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Oil Prices External Income And Growth
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Book Synopsis Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by : Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Book Synopsis Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth by : Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes
Download or read book Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth written by Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income?the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers?from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long-run relationships: an output equation as predicted by theory and an equation linking foreign and domestic inflation rates. It is shown that real output in the long run is shaped by: (i) oil prices through their impact on external income and in turn on capital accumulation, and (ii) technological transfers through foreign output. The empirical analysis of the paper confirms the hypothesis that a large share of Jordan's output volatility can be associated with fluctuations in net income received from abroad. External factors, however, cannot be relied upon to provide similar growth stimuli in the future, and therefore it will be important to diversify the sources of growth in order to achieve a high and sustained level of income.
Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Book Synopsis Oil Prices and the Global Economy by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries—Design and Implementation by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries—Design and Implementation written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-16 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Better designed and implemented fiscal regimes for oil, gas, and mining can make a substantial contribution to the revenue needs of many developing countries while ensuring an attractive return for investors, according to a new policy paper from the International Monetary Fund. Revenues from extractive industries (EIs) have major macroeconomic implications. The EIs account for over half of government revenues in many petroleum-rich countries, and for over 20 percent in mining countries. About one-third of IMF member countries find (or could find) resource revenues “macro-critical” – especially with large numbers of recent new discoveries and planned oil, gas, and mining developments. IMF policy advice and technical assistance in the field has massively expanded in recent years – driven by demand from member countries and supported by increased donor finance. The paper sets out the analytical framework underpinning, and key elements of, the country-specific advice given. Also available in Arabic: ????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????????: ??????? ???????? Also available in French: Régimes fiscaux des industries extractives: conception et application Also available in Spanish: Regímenes fiscales de las industrias extractivas: Diseño y aplicación
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 by : World Bank
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Book Synopsis Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa by : Mr.Hamid R Davoodi
Download or read book Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mr.Hamid R Davoodi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-05 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
Book Synopsis Oil Shocks and External Balances by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Oil Shocks and External Balances written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-05-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global perspective. In addition to the U.S., the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of country groups including oil exporters and middle-income oil-importing economies. We find that the effect of oil shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the nonoil trade balance, and differs systematically between the U.S. and other oil importing countries. Using the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti NFA data set, we document the presence of large and systematic (if not always statistically significant) valuation effects in response to oil shocks, not only for the U.S., but also for other oil-importing economies and for oil exporters. Our estimates suggest that increased international financial integration will tend to cushion the effect of oil shocks on NFA positions for major oil exporters and the U.S., but may amplify it for other oil importers.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498398588 Total Pages :230 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.
Download or read book International Energy Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475507038 Total Pages :299 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-17 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects 2010 by : World Bank
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects 2010 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-02-12 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “The crisis has deeply impacted virtually every economy in the world, and although growth has returned, much progress in the fight against poverty has been lost. More difficult international conditions in the years to come will mean that developing countries will have to place even more emphasis on improving domestic economic conditions to achieve the kind of growth that can durably eradicate poverty.� —Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President The World Bank 'Global Economic Prospects 2010: Crisis, Finance, and Growth' explores both the short- and medium-term impacts of the financial crisis on developing countries. Although global growth has resumed, the recovery is fragile, and unless business and consumer demand strengthen, the world economy could slow down again. Even if, as appears likely, a double-dip recession is avoided, the recovery is expected to be slow. High unemployment and widespread restructuring will continue to characterize the global economy for the next several years. Already, the crisis has provoked large-scale human suffering. Some 64 million more people around the world are expected to be living on less than a $1.25 per day by the end of 2010, and between 30,000 and 50,000 more infants may have died of malnutrition in 2009 in Sub-Saharan Africa, than would have been the case if the crisis had not occurred. Over the medium term, economic growth is expected to recover. But increased risk aversion, a necessary and desirable tightening of financial regulations in high-income countries, and measures to reduce the exposure of developing economies to external shocks are likely to make finance scarcer and more costly than it was during the boom period. As a result, just as the ample liquidity of the early 2000s prompted an investment boom and an acceleration in developing-country potential output, higher costs will likely yield a slowing in developing-country potential growth rates of between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points, and as much as an 8 percent decline in potential output over the medium term. In the longer term, however, developing countries can more than offset the implications of more expensive international finance by reducing the cost of capital channeled through their domestic financial markets. For more information, please visit www.worldbank.org/gep2010. To access Prospects for the Global Economy, an online companion publication, please visit www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomics for Professionals by : Leslie Lipschitz
Download or read book Macroeconomics for Professionals written by Leslie Lipschitz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-23 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.
Book Synopsis Winning the Oil Lottery by : Mr.Tiago Cavalcanti
Download or read book Winning the Oil Lottery written by Mr.Tiago Cavalcanti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-14 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides evidence of the causal impact of oil discoveries on development. Novel data on the drilling of 20,000 oil wells in Brazil allows us to exploit a quasi-experiment: Municipalities where oil was discovered constitute the treatment group, while municipalities with drilling but no discovery are the control group. The results show that oil discoveries significantly increase per capita GDP and urbanization. We find positive spillovers to non-oil sectors, specifically, an increase in services GDP which stems from higher output per worker. The results are consistent with greater local demand for non-tradable services driven by highly paid oil workers.
Download or read book Oil Windfalls written by Alan H. Gelb and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book assesses the full impact of oil windfalls on six developing producer countries - Algeria, Ecuador, Indonesia, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. This is the first time that the issue has been systematically analysed and related to economics policies and underlying macroeconomic characteristics. The book adopts a broad approach, blending institutional and political aspects with quantitative analysis which includes the results of sophisticated model simulations. It presents new information on how oil discoveries have been used by producer governments, and analyses of the consequences. Finally it concludes that much of the potential benefit to producers has been dissipated, and explains why producers may actually end up worse off despite revenue gains.
Book Synopsis The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region by : Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev
Download or read book The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region written by Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-06 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.
Book Synopsis Drivers of Oil Prices: The Usefulness and Limitations of Non- Structural Model, the Demand-Supply Framework and Informal Approaches by : Bassam Fattouh
Download or read book Drivers of Oil Prices: The Usefulness and Limitations of Non- Structural Model, the Demand-Supply Framework and Informal Approaches written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
