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Modeling Individual Lodgepole Pine Mortality From Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak In A Spatially Explicit Framework
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Book Synopsis Modeling Individual Lodgepole Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak in a Spatially Explicit Framework by : Michele Susan Buonanduci
Download or read book Modeling Individual Lodgepole Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak in a Spatially Explicit Framework written by Michele Susan Buonanduci and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outbreaks of native bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) are key natural disturbances that shape the structure and function of conifer forests across the northern hemisphere. While drivers of bark beetle outbreaks have been studied extensively at spatial scales ranging from stands to continents, within-stand processes driving individual tree mortality in an outbreak are less well understood. Here we use a spatially explicit long-term monitoring dataset of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forest impacted by a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak to explore interactions among fine-scale drivers of beetle-caused tree mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian spatial modeling approach, we evaluated whether and how within-stand neighborhood structure and topographic setting interact with tree size to mediate tree level susceptibility to mountain pine beetle outbreak in the Southern Rocky Mountains (USA). We found evidence that both tree growth rate preceding the outbreak and stand structure around the host tree mediated the effect of tree size. However, we did not find evidence that topographic position within a stand mediated the effect of tree size. Mortality probability increased with pre-outbreak growth rate for small to medium sized trees (~10-25 centimeters diameter), but that same effect could not be detected for larger trees. Conversely, mortality probability increased with greater neighborhood density across tree sizes, with the most pronounced effects for medium to large sized trees (~15-30 centimeters diameter). Within-stand topographic variability was not an important predictor of mortality probability; among stands, however, the driest stand conditions experienced the greatest overall mortality. By explicitly considering how natural within-stand heterogeneity mediates individual tree level susceptibility to mountain pine beetle outbreak, our findings bridge an important gap in understanding multi-scale drivers of disturbance dynamics. Identifying factors influencing individual tree mortality in these systems informs our understanding of both the structural development of forest stands and reciprocal feedbacks between stand structure and outbreak dynamics.
Book Synopsis Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests by : Walter E. Cole
Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests written by Walter E. Cole and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Performance of Three Mountain Pine Beetle Damage Models Compared to Actual Outbreak Histories by : Dawn E. Cameron
Download or read book Performance of Three Mountain Pine Beetle Damage Models Compared to Actual Outbreak Histories written by Dawn E. Cameron and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Growth of Lodgepole Pine Stands and Its Relation to Mountain Pine Beetle Susceptibility by : S. A. Mata
Download or read book Growth of Lodgepole Pine Stands and Its Relation to Mountain Pine Beetle Susceptibility written by S. A. Mata and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Periodic diameter and basal area growth were determined for partially cut stands of lodgepole pine at five locations over approximately 10 year periods. After cutting, average diameters in the partially cut plots generally increased by 0.8 inches or more, while average diameter in the uncut controls increased by 0.6 inches or less. Diameter growth in the partially cut plots was generally significantly greater than diameter growth in the controls. Individual tree growth is discussed in relation to potential susceptibility to mountain pine beetle infestation. Basal area decreased in three of the four GSL (growing stock level) 40 stands because of windthrow. Basal area generally increased >1.0 ft 2 / acre/year in partially cut plots except in the GSL 40 stands with substantial windthrow and one GSL 100 with an Armillaria infection pocket. Basal area increases in the control plots ranged from 0.2 to 1.1 ft 2 /acre/year, although the one control with a BA growth rate of 1.1 ft 2 /acre/year had a relatively low initial BA. Data from the stands are employed in the susceptibility rating methods of Amman et al.(1977), Shore and Safranyik (1992),and Anhold et al. (1996 to determine stand susceptibility and the results discussed in terms of general applicability of these methods to partially cut stands. Basal area growth is used to estimate the length of time required for various stand densities to reach specific susceptibility thresholds for mountain pine beetle infestation. Several of the GSL 40 stands are not projected to reach the susceptibility thresholds in 100 years because of windthrow. Barring mortality 1%,GSL 80 stands are estimated to reach the basal area threshold of 120 ft 2 per acre in
Book Synopsis Estimating the Rate and Amount of Tree Loss from Mountain Pine Beetle Infestations by : Walter E. Cole
Download or read book Estimating the Rate and Amount of Tree Loss from Mountain Pine Beetle Infestations written by Walter E. Cole and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity, Cycle Period, and Invasion Speed by : Jacob P. Duncan
Download or read book A Spatiotemporal Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model Predicting Severity, Cycle Period, and Invasion Speed written by Jacob P. Duncan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae), a tree-killing bark beetle, has historically been part of the normal disturbance regime in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests. In recent years, warm winters and summers have allowed MPB populations to achieve synchronous emergence and successful attacks, resulting in widespread population outbreaks and resultant tree mortality across western North America. We develop an age-structured forest demographic model that incorporates temperature-dependent MPB infestations: the Susceptible-Infested-Juvenile (SIJ) model. Stability of fixed points is analyzed as a function of population growth rates, and indicates the existence of periodic outbreaks that intensify as growth rates increase. We devise analytical methods to predict outbreak severity and duration as well as outbreak return time. To assess the vulnerability of natural resources to climate change, we develop a thermally-driven mechanistic model to predict MPB population growth rates using a distributional model of beetle phenology in conjunction with criteria for successful tree colonization. The model uses projected daily minimum and maximum temperatures for the years 2025 to 2085 generated by three separate global climate models. Growth rates are calculated each year for an area defined by latitude range 42℗ʻ N to 49℗ʻ N and longitude range 108℗ʻ W to 117℗ʻ W on a Cartesian grid of approximately 4km resolution. Using these growth rates, we analyze how the optimal thermal window for beetle development is changing with respect to elevation as a result of climate change induced warming. We also use our combined model to evaluate if thermal regimes exist that would promote life cycle bivoltinism and discuss how yearly growth rates would change as a result. Outbreaks of MPB are largely driven by host tree stand demographics and spatial effects of beetle dispersal. We augment the SIJ model to account for the spatial effects of MPB dispersal throughout a forest landscape by coupling it with a Gaussian redistribution kernel. The new model generates a train of sustained solitary waves of infestation that move through a forest with constant speed. We convert the resulting integrodifference equation into a partial differential equation and search for travelling wave solutions. The resulting differential equation provides predictions of the shape of an outbreak wave profile and of peak infestation as functions of wave speed, which can be calculated analytically. These results culminate in the derivation of an explicit formula for predicting the severity of an outbreak based on the net reproductive rate of MPB and host searching efficiency.
Book Synopsis A Survey Procedure to Inventory Ponderosa and Lodgepole Pine Mortality Caused by the Mountain Pine Beetle by : William B. White
Download or read book A Survey Procedure to Inventory Ponderosa and Lodgepole Pine Mortality Caused by the Mountain Pine Beetle written by William B. White and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Probability of Infestation and Extent of Mortality Models for Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine Forests in Colorado by : José F. Negrón
Download or read book Probability of Infestation and Extent of Mortality Models for Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine Forests in Colorado written by José F. Negrón and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, is a significant agent of tree mortality in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) forests throughout western North America. A large outbreak of mountain pine beetle caused extensive tree mortality in north-central Colorado beginning in the late 1990s. We use data from a network of plots established in 2006-2007 on the Sulphur Ranger District of the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests to develop simple probability of infestation and extent of mortality models using classification and regression trees, respectively. A classification tree indicated that when live lodgepole pine basal area was equal to or greater than 59.3 ft2/acre pre-outbreak, the probability of infestation increased. A second classification tree added lodgepole pine mean diameter as a second splitting variable. The rate of correct classification for both models was greater than 0.79. Two regression trees also used live pre-outbreak lodgepole pine basal area as a splitting variable and indicated increasing basal area killed with increasing live lodgepole pine basal area. These simple models use readily available data from forest inventories and can be used to identify stands, based on forest stand conditions, where mountain pine beetle is more likely to occur and the potential extent of lodgepole pine tree mortality should an outbreak occur.
Book Synopsis Ponderosa Pine Mortality Resulting from a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak by : William F. McCambridge
Download or read book Ponderosa Pine Mortality Resulting from a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak written by William F. McCambridge and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From 1965 to 1978, mountain pine beetles killed 25% of the pines taller than 4.5 feet in a study area in north-central Colorado. Average basal area was reduced from 92 to 58 square feet per acre. Mortality increased with tree diameter up to about 9 inches d.b.h. Larger trees appeared to be killed at random. Mortality was directly related to number of trees per acre and presence of dwarf mistletoe, but not to site index, elevation, and percent Douglas-fir in the stand.
Book Synopsis Preliminary Risk Rating for Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation of Lodgepole Pine Forests Over Large Areas with Ordinal Regression Modelling by : Colin Robertson
Download or read book Preliminary Risk Rating for Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation of Lodgepole Pine Forests Over Large Areas with Ordinal Regression Modelling written by Colin Robertson and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In western Canada, the operational risk rating system for mountain pine beetle is based on biological knowledge gained from a rich legacy of stand-scale field studies. Owing to the large spatial and temporal extents of the current epidemic, new research into large-area mountain pine beetle processes has revealed further insights into the landscape-scale characteristics of beetle infested forests. This research evaluates the potential for this new knowledge to augment an established system for rating the short-term risk of tree mortality in a stand due to mountain pine beetle.--Publisher's website.
Book Synopsis Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests by : Walter E. Cole
Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests written by Walter E. Cole and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Interaction Between Mountain Pine Beetle and Dynamics of Lodgepole Pine Stands by : Walter E. Cole
Download or read book Interaction Between Mountain Pine Beetle and Dynamics of Lodgepole Pine Stands written by Walter E. Cole and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests by : Gene D. Amman
Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics in Lodgepole Pine Forests written by Gene D. Amman and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Mountain Pine Beetle-caused Tree Mortality in Partially Cut Plots Surrounded by Unmanaged Stands by : J. M. Schmid
Download or read book Mountain Pine Beetle-caused Tree Mortality in Partially Cut Plots Surrounded by Unmanaged Stands written by J. M. Schmid and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Localized Spatial and Temporal Attack Dynamics of the Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine by : Barbara J. Bentz
Download or read book Localized Spatial and Temporal Attack Dynamics of the Mountain Pine Beetle in Lodgepole Pine written by Barbara J. Bentz and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Validation of a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model for Lodgepole Pine in Central Oregon (Classic Reprint) by : Andrew J. R. Gillespie
Download or read book Validation of a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model for Lodgepole Pine in Central Oregon (Classic Reprint) written by Andrew J. R. Gillespie and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2018-01-09 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Validation of a Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Model for Lodgepole Pine in Central Oregon Within the data from each stratum, we recoded all recently kille with an unknown cause of mortality, changing them into live trees. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Book Synopsis Integrating Management Strategies for the Mountain Pine Beetle with Multiple-resource Management of Lodgepole Pine Forests by :
Download or read book Integrating Management Strategies for the Mountain Pine Beetle with Multiple-resource Management of Lodgepole Pine Forests written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
