Market Expectations And Option Prices

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Market Expectations and Option Prices

Author : Martin Mandler
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642574289
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (425 download)

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Book Synopsis Market Expectations and Option Prices by : Martin Mandler

Download or read book Market Expectations and Option Prices written by Martin Mandler and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a slightly revised version of my doctoral dissertation which has been accepted by the Department of Economics and Business Administration of the Justus-Liebig-Universitat Giessen in July 2002. I am indebted to my advisor Prof. Dr. Volbert Alexander for encouraging and supporting my research. I am also grateful to the second member of the doctoral committee, Prof. Dr. Horst Rinne. Special thanks go to Dr. Ralf Ahrens for providing part of the data and to my colleague Carsten Lang, who spent much time reading the complete first draft. Wetzlar, January 2003 Martin Mandler Contents 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Part I Theoretical Foundations 2 Arbitrage Pricing and Risk-Neutral Probabilities........ .. 7 2.1 Arbitrage Pricing in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model... . . .. . 7 2.2 The Equivalent Martingale Measure and Risk-Neutral Valuation ............................................... 11 2.3 Extracting Risk-Neutral Probabilities from Option Prices. . . .. 13 2.4 Summary............................................... 15 Appendix 2A: The Valuation Function in the Black/Scholes-Merton Model .................................................. 16 Appendix 2B: Some Further Details on the Replication Strategy ... 21 3 Survey of the Related Literature .......................... 23 3.1 The Information Content of Forward and Futures Prices. . . .. . 24 3.2 The Information Content of Implied Volatilities ............. 25 3.2.1 Implied Volatilities and the Risk-Neutral Probability Density .......................................... 27 3.2.2 The Term Structure of Implied Volatilities. . . . . . . .. . . 29 . 3.2.3 The Forecasting Information in Implied Volatilities. . .. 30 3.2.4 Implied Correlations as Forecasts of Future Correlations 43 VIII Contents 3.3 The Skewness Premium ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 45 . . . . . . .

Smiles, Skews, Implied Distributions and Market Expectations from Option Prices

Author : Aidan Allen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781863429955
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (299 download)

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Book Synopsis Smiles, Skews, Implied Distributions and Market Expectations from Option Prices by : Aidan Allen

Download or read book Smiles, Skews, Implied Distributions and Market Expectations from Option Prices written by Aidan Allen and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Options Markets

Author : John C. Cox
Publisher : Prentice Hall
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 518 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Options Markets by : John C. Cox

Download or read book Options Markets written by John C. Cox and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1985 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes the first published detailed description of option exchange operations, the first published treatment using only elementary mathematics and the first step-by-step procedure for implementing the Black-Scholes formula in actual trading.

Deriving Market Expectations for the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate from Option Prices

Author : Noureddine Krichene
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Deriving Market Expectations for the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate from Option Prices by : Noureddine Krichene

Download or read book Deriving Market Expectations for the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate from Option Prices written by Noureddine Krichene and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Option prices provide valuable information on market expectations. This paper attempts to extract market expectations, as conveyed by an implied risk-neutral probability distribution, from option prices for the dollar-euro exchange rate. Returns` volatilities are inferred from observed and interpolated option prices. To address robustness, two distributions, one from actual data and the other from interpolated data, were computed. The main conclusion of the paper is that traders have wide-ranging expectations, and large movements in either direction would not occur as a surprise. The main implication for monetary policy is that should markets become too volatile, then intervention may be required.

Options Math for Traders, + Website

Author : Scott Nations
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118164377
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (181 download)

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Book Synopsis Options Math for Traders, + Website by : Scott Nations

Download or read book Options Math for Traders, + Website written by Scott Nations and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-10-30 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide to the math behind options and how that knowledge can improve your trading performance No book on options can guarantee success, but if a trader understands and utilizes option math effectively, good things are going to happen. The idea behind Options Math for Traders + Website is to help retail option traders understand some of the basic tenants and enduring relationships of options, and option math, that professional and institutional traders rely on every day. This book skillfully highlights those strategies that are inherently superior from an option math point of view and explains what drives that superiority while also examining why some strategies are inherently inferior. The material is explained without complex equations or technical jargon. The goal is to give you a solid conceptual foundation of options behavior so you can make more informed decisions when choosing an option strategy for your market outlook. Topics covered include the volatility premium, because over time, options will cost more than they are ultimately worth; skew, wherein far out of the money put options may seem cheap from an absolute term, but are very expensive in relative terms; and the acceleration in option price erosion. The book also has a companion Website, which includes links to those sites that can scan for the best strategies discussed in the book. Explains, in a non-technical manner, the mathematical properties of options so that traders can better select the right options strategy for their market outlook Companion Website contains timely tools that allow you to continue to learn in a hands-on fashion long after closing the book Written by top options expert Scott Nations Most independent traders have an imperfect understanding of the math behind options pricing. With Options Math for Traders + Website as your guide, you'll gain valuable lessons in this area and discover how this information can improve your trading performance.

Extracting Market Expectations from Options Prices

Author : Áron Gereben
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Extracting Market Expectations from Options Prices by : Áron Gereben

Download or read book Extracting Market Expectations from Options Prices written by Áron Gereben and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Information Content of Prices in Derivative Security Markets

Author : Louis O. Scott
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451932553
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis The Information Content of Prices in Derivative Security Markets by : Louis O. Scott

Download or read book The Information Content of Prices in Derivative Security Markets written by Louis O. Scott and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-12-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prices in futures markets and option markets reflect expectations about future price movements in spot markets, but these prices can also be influenced by risk premia. Futures and forward prices are sometimes interpreted as market expectations for future spot prices, and option prices are used to calculate the market’s expectations for future volatility of spot prices. Do these prices accurately reflect market expectations? The purpose of this paper is to examine the information that is reflected in futures prices and option prices. The issue is examined by reviewing both the relevant analytical models and the empirical evidence.

Option Strategies for Earnings Announcements

Author : Ping Zhou
Publisher : FT Press
ISBN 13 : 0132947404
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (329 download)

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Book Synopsis Option Strategies for Earnings Announcements by : Ping Zhou

Download or read book Option Strategies for Earnings Announcements written by Ping Zhou and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2012-10-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By trading on corporate earnings, investors can reliably profit in both up and down markets, while avoiding market risk for nearly the entire quarter. In this book, two leading traders and portfolio managers present specific, actionable techniques anyone can use to capture these sizable profits. Ping Zhou and John Shon have performed an unprecedented empirical analysis of thousands of stocks, reviewing tens of millions of data points associated with option prices, earnings announcement returns, and fundamentals. Their massive analysis has identified consistent opportunities associated with focusing on the magnitude of the market’s reaction to earnings, not its direction. Option Trading Set-Ups for Corporate Earnings News offers concrete guidance for improving the likelihood of making correct forecasts, and managing the risks of incorrect forecasts. It introduces several ways to exploit option trading opportunities around earnings news, discuss crucial issues that most retail investors haven’t considered, and explore aspects of earnings-related option trading that have never been empirically examined and documented before. For example, they identify hidden patterns and potential opportunities based on valuation, industry, volatility, analyst forecasts, seasonality, and trades that immediately follow earnings announcements. Simply put, trading on earnings reports offers immense profit opportunities, if you know how. This book provides incontrovertible facts and detailed strategies, not just theories and anecdotes!

Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices

Author : Hisashi Nakamura
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (247 download)

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Book Synopsis Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices by : Hisashi Nakamura

Download or read book Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices written by Hisashi Nakamura and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Option Pricing

Author : Menachem Brenner
Publisher : Free Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (321 download)

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Book Synopsis Option Pricing by : Menachem Brenner

Download or read book Option Pricing written by Menachem Brenner and published by Free Press. This book was released on 1983 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Currency Options and Exchange Rate Economics

Author : Zhaohui Chen
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814499161
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)

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Book Synopsis Currency Options and Exchange Rate Economics by : Zhaohui Chen

Download or read book Currency Options and Exchange Rate Economics written by Zhaohui Chen and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1998-04-21 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is a collection of classical and recent empirical studies of currency options and their implications for issues of exchange rate economics, such as exchange rate risk premium, volatility, market expectations, and credibility of exchange rate regimes. It contains applications on how to extract useful information from option market data for financial forecasting policy purposes. The subjects are discussed in a self-contained, user-friendly format, with introductory chapters on currency option theory and currency option markets. The book can be used as supplementary reading for graduate finance and international economics courses, as training material for central bank and regulatory authorities, or as a reference book for financial analysts. Contents:Learning from Currency Option Markets: An Overview (Z-H Chen)An Introduction to Option Pricing Theory (P G Zhang)An Introduction to Currency Option Markets (A M Malz)The Implied Volatility in Prices of Foreign Currency Options (L O Scott)Learning from the Term Structure of Implied Volatility in Foreign Exchange Options (J M Campa & P H K Chang)Options and the Currency Risk Premium (R K Lyons)Option Prices and the Probability Distribution of Exchange Rates (A M Malz)The ERM Realignment Probabilities: Estimates Using Option Prices (A M Malz)Options on Exchange Rates in Target Zones (J M Campa & P H K Chang)Inferring Market Expectations Using Currency Option Price and Volume Data (Z-H Chen & C A E Goodhart) Readership: Graduate students in economics & finance, academic researchers, central bank staff and private industry financiers. keywords:

Price Expectations in Goods and Financial Markets

Author : François Gardes
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Price Expectations in Goods and Financial Markets by : François Gardes

Download or read book Price Expectations in Goods and Financial Markets written by François Gardes and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2000 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and scholars in related fields discuss the concept of rationality of expectations from both a theoretical and an empirical point of view, and at both individual and collective levels. Concerning the first aspect, the book focuses on how agents collect and process information and how market opinion is formed. Concerning the second aspect, it presents studies based on individual price expectations and on the consensus revealed by survey data. Contributors analyze price expectations in a variety of markets, periods, and countries, paying special attention to financial markets which have represented the main field of study over the last ten years. Annotation copyrighted by Book News Inc., Portland, OR

Options:Essential Concepts, 3rd Edition

Author : The Options Institute
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 9780071341691
Total Pages : 470 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (416 download)

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Book Synopsis Options:Essential Concepts, 3rd Edition by : The Options Institute

Download or read book Options:Essential Concepts, 3rd Edition written by The Options Institute and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 1999-06-21 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Get the acknowledged industry classic revised and updated to deliver everything from time-honored options concepts to strategies for individual and institutional investors and traders. Every stock trader or market maker, whether currently involved with options or not, should own OPTIONS: ESSENTIAL CONCEPTS AND TRADING STRATEGIES, THIRD EDITION. Written by todays leading options practitionersand edited by The Options Institute, the globally renowned Educational Division of the Chicago Board Options ExchangeOPTIONS leaves no stone unturned in delivering the most complete, authoritative, and easy-to-understand blueprint available for navigating the profitable twists and turns of todays options marketplace. No-nonsense, packed with useful information, and valuable as either an introductory textbook or a comprehensive fingertip reference source, this thoroughly revised and updated edition details: What options are, how they are priced, and how they are traded; Basic option trading strategies such as covered writing and protective puts; Advanced strategies involving LEAPS and the stock repair strategy; Options from three points of view: private investor, institutional investor, and market maker; How to use the power of the Internet for trading and detailed information gathering. The well-organized, thought-provoking, and dependable ideas found here will help you use options to increase the returns in virtually any investment mix. The comprehensive answers to a wide range of options questions, as well as insights into the latest options trading strategies, cover: Option Market History From early transactions to latter-day innovations including LEAPS and index options, knowledge of options industry history will help you intuitively understand and trade profitably today; Essential Concepts Fundamentals of options pricing theory and their relationship to market prediction, stock selection, and risk management; volatility explained; and introductory strategies from long call to covered strangle; Investing and Trading Strategies Discussions of how to approach and understand "investing" strategies that focus on ownership of an underlying equity versus "trading". strategies with no intent to hold the underlying stock; plus, the function of market makers ; Real-Time Applications Institutional case studies; how to use options as an indicator of price moves for an underlying stock; using the Internet for instantaneous trades and information; plus, a comprehensive glossary of option market terminology. OPTIONS, THIRD EDITION, takes the guesswork out of trading options and gives you the information you need to become a savvy options trader. So get your questions together, and use this step-by-step guidebook to develop option strategies that meet your investment objectives: hedging your stock market risk, increasing your portfolio income, or improving your trading results.

Option Pricing, + Website

Author : Jerry Marlow
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471436416
Total Pages : 358 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (364 download)

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Book Synopsis Option Pricing, + Website by : Jerry Marlow

Download or read book Option Pricing, + Website written by Jerry Marlow and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2001-10-29 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text and CD-ROM tutorial provides traders with an accessible, interactive approach to understanding and using the Black-Scholes approach to options pricing. Integrating text and interactive computer animation, it teaches readers the basics of good options trading.

Financial Securities

Author : Blaise Allaz Bernard Dumas
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1489971165
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (899 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Securities by : Blaise Allaz Bernard Dumas

Download or read book Financial Securities written by Blaise Allaz Bernard Dumas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance is an area of business practice that has been deeply influenced by theoretical developments. This book provides the basic theoretical foundations necessary to understand how three broad classes of assets - stocks, options and bonds - are valued on financial markets, while developing the crucial concepts of market equilibrium and arbitrage. The analysis is rigorous, yet successfully bridges the gap between mathematical and non-mathematical approaches to provide a book which will be of interest to both academics and practitioners.

Stochastic Dominance Option Pricing

Author : Stylianos Perrakis
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030115909
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Stochastic Dominance Option Pricing by : Stylianos Perrakis

Download or read book Stochastic Dominance Option Pricing written by Stylianos Perrakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-03 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book illustrates the application of the economic concept of stochastic dominance to option markets and presents an alternative option pricing paradigm to the prevailing no arbitrage simultaneous equilibrium in the frictionless underlying and option markets. This new methodology was developed primarily by the author, working independently or jointly with other co-authors, over the course of more than thirty years. Among others, it yields the fundamental Black-Scholes-Merton option value when markets are complete, presents a new approach to the pricing of rare event risk, and uncovers option mispricing that leads to tradeable strategies in the presence of transaction costs. In the latter case it shows how a utility-maximizing investor trading in the market and a riskless bond, subject to proportional transaction costs, can increase his/her expected utility by overlaying a zero-net-cost portfolio of options bought at their ask price and written at their bid price, irrespective of the specific form of the utility function. The book contains a unified presentation of these methods and results, making it a highly readable supplement for educators and sophisticated professionals working in the popular field of option pricing. It also features a foreword by George Constantinides, the Leo Melamed Professor of Finance at the Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, USA, who was a co-author in several parts of the book.

Volatility and Time Series Econometrics

Author : Mark Watson
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199549494
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (995 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Time Series Econometrics by : Mark Watson

Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Mark Watson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics