Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
On The Predictive Content Of Leading Indicators
Download On The Predictive Content Of Leading Indicators full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online On The Predictive Content Of Leading Indicators ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Book Synopsis On the Predictive Content of Leading Indicators by : Sotiris Tsolacos
Download or read book On the Predictive Content of Leading Indicators written by Sotiris Tsolacos and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper employs a probit model and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator series to detect the turning points in four key US commercial rents series. We find that both the approaches based on the leading indicator have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. The empirical support for the adequacy of these prediction methodologies, from both in-sample and real time forecasting assessments, makes them a valuable tool to real estate professionals forecasting the US real estate markets. We find that while the Markov switching model nominally appears to be more successful in predicting periods of negative growth, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect turning points several quarters ahead.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting by : James H. Stock
Download or read book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Book Synopsis Leading Economic Indicators by : Kajal Lahiri
Download or read book Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
Book Synopsis A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators by : James H. Stock
Download or read book A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators written by James H. Stock and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the forecasting performance of various leading economic indicators and composite indexes since 1988. in particular during the onset of the 1990 recession. The primary focus is on an experimental recession index (tile "XRI"). a composite index which provides probabilistic forecasts of whether the U.S. economy will be in a recession six months hence. After detailing its construction, the paper examines the out-of-sample performance of the XRI and a related forecast of overall economic growth. the experimental leading index (XLI). These indexes performed well from 1988 through the summer of 1990 - for example. in June 1990 the XLI model forecasted a .4% (annual rate) decline in the experimental coincident index from June through September. when in fact the decline was only slightly greater, .8%. However. the XLI failed to forecast the sharp declines of October and November 1990. After exploring several possible explanations. we conclude that one important source of the forecast error was the use of financial variables during a recession that was not associated with a particularly tight monetary policy. Financial indicators -- and the experimental index -- were not alone. however. in failing to forecast the 1990 recession, An examination of 45 economic indicators shows that almost all failed to forecast the 1990downturn. and the few that did provided unclear signals before the recessions of the 19705 and 1980s
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Victor Zarnowitz
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Book Synopsis Business Cycle Indicators by : Karl Heinrich Oppenländer
Download or read book Business Cycle Indicators written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.
Book Synopsis Does the Stock Market Fully Appreciate the Implications of Leading Indicators for Future Earnings? Evidence from Order Backlog by : Shivaram Rajgopal
Download or read book Does the Stock Market Fully Appreciate the Implications of Leading Indicators for Future Earnings? Evidence from Order Backlog written by Shivaram Rajgopal and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of recent studies assume market efficiency and hence interpret an association between stock returns and leading indicators as evidence of the contribution of such indicators to future earnings. We explicitly examine (i) whether one leading indicator - order backlog - has predictive ability for future earnings, and (ii) whether market participants correctly incorporate such predictive ability in determining share prices. We find that the stock market overweights the contribution of order backlog in predicting future earnings and a hedge strategy that takes positions on the cross-sectional distribution of backlog generates significant future abnormal returns. Additional analysis indicates that the market mispricing is not due to analysts' inability to incorporate order backlog into their earnings forecasts.
Book Synopsis Measure What Matters to Customers by : Ronald J. Baker
Download or read book Measure What Matters to Customers written by Ronald J. Baker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-01-29 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measure What Matters to Customers reveals how to capitalize on Key Predictive Indicators (KPIs), the innovative measures that define the success of your enterprise as your customers do. If you want to increase your company's profits by working smarter, this is the book for you.
Book Synopsis Transportation Indicators and Business Cycles by : Kajal Lahiri
Download or read book Transportation Indicators and Business Cycles written by Kajal Lahiri and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2010-09-06 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing the role that the transportation sector plays in business cycle propagation, this title presents an index of the different indicators for this sector to identify its state, and predict its future, using various statistical procedures.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Leading Indicators of Inflation in Sweden by : Mr.Ramana Ramaswamy
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Leading Indicators of Inflation in Sweden written by Mr.Ramana Ramaswamy and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-04-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper derives a set of leading indicators of inflation for Sweden. It also discusses methodological and policy issues pertaining to the estimation of these indicators. The main findings are: (1) narrow money is the most powerful leading inflation indicator; (2) broad money and inflation expectations have significant predictive information on inflation; (3) the output gap, interest rates, and the credit aggregate have some predictive information on inflation, and this information is confined to a shorter time horizon than either the monetary aggregates or inflation expectations; and (4) implied forward rates have only weak predictive information on inflation.
Download or read book 投资分析与组合管理 written by Frank K. Reilly and published by 中信出版社. This book was released on 2002 with total page 1284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 本书向您介绍了投资分析与组合管理。
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : G. Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-07-14 with total page 1071 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Section headings in this handbook include: 'Forecasting Methodology; 'Forecasting Models'; 'Forecasting with Different Data Structures'; and 'Applications of Forecasting Methods.'.
Download or read book Saleshood written by Elay Cohen and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2014-04-15 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A playbook that empowers sales managers to think like CEOs and act like entrepreneurs At Salesforce.com, Elay Cohen created and executed the sales productivity programs that accelerated the company’s growth to a $3 billion–plus enterprise. The innovation delivered over these years by Elay and his team resulted in unprecedented sales productivity excellence. Based on that experience, Elay embarked on a journey to help every company in the world grow like Salesforce.com. After working with many organizations and further reflecting on his time at Salesforce.com, it became apparent that one key player was best positioned to accelerate growth in organizations: the first-line sales manager. Empowering sales managers to own and execute their own sales programs, as entrepreneurs would, became the focus of this book and his technology company. First-line sales managers are the backbone of every sales organization. They make it happen. They’re where the rubber meets the road in pipeline generation, revenue growth, and customer success. These sales managers serve as the voice of salespeople to organizations, and as the organizational voice back to salespeople. In this accessible guide, Cohen shares how sales managers can build an inspired, engaged team, equipping them with the tools they need to drive up sales productivity and grow the business. He reveals, among many other lessons, how you can nurture a winning sales culture; build world-class training programs that encourage salespeople to learn from each other; and execute sales processes, playbooks, and deals in a way that gives your salespeople the winning edge.
Book Synopsis A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators by : Robert H. McGuckin
Download or read book A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators written by Robert H. McGuckin and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Effectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge. While there are other approaches to forecasting, the U.S. leading index has long been used to analyze and predict economic fluctuations. We describe and test a new procedure for making the index more timely. The new index significantly outperforms its less timely counterpart and offers substantial gains in real-time out-of-sample forecasts of changes in aggregate economic activity and industrial production. It provides timely and accurate ex-ante information for predicting, not only the business cycle turning points, but the monthly changes in the economy.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics by : Nigar Hashimzade
Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics written by Nigar Hashimzade and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 627 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter is largely self-contained, whilst the comprehensive introduction provides an overview of the key statistical concepts and methods. All of the chapters include the essential references for each topic and provide a sound guide for further reading. Topics covered include unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks, time aggregation, forecasting, the Kalman filter, generalised method of moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation, vector autoregressive, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and dynamic panel models. Presenting the most important models and techniques for empirical research, this Handbook will appeal to students, researchers and academics working in empirical macro and econometrics.
Book Synopsis Leading Indicators for the 1990s by : Geoffrey Hoyt Moore
Download or read book Leading Indicators for the 1990s written by Geoffrey Hoyt Moore and published by Irwin Professional Publishing. This book was released on 1990 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes sweeping changes to the Commerce Department's leading economic indicators.
Book Synopsis Current Issues in Economics and Finance by : Bandi Kamaiah
Download or read book Current Issues in Economics and Finance written by Bandi Kamaiah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses wide topics related to current issues in economic growth and development, international trade, macroeconomic and financial stability, inflation, monetary policy, banking, productivity, agriculture and food security. It is a collection of seventeen research papers selected based on their quality in terms of contemporary topic, newness in the methodology, and themes. All selected papers have followed an empirical approach to address research issues, and are segregated in five parts. Part one covers papers related to fiscal and price stability, monetary policy and economic growth. The second part contains works related to financial integration, capital market volatility and macroeconomic stability. Third part deals with issues related to international trade and economic growth. Part four covers topics related to productivity and firm performance. The final part discusses issues related to agriculture and food security. The book would be of interest to researchers, academicians as a ready reference on current issues in economics and finance.
