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Mitigating Choice Model Ambiguity
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Book Synopsis Mitigating Choice Model Ambiguity by : Öykü Naz Attila
Download or read book Mitigating Choice Model Ambiguity written by Öykü Naz Attila and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In several application domains, discrete choice models have become a popular tool to accurately predict complex choice behavior within the classical predict-then-optimize paradigm. Due to a variety of possible error sources, however, estimated choice models may be subject to ambiguity, which may induce different optimal decisions of highly varying quality. While previous studies focused on reducing the uncertainty within a nominal choice model, this study approaches the issue of ambiguity from a different angle by directly mitigating choice model ambiguity associated with a given set of predictive models in terms of their ability to yield optimal decisions. To this end, we propose a framework and a set of performance metrics that aim at gauging the reliability of choice models and their induced decisions, therefore enabling the decision-maker to identify choice models that are likely to produce high quality decisions.
Book Synopsis A Smooth Model of Decision Making Under Ambiguity by : Peter Klibanoff
Download or read book A Smooth Model of Decision Making Under Ambiguity written by Peter Klibanoff and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Valuing Climate Change Mitigation by : Sonia Akter
Download or read book Valuing Climate Change Mitigation written by Sonia Akter and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This enriching book presents a holistic overview of climate change uncertainty and offers a number of pathways that could be used to account for such uncertainties in the stated preference valuation research. It shows that uncertainty plays an important role in determining the values of climate change mitigation benefits and, as the authors say, 'If this uncertainty remains unaccounted for, there is a potential danger that the estimated economic values will misrepresent social preferences for public policy interventions to manage environmental externalities.' Valuing Climate Change Mitigation discusses the role of uncertainty in valuing the benefits of climate change mitigation policies using contingent valuation and choice experiments techniques. It treats climate change using three dimensions of uncertainty: scenario, policy and preference. Conceptual frameworks are advanced to account simultaneously for these various dimensions of uncertainty. The authors then explore the impact of introducing these uncertainties into benefit estimates for the Australian Carbon Pollutions Reduction Scheme. The authors present frameworks to account for multiple uncertainty in environmental decision analysis that will prove invaluable for academics and students in the fields of environmental economics and management. Policy makers will also gain invaluable methodological insight.
Book Synopsis DESCRIPTIVE MODELS OF CHOICE UNDER AMBIGUITY (DECISION MAKING, JUDGMENT, CONJOINT MEASUREMENT). by : SHAWN PATRICK CURLEY
Download or read book DESCRIPTIVE MODELS OF CHOICE UNDER AMBIGUITY (DECISION MAKING, JUDGMENT, CONJOINT MEASUREMENT). written by SHAWN PATRICK CURLEY and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The implications of these results for the descriptive modeling of choice under ambiguity, and directions for future research, are discussed.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Ambiguity by : Hillel J. Einhorn
Download or read book Decision Making Under Ambiguity written by Hillel J. Einhorn and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ellsberg's paradox demonstrates that ambiguous or vague probabilities derived from choices between gambles are not coherent. A descriptive model of judgement under ambiguity is developed in which an initial estimate serves as a starting point and adjustments are made for abbiguity. The adjustments involve a mental simulation in which higher and lower probabilities are considered and differentially weighted. Implications of this model include ambiguity avoidance and seeking; sub- and superadditivity of complementary probabilities; dynamic ambiguity; and reversals in the meaning of data. Three experiments involving Ellsberg's paradox and the setting of buying and selling prices for insurance and warranties test the model. A choice rule under ambiguity is developed that implies a lack of independence between ambiguous probabilities and the sign of payoff utility. The applicability of the model to the case where probabilities are explicitly stated is considered, including the handling of context effects. Keywords: Ambiguity, Decision making, Insurance.
Book Synopsis Remanufacturing and Consumers' Risky Choices by : James D. Abbey
Download or read book Remanufacturing and Consumers' Risky Choices written by James D. Abbey and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Willingness to pay (WTP) is known to be lower for remanufactured products than for comparable new products. Normative work to date has assumed that a consumer's WTP for a remanufactured product is a fraction, called discount factor, of the consumer's WTP for a corresponding new product, and that this discount factor is constant across consumers. Recent empirical research demonstrates, however, that the discount factor is not constant across consumers. This discovery has led researchers to call for an exploration of more refined utility models that incorporate heterogeneous risk preferences through elements such as risk aversion, loss aversion, and ambiguity aversion. To address this call, this manuscript assesses each of these risk preference elements by empirically deriving WTP distributions from two interlinked studies. To provide triangulation in both the empirical method and sample, the interlinked studies employ an online survey and a laboratory experiment that elicits WTP for framed lotteries that proxy the situation of buying remanufactured products. The empirical results and robustness verifications demonstrate that a parsimonious standard utility model incorporating only risk aversion explains the WTP data reasonably well.
Book Synopsis Ambiguity, precision and choice : a fuzzy trace theory analysis of framing effects in decision making under uncertainty (PHD). by : John Vincent Fulginiti
Download or read book Ambiguity, precision and choice : a fuzzy trace theory analysis of framing effects in decision making under uncertainty (PHD). written by John Vincent Fulginiti and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems by : Yuri Ermoliev
Download or read book Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems written by Yuri Ermoliev and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-31 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing safety of diverse systems requires decision-making under uncertainties and risks. Such systems are typically characterized by spatio-temporal heterogeneities, inter-dependencies, externalities, endogenous risks, discontinuities, irreversibility, practically irreducible uncertainties, and rare events with catastrophic consequences. Traditional scientific approaches rely on data from real observations and experiments; yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and experiments are usually impossible. Therefore, science-based support for addressing such new class of problems needs to replace the traditional “deterministic predictions” analysis by new methods and tools for designing decisions that are robust against the involved uncertainties and risks. The new methods treat uncertainties explicitly by using “synthetic” information derived by integration of “hard” elements, including available data, results of possible experiments, and formal representations of scientific facts, with “soft” elements based on diverse representations of scenarios and opinions of public, stakeholders, and experts. The volume presents such effective new methods, and illustrates their applications in different problem areas, including engineering, economy, finance, agriculture, environment, and policy making.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Choice Under Ambiguity by : Marciano Siniscalchi
Download or read book Dynamic Choice Under Ambiguity written by Marciano Siniscalchi and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes sophisticated dynamic choice for ambiguity-sensitive decision makers. It characterizes Consistent Planning via axioms on preferences over decision trees. Furthermore, it shows how to elicit conditional preferences from prior preferences. The key axiom is a weakening of Dynamic Consistency, deemed Sophistication. The analysis accommodates arbitrary decision models and updating rules. Hence, the results indicate that (i) ambiguity attitudes, (ii) updating rules, and (iii) sophisticated dynamic choice are mutually orthogonal aspects of preferences. As an example, a characterization of prior-by-prior Bayesian updating and Consistent Planning for arbitrary maxmin-expected utility preferences is presented. The resulting sophisticated MEU preferences are then used to analyze the value of information under ambiguity; a basic trade-off between information acquisition and commitment is highlighted.
Book Synopsis A Smooth Model of Decision Making Under Ambiguity by : Peter Klibanoff
Download or read book A Smooth Model of Decision Making Under Ambiguity written by Peter Klibanoff and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dynamic Decision Making Under Ambiguity by : Konstantinos Georgalos
Download or read book Dynamic Decision Making Under Ambiguity written by Konstantinos Georgalos and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change by : Ottmar Edenhofer
Download or read book Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change written by Ottmar Edenhofer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-01-26 with total page 1457 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC will again form the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences.
Book Synopsis The Future of Risk Management by : Howard Kunreuther
Download or read book The Future of Risk Management written by Howard Kunreuther and published by University of Pennsylvania Press. This book was released on 2019-06-28 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required. When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts' estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes. The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events. Contributors: Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Västfjäll, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.
Book Synopsis Improving Disaster Resilience and Mitigation - IT Means and Tools by : Horia-Nicolai Teodorescu
Download or read book Improving Disaster Resilience and Mitigation - IT Means and Tools written by Horia-Nicolai Teodorescu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-08 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of this volume is comprised of the fundamentals, models, and information technologies (IT) methods and tools for disaster prediction and mitigation. A more detailed list of topics includes mathematical and computational modeling of processes leading to or producing disasters, modeling of disaster effects, IT means for disaster mitigation, including data mining tools, knowledge-based and expert systems for use in disaster circumstances, GIS-based systems for disaster prevention and mitigation and equipment for disaster-prone areas. A specific type or class of disasters (natural or human-made), however will not be part of the main focus of this work. Instead, this book was conceived to offer a comprehensive, integrative view on disasters, seeking to determine what various disasters have in common. Because disaster resilience and mitigation involve humans, societies and cultures, not only technologies and economic models, special attention was paid in this volume to gain a comprehensive view on these issues, as a foundation of the IT tool design.
Book Synopsis Flexibility of Choice Versus Reduction of Ambiguity by : Ani Guerdjikova
Download or read book Flexibility of Choice Versus Reduction of Ambiguity written by Ani Guerdjikova and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the problem of a social planner willing to improve the welfare of individuals who are unable to compare all available alternatives. The optimal decision trades off the individuals' desire for flexibility versus their aversion towards ambiguous choice situations. We introduce an axiom system that formalizes this idea. Our main result characterizes the preference maximizing opportunity set. It is a maximal set that consists of mutually comparable alternatives. It also has the property that it maximizes the sum of the distances between its ordered elements for some appropriate metric imposed on the set of possible choices.
Author :Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group III. Publisher :Cambridge University Press ISBN 13 :9780521015028 Total Pages :724 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (15 download)
Book Synopsis Climate Change 2001: Mitigation by : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group III.
Download or read book Climate Change 2001: Mitigation written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group III. and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-07-12 with total page 724 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IPCC assessment of the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of the mitigation of climate change.
Book Synopsis Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by : Mohammed Abdellaoui
Download or read book Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-29 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
