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New Evidence On The Interest Rate Effects Of Budget Deficits And Debt
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Book Synopsis New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt by : Thomas Laubach
Download or read book New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt written by Thomas Laubach and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Effect of Deficits on Prices of Financial Assets by :
Download or read book The Effect of Deficits on Prices of Financial Assets written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Economic Consequences of Government Deficits by : L.H. Meyer
Download or read book The Economic Consequences of Government Deficits written by L.H. Meyer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On October 29 and 30, 1982, the Center for the Study of American Business and the Institute for Banking and Financial Markets at Washington "The Economic Consequences of University cosponsored a conference on Government Deficits. " This was the sixth annual Economic Policy Con ference sponsored by the Center, and the first it has cosponsored with the Institute. This book contains the papers and comments delivered at that conference. Recent and prospective large federal deficits have prompted a thorough reconsideration of the political sources and economic consequences of government deficits. The papers in Part I focus on the implications of deficits for monetary growth and inflation, and the papers in Part II consider the effect of deficits on interest rates and capital formation. The papers in Part III deal with the political sources and remedies for the explosive growth in government spending and increased reliance on deficits. The papers in Part I by Alan S. Blinder, Professor of Economics at Princeton University, and Preston J. Miller, Assistant Vice President and Research Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, discuss the relation between monetary growth and deficits and present evidence on the of deficits on inflation and output. A deficit is said to be monetized effects vii viii THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF GOVERNMENT DEFICITS when the Federal Reserve purchases bonds to aid the Treasury in financing the deficit.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Deficits on Interest Rates, Savings, Investment, and the Dollar by : United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee
Download or read book The Impact of Deficits on Interest Rates, Savings, Investment, and the Dollar written by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Do Budget Deficits Push Up Interest Rates and Is This the Relevant Question?. by :
Download or read book Do Budget Deficits Push Up Interest Rates and Is This the Relevant Question?. written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With mounting budget deficits, attention has focused on their economic effect, particularly whether budget deficits raise interest rates. Any explanation of the budget deficit-interest rate relationship must first come to grips with an indisputable fact: budget deficits consume real resources, and this -- rather than the behavior of interest rates -- is the more relevant public policy concern. When the government borrows from the public to finance public spending or tax cuts, the resources must come from somewhere. In mainstream theory, the resources come from the nation's pool of saving, which pushes up interest rates for simple supply and demand reasons. This "crowds out" private investment that was competing with government borrowing for the same pool of national saving. For this reason, economists often describe deficits as placing a burden on future generations. But other theories offer different explanations of where the resources come from that do not involve higher interest rates. In the capital mobility view, foreigners lend the United States the savings it needs to finance a deficit, leaving interest rates unaffected. But as foreign capital comes to the country, the dollar must appreciate. This causes U.S. exports and import-competing industries to become less competitive and the trade deficit to expand. In an alternative theory, popularly known as the Barro-Ricardo view, forward-looking, rational, infinitely-lived individuals see that a budget deficit would result in higher taxes or lower government spending in the future. Therefore, they reduce their consumption and save more today. This provides the government with the saving needed to finance its deficit, placing no upward pressure on interest rates. Empirical evidence that budget deficits do not affect interest rates does not prove that government budget deficits do not impose a burden, as demonstrated by the capital mobility and Barro-Ricardo views. In the capital mobility view, deficits crowd out the trade sector of the economy; in the Barro-Ricardo view, they crowd out current private consumption. And in both of these views, deficits no longer have any stimulative effect on the economy. Comparing changes in budget deficits to changes in interest rates is not a valid way to determine whether budget deficits affect interest rates. That is because there are many other factors that also affect interest rates. To determine the effect of budget deficits on interest rates, one must hold these other factors constant using statistical methods. Otherwise, the effect of budget deficits on interest rates could be misestimated or even reversed. Empirical evidence on a link between budget deficits and interest rates is mixed. There is not a consensus among economists on how to model the economy and what relevant variables should be included. Therefore, conclusions drawn from empirical evidence vary widely. More recent evidence tends to find a stronger, positive relationship between the two. In addition, 10 major forecasting models all predict that a budget deficit would increase interest rates. According to Gale and Orszag (2002), the models predict that a budget deficit equal to 1% of GDP would increase interest rates, with a range of 0.1-1 (mean=0.52) percentage points after one year and 0.05-2 (mean=0.99) percentage points after 10 years. This report will not be updated.
Book Synopsis Budget Deficits and Economic Activity in Asia by : Kanhaya Gupta
Download or read book Budget Deficits and Economic Activity in Asia written by Kanhaya Gupta and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2006-07-13 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growth and persistence of government budget deficits is causing increasing concern in both developed and developing countries. They have provoked extreme responses: some economists hold that they have devasting effects, others that they have no real impact at all. Budget Deficits and Economic Activity in Asia examines both of these claims in the context of the Asian economies. After testing for the feasibility of the current levels of budget deficits and therefore of the current fiscal policies, the author turns to a quantification of the effects on money supply, inflation, aggregate demand and interest rates. The findings for the ten countries studied are far from uniform, but neither of the extreme positions is vindicated. Budget deficits are monetized to a considerable extent, thus impairing or at least reducing the ability of the monetary authority to pursue an independent monetary policy. The widespread view that budget deficits are inflationary because they increase the money supply receives only partial support. The apparent effects on interest rates appear to be positive and as the processes of fiscal deregulation accelerate, interest rates seem set to become even more sensitive to the behaviour of budget deficits. Countries covered include India, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan.
Book Synopsis Budget Deficit and Interest Rates by : José Nunes-Correia
Download or read book Budget Deficit and Interest Rates written by José Nunes-Correia and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: 1.Introduction - 2.Theoretical considerations - 3.Trends in long-term interest rates and budget deficits (1970-1990) - 4.The model - 5.Expected inflation and econometric issues - 6.Empirical evidence - 7.Conclusions.
Book Synopsis The Great Fiscal Experiment by : Rudolph Gerhard Penner
Download or read book The Great Fiscal Experiment written by Rudolph Gerhard Penner and published by The Urban Insitute. This book was released on 1991 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book focuses on the macro fiscal policy changes and asks what have been learned from this turbulent decade about the effects of fiscal policy on the economy.
Book Synopsis Do Deficits Matter? by : Daniel Shaviro
Download or read book Do Deficits Matter? written by Daniel Shaviro and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1997-05 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do deficits matter? Yes and no, says Daniel Shaviro in this political and economic study. Yes, because fiscal policy affects generational distribution, national saving, and the level of government spending. And no, because the deficit is an inaccurate measure with little economic content. This book provides an invaluable guide for anyone wanting to know exactly what is at stake for Americans in this ongoing debate. "[An] excellent, comprehensive, and illuminating book. Its analysis, deftly integrating considerations of economics, law, politics, and philosophy, brings the issues of 'balanced budgets,' national saving, and intergenerational equity out of the area of religious crusades and into an arena of reason. . . . A magnificent, judicious, and balanced treatment. It should be read and studied not just by specialists in fiscal policy but by all those in the economic and political community."—Robert Eisner, Journal of Economic Literature "Shaviro's history, economics, and political analysis are right on the mark. For all readers."—Library Journal
Book Synopsis Anticipated Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Interest Rates by : Daniel Valente Dantas
Download or read book Anticipated Budget Deficits and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Daniel Valente Dantas and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the implications of government deficits in an overlapping generations consumption loan model with longterm assets. The only asset in the economy is a real consol issued by the government and serviced by lumpsum taxes on the young. We explore here the time path of short and longterm interest rates following the announcement of a future,transitory budget deficit under two alternative assumptions. In one case the deficit arises from transitory government spending, in the other case from a transfer.We show that a deficit policy ultimately raises longterm interest rates and lowers consol prices. The exact shape of the path of short-term rates depends on the source of the deficit and on the saving response to interestrates. In general, though, the term structure will be v-shaped. The interest of the model resides in the fact that the prices of longterm assets link the current generations to future disturbances. Because future disturbances affect future interest rates they affect the current value of debt outstanding and hence equilibrium short-term rates. The exact manner in which the disturbances are transmitted to prior periods depends on the extent to which consumers substitute easily across time or, on the contrary, have a strong preference for consumption smoothing.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 by : Mark Gertler
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 written by Mark Gertler and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers addressed to a broad audience of public policymakers as well as to the academic community. Each paper is followed by comments and discussion to give a more complete context for the views expressed. The 2004 edition features a range of papers aimed at providing coherent and informative answers to such important questions as the effect of federal government debt on interest rates; the stochastic dimension of the American economy; the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations; and the interaction of capital flows, fiscal policy, and monetary policies in developing countries, emerging markets, and OECD countries.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields by : Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Download or read book Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields written by Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.
Book Synopsis A Nation in Debt by : Richard H. Fink
Download or read book A Nation in Debt written by Richard H. Fink and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Implications of Government Deficits for Interest Rates, Equity Returns and Corporate Financing by : Benjamin M. Friedman
Download or read book Implications of Government Deficits for Interest Rates, Equity Returns and Corporate Financing written by Benjamin M. Friedman and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How the financing of government budget deficits affects the structure of expected asset returns depends on assets' relative substitutabilities in investors' aggregate portfolio, and these substitutabilities in turn depend on how investors perceive the risks associated with the respective assets' returns. The empirical results reported in this paper, based on three different ways of representing investors' risk perceptions, consistently indicate that government deficit financing raises expected debt returns relative to expectedequity returns, regardless of the maturity of the government's financing. More specifically, financing government deficits by issuing short-term debt lowers the return on long-term debt, and lowers the return on equity by even more, relative to the return on short-term debt. Financing deficits by issuing long-term debt raises the return on long-term debt, but lowers the return on equity, again in comparison to the return on short-term debt. The indicated magnitudes of these effects differ according to the method used to represent investors' risk perceptions, but the qualitative results are consistent throughout. Moreover, many of the indicated magnitudes are large enough to matter economically. These results imply that continuing large government deficits at full employment lead to market incentives for individual business corporations to emphasize reliance on equity (including retentions), and reduce reliance on debt, in comparison with the composition of corporate financing that would prevail in the absence of the need to finance the government budget deficit
Book Synopsis Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence by : Mr.Daniel Leigh
Download or read book Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence written by Mr.Daniel Leigh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.
Book Synopsis Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates by : Eric M. Engen
Download or read book Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates written by Eric M. Engen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does government debt affect interest rates? Despite a substantial body of empirical analysis, the answer based on the past two decades of research is mixed. While many studies suggest, at most, a single-digit rise in the interest rate when government debt increases by one percent of GDP, others estimate either much larger effects or find no effect. Comparing results across studies is complicated by differences in economic models, definitions of econometric approaches, and sources of data. Using a standard set of data and a simple analytical framework, we reconsider and add to empirical evidence on the effect of federal government debt and interest rates. We begin by deriving analytically the effect of government debt on the real interest rate and find that an increase in government debt equivalent to one percent of GDP would be predicted to increase the real interest rate by about two to three basis points. While some existing studies estimate effects in this range, others find larger effects. In almost all cases, these larger estimates come from specifications relating federal deficits (as opposed to debt) and the level of interest rates or from specifications not controlling adequately for macroeconomic influences on interest rates that might be correlated with deficits. We present our own empirical analysis in two parts. First, we examine a variety of conventional reduced-form specifications linking interest rates and government debt and other variables. In particular, we provide estimates for three types of specifications to permit comparisons among different approaches taken in previous research; we estimate the effect of: an expected, or projected, measure of federal government debt on a forward-looking measure of the real interest rate; an expected, or projected, measure of federal government debt on a current measure of the real interest rate; and a current measure of federal government debt on a current measure of the real interest rate. Most of the statistically significant estimated effects are consistent with the prediction of the simple analytical calculation. Second, we provide evidence using vector autoregression analysis. In general, these results are similar to those found in our reduced-form econometric analysis and consistent with the analytical calculations. Taken together, the bulk of our empirical results suggest that an increase in federal government debt equivalent to one percent of GDP, all else equal, would be expected to increase the long-term real rate of interest by about three basis points, though one specification suggests a larger impact, while some estimates are not statistically significantly different from zero. By presenting a range of results with the same data, we illustrate the dependence of estimation on specification and definition differences.
Book Synopsis Federal Government Debts and Interest Rates by : Eric M. Engen
Download or read book Federal Government Debts and Interest Rates written by Eric M. Engen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does government debt affect interest rates? Despite a substantial body of empirical analysis, the answer based on the past two decades of research is mixed. While many studies suggest, at most, a single-digit rise in the interest rate when government debt increases by one percent of GDP, others estimate either much larger effects or find no effect. Comparing results across studies is complicated by differences in economic models, definitions of econometric approaches, and sources of data. Using a standard set of data and a simple analytical framework, we reconsider and add to empirical evidence on the effect of federal government debt and interest rates. We begin by deriving analytically the effect of government debt on the real interest rate and find that an increase in government debt equivalent to one percent of GDP would be predicted to increase the real interest rate by about two to three basis points. While some existing studies estimate effects in this range, others find larger effects. In almost all cases, these larger estimates come from specifications relating federal deficits (as opposed to debt) and the level of interest rates or from specifications not controlling adequately for macroeconomic influences on interest rates that might be correlated with deficits. We present our own empirical analysis in two parts. First, we examine a variety of conventional reduced-form specifications linking interest rates and government debt and other variables. In particular, we provide estimates for three types of specifications to permit comparisons among different approaches taken in previous research; we estimate the effect of: an expected, or projected, measure of federal government debt on a forward-looking measure of the real interest rate; an expected, or projected, measure of federal government debt on a current measure of the real interest rate; and a current measure of federal government debt on a current measure of the real interest rate. Most of.