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Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting
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Book Synopsis Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by : Tommy Bengtsson
Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Book Synopsis Developments in Demographic Forecasting by : Stefano Mazzuco
Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Book Synopsis The Demographic Dividend by : David Bloom
Download or read book The Demographic Dividend written by David Bloom and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-02-13 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
Book Synopsis The Oldest Old by : Richard M. Suzman
Download or read book The Oldest Old written by Richard M. Suzman and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than 2.3 million Americans are now age 85 and older, and the population total in this age group is steadily expanding. This book brings together leading researchers to review current knowledge about the demography, health, epidemiology and social status of the oldest old. From discussions of the impact of Alzheimer's disease to an examination of changing social and medical policies, this book provides much needed information about this often neglected but growing group.The special problems attendant to information gathering among the oldest old, such as interviews and research, are also addressed. Special intercultural perspectives inform chapters on "The Black Oldest Old", and "Institutional Long-term Care from an International Perspective". This is essential reading for gerontologists, public health professionals, epidemiologists, and policy makers. The book's broad scope enlarges our understanding of the current needs of the oldest old, and indicates areas of public concern.
Book Synopsis Aging and the Macroeconomy by : National Research Council
Download or read book Aging and the Macroeconomy written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-10 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
Book Synopsis Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by : Tommy Bengtsson
Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.".
Book Synopsis Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by : Tommy Bengtsson
Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-16 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council
Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Book Synopsis Recent Advances in Reliability and Quality in Design by : Hoang Pham
Download or read book Recent Advances in Reliability and Quality in Design written by Hoang Pham and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-05-20 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the latest theories and methods of reliability and quality, with emphasis on reliability and quality in design and modelling. Each chapter is written by active researchers and professionals with international reputations, providing material which bridges the gap between theory and practice to trigger new practices and research challenges. The book therefore provides a state-of-the-art survey of reliability and quality in design and practices.
Book Synopsis Demography of Aging by : National Research Council
Download or read book Demography of Aging written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the United States and the rest of the world face the unprecedented challenge of aging populations, this volume draws together for the first time state-of-the-art work from the emerging field of the demography of aging. The nine chapters, written by experts from a variety of disciplines, highlight data sources and research approaches, results, and proposed strategies on a topic with major policy implications for labor forces, economic well-being, health care, and the need for social and family supports.
Book Synopsis Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by : Tommy Bengtsson
Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by . This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality. This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.
Book Synopsis International Differences in Mortality at Older Ages by : National Research Council
Download or read book International Differences in Mortality at Older Ages written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-02-27 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1950 men and women in the United States had a combined life expectancy of 68.9 years, the 12th highest life expectancy at birth in the world. Today, life expectancy is up to 79.2 years, yet the country is now 28th on the list, behind the United Kingdom, Korea, Canada, and France, among others. The United States does have higher rates of infant mortality and violent deaths than in other developed countries, but these factors do not fully account for the country's relatively poor ranking in life expectancy. International Differences in Mortality at Older Ages: Dimensions and Sources examines patterns in international differences in life expectancy above age 50 and assesses the evidence and arguments that have been advanced to explain the poor position of the United States relative to other countries. The papers in this deeply researched volume identify gaps in measurement, data, theory, and research design and pinpoint areas for future high-priority research in this area. In addition to examining the differences in mortality around the world, the papers in International Differences in Mortality at Older Ages look at health factors and life-style choices commonly believed to contribute to the observed international differences in life expectancy. They also identify strategic opportunities for health-related interventions. This book offers a wide variety of disciplinary and scholarly perspectives to the study of mortality, and it offers in-depth analyses that can serve health professionals, policy makers, statisticians, and researchers.
Book Synopsis Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology by : Hal Caswell
Download or read book Sensitivity Analysis: Matrix Methods in Demography and Ecology written by Hal Caswell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-02 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book shows how to use sensitivity analysis in demography. It presents new methods for individuals, cohorts, and populations, with applications to humans, other animals, and plants. The analyses are based on matrix formulations of age-classified, stage-classified, and multistate population models. Methods are presented for linear and nonlinear, deterministic and stochastic, and time-invariant and time-varying cases. Readers will discover results on the sensitivity of statistics of longevity, life disparity, occupancy times, the net reproductive rate, and statistics of Markov chain models in demography. They will also see applications of sensitivity analysis to population growth rates, stable population structures, reproductive value, equilibria under immigration and nonlinearity, and population cycles. Individual stochasticity is a theme throughout, with a focus that goes beyond expected values to include variances in demographic outcomes. The calculations are easily and accurately implemented in matrix-oriented programming languages such as Matlab or R. Sensitivity analysis will help readers create models to predict the effect of future changes, to evaluate policy effects, and to identify possible evolutionary responses to the environment. Complete with many examples of the application, the book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in human demography and population biology. The material will also appeal to those in mathematical biology and applied mathematics.
Book Synopsis Between Zeus and the Salmon by : Caleb E. Finch
Download or read book Between Zeus and the Salmon written by Caleb E. Finch and published by . This book was released on 1997-10-29 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographers and public health specialists have been surprised by the rapid increases in life expectancy, especially at the oldest ages, that have occurred since the early 1960s. Some scientists are calling into question the idea of a fixed upper limit for the human life span. There is new evidence about the genetic bases for both humans and other species. There are also new theories and models of the role of mutations accumulating over the life span and the possible evolutionary advantages of survival after the reproductive years. This volume deals with such diverse topics as the role of the elderly in other species and among human societies past and present, the contribution of evolutionary theory to our understanding of human longevity and intergenerational transfers, mathematical models for survival, and the potential for collecting genetic material in household surveys. It will be particularly valuable for promoting communication between the social and life sciences.
Download or read book Supercentenarians written by Heiner Maier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-05-17 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does human mortality after age 110 continue to rise, level off, or start to decline? This book describes a concerted, international research effort undertaken with the goal of establishing a database that allows the best possible description of the mortality trajectory beyond the age of 110. The International Database on Longevity (IDL) is the result of this ongoing effort. The IDL contains exhaustive information on validated cases of supercentenarians (people 110 years and older) and allows unbiased estimates of mortality after age 110. The main finding is remarkable: human mortality after age 110 is flat at a probability of death of 50% per year. The sixteen chapters of this book discuss age validation of exceptional longevity, data on supercentenarians in a series of countries, structure and contents of the IDL, and statistical analysis of human mortality after age 110. Several chapters include short accounts of specific supercentenarians that add life to demographic research.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries by : E. Tabeau
Download or read book Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries written by E. Tabeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-02-28 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Book Synopsis Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries by : National Research Council
Download or read book Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-06-27 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last 25 years, life expectancy at age 50 in the United States has been rising, but at a slower pace than in many other high-income countries, such as Japan and Australia. This difference is particularly notable given that the United States spends more on health care than any other nation. Concerned about this divergence, the National Institute on Aging asked the National Research Council to examine evidence on its possible causes. According to Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries, the nation's history of heavy smoking is a major reason why lifespans in the United States fall short of those in many other high-income nations. Evidence suggests that current obesity levels play a substantial part as well. The book reports that lack of universal access to health care in the U.S. also has increased mortality and reduced life expectancy, though this is a less significant factor for those over age 65 because of Medicare access. For the main causes of death at older ages-cancer and cardiovascular disease-available indicators do not suggest that the U.S. health care system is failing to prevent deaths that would be averted elsewhere. In fact, cancer detection and survival appear to be better in the U.S. than in most other high-income nations, and survival rates following a heart attack also are favorable. Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries identifies many gaps in research. For instance, while lung cancer deaths are a reliable marker of the damage from smoking, no clear-cut marker exists for obesity, physical inactivity, social integration, or other risks considered in this book. Moreover, evaluation of these risk factors is based on observational studies, which-unlike randomized controlled trials-are subject to many biases.
