education has already been shown to impact one’s level of overconfidence previous research focused on the length and profoundness of education. This study, in contrast, examines the connection between overconfidence and the field in which a person has been educated. The issues covered are therefore how education and mind set are related, why a differentiation between “quantitative” and “qualitative” education makes sense in this context, and how different mind-sets influence an individual’s proneness to overconfidence. Drawing on the dual process concept of reasoning from psychology it is argued that the focus of one’s education may have an influence on individual levels of overconfidence through distinct ways of reasoning that are acquired and practiced during higher education. As support for this theory, data on the overconfidence of CEOs of the largest German companies is used and experiments for future research on this topic are suggested.

Perfectly Confident

Author : Don A. Moore
Publisher : HarperCollins
ISBN 13 : 0062887777
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (628 download)

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Book Synopsis Perfectly Confident by : Don A. Moore

Download or read book Perfectly Confident written by Don A. Moore and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2020-05-26 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.

Behavioral Finance

Author : H. Kent Baker
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470769688
Total Pages : 1184 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (77 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Finance by : H. Kent Baker

Download or read book Behavioral Finance written by H. Kent Baker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 1184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A definitive guide to the growing field of behavioral finance This reliable resource provides a comprehensive view of behavioral finance and its psychological foundations, as well as its applications to finance. Comprising contributed chapters written by distinguished authors from some of the most influential firms and universities in the world, Behavioral Finance provides a synthesis of the most essential elements of this discipline, including psychological concepts and behavioral biases, the behavioral aspects of asset pricing, asset allocation, and market prices, as well as investor behavior, corporate managerial behavior, and social influences. Uses a structured approach to put behavioral finance in perspective Relies on recent research findings to provide guidance through the maze of theories and concepts Discusses the impact of sub-optimal financial decisions on the efficiency of capital markets, personal wealth, and the performance of corporations Behavioral finance has quickly become part of mainstream finance. If you need to gain a better understanding of this topic, look no further than this book.

Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making

Author : Imran Demir
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319526057
Total Pages : 148 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making by : Imran Demir

Download or read book Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making written by Imran Demir and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-24 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.

Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition

Author : Klaus Fiedler
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521831598
Total Pages : 504 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (315 download)

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Book Synopsis Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition by : Klaus Fiedler

Download or read book Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition written by Klaus Fiedler and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes that environmental information samples are biased and cognitive processes are not.

Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521284141
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (841 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment Under Uncertainty by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Thought and Knowledge

Author : Diane F. Halpern
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000406288
Total Pages : 498 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Thought and Knowledge by : Diane F. Halpern

Download or read book Thought and Knowledge written by Diane F. Halpern and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2022-10-25 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thought and Knowledge applies theory and research from the learning sciences to teach students the critical thinking skills that they need to succeed in today’s world. The text identifies, defines, discusses, and deconstructs contemporary challenges to critical thinking, from fake news, alternative facts, and deep fakes, to misinformation, disinformation, post-truth, and more. It guides students through the explosion of content on the internet and social media and enables them to become careful and critical evaluators as well as consumers. The text is grounded in psychological science, especially the cognitive sciences, and brought to life through humorous and engaging language and numerous practical and real-world examples and anecdotes. This edition has been streamlined with thoughtful consideration over what content to keep, what to cut, and how much new and current research to add. Critical thinking skills are presented in every chapter, empowering students to learn more efficiently, research more productively, and present logical, critical, and informed arguments. The skills are reviewed at the end of the chapter, and a complete list of skills with definitions and examples are included in the appendix. The text is supported by a companion website that features a robust set of instructor and student resources: www.routledge.com/cw/halpern. Thought and Knowledge can be used as a core text in critical thinking courses offered in departments of psychology, philosophy, English, or across the humanities and social sciences, or as a supplement in any course where critical thinking is emphasized.

Attention and Performance Viii

Author : R. S. Nickerson
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1317770129
Total Pages : 849 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (177 download)

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Book Synopsis Attention and Performance Viii by : R. S. Nickerson

Download or read book Attention and Performance Viii written by R. S. Nickerson and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2014-01-14 with total page 849 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1980. This is a volume of the proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Attention and Performance held in Princeton, New Jersey, USA, from August 20th to 25th 1978.

Information and Knowledge Systems. Digital Technologies, Artificial Intelligence and Decision Making

Author : Inès Saad
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030859770
Total Pages : 190 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis Information and Knowledge Systems. Digital Technologies, Artificial Intelligence and Decision Making by : Inès Saad

Download or read book Information and Knowledge Systems. Digital Technologies, Artificial Intelligence and Decision Making written by Inès Saad and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-08-27 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Information and Knowledge Systems, ICIKS 2021, which was held online during June 22-23, 2021. The International Conference on Information and Knowledge Systems (ICIKS 2021) gathered both researchers and practitioners in the fields of Information Systems, Artificial Intelligence, Knowledge Management and Decision Support. ICIKS seeks to promote discussions on various organizational, technological, and socio-cultural aspects of research in the design and use of information and knowledge systems in organizations. The 10 full and 2 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 32 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: knowledge systems and decision making; machine learning, recommender systems, and knowledge systems; and security, artificial intelligence, and information systems.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Conflict Resolution

Author : Gary E. Bolton
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199730857
Total Pages : 419 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (997 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Economic Conflict Resolution by : Gary E. Bolton

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Conflict Resolution written by Gary E. Bolton and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-10-11 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Individuals, groups, and societies all experience and resolve conflict. In this handbook, scholars from multiple disciplines offer perspectives on the current state and future challenges in negotiation and conflict resolution. This confluence of research perspectives will identify further synergies and advances in our understanding of conflict resolution.

The Investment Advisor Body of Knowledge + Test Bank

Author : IMCA
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118912349
Total Pages : 1155 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (189 download)

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Book Synopsis The Investment Advisor Body of Knowledge + Test Bank by : IMCA

Download or read book The Investment Advisor Body of Knowledge + Test Bank written by IMCA and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-03-05 with total page 1155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The complete body of knowledge for CIMA candidates and professionals The 2015 Certified Investment Management Analyst Body of Knowledge + Test Bank will help any financial advisor prepare for and pass the CIMA exam, and includes key information and preparation for those preparing to take the test. CIMA professionals integrate a complex body of investment knowledge, ethically contributing to prudent investment decisions by providing objective advice and guidance to individual and institutional investors. The CIMA certification program is the only credential designed specifically for financial professionals who want to attain a level of competency as an advanced investment consultant. Having the CIMA designation has led to more satisfied careers, better compensation, and management of more assets for higher-net-worth clients than other advisors. The book is laid out based on the six domains covered on the exam: I. Governance II. Fundamentals (statistics, finance, economics) III. Portfolio Performance and Risk Measurements IV. Traditional and Alternative Investments V. Portfolio Theory and Behavioral Finance VI. Investment Consulting Process

The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market

Author : Thomas Oberlechner
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470012013
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market by : Thomas Oberlechner

Download or read book The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market written by Thomas Oberlechner and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the foreign exchange market by focusing on the people who comprise it. Drawing on the expertise of the very professionals whose decisions help shape the market, Thomas Oberlechner describes the highly interdependent relationship between financial decision makers and news providers, showing that the assumption that the foreign exchange market is purely economic and rational has to be replaced by a more complex market psychology.

Capital Market Anomalies: Explained by human ́s irrationality

Author : Irini Varvouzou
Publisher : Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
ISBN 13 : 3954895307
Total Pages : 82 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (548 download)

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Book Synopsis Capital Market Anomalies: Explained by human ́s irrationality by : Irini Varvouzou

Download or read book Capital Market Anomalies: Explained by human ́s irrationality written by Irini Varvouzou and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2013-06-01 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do small caps achieve higher risk-adjusted yields than large caps? Why do stock prices increase or decrease upon an index entry respectively deletion? Why does January records higher yields than the remaining months of the year? These as well as other observed capital market anomalies or phenomena could be insufficiently explained by the classical capital market theory, which proceeds on the assumptions that all correspondent information are reflected in the stock prices, all negative effects are directly balanced on the market level and that efficiency of arbitrage principle exists as well as that all market participants act rationally (i.e. optimizing their benefits in the sense of the homo economicus). This motivated some economists and psychologists to include behavioural scientific findings in their research of the influences on the formation of prices on the capital market. In the 1980s the theory of Behavioural Finance was developed, which challenges the homo economicus. Researchers came to the conclusion that humans are not only acting rational, but that they are also influenced by emotions, knowledge and experiences. This new scientific behavioural oriented theory, which is today a separate branch of research, contradicts the classical capital market theory and supplies explanations for the observed phenomena on the capital market. The aim of this book is to demonstrate how human behaviour influences the development on the capital market and how Behavioural Finance serves as an explanation for the empirically observed capital market anomalies. This book begins with the introduction of the theoretical basis of Behavioural Finance and its emergence; tasks as well as aims will be explained in detail. Subsequently, human’s heuristics as well as anomalies and irrationalities in their decision making process will be demonstrated. In the third chapter, the capital market anomalies or phenomena as well as the irrational and behavioural reasons for their existence will be described. The fourth chapter covers empirical evidence for their existence as well as for the insufficient explanatory power of the classical capital market theory. Concluding a critical acclaim, target achievements and perspectives concerning Behavioural Finance will be given.

Corporate Performance and Managerial Ties in China

Author : Chris Rowley
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 100050591X
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Corporate Performance and Managerial Ties in China by : Chris Rowley

Download or read book Corporate Performance and Managerial Ties in China written by Chris Rowley and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-11-30 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In many countries, business practitioners, policy makers, pundits and laypeople want to know how strong China really is in business. In the preceding century, the overall tone of business comments on China was filled with fanfare and ovation. However, despite economic performance and seemingly inexorable growth, some global data in areas such as labour productivity and digital competitiveness, show a different and more nuanced picture. This collection provides a multi-level reality check on the Chinese economy, firm performance and managerial ties. Given that China must transform its economy and business that can pull global talent together to produce high-end technologies for radically innovative products and services, this book proposes two questions. First, can China restructure its economy from a low-cost growth model to a high value-added innovative model without incurring major structural inertia? Second, can Chinese firms outperform competitors in global high value markets without relying on state initiatives, central funding mechanisms and public R&D institutions? This book was originally published as a special issue of the journal, Asia Pacific Business Review.

CFA Program Curriculum 2020 Level I Volumes 1-6 Box Set

Author : CFA Institute
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119593530
Total Pages : 3508 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis CFA Program Curriculum 2020 Level I Volumes 1-6 Box Set by : CFA Institute

Download or read book CFA Program Curriculum 2020 Level I Volumes 1-6 Box Set written by CFA Institute and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-08-07 with total page 3508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All CFA® Program exams through November 2021 will reflect the 2020 curriculum. Purchase your copy and begin studying for Level I now! The CFA® Program Curriculum 2020 Level I Box Set provides candidates and other motivated investment professionals with the official curriculum tested on the Level I CFA exam. This box set includes all the content Chartered Financial Analyst® candidates are expected to know for the Level I exam, including concise instruction on the 10 core topics covered in the Candidate Body of Knowledge (CBOK). Utilizing engaging visuals, cases, and examples to illustrate key concepts, this box set helps candidates apply what they learn in real-world investment scenarios. The CFA® Program Curriculum 2020 Level I Box Set offers: A comprehensive Learning Ecosystem designed to take you through the entire curriculum or help you focus on areas where you need additional study time. Practice questions to assist with your recall of key terms, concepts, and formulas. Mock exams to help you become accustomed to the pace and pressure of the real-world exam. Perfect for anyone considering the CFA® designation or currently preparing for a 2021 exam window, the 2020 Level I Box Set is a must-have resource for building basic skills required to become a Chartered Financial Analyst®.