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Nuclear Rhetoric And Escalation Management In Russias War Against Ukraine A Chronology
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Book Synopsis Nuclear Rhetoric and Escalation Management in Russia's War Against Ukraine, a Chronology by : Liviu Horovitz
Download or read book Nuclear Rhetoric and Escalation Management in Russia's War Against Ukraine, a Chronology written by Liviu Horovitz and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the night of February 23, 2022, Russian forces crossed into Ukraine, seeking to capture Kyiv within days. A few hours later, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a “special military operation.” In his speech, the Kremlin leader warned those who tried to stand in Russia’s way that they would face “never seen” consequences – a statement many interpreted as a thinly veiled threat to employ nuclear weapons. Our analytical bottom line is that, compared to 2022, Russia’s nuclear rhetoric has toned down. In this fourth issue of the chronology we analysed all statements of the past five months, from February 2023 until June 2023. Both escalatory statements we identified in this time period concerned the Russian stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus. Otherwise, the tensions remained at the level of warnings, spotted with a few de-escalatory statements. Overall, with only two escalatory statements from Moscow, Russia’s nuclear rhetoric was less threatening compared to the five months prior which saw eight Russian and one Western escalatory statements.
Book Synopsis Russia's Catch-all Nuclear Rhetoric in Its War Against Ukraine by : Liviu Horovitz
Download or read book Russia's Catch-all Nuclear Rhetoric in Its War Against Ukraine written by Liviu Horovitz and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A close reading of Russia's nuclear statements and actions during the first seven months of its war against Ukraine reveals a threefold approach. Moscow is walking a fine line between a well-crafted and successful deterrence strategy to prevent foreign military intervention; a more modest and rather unsuccessful attempt at dissuading foreign aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia; and incremental nuclear coercion against Kyiv that spurred Western deterrence messaging in response. This analysis reveals a careful Russian approach, suggesting that cost-benefit calculations are likely to continue to render nuclear escalation unlikely. However, nuclear use cannot be fully discounted, particularly if war-related developments severely imperil the survival of Russia's regime.
Book Synopsis Russia’s War on Ukraine by : Adérito Vicente
Download or read book Russia’s War on Ukraine written by Adérito Vicente and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-10-03 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores how Russia’s War on Ukraine has changed the global nuclear order. The Russian aggression against Ukraine questioned the values of the liberal regimes and systems upon which the global nuclear order is built. At the heart of this nuclear order lies the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which remains until today the cornerstone of the global nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation regime. In this context, the book examines new challenges and threats to the global nuclear order. It discusses the deterioration of nuclear norms, as well as the increasing number of the states further challenging the NPT regime by attempts to develop nuclear weapons. The book further sheds light on a growing number of states trying to resolve their territorial claims using the nuclear coercion and the umbrella function of their nuclear arsenals. The authors present the loopholes in the existing arms control system and the arms trade, which became obvious in the course of the war, and analyze the further split between the supporters of the NPT and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Srutinizing the deepening polarization of the supporters and the opponents of nuclear weapons, the book includes a new debate about the competing narratives on nuclear deterrence and disarmament. Finally, the volume discusses the development and the increase of new missiles and disruptive technologies such as hypersonic missiles, drones, and artificial intelligence. This book will appeal to students and scholars of international relations and political science in general, and security studies, military and defense studies, peace and conflict studies, and foreign policy in particular, as well as policy-makers interested in a better understanding of nuclear deterrence, the global nuclear order, and the impact of Russia's war on Ukraine.
Book Synopsis Pathways to Disaster: Russia's War Against Ukraine and the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation by : Paul van Hooft
Download or read book Pathways to Disaster: Russia's War Against Ukraine and the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation written by Paul van Hooft and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Russia’s War and the Global Nuclear Order by : Névine Schepers
Download or read book Russia’s War and the Global Nuclear Order written by Névine Schepers and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Russia’s war in Ukraine, conducted behind the shield of nuclear deterrence and the threat of escalation, has increased the salience of nuclear weapons worldwide. It endangers the multilateral norms and processes in place to prevent nuclear proliferation and complicates any near-term prospects for disarmament.
Book Synopsis Inadvertent Escalation by : Barry R. Posen
Download or read book Inadvertent Escalation written by Barry R. Posen and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.
Book Synopsis On Theories of Victory, Red and Blue by : Brad Roberts
Download or read book On Theories of Victory, Red and Blue written by Brad Roberts and published by . This book was released on 2020-05-10 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the United States and its allies put their military focus on the post-9/11 challenges of counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency, Russia and China put their military focus onto the United States and the risks of regional wars that they came to believe they might have to fight against the United States. Their first priority was to put their intellectual houses in order-that is, to adapt military thought and strategic planning to the new problem. The result is a set of ideas about how to bring the United States and its allies to a "culminating point" where they choose to no longer run the costs and risks of continued war. This is the "red theory of victory." Beginning in the second presidential term of Obama administration, the U.S. military focus began to shift, driven by rising Russian and Chinese military assertiveness and outspoken opposition to the regional security orders on their peripheries. But U.S. military thought has been slow to catch up. As a recent bipartisan congressional commission concluded, the U.S. intellectual house is dangerously out of order for this new strategic problem. There is no Blue theory of victory. Such a theory should explain how the United States and its allies can strip away the confidence of leaders in Moscow and Beijing (and Pyongyang) in their "escalation calculus"-that is, that they will judge the costs too high, the benefits to low, and the risks incalculable. To develop, improve, and implement the needed new concepts requires a broad campaign of activities by the United States and full partnership with its allies.
Book Synopsis The NATO-Russia Relationship by : Julianne Smith
Download or read book The NATO-Russia Relationship written by Julianne Smith and published by CSIS. This book was released on 2008 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Extraterrestrial Ethics by : Jensine Andresen
Download or read book Extraterrestrial Ethics written by Jensine Andresen and published by Ethics International Press. This book was released on 2023-11-25 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique book takes both inductive and deductive approaches to the topic of extraterrestrial ethics. Inductively, it asks what kind of ethics an advanced, intelligent extraterrestrial species might display. Deductively, it asks how human beings should transform their own understanding of ethics to prepare for widespread contact with an advanced extraterrestrial species. Using the ontological interpretation of quantum mechanics proposed by physicist and philosopher David Bohm, Extraterrestrial Ethics considers how an extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) may view ethical concerns relating to humankind. The book examines two areas of concern: nuclear technologies; and the militarization and weaponization of space. The text of the Fiscal Year 2022 National Defense Authorization Act (FY22 NDAA) in the United States clearly states that Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) have been reported at sites associated with nuclear weapons, nuclear-powered ships and submarines, nuclear power generating stations, etc., suggesting that ETI is very concerned about the human use of nuclear technologies. Furthermore, the more ubiquitous level of UAP sightings by the U.S. military over the last few years, as documented in the June 2021 report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in the U.S., suggest that ETI also is concerned about rapid acceleration relating to the militarization and weaponization of space. The book concludes by advocating a normative approach to de-militarize space.
Book Synopsis On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century by : Jeffrey A Larsen
Download or read book On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century written by Jeffrey A Larsen and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2014-04-02 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These essays by nuclear policy experts provide “a speculative but serious and well-informed journey through a variety of scenarios and contingencies” (Foreign Affairs). Recent decades have seen a slow but steady increase in nuclear armed states, and in the seemingly less constrained policy goals of some of the newer “rogue” states in the international system. The authors of On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century argue that a time may come when one of these states makes the conscious decision that using a nuclear weapon against the United States, its allies, or forward deployed forces in the context of a crisis or a regional conventional conflict may be in its interests. They assert that we are unprepared for these types of limited nuclear wars and that it is urgent we rethink the theory, policy, and implementation of force related to our approaches to this type of engagement. Together they critique Cold War doctrine on limited nuclear war and consider a number of the key concepts that should govern our approach to limited nuclear conflict in the future. These include identifying the factors likely to lead to limited nuclear war; examining the geopolitics of future conflict scenarios that might lead to small-scale nuclear use; and assessing strategies for crisis management and escalation control. Finally, they consider a range of strategies and operational concepts for countering, controlling, or containing limited nuclear war. “A series of trenchant essays that deconstruct a critical national security challenge that most of us wish did not exist. Assembling a star-studded cast of scholars, analysts, and policy practitioners, Larsen and Kartchner have produced some of the most important new thinking on an old topic.” —H-Diplo
Book Synopsis NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020 by : Frans Osinga
Download or read book NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020 written by Frans Osinga and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-12-03 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.
Book Synopsis Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice by :
Download or read book Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2004 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nearly 40 years after the concept of finite deterrence was popularized by the Johnson administration, nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) thinking appears to be in decline. The United States has rejected the notion that threatening population centers with nuclear attacks is a legitimate way to assure deterrence. Most recently, it withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, an agreement based on MAD. American opposition to MAD also is reflected in the Bush administration's desire to develop smaller, more accurate nuclear weapons that would reduce the number of innocent civilians killed in a nuclear strike. Still, MAD is influential in a number of ways. First, other countries, like China, have not abandoned the idea that holding their adversaries' cities at risk is necessary to assure their own strategic security. Nor have U.S. and allied security officials and experts fully abandoned the idea. At a minimum, acquiring nuclear weapons is still viewed as being sensible to face off a hostile neighbor that might strike one's own cities. Thus, our diplomats have been warning China that Japan would be under tremendous pressure to go nuclear if North Korea persisted in acquiring a few crude weapons of its own. Similarly, Israeli officials have long argued, without criticism, that they would not be second in acquiring nuclear weapons in the Middle East. Indeed, given that Israelis surrounded by enemies that would not hesitate to destroy its population if they could, Washington finds Israel's retention of a significant nuclear capability totally "understandable."
Book Synopsis Expanding NATO: What Challenges and Opportunities Wait Ahead? by : Petre Roman
Download or read book Expanding NATO: What Challenges and Opportunities Wait Ahead? written by Petre Roman and published by TRANSATLANTIC POLICY QUARTERLY. This book was released on 2023-06-01 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an ever-changing world marked by geopolitical shifts and evolving security threats, it is crucial to reassess and adapt the collective defense architecture that underpins international stability. Established more than 70 years ago, NATO has been a crucial element of global security and a demonstration of the effectiveness of collective defense. The expansion of NATO's reach has become a significant topic of debate as the world evolves. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has effectively ensured the security of its member states through a collective defense framework, making it a successful alliance. The evolving global landscape, which includes emerging threats, changing power dynamics, and evolving security challenges, has led to a reassessment of NATO's role and scope. There are those who advocate for the acceptance of NATO's expansion as a means of strengthening security and fostering collaboration among nations with similar values. The argument posits that enlarging NATO's membership can function as a deterrent against acts of aggression, strengthen democratic principles, and promote a more stable global system. This special issue, which we had the great pleasure of working together with NATO’s Public Diplomacy Divison, seeks to delve into the multifaceted dimensions of expanding NATO, exploring the challenges and opportunities that lie on the horizon. As we examine this critical issue, it is important to emphasize that the views expressed in these pages are diverse and reflect the complex and varied perspectives on NATO's expansion. Our authors, specialists from a wide-range of different fields, contributed their valuable opinions regarding this important discussion which has become further important since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has escalated with simultaneously intensifying debates concerning the start of a new Cold-War in our time. Romania's former Prime Minister, Petre Roman, emphasizes the significance of NATO's eastward expansion as a crucial geopolitical process. He highlights how this expansion allowed countries to prepare for potential Russian aggression while pursuing the path of successful democracy. Romania, having emerged from the oppressive communist regime of Ceausescu, eagerly sought NATO membership, and officially joined in 2004. Geographically positioned at the heart of NATO's objectives, Romania plays a central role in the defensive complex within the "post-Soviet space." With Poland guarding the Baltic Sea, Romania stands as a pivotal defender of the Black Sea region, where historical Russian imperial ambitions persist. Moreover, Romania's commitment to NATO is demonstrated through its active participation in Western missions and its role in safeguarding vital corridors, such as the precious grain corridor. This article sheds light on Romania's strong pro-Atlantic and pro-American sentiment, positioning the country as a model ally within the alliance. Professor Richard Higgot and Professor Simon Reich critically examine the prevailing narratives surrounding the structure of the world order, ranging from bi-polarity and multi-polarity to predictions of the end of globalization or a "Cold War v. 2.0." They caution against the tendency of pundits to assert rather than reason these explanations, often seeking fleeting moments of fame. Instead, their paper takes a more modest approach, eschewing grand statements about world order and emphasizing the inherent uncertainty of the future. Their paper offers valuable insights into the nuanced dynamics of a fuzzy bifurcation, emphasizing that the behavior of different actors is influenced by a more fluid and less predictable global landscape. By exploring the implications for NATO, Higgot and Reich contribute to a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities that arise in an increasingly complex international environment. Professor Roger E. Kanet undertakes a comprehensive examination of Vladimir Putin's commitment to rebuilding "Greater Russia" and its implications, particularly in the context of the invasion of Ukraine. Putin's vision revolves around re-establishing the former Soviet Union and extending Russian dominance beyond its borders, driven by a belief in the historical and cultural ties between Russians and Ukrainians. Professor Kanet argues that despite other influencing factors, the re-establishment of Moscow's influence and control over as much post-Soviet territory as possible, essentially recreating "Greater Russia," is of utmost importance. While NATO expansion may have been a contributing issue, the author contends that the dominance of Ukraine is a primary objective. Moreover, the successful domination of Ukraine could pave the way for future expansion into other former Soviet areas, such as the Baltics. Professor Ryszard Zieba adopts an offensive realist perspective to examine the implications of NATO's post-Cold War enlargement. The article highlights that these implications unfold on multiple levels, encompassing various aspects of the international landscape. Through this lens, Professor Ryszard Zieba's article offers a comprehensive analysis of the implications of NATO's post-Cold War enlargement. By examining these implications on multiple levels, the article sheds light on the intricate dynamics and challenges that arise in the evolving international landscape. The insights presented contribute to a deeper understanding of the complex interactions between NATO, Russia, and other global actors, urging careful consideration of the consequences of NATO's expansion and its ongoing policy choices. We encourage you to learn more about “Expanding NATO: What Challenges and Opportunities Wait Ahead?”. On behalf of Transatlantic Policy Quarterly, I would like to express my gratitude to all the contributors who committed a significant amount of effort and work. The TPQ team has had a great time putting together this special issue. An important acknowledgment goes to our partner for this special issue, NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division. Moreover, we are grateful for our Premium Cooparete Sponsor for this issue, Tüpraş. We also like to thank our other sponsors, Halifax, TEB, and Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi for their ongoing support.
Book Synopsis Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction by : Antulio J. Echevarria II
Download or read book Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction written by Antulio J. Echevarria II and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction adapts Clausewitz's framework to highlight the dynamic relationship between the main elements of strategy: purpose, method, and means. Drawing on historical examples, Antulio J. Echevarria discusses the major types of military strategy and how emerging technologies are affecting them. This second edition has been updated to include an expanded chapter on manipulation through cyberwarfare and new further reading.
Book Synopsis Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO (Enlarged Edition) by : Thomas M. Nichols
Download or read book Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO (Enlarged Edition) written by Thomas M. Nichols and published by . This book was released on 2013-05-26 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "NATO has been a "nuclear" alliance since its inception. Nuclear weapons have served the dual purpose of being part of NATO military planning as well as being central to the Alliance's deterrence strategy. For over 4 decades, NATO allies sought to find conventional and nuclear forces, doctrines, and agreed strategies that linked the defense of Europe to that of the United States. Still, in light of the evolving security situation, the Alliance must now consider the role and future of tactical or non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs). Two clear conclusions emerge from this analysis. First, in the more than 2 decades since the end of the Cold War, the problem itself -- that is, the question of what to do with weapons designed in a previous century for the possibility of a World War III against a military alliance that no longer exists -- is understudied, both inside and outside of government. Tactical weapons, although less awesome than their strategic siblings, carry significant security and political risks, and they have not received the attention that is commensurate to their importance. Second, it is clear that whatever the future of these arms, the status quo is unacceptable. It is past the time for NATO to make more resolute decisions, find a coherent strategy, and formulate more definite plans about its nuclear status. Consequently, decisions about the role of nuclear weapons within the Alliance and the associated supporting analysis are fundamental to the future identity of NATO. At the Lisbon Summit in Portugal in November 2010, the Alliance agreed to conduct the Deterrence and Defense Posture Review (DDPR). This effort is designed to answer these difficult questions prior to the upcoming NATO Summit in May 2012. The United States and its closest allies must define future threats and, in doing so, clarify NATO's identity, purpose, and corresponding force requirements. So far, NATO remains a "nuclear alliance," but it is increasingly hard to define what that means."--Publisher's website
Book Synopsis West-Russia Relations in Light of the Ukraine Crisis by : Riccardo Alcaro
Download or read book West-Russia Relations in Light of the Ukraine Crisis written by Riccardo Alcaro and published by Edizioni Nuova Cultura. This book was released on 2015 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In light of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and destabilization of Ukraine, West-Russia relations have so dramatically deteriorated that talk of a new Cold War has become routine. NATO’s role in Europe is again in the spotlight, with experts and policymakers pondering whether the Alliance needs to go back to its historical roots and re-calibrate itself as an instrument of defence from and containment of Russia. At the same time, cooperation between Russia and the West has not collapsed altogether coordinate on issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme. Clearly, tensions over Ukraine are so strong that the risk of a breakdown in relations cannot be ruled out. The contributions to this volume, the result of an international conference jointly organized by the Istituto Affari Internazionali and the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, analyze the dramatic shift in Europe’s strategic context and explore the question of whether Russia and the West can contain tensions, manage competition, and keep cooperating on issues of mutual concern.
Book Synopsis Russia's Military Interventions by : Samuel Charap
Download or read book Russia's Military Interventions written by Samuel Charap and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2021-09-27 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Moscow's use of its military abroad in recent years has radically reshaped perceptions of Russia as an international actor. With the 2014 annexation of Crimea, the invasion of eastern Ukraine and sustainment of an insurgency there, and (in particular) the 2015 intervention in Syria, Russia repeatedly surprised U.S. policymakers with its willingness and ability to use its military to achieve its foreign policy objectives. Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since the end of the Cold War. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions by analyzing the 25 interventions that Russia has undertaken since 1991, including detailed case studies of the 2008 Russia-Georgia War and Moscow's involvement in the ongoing Syrian civil war. The authors suggest that Russia is most likely to intervene to prevent erosion of its influence in its neighborhood, particularly following a shock that portends such an erosion occurring rapidly. If there were to be a regime change in a core Russian regional ally, such as Belarus or Armenia, that brought to power a government hostile to Moscow's interests, it is possible (if not likely) that a military intervention could ensue.
