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Mean Shifts Unit Roots And Forecasting Seasonal Time Series
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Book Synopsis Mean Shifts, Unit Roots and Forecasting Seasonal Time Series by : Richard Paap
Download or read book Mean Shifts, Unit Roots and Forecasting Seasonal Time Series written by Richard Paap and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changing seasonal patterns in economic time series can be described by auregressive models with seasonal unit roots or with deterministic sesaonal mean shifts.By means of simulation we demonstrate the impact of imposing the incorrect model on forecasting. We find for both cases that an inappropriate decision can deteriorate forecasting performance dramatically.
Book Synopsis Mean Shifts, Unit Roots and Forecasting Seasonal Time Series by : Richard Paap
Download or read book Mean Shifts, Unit Roots and Forecasting Seasonal Time Series written by Richard Paap and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Book Synopsis The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series by : Eric Ghysels
Download or read book The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series written by Eric Ghysels and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-06-18 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eric Ghysels and Denise R. Osborn provide a thorough and timely review of the recent developments in the econometric analysis of seasonal economic time series, summarizing a decade of theoretical advances in the area. The authors discuss the asymptotic distribution theory for linear nonstationary seasonal stochastic processes. They also cover the latest contributions to the theory and practice of seasonal adjustment, together with its implications for estimation and hypothesis testing. Moreover, a comprehensive analysis of periodic models is provided, including stationary and nonstationary cases. The book concludes with a discussion of some nonlinear seasonal and periodic models. The treatment is designed for an audience of researchers and advanced graduate students.
Book Synopsis Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting by : Philip Hans Franses
Download or read book Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting written by Philip Hans Franses and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
Book Synopsis A Companion to Economic Forecasting by : Michael P. Clements
Download or read book A Companion to Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.
Book Synopsis Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting by :
Download or read book Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting written by and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Econometric Forecasting and High-frequency Data Analysis by : Roberto S. Mariano
Download or read book Econometric Forecasting and High-frequency Data Analysis written by Roberto S. Mariano and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important book consists of surveys of high-frequency financial data analysis and econometric forecasting, written by pioneers in these areas including Nobel laureate Lawrence Klein. Some of the chapters were presented as tutorials to an audience in the Econometric Forecasting and High-Frequency Data Analysis Workshop at the Institute for Mathematical Science, National University of Singapore in May 2006. They will be of interest to researchers working in macroeconometrics as well as financial econometrics. Moreover, readers will find these chapters useful as a guide to the literature as well as suggestions for future research. Sample Chapter(s). Foreword (32 KB). Chapter 1: Forecast Uncertainty, Its Representation and Evaluation* (97 KB). Contents: Forecasting Uncertainty, Its Representation and Evaluation (K F Wallis); The University of Pennsylvania Models for High-Frequency Macroeconomic Modeling (L R Klein & S Ozmucur); Forecasting Seasonal Time Series (P H Franses); Car and Affine Processes (C Gourieroux); Multivariate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting (M Deistler). Readership: Professionals and researchers in econometric forecasting and financial data analysis.
Book Synopsis Almost All About Unit Roots by : In Choi
Download or read book Almost All About Unit Roots written by In Choi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-05-12 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many economic theories depend on the presence or absence of a unit root for their validity, making familiarity with unit roots extremely important to econometric and statistical theory. This book introduces the literature on unit roots in a comprehensive manner to empirical and theoretical researchers in economics and other areas.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics by : Aman Ullah
Download or read book Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics written by Aman Ullah and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1998-02-03 with total page 646 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work examines theoretical issues, as well as practical developments in statistical inference related to econometric models and analysis. This work offers discussions on such areas as the function of statistics in aggregation, income inequality, poverty, health, spatial econometrics, panel and survey data, bootstrapping and time series.
Book Synopsis An Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by : Robert Alan Yaffee
Download or read book An Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting written by Robert Alan Yaffee and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2000-05-12 with total page 555 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing a clear explanation of the fundamental theory of time series analysis and forecasting, this book couples theory with applications of two popular statistical packages--SAS and SPSS. The text examines moving average, exponential smoothing, Census X-11 deseasonalization, ARIMA, intervention, transfer function, and autoregressive error models and has brief discussions of ARCH and GARCH models. The book features treatments of forecast improvement with regression and autoregression combination models and model and forecast evaluation, along with a sample size analysis for common time series models to attain adequate statistical power. The careful linkage of the theoretical constructs with the practical considerations involved in utilizing the statistical packages makes it easy for the user to properly apply these techniques. Describes principal approaches to time series analysis and forecasting Presents examples from public opinion research, policy analysis, political science, economics, and sociology Math level pitched to general social science usage Glossary makes the material accessible for readers at all levels
Book Synopsis Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series by : Michael P. Clements
Download or read book Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series written by Michael P. Clements and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text on economic forecasting asks why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to forecasting, it looks at the implications for causal modelling, presents forecast errors and delineates sources of failure.
Book Synopsis Periodic Time Series Models by : Philip Hans Franses
Download or read book Periodic Time Series Models written by Philip Hans Franses and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2004-03-25 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book considers periodic time series models for seasonal data, characterized by parameters that differ across the seasons, and focuses on their usefulness for out-of-sample forecasting. Providing an up-to-date survey of the recent developments in periodic time series, the book presents a large number of empirical results. The first part of the book deals with model selection, diagnostic checking and forecasting of univariate periodic autoregressive models. Tests for periodic integration, are discussed, and an extensive discussion of the role of deterministic regressors in testing for periodic integration and in forecasting is provided. The second part discusses multivariate periodic autoregressive models. It provides an overview of periodic cointegration models, as these are the most relevant. This overview contains single-equation type tests and a full-system approach based on generalized method of moments. All methods are illustrated with extensive examples, and the book will be of interest to advanced graduate students and researchers in econometrics, as well as practitioners looking for an understanding of how to approach seasonal data.
Download or read book Journal of Econometrics written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 868 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting by : Peter J. Brockwell
Download or read book Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting written by Peter J. Brockwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by : Douglas C. Montgomery
Download or read book Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting written by Douglas C. Montgomery and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-04-21 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the First Edition "...[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.
Download or read book Tourism Economics written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
