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Author : Gunes Kamber
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (931 download)
Download or read book News-driven Business Cycles in Small Open Economies written by Gunes Kamber and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book News-Driven Business Cycles in Small Open Economies written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Thuy Lan Nguyen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (888 download)
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles written by Thuy Lan Nguyen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although news shocks are important in explaining the 1980 recession and the 1993-94 boom, they do not explain much of other business cycles in our sample. Moreover, the contribution of news shocks to explaining short run fluctuations is negligible. These results arise because data on expectations show that changes in expectations are not large and do not resemble actual movements of output. Therefore, news shocks cannot be the main driver of business cycles. Chapters Two and Three focus on the driving forces of business cycles in open economies. We start Chapter Two with an observation that business cycles are strongly correlated across countries. We document that this pattern is also true for small open economies between 1900 and 2006 using a novel data set for 17 small developed and developing countries. Furthermore, we provide a new evidence about the role of common shocks in business cycles for small open economies in a structural estimation of a real small open economy model featuring a realistic debt adjustment cost and common shocks.
Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513590766
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Author : Paul Beaudry
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 101 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (857 download)
Download or read book News Driven Business Cycles written by Paul Beaudry and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating its relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of its role in business cycles can be established.
Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author : Jaime Guajardo
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781451869477
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (694 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies: The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks written by Jaime Guajardo and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-04-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical evidence for small developed economies finds that consumption is procyclical and as volatile as output, and real net exports are coutercyclical. Earlier studies have not been able to reproduce these regularities in a DSGE small open economy model when productivity shocks drive the business cycles and households have a normal intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Instead, these studies have reduced this elasticity to make consumption more procyclical and volatile and real net exports countercyclical. This paper shows that a standard model can reproduce these regularities, without lowering the intertemporal substitution, if the terms of trade and foreign interest rate are added as source of business cycle fluctuations. These shocks, compared to productivity shocks, make consumption and investment more volatile and procyclical relative to output, and make real net exports countercyclical.
Author : Nir Jaimovich
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (174 download)
Download or read book News and Business Cycles in Open Economies written by Nir Jaimovich and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is well known that the neoclassical model does not generate comovement among macroeconomic aggregates in response to news about future total factor productivity. We show that this problem is generally more severe in open economy versions of the neoclassical model. We present an open economy model that generates comovement both in response to sudden stops and to news about future productivity and investment-specific technical change. We find that comovement is easier to generate in the presence of weak short-run wealth effects on the labor supply, adjustment costs to labor, and/or investment, and whenever the real interest rate faced by the economy rises with the level of net foreign debt.
Author : Paul Beaudry
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 101 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (881 download)
Download or read book News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges written by Paul Beaudry and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Thomas Haertel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (118 download)
Download or read book New Evidence on News-Driven Business Cycles written by Thomas Haertel and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Isabel Correia
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy written by Isabel Correia and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Enrique G. Mendoza
Publisher : London : Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles, Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Investment in a Small Open Economy written by Enrique G. Mendoza and published by London : Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario. This book was released on 1989 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Nir Jaimovich
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle? written by Nir Jaimovich and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycle data. Therefore, the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most existing models fail. In this paper we propose a unified model that generates both aggregate and sectoral comovement in response to contemporaneous shocks and news shocks about fundamentals. The fundamentals that we consider are aggregate and sectoral TFP shocks as well as investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and a new form of preferences that allow us to parameterize the strength of short-run wealth effects on the labor supply.
Author : Wataru Miyamoto
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (964 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles in Small, Open Economies written by Wataru Miyamoto and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Khurshid M. Kiani
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Business Cycle Fluctuations and Economic Policy written by Khurshid M. Kiani and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights the importance of studying similarity of business cycles across countries and answers the theoretical question about the behaviour of fluctuations in economic activity over different phases of business cycles. This is done by analysing cross-country data that provides sufficient empirical justifications on the behaviour of economic activity to conclude that business cycles are alike. Further, the book maintains, from the recent empirical research, that business cycles fluctuations are asymmetric. For empirical validation of the hypothesis that business cycles are asymmetric at least in the group of seven highly developed industrialised (G7) countries, real GDP growth rates from these countries are analysed using non-linear time series and switching time series models as well as in-sample and jack-knife out-of-sample forecasts from neural networks. While importance and application of non-linear and switching time series models are employed for testing possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in all the series after taking into account long memory, conditional heteroskedasticity, and time varying volatility in the series, usefulness of non-parametric techniques such as artificial neural networks forecasts are discussed and empirically tested to conclude that forecasts from neural networks are superior to the selected time series models. Additionally, the book presents a robust evidence of business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries, which is indeed, the answer to the basic research question on the behaviour of economic fluctuation over the business cycles. The book compares spill over and contagion effects due to business cycle fluctuations within the countries studied. In addition, having known the type of business cycle asymmetries, policy makers, empirical researchers, and forecasters would be able to employ appropriate forecasting models for forecasting impact of monetary policy or any other shock on the economies of these countries.
Author : Ronald Findlay
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 9780195208801
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (88 download)
Download or read book Five Small Open Economies written by Ronald Findlay and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1993 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mauritius, a multiethnic society, has turned to manufactured exports and tourism as an alternative to reliance on sugar production. Malta overcame the shock of losing a British naval base and has grown rapidly.
Author : Ha-Hyun Jo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (181 download)
Download or read book Comovements of Business Cycles in Open Economies written by Ha-Hyun Jo and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
