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Author : Albert J. Eckstein
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output for the U.S. Economy in a Model Framework written by Albert J. Eckstein and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Edward Fulton Denison
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Changes in the Concept and Measurement of Potential Output in the United States of America written by Edward Fulton Denison and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151352786X
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? written by Mr.Jiaqian Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Author : Amy Guisinger
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Comparing Measures of Potential Output written by Amy Guisinger and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the goals of stabilization policy is to reduce the output gap—the difference between potential and actual output—during downturns. Potential output, however, is an unobserved variable whose definition can vary. For example, some view potential output as the level of output that can be produced when employment is at the natural rate. Others use trend measures of output to measure potential. We survey some of these measures using both full-sample data (all of the data that would be available through June 2017) and real-time data (the actual data that would have been available at different points in the sample). We construct six different measures of potential: a linear trend, a quadratic trend, the Congressional Budget Office measure, and three filtered trends. We compare these measures across methods and across time. We also use the measures to compute the monetary policy prescription in a standard interest rate rule and find very little difference across methods.
Author : Mr.Fabio Scacciavillani
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451851898
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Measures of Potential Output written by Mr.Fabio Scacciavillani and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift toward a slower growth path after the dramatic developments associated with the years of heavy immigration. Israel poses a challenge because traditional methods of measuring potential output assume relatively stable conditions over an extended period of time. We employ five methodologies to derive estimates and find that four of the measures imply the slowdown stems largely from reduced growth of potential output rather than a cyclical slowdown.
Author : Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap written by Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455210927
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)
Download or read book Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
Author : Cécile Denis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps written by Cécile Denis and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Any meaningful analysis of cyclical developments, of medium term growth prospects or of the stance of fiscal and monetary policies are all predicated on either an implicit or explicit assumption concerning the rate of potential output growth. Given the importance of the concept, the measurement of potential output is the subject of contentious and sustained research interest. All the available methods have "pros" and "cons" and none can unequivocally be declared better than the alternatives in all cases. Thus, what matters is to have a method adapted to the problem under analysis, with well defined limits and, in international comparisons, one that deals identically with all countries. This is the approach adopted in the present paper where it is stated clearly that the objective is to produce an economics based, production function, method which can be used for operational EU policy surveillance purposes.
Author : Sebastian Hauptmeier
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3790821772
Total Pages : 201 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (98 download)
Download or read book Projecting Potential Output written by Sebastian Hauptmeier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-20 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Author : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513555839
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-06 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.
Author : Kieran McMorrow
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 148 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Potential Output written by Kieran McMorrow and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: Introductory remarks - Section 1: Measurement of potential output: Statistical V economic approaches - Section 2: Potential output and output gap estimates for EU15 and US: HP filter production function approaches - Section 3: "New" Economy effects on potential growth: Comparison of US and EU15 performances - Secction 4: EU15 and US potential growth scnarios for the period 2001-2010 - Annexes.
Author : Ali Alichi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513507567
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Author : Mr.Helge Berger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513503278
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Steady as She Goes—Estimating Potential Output During Financial “Booms and Busts” written by Mr.Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-09 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Potential output—in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term—is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial “booms and busts” are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach to illustrate the role financial variables play in driving potential or sustainable output. The results suggest that it moves more steadily during financial “boom and bust” periods than implied by conventional HP filter estimates, which tend to more closely follow actual GDP. A two-region, multisector New Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions sheds light on the economic forces that could be behind the results obtained from the filter. This has important implications for policymakers.
Author : Patrick Blagrave
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475565135
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Author : Pierre St.-Amant
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780662260196
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (61 download)
Download or read book Measurement of the Output Gap written by Pierre St.-Amant and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
Author : Ali Alichi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484366328
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Author : Janice Eberly
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
ISBN 13 : 0815737106
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (157 download)
Download or read book Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2018 written by Janice Eberly and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2019-08-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents: The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years, Philipp Hartmann and Frank Smets Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia, Emmanuel Farhi and François Gourio The Real Effects of Disrupted Credit: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis, Ben S. Bernanke The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Mauricio Ulate Should the Federal Reserve Regularly Evaluate Its Monetary Policy Framework?, Jeff Fuhrer, Giovanni P. Olivei, Eric S. Rosengren, and Geoffrey M.B. Tootell Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound: Less Potent? More International? More Sticky?, Kristin Forbes The Efficacy of Large-Scale Asset Purchases When the Short-Term Interest Rate Is at Its Effective Lower Bound, James D. Hamilton The Federal Reserve Is Not Very Constrained by the Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates, Eric T. Swanson Comments on Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound, Janet Yellen
