Nowcasting The Business Cycle

Download Nowcasting The Business Cycle full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Nowcasting The Business Cycle ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!

Nowcasting the Business Cycle

Author : James Picerno
Publisher : CreateSpace
ISBN 13 : 9781492923855
Total Pages : 154 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (238 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Nowcasting the Business Cycle by : James Picerno

Download or read book Nowcasting the Business Cycle written by James Picerno and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-04 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowcasting The Business Cycle presents a practical guide for analyzing recession risk—the primary risk factor that drives success and failure in business, finance, wealth management, and so much more. Whether you're an individual investor watching over your retirement account; the owner of a small business; a manager running a billion-dollar pension fund; or a CEO in charge of a global corporation, a large portion of triumph and defeat is closely linked with the broad swings in the economy. The business cycle, in other words, is the mother of all known (and recurring) risk factors. Accordingly, developing a process for assessing the likelihood of this threat is critical. Everyone needs a reliable, timely warning system that's relatively uncomplicated and transparent. Drawing on economic theory and macro's historical record, Nowcasting The Business Cycle outlines a simple but effective model for identifying those times when a new recession has probably started. This isn't forecasting, which is a fool's errand when it comes to the economy. Instead, the goal is recognizing when a majority of key indicators have already reached a tipping point. That may sound like a trivial advantage, but most people—including many economists—don't fully recognize when a recession has begun until the deterioration is obvious. By that point, the opportunity has probably passed for taking defensive measures in your investment portfolio, your business, or your career. The real challenge is less about predicting and more about developing solid intuition for recognizing when the macro threat is exceptionally high. Even a small degree of progress here can provide a considerable boost to your strategic insight. If we can learn the techniques for recognizing a cyclical downturn's presence relatively early—soon after it's begun, or just as it's starting—we'll have an advantage that tends to elude most folks. Nowcasting The Business Cycle provides a roadmap for ensuring that you won't be caught by surprise when the next recession strikes. That's a crucial advantage for one powerful reason: There's always another recession coming.

Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780734040060
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available by :

Download or read book Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A canonical model is described which reflects the real time informational context of decision-making. Comparisons are drawn with 'conventional' models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not available at the time. It is argued that conventional models are misspecified and misinterpret news. However, neither diagnostic tests applied to the conventional models nor typical impulse response analysis will be able to expose these deficiencies clearly. This is demonstrated through an analysis of quarterly US data 1968q4-2006q1. However, estimated real time models considerably improve out-of-sample forecasting performance, provide more accurate 'nowcasts' of the current state of the macroeconomy and provide more timely indicators of the business cycle. The point is illustrated through an analysis of the US recessions of 1990q3--1991q2 and 2001q--2001q4.

Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Interpretation of New Information when Real-time Data are Available

Author : Kevin Lee
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (644 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Interpretation of New Information when Real-time Data are Available by : Kevin Lee

Download or read book Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Interpretation of New Information when Real-time Data are Available written by Kevin Lee and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics

Author : Katharine G. Abraham
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022680125X
Total Pages : 502 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (268 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics by : Katharine G. Abraham

Download or read book Big Data for Twenty-First-Century Economic Statistics written by Katharine G. Abraham and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2022-03-11 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction.Big data for twenty-first-century economic statistics: the future is now /Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian C. Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro --Toward comprehensive use of big data in economic statistics.Reengineering key national economic indicators /Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, David Johnson, and Matthew D. Shapiro ;Big data in the US consumer price index: experiences and plans /Crystal G. Konny, Brendan K. Williams, and David M. Friedman ;Improving retail trade data products using alternative data sources /Rebecca J. Hutchinson ;From transaction data to economic statistics: constructing real-time, high-frequency, geographic measures of consumer spending /Aditya Aladangady, Shifrah Aron-Dine, Wendy Dunn, Laura Feiveson, Paul Lengermann, and Claudia Sahm ;Improving the accuracy of economic measurement with multiple data sources: the case of payroll employment data /Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Ryan A. Decker, Adrian Hamins-Puertolas, and Christopher Kurz --Uses of big data for classification.Transforming naturally occurring text data into economic statistics: the case of online job vacancy postings /Arthur Turrell, Bradley Speigner, Jyldyz Djumalieva, David Copple, and James Thurgood ;Automating response evaluation for franchising questions on the 2017 economic census /Joseph Staudt, Yifang Wei, Lisa Singh, Shawn Klimek, J. Bradford Jensen, and Andrew Baer ;Using public data to generate industrial classification codes /John Cuffe, Sudip Bhattacharjee, Ugochukwu Etudo, Justin C. Smith, Nevada Basdeo, Nathaniel Burbank, and Shawn R. Roberts --Uses of big data for sectoral measurement.Nowcasting the local economy: using Yelp data to measure economic activity /Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim, and Michael Luca ;Unit values for import and export price indexes: a proof of concept /Don A. Fast and Susan E. Fleck ;Quantifying productivity growth in the delivery of important episodes of care within the Medicare program using insurance claims and administrative data /John A. Romley, Abe Dunn, Dana Goldman, and Neeraj Sood ;Valuing housing services in the era of big data: a user cost approach leveraging Zillow microdata /Marina Gindelsky, Jeremy G. Moulton, and Scott A. Wentland --Methodological challenges and advances.Off to the races: a comparison of machine learning and alternative data for predicting economic indicators /Jeffrey C. Chen, Abe Dunn, Kyle Hood, Alexander Driessen, and Andrea Batch ;A machine learning analysis of seasonal and cyclical sales in weekly scanner data /Rishab Guha and Serena Ng ;Estimating the benefits of new products /W. Erwin Diewert and Robert C. Feenstra.

Nowcasting Business Cycle Turning Points with Stock Networks and Machine Learning

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789289944113
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (441 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Nowcasting Business Cycle Turning Points with Stock Networks and Machine Learning by :

Download or read book Nowcasting Business Cycle Turning Points with Stock Networks and Machine Learning written by and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a granular framework that makes use of advanced statistical methods to approximate developments in economy-wide expected corporate earnings. In particular, we evaluate the dynamic network structure of stock returns in the United States as a proxy for the transmission of shocks through the economy and identify node positions (firms) whose connectedness provides a signal for economic growth. The nowcasting exercise, with both the in-sample and the out-of-sample consistent feature selection, highlights which firms are contemporaneously exposed to aggregate downturns and provides a more complete narrative than is usually provided by more aggregate data. The two-state model for predicting periods of negative growth can remarkably well predict future states by using information derived from the node-positions of manufacturing, transportation and financial (particularly insurance) firms. The three-states model, which identifies high, low and negative growth, successfully predicts economic regimes by making use of information from the financial, insurance, and retail sectors.

Alternative Economic Indicators

Author : C. James Hueng
Publisher : W.E. Upjohn Institute
ISBN 13 : 0880996765
Total Pages : 133 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (89 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Alternative Economic Indicators by : C. James Hueng

Download or read book Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.

Business Cycle Economics

Author : Todd A. Knoop
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 348 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (16 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Business Cycle Economics by : Todd A. Knoop

Download or read book Business Cycle Economics written by Todd A. Knoop and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2015-02-17 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents the empirical data of business cycles and the theories that economists have developed to explain and prevent them, and considers case studies of recessions and depressions in the United States and internationally. Despite more than two centuries of debate, a definitive explanation of the causes of economic cycles still does not exist. Economists, politicians, and policymakers have argued many well-known theories as to why these peaks and slumps occur, and cyclical recessions and depressions continue in spite of the enormous intellectual reserves working to prevent them. This timely analysis presents a comprehensive overview of global economics, assessing older theories alongside of new ways of thinking to reveal the empirical methods needed to evaluate, forecast, and prevent future crises. Educator and economist Todd Knoop provides explanations of influential macroeconomic theories that have shaped modern economics, such as Keynesian economics, Neoclassical economics, Austrian economics, and New Keynesian economics. In addition, he considers case studies of specific recessions and depressions, beginning with the Great Depression through the East Asian crisis and Great Recession in Japan and culminating with a detailed examination of the European debt crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. The work concludes with a look at the insights gained from these fiscal events as well as the major questions that still remain unanswered as a result of these crises.

Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy

Author : Avi Goldfarb
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022620684X
Total Pages : 510 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy by : Avi Goldfarb

Download or read book Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy written by Avi Goldfarb and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015-05-08 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a small and growing literature that explores the impact of digitization in a variety of contexts, but its economic consequences, surprisingly, remain poorly understood. This volume aims to set the agenda for research in the economics of digitization, with each chapter identifying a promising area of research. "Economics of Digitization "identifies urgent topics with research already underway that warrant further exploration from economists. In addition to the growing importance of digitization itself, digital technologies have some features that suggest that many well-studied economic models may not apply and, indeed, so many aspects of the digital economy throw normal economics in a loop. "Economics of Digitization" will be one of the first to focus on the economic implications of digitization and to bring together leading scholars in the economics of digitization to explore emerging research.

Nowcasting Business Cycles

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (921 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Nowcasting Business Cycles by :

Download or read book Nowcasting Business Cycles written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Data Science for Economics and Finance

Author : Sergio Consoli
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030668916
Total Pages : 357 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (36 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Data Science for Economics and Finance by : Sergio Consoli

Download or read book Data Science for Economics and Finance written by Sergio Consoli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.

Dynamic Asset Allocation

Author : James Picerno
Publisher : Bloomberg Press
ISBN 13 : 9781576603598
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (35 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Dynamic Asset Allocation by : James Picerno

Download or read book Dynamic Asset Allocation written by James Picerno and published by Bloomberg Press. This book was released on 2010-02-17 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today’s modern portfolio theory is not your father’s MPT. It has undergone many changes in the past fifty years. Indeed, a new understanding of MPT has emerged, one that has a significant impact on managing asset allocation—especially in today’s turbulent markets. Dynamic Asset Allocation interprets and integrates the developments in modern portfolio theory: from the efficient-market hypothesis and indexing of decades past to strategies for building winning portfolios today. The book is filled with practical, hands-on advice for investors, including guidance on approaching investment as a risk-management task.

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author : Michael P. Clements
Publisher : OUP USA
ISBN 13 : 0195398645
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Michael P. Clements

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses

Author : John Haltiwanger
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022645407X
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (264 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses by : John Haltiwanger

Download or read book Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses written by John Haltiwanger and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2017-09-21 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges brings together and unprecedented group of economists, data providers, and data analysts to discuss research on the state of entrepreneurship and to address the challenges in understanding this dynamic part of the economy. Each chapter addresses the challenges of measuring entrepreneurship and how entrepreneurial firms contribute to economies and standards of living. The book also investigates heterogeneity in entrepreneurs, challenges experienced by entrepreneurs over time, and how much less we know than we think about entrepreneurship given data limitations. This volume will be a groundbreaking first serious look into entrepreneurship in the NBER's Income and Wealth series.

The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle

Author : Paul A. Volcker
Publisher : New York : Free Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 104 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle by : Paul A. Volcker

Download or read book The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle written by Paul A. Volcker and published by New York : Free Press. This book was released on 1978 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data

Author : Nikos Askitas
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (11 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data by : Nikos Askitas

Download or read book Nowcasting Business Cycles Using Toll Data written by Nikos Askitas and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across the country and has highly desirable availability properties (insignificant revisions, short publication lags) as a result of the innovative technology underlying its data collection. It is coincident with production activity due to the prevalence of just-in-time delivery. The Toll Index is a good early indicator of production as measured for instance by the German Production Index, provided by the German Statistical Office, which is a well-known leading indicator of the Gross National Product. The proposed new index is an excellent example of technological, innovation-driven economic telemetry, which we suggest should be established more around the world.

Business Cycles and Forecasting

Author : Elmer Clark Bratt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781258454982
Total Pages : 514 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (549 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Business Cycles and Forecasting by : Elmer Clark Bratt

Download or read book Business Cycles and Forecasting written by Elmer Clark Bratt and published by . This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecasting in Business and Economics

Author : C. W. J. Granger
Publisher : Academic Press Incorporated
ISBN 13 : 9780122951817
Total Pages : 290 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (518 download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Book Synopsis Forecasting in Business and Economics by : C. W. J. Granger

Download or read book Forecasting in Business and Economics written by C. W. J. Granger and published by Academic Press Incorporated. This book was released on 1989-04-28 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes the major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This book focuses on the forecasting of economic data and covers a range of topics, including the description of the Box-Jenkins single series modeling techniques; forecasts from purely statistical and econometric models; nonstationary and nonlinear models; and more.