Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Download Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Author : Anthony Garratt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 19 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (555 download)
Download or read book Measuring output gap uncertainty written by Anthony Garratt and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Francesco Grigoli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498375855
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-23 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Author : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513512544
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Author : Eugen Tereanu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498305164
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty written by Eugen Tereanu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-13 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 11⁄2 percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.
Author : Jamie P. Murray
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (897 download)
Download or read book Output Gap Measurement written by Jamie P. Murray and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ali Alichi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513523465
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Author : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151352786X
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455210927
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
Author : Anthony Garratt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (839 download)
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty written by Anthony Garratt and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Iris Claus
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 72 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book The Output Gap written by Iris Claus and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jens Forssbaeck
Publisher : Oxford Handbooks
ISBN 13 : 0199917698
Total Pages : 619 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (999 download)
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic and Institutional Transparency written by Jens Forssbaeck and published by Oxford Handbooks. This book was released on 2014 with total page 619 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Transparency' has become both a catch-word in public debate and also an important research topic. Comprised of authoritative yet accessible contributions, this handbook surveys existing economic research on transparency and provides an up-to-date account of its meaning and significance in economic policy, market integration and regulation, and corporate governance and disclosure.
Author : Andreas Billmeier
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Measuring a Roller Coaster written by Andreas Billmeier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-04 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation. Only two gap measures, stemming from a frequency domain approach and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition, perform better than the naïve prediction of no change in inflation-but do not improve upon a simple autoregressive forecast. The pronounced volatility of output in Finland makes it particularly difficult to estimate potential output, producing considerable uncertainty about the size (and sign) of the gap.
Author : Mr.Niels-Jakob H Hansen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513508342
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea written by Mr.Niels-Jakob H Hansen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-08-02 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are widely used to inform macroeconomic policy decisions, including in Korea. The main determinant of these estimates is the measure of labor market slack. The traditional measure of unemployment in Korea yields an incomplete estimate of labor market slack, given that many workers prefer involuntary part-time jobs or leaving the labor force rather than registering as unemployed. This paper discusses a way in which the measure of unemployment can be broadened to yield a more accurate measure of labor market slack. This broader measure is then used to estimate the output gap using a multivariate filter, yielding a more meaningful measure of the output gap.
Author : Mr.Alvar Kangur
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513515616
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? written by Mr.Alvar Kangur and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Author : Pierre St.-Amant
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780662260196
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (61 download)
Download or read book Measurement of the Output Gap written by Pierre St.-Amant and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
Author : Romain Bouis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 85 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (81 download)
Download or read book Implications of Output Gap Uncertainty in Times of Crisis written by Romain Bouis and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Joshua C. C. Chan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Measuring the Output Gap Using Stochastic Model Specification Search written by Joshua C. C. Chan and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is well known that different specification choices can give starkly different output gap estimates. To account for model uncertainty, we average estimates over a wide variety of popular specifications using stochastic model specification search. In particular, we consider three types of specification choices: sets of variables used in the analysis, output trend specifications and distributional assumptions. Using US data, we find that the unemployment gap is useful in estimating the output gap, but conditional on the unemployment gap, the inflation gap no longer depends on the output gap. Our results show a steady decline in trend output growth throughout the sample, and the estimate at the end of our sample is only about 1%. Moreover, data favor t over Gaussian distributed innovations, suggesting the relatively frequent occurrence of extreme events.
