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North Pacific Climate And Ecosystem Predictability On Seasonal To Decadal Timescales
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Book Synopsis North pacific climate and ecosystem predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales by : Shoshiro Minobe
Download or read book North pacific climate and ecosystem predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales written by Shoshiro Minobe and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2023-05-10 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Simulation and Prediction of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature by : Fabian Lienert
Download or read book Simulation and Prediction of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature written by Fabian Lienert and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first part of this thesis is an assessment of the ability of global climate models to reproduce observed features of the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) mode of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The simulations from 13 global climate models I am analyzing were performed under phase 3 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3). In particular, I am investigating whether these climate models capture tropical influences on the PDO, and the influences of the PDO on North American surface temperature and precipitation. My results are that 1) the models as group produce a realistic pattern of the PDO. The simulated variance of the PDO index is overestimated by roughly 30%. 2)The tropical influence on North Pacific SSTs is biased systematically in these models. The simulated response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing is delayed compared to the observed response. This tendency is consistent with model biases toward deeper oceanic mixed layers in winter and spring and weaker air-sea feedbacks in the winter half-year. Model biases in mixed layer depths and air-sea feedbacks are also associated with a model mean ENSO-related signal in the North Pacific whose amplitude is overestimated by roughly 30%. Finally, model power spectra of the PDO signal and its ENSO-forced component are?redder? than observed due to errors originating in the tropics and extratropics. 3) The models are quite successful at capturing the influence of both the tropical Pacific related and the extratropical part of the PDO on North American surface temperature. 4) The models capture some of the influence of the PDO on North American precipitation mainly due to its tropical Pacific related part. In the second part of this thesis, I investigate the ability of one such coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model, carefully initialized with observations, to dynamically predict the future evolution of the PDO on seasonal to decadal time scales. I am using forecasts produced by the Canadian climate data assimilation and prediction system employing the Canadian climate model CanCM3 for seasonal (CHFP2) and CanCM4 for decadal (DHFP1) predictions. The skill of this system in predicting the future evolution of the PDO index is then inferred from a set of historical?forecasts? called hindcasts. In this manner, hindcasts are issued over the past 30 years (seasonal), or over the past 50 years (decadal) when they can be verified against the observed historical evolution of the PDO index. I find that 1) CHFP2 is successful at predicting the PDO at the seasonal timescale measured by mean-square skill score and correlation skill. Weather?noise? unpredictable at the seasonal time scale generated by substantial North Pacific stormtrack activity that coincides with a shallow oceanic mixed layer in May and June appear to pose a prediction barrier for the PDO. PDO skill therefore depends on the start season of the forecast. PDO skill also varies as a function of the target month. Variations in North Pacific storminess appear to impact PDO skill by means of a lagged response of the ocean mixed layer to weather noise. In CHFP2, times of increasing North Pacific storm track activity are followed by times of reduced PDO skill, while the North Pacific midwinter suppression of storm track ...
Book Synopsis Seasonal to Decadal Prediction of Marine Ecosystems: Opportunities, Approaches, and Applications by : Mark R. Payne
Download or read book Seasonal to Decadal Prediction of Marine Ecosystems: Opportunities, Approaches, and Applications written by Mark R. Payne and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2019-06-28 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tremendous advances in oceanographic observing and modeling systems over the last decade have led to unprecedented developments in the nature of information available to marine science. While improvements in observational technologies and networks have garnered much attention, remarkable developments in forecasting the ocean have received much less focus. Exploiting this new predictive skill to improve scientific understanding, generate advice and aid in the management of marine resources, is emerging as one of the new challenges of marine science. Translating predictions of the physical environment into biological outcomes, however, is not straightforward. Fisheries scientists, for example, have been trying to understand the links between physics and biology, and generate predictions of variables such as recruitment, for close to a century, with limited success. Nevertheless, spatial distributions and the timing of key events, which have received less focus, are often tightly linked to the physical environment and may have management-relevant applications. The first-such forecasts based on this skill are now starting to emerge. This Frontiers in Marine Science Research Topic provides a snapshot of the state-of-the-art in Marine Ecological Prediction. It covers the opportunities for developing such forecasts, technical approaches that could be employed, and examples where the technology is already being applied. This body of work therefore marks an important milestone on the route to developing this new and exciting field of marine science.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309492432 Total Pages :29 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-06-18 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (National Academies Press, 2018) provides detailed guidance on how relevant federal agencies can ensure that the United States receives the maximum benefit from its investments in Earth observations from space, while operating within realistic cost constraints. This short booklet, designed to be accessible to the general public, provides a summary of the key ideas and recommendations from the full decadal survey report.
Book Synopsis Decadal Climate Variability Over the North Pacific and North America by : Mojib Latif
Download or read book Decadal Climate Variability Over the North Pacific and North America written by Mojib Latif and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Vera Alexander Publisher :Sidney, B.C. : North Pacific Marine Science Organization ISBN 13 : Total Pages :220 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (5 download)
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the PICES/CoML/IPRC Workshop on "Impact of Climate Variability on Observation and Prediction of Ecosystem and Biodiversity Changes in the North Pacific" by : Vera Alexander
Download or read book Proceedings of the PICES/CoML/IPRC Workshop on "Impact of Climate Variability on Observation and Prediction of Ecosystem and Biodiversity Changes in the North Pacific" written by Vera Alexander and published by Sidney, B.C. : North Pacific Marine Science Organization. This book was released on 2001 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate by : Michael J. McPhaden
Download or read book El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Book Synopsis The Role of the Sun in Climate Change by : Douglas V. Hoyt
Download or read book The Role of the Sun in Climate Change written by Douglas V. Hoyt and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1997 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A successful blend of astronomical and climate studies with modern scientific and statistical analysis, this history of solar observations is followed by a review of how variations in solar brightness have been measured, both from the ground and space." --New Scientist
Book Synopsis Global Environmental Change by : National Research Council
Download or read book Global Environmental Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-09-14 with total page 621 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can we understand and rise to the environmental challenges of global change? One clear answer is to understand the science of global change, not solely in terms of the processes that control changes in climate and the composition of the atmosphere, but in how ecosystems and human society interact with these changes. In the last two decades of the twentieth century, a number of such research effortsâ€"supported by computer and satellite technologyâ€"have been launched. Yet many opportunities for integration remain unexploited, and many fundamental questions remain about the earth's capacity to support a growing human population. This volume encourages a renewed commitment to understanding global change and sets a direction for research in the decade ahead. Through case studies the book explores what can be learned from the lessons of the past 20 years and what are the outstanding scientific questions. Highlights include: Research imperatives and strategies for investigators in the areas of atmospheric chemistry, climate, ecosystem studies, and human dimensions of global change. The context of climate change, including lessons to be gleaned from paleoclimatology. Human responses toâ€"and forcing ofâ€"projected global change. This book offers a comprehensive overview of global change research to date and provides a framework for answering urgent questions.
Book Synopsis North Pacific Environment and Paleoclimate from the Late Pleistocene to Present by : Miriam Jones
Download or read book North Pacific Environment and Paleoclimate from the Late Pleistocene to Present written by Miriam Jones and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2020-01-13 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The vast area of the North Pacific, spanning ~55˚ longitude, represents a challenge for documenting and understanding the geologic history of ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial environmental change. Nevertheless, its importance for many issues, including our fundamental understanding of ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns and teleconnections with natural modes of climate variability through time, has led to a steady rise in the numbers of study sites and proxy types. By bringing together a wide range of proxies and timescales that examine the impacts of paleoclimate on ecosystems, water, carbon, and humans, and interactions between marine and terrestrial processes, this Research Topic contributes to an improved understanding of the region’s significance at global, hemispheric, and regional scales.
Book Synopsis Global Climate Anomalies and Decadal North Pacific SST Variability in a Coupled GCM by : Sang-Wook Yeh
Download or read book Global Climate Anomalies and Decadal North Pacific SST Variability in a Coupled GCM written by Sang-Wook Yeh and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the 11th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop by : Caroline M. Isaacs
Download or read book Proceedings of the 11th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop written by Caroline M. Isaacs and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 1995 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 20 papers included: tree ring records from Tasmania; evaluation of the relative importance of temperature and precipitation to major paleoenvironmental changes; link between volcanism and climate cooling; examination of decadel to century time-scale variability in the climate system; nonlinear time series analysis; deterministic chaos offers a new paradigm for understanding irregular fluctuations; summer temperature reconstructions from tree-ring chronologies; paleoclimatic data for Mexico; South American hydrology; El Nino events; and more.
Book Synopsis The Low-frequency Variability of the Tropical-North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Teleconnections by : Sang-Wook Yeh
Download or read book The Low-frequency Variability of the Tropical-North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Teleconnections written by Sang-Wook Yeh and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction by : Andrew Robertson
Download or read book Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Book Synopsis On the Predictability of Decadal Changes in the North Pacific by : Stephan Venzke
Download or read book On the Predictability of Decadal Changes in the North Pacific written by Stephan Venzke and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309388805 Total Pages :351 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (93 download)
Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Beyond El Niño written by Antonio Navarra and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interest and level of research into climate variability has risen dramatically in recent years, and major breakthroughs have been achieved in the understanding and modelling of seasonal to interannual climate variability and prediction. At the same time, the documentation of longer term variability and its underlying mecha nisms have progressed considerably. Within the European Commission's Environment and Climate research programs several important projects have been supported in these areas - including the "Dec adal and Interdecadal Climate variability Experiment" (DICE) which forms the basis of this book. Within the EC supported climate research, we see an increasing importance of research into climate variability, as is evidenced in the upcoming Fifth Framework Programme's Key Action on Global Change, Climate and Biodi versity. This is because of the obvious potential socio-economic benefits from sea sonal to decadal scale climate prediction and equally important for the fundamental understanding of the climate system to help improve the quality and reliability of future climate change and mankind's current interference with it. The DICE group has performed important and pioneering work, and we hope this book will receive the wide distribution and recognition it deserves. We wel come the contributions from distinguished researchers from US, Japan and Canada to the EC's DICE group towards completing the scope of the book and as an exam ple of international cooperation which is essential in such a high-level scientific endeavor.
