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Monetary Policy Credibility And Exchange Rate Pass Through In South Africa
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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa by : Alain N. Kabundi
Download or read book Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa written by Alain N. Kabundi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-30 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the key factors that explain the documented decline in the exchange rate pass-through in South Africa over the past two decades, which coincides with the adoption of the inflation-targeting regime. The paper conjectures, in line with the literature, that this outcome is largely due to improved monetary policy credibility. To do this, it first documents the factors that explain monetary policy credibility. Using the standard deviation of individual inflation forecasts as a measure of monetary policy credibility, its shows that the latter is negatively affected by the level of inflation itself, monetary policy uncertainty, and a measure of the unobserved stochastic volatility of inflation. The second phase proceeds by analyzing the determinants of the pass-through using the monetary policy credibility index derived from the first phase. The paper confirms the remarkable achievement that, despite the many shocks that the economy has witnessed, the declining pass-through is indeed explained by the improving monetary policy credibility.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate, Second Round Effects and Inflation Processes by : Eliphas Ndou
Download or read book Exchange Rate, Second Round Effects and Inflation Processes written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-23 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), second round effects and the inflation process in South Africa. The authors demonstrate that magnitudes of the second round effects of the exchange rate depreciation and oil price shocks depend on inflation regimes. The impact of positive oil price shocks on inflation is weakened by monetary policy credibility. Evidence shows the influence of oil price on unit labour costs and correlation between exchange rate changes and inflation has weakened. In addition, ERPT is reduced by low business and consumer confidence, high trade openness, low inflation and high exchange rate volatility which weaken real economic activity. Both monetary and fiscal policy credibility lowers the sizes of ERPT to inflation and inflation expectations. Fiscal policy via fuel levies, administered prices and public transport inflation channel impacts the responses of monetary policy to inflation shocks. The authors show that second round effects contribute very little to wage inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock. Both lending rate and household consumption responds asymmetrical to repo rate changes. This book will appeal to policymakers, students, academics and analysts.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Volatility and Pass-Through to Inflation in South Africa by : Mr.Ken Miyajima
Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility and Pass-Through to Inflation in South Africa written by Mr.Ken Miyajima and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-13 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does the South African rand’s relatively large volatility affect inflation? To shed some light on this question, a standard estimation technique of exchange rate pass-through to inflation is extended to incorporate exchange rate volatility. Estimated results suggest that higher exchange rate volatility tends to increase core inflation but to a relatively limited extent in South Africa. The finding lends support to the policy of allowing the rand to float freely and work as a shock absorber, consistent with the nation’s successful inflation targeting regime.
Book Synopsis Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy in South Africa by : Janine Aron
Download or read book Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy in South Africa written by Janine Aron and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis South Africa by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book South Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-30 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper studies the growth-inflation trade-off of monetary policy in South Africa. The combination of low growth and stubbornly high inflation expectations for a protracted period has complicated monetary policy decisions. The IMF staff analysis contributes to the ongoing growth-inflation trade-off discussion in South Africa, concluding that there is limited growth trade-off of monetary policy efforts to anchor inflation expectations at a lower level at present. The findings in this note suggest that the South African Reserve Bank should continue its efforts of anchoring inflation and inflation expectations at a lower level because monetary policy lends limited support to growth dampened by structural issues. During the 2010s, domestic demand growth responded little to monetary policy action. The environment of weak growth, low interest rates, and relatively moderate inflation (expectations) could have muted monetary policy transmission. Ultimately, the constraints to economic growth need to be removed. Meanwhile, inflation expectations continue to respond to monetary policy action albeit to a lesser extent. Monetary policy transmission through demand has weakened––demand growth does not systematically respond to monetary policy action nor does core inflation––but the exchange rate and credibility channels appear to remain operational.
Book Synopsis An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-06 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline.
Book Synopsis Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Laurent Kemoe
Download or read book Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Laurent Kemoe and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-15 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence on the exchange rate passthrough to domestic inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using both bilateral US dollar exchange rate and the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), and monthly data. We find that depreciations cause sizable increases in domestic inflation. The passthrough in SSA is higher than in other regions and its magnitude depends on the exchange rate regime, type of exchange rate (bilateral versus NEER), natural resource endowment and domestic market competitiveness. The passthrough is found to be disproportionately larger and more persistent for large depreciation shocks, and for exchange rate changes that are more persistent. We also find evidence of asymmetry, with passthrough eight times stronger during depreciations than appreciations. Additional findings suggest that improved monetary policy effectiveness is an important driver of our observed declining estimates of exchange rate passthrough over time, supporting the long-standing view that strengthening monetary policy frameworks and credibility helps mitigate the impact of depreciations on inflation.
Book Synopsis An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-through in South Africa by : Ashok Bhundia
Download or read book An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-through in South Africa written by Ashok Bhundia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Commission of Inquiry into the Monetary System and Monetary Policy in South Africa Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :444 pages Book Rating :4.F/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis The Monetary System and Monetary Policy in South Africa by : Commission of Inquiry into the Monetary System and Monetary Policy in South Africa
Download or read book The Monetary System and Monetary Policy in South Africa written by Commission of Inquiry into the Monetary System and Monetary Policy in South Africa and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics in South Africa by : Eliphas Ndou
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in South Africa written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Palgrave Macmillan. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through by : Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow
Download or read book Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through written by Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-12-13 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A long-standing conjecture in macroeconomics is that recent declines in exchange rate pass-through are in part due to improved monetary policy performance. In a large sample of emerging and advanced economies, we find evidence of a strong link between exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices and the monetary policy regime’s performance in delivering price stability. Using input-output tables, we decompose exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices into a component that reflects the adjustment of imported goods at the border, and another that captures the response of all other prices. We find that price stability and central bank credibility have reduced the second component.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Download or read book Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-21 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
Book Synopsis The Exchange Rate Pass-through to Inflation and Its Implications for Monetary Policy in Cameroon and Kenya by : Dongue Ndongo Patrick Revelli
Download or read book The Exchange Rate Pass-through to Inflation and Its Implications for Monetary Policy in Cameroon and Kenya written by Dongue Ndongo Patrick Revelli and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations and the Credibility of Monetary Policy in South Africa by : G. Wesso
Download or read book Inflation Expectations and the Credibility of Monetary Policy in South Africa written by G. Wesso and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Book Synopsis Interest Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy Regimes in South Africa by : Meshach Jesse Aziakpono
Download or read book Interest Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy Regimes in South Africa written by Meshach Jesse Aziakpono and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
