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Market Reforms And Public Debt Dynamics In Emerging Market And Developing Economies
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Book Synopsis Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies by : Mr. Zamid Aligishiev
Download or read book Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies written by Mr. Zamid Aligishiev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-09-12 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many emerging market and developing economies face a difficult trade-off between economic support and fiscal sustainability. Market-oriented structural reforms ease this trade-off by promoting economic growth and strengthening public finances. The empirical analysis in this note, based on 62 EMDEs over 1973-2014, shows that reforms are associated with sizeable and long-lasting reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio mainly through higher fiscal revenues and lower borrowing costs. These effects are larger in countries with greater tax efficiency, lower informality, and higher initial debt. Moreover, a model-based analysis elaborates on how such fiscal gains can be enhanced when revenue windfalls associated with reforms are saved or channeled through higher public investment.
Book Synopsis Public Debt in Developing Countries by : Indermit Singh Gill
Download or read book Public Debt in Developing Countries written by Indermit Singh Gill and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Over the past 25 years, significant levels of public debt and external finance are more likely to have enhanced macroeconomic vulnerability than economic growth in developing countries. This applies not just to countries with a history of high inflation and past default, but also to those in East Asia, with a long tradition of prudent macroeconomic policies and rapid growth. The authors examine why with the help of a conceptual framework drawn from the growth, capital flows, and crisis literature for developing countries with access to the international capital markets (market access countries or MACs). They find that, while the chances of another generalized debt crisis have receded since the turbulence of the late 1990s, sovereign debt is indeed constraining growth in MACs, especially those with debt sustainability problems ... " -- Cover verso.
Book Synopsis Debt Dynamics in Emerging and Developing Economies: Is R-G a Red Herring? by : Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
Download or read book Debt Dynamics in Emerging and Developing Economies: Is R-G a Red Herring? written by Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2021-09-07 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, debt levels in emerging and developing economies have surged raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. Historically, negative interest-growth differentials in these countries have played a debt-stabilizing role. But is this enough to prevent countries from falling into debt distress? Drawing from a sample of 150 emerging and developing economies going back to the 1970s, we find that interest-growth differentials have remained relatively low, dampening debt increases in the run up to a crisis. But in the face of persistent primary deficits, debt service tends to rise abruptly—particularly in emerging markets—and a fiscal crisis ensues. There is also evidence that a large part of the debt build-up around crises stems from valuation effects associated with external debt and the materialization of contingent liabilities. These findings underscore that, though not necessarily a red-herring, low interest-growth differentials cannot fully offset the deleterious effects of large fiscal deficits, forex exposures, or hidden debts.
Book Synopsis Public Debt, Global Governance and Economic Dynamism by : Luigi Paganetto
Download or read book Public Debt, Global Governance and Economic Dynamism written by Luigi Paganetto and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents a selection of contributions to the XXIV Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar on “Public debt, global governance and economic dynamism”. For the past 23 years, the Seminar has provided an ideal opportunity to meet and discuss the most topical issues in economic research. The quality of the scientific contributions and ensuing debates has consistently been outstanding owing to the participation of leading experts, and the most recent Seminar was no exception. The Seminar was held against the backdrop of high levels of public debt, especially in Europe, combined with very low growth in productivity. Furthermore, markets have been dominated by financial instability, raising the question of whether this is the result of the high debt levels or insufficient economic dynamism. Among the topics covered in this book are the economic challenges and growth policies in the United States; issues relating to the G20, global governance and regional integration; EU governance, growth and the Eurozone crisis; and EMU policy and public debt. Individual contributions also address the impact of labor market reforms, the need for sectoral rebalancing in the Euro area, fiscal multipliers and public debt dynamics, and the effects of fiscal shocks in Italy. The book concludes with a contribution on policy recommendations.
Book Synopsis Structural Reforms and Productivity Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies by : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Download or read book Structural Reforms and Productivity Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-09 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically assesses the role of structural and institutional reforms in driving productivity growth across countries at different stages of development, using a distance-to-frontier framework. It gauges whether particular policies and reforms matter more for increasing productivity growth at the aggregate and sectoral levels for some emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) than others. Recognizing the possibility of time lags between reform implementation and reform payoffs, the paper also examines how productivity gains from various reforms evolve over the the short- and medium-term.
Book Synopsis Private and Public Debt by : Marco Bernardini
Download or read book Private and Public Debt written by Marco Bernardini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-22 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a dataset covering a large sample of emerging economies (EMEs), we study the relationship between debt and economic performance in bad times. While previous research has shown that private debt buildups exacerbate the duration and intensity of recessions in advanced economies (AEs), we document that this effect is very pronounced in EMEs as well. Moreover, although rapid public debt buildups are unlikely to be the primary trigger of financial crises, in EMEs they are associated with deeper and longer recessions than in AEs. Part of this difference is explained by a less supportive fiscal policy in EMEs during crises.
Book Synopsis Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies by : Bada Han
Download or read book Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies written by Bada Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-02-16 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
Book Synopsis Global Monetary Tightening by : Mr.Julio Escolano
Download or read book Global Monetary Tightening written by Mr.Julio Escolano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper finds that tightening global financial conditions can worsen emerging economies’ public debt dynamics through an increasing interest rate-growth differential, particularly if coupled with high global risk aversion. Latin America and emerging Europe are the regions most likely to be adversely affected. In addition, historical evidence—analyzed by means of a Poisson count model—suggests that the frequency of sovereign debt crises increases in emerging economies at the early stage of U.S. monetary tightening cycles, at times in which the term spread also rises. The timing may be related to abrupt switches of expectations about the future course of policy in the early stages of tightening cycles.
Book Synopsis Local Currency Bond Markets Law Reform: A Methodology for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by : Wouter Bossu
Download or read book Local Currency Bond Markets Law Reform: A Methodology for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Wouter Bossu and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-11-20 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent financial crises including the ongoing one caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently drawn attention to the need to strengthen the quality of public debt management in emerging markets and developing countries. Deeper and more efficient domestic government debt markets—being, a key segment of the LCBM for many emerging markets and developing economies—play a key role in reducing financial vulnerability to shocks and enable governments to finance critical economic and fiscal policy measures in response to them. Policymakers and international organizations have long recognized that developing and strengthening LCBMs is a key policy prescription to sound public debt management. Robust legal and regulatory frameworks are recognized as being critical building blocks for the structure, development and functioning of LCBMs. This Working Paper seeks to outline a strategically anchored methodology that can be applied to design, build and implement the legal and tax foundations for the development of LCBMs that would adequately address common challenges and impediments.
Book Synopsis Debt Limits and the Structure of Public Debt by : Alex Pienkowski
Download or read book Debt Limits and the Structure of Public Debt written by Alex Pienkowski and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-22 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a tractable framework to assess how the structure of debt instruments—specifically by currency denomination and indexation to GDP—can raise the debt limit of a sovereign. By calibrating the model to different country fundamentals, it is clear that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to optimal instrument design. For instance, low income countries may find benefit in issuing local currency debt; while in advanced economies debt tolerance can be substantially enhanced through issuing GDP-linked bonds. By looking at the marginal impact of these instruments, the paper also provides insight into the optimal portfolio compostion.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Guidelines for Public Debt Management -- Amended by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Guidelines for Public Debt Management -- Amended written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-12 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Book Synopsis The Level and Composition of Public Sector Debt in Emerging Market Crises by : Monica Baumgarten de Bolle
Download or read book The Level and Composition of Public Sector Debt in Emerging Market Crises written by Monica Baumgarten de Bolle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-08 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper examines the evolution of public sector debt levels and structures in 12 emerging market countries around the time of financial crises. In particular, it focuses on whether the debt situation of sovereign borrowers became more vulnerable in the aftermath of crises. The principal findings are that (i) debt levels tend to increase significantly post-crisis, and (ii) countries often experience more rigid debt structures following such events, with an increase in the share of external public debt to multilateral creditors and a greater exposure of the domestic banking system to sovereign debt.
Book Synopsis Public Debt and Growth by : Jaejoon Woo
Download or read book Public Debt and Growth written by Jaejoon Woo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
Book Synopsis Public Debt and Growth by : Jaejoon Woo
Download or read book Public Debt and Growth written by Jaejoon Woo and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
Book Synopsis Primary Surpluses and Sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries by : Abdul Abiad
Download or read book Primary Surpluses and Sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries written by Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-10 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to put some constraints on the way primary surpluses are projected when making assessments of public debt sustainability. Projections should be tied either to the country's historical track record in generating surpluses-if the institutional and other factors accounting for this track record are expected to persist-or to some model that links primary surpluses to their fundamental determinants, either on the basis of constant institutions and policies or a credible reform program. History-based or model-based primary surplus projections provide a useful benchmark for judging the realism of fiscal forecasts underlying debt sustainability calculations. Together with information on future growth and interest rates, the primary surplus projections can be used to generate measures of overborrowing, and the magnitude of adjustment needed to return debt to a sustainable level.
Download or read book India Rising written by Gaobo Pang and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past 25 years, India's economy grew at an average real rate of close to 6 percent, with growth rates in recent years accelerating to 9 percent. Yet by 2005-06, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio was 34 percentage points higher than in the 1980s. The authors examine the links between public finances and growth in the post-1991 period. They argue that the main factor in the deterioration of government debt dynamics after the mid-1990s was a reform-induced loss in trade, customs, and financial repression taxes. Over time, these very factors plus lower entry barriers have contributed to stronger microfoundations for growth by increasing competition and hardening budget constraints for firms and financial sector institutions. The authors suggest that the impressive growth acceleration of the past few years, which is now lowering government indebtedness, can be attributed to the lagged effects of these factors, which have taken time to attain a critical mass in view of India's gradual reforms. Similarly, the worsening of public finances during the late 1990s can be attributed to the cumulative effects of tax losses, the negative growth effects of cuts in capital expenditure that were made to offset the tax losses, and a pullback in private investment (hence, growth and taxes), a situation which is now turning around. Insufficient capital expenditures have contributed to the infrastructure gap, which is seen as a constraint especially for rapid growth in manufacturing. The authors discuss ongoing reforms in revenue mobilization and fiscal adjustment at the state level, which if successfully implemented, will result in a better alignment of public finances with growth by generating further fiscal space for infrastructure and other development spending.
