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Market Efficiency And The Returns To Technical Analysis
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Book Synopsis Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis by : Hendrik Bessembinder
Download or read book Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis written by Hendrik Bessembinder and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We further investigate and provide interpretation for the intriguing Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) finding that simple forms of technical analysis contain significant forecast power for US equity index returns. We document that the forecast ability is partially, but not solely, attributable to return measurement errors arising from nonsynchronous trading. We argue that the evidence supporting technical forecast power need not be inconsistent with market efficiency. quot;Break-evenquot; one-way trading costs are computed to be 0.39% for the full sample and 0.22% since 1975, which are small compared to recent estimates of actual trading costs. Further, we test but fail to reject a key restriction that most equilibrium models place on return forecast ability: that the technical rules should not reliably identify periods of negative market risk premia.
Book Synopsis Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by : John J. Murphy
Download or read book Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets written by John J. Murphy and published by Penguin. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 579 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John J. Murphy has updated his landmark bestseller Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, to include all of the financial markets. This outstanding reference has already taught thousands of traders the concepts of technical analysis and their application in the futures and stock markets. Covering the latest developments in computer technology, technical tools, and indicators, the second edition features new material on candlestick charting, intermarket relationships, stocks and stock rotation, plus state-of-the-art examples and figures. From how to read charts to understanding indicators and the crucial role technical analysis plays in investing, readers gain a thorough and accessible overview of the field of technical analysis, with a special emphasis on futures markets. Revised and expanded for the demands of today's financial world, this book is essential reading for anyone interested in tracking and analyzing market behavior.
Book Synopsis Stock Market Efficiency and Price Behaviour by : O. P. Gupta
Download or read book Stock Market Efficiency and Price Behaviour written by O. P. Gupta and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Technical Analysis: Modern Perspectives by : Gordon Scott
Download or read book Technical Analysis: Modern Perspectives written by Gordon Scott and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-11-14 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Critical Review about Implications of the Efficient Market Hypothesis by : Sascha Kurth
Download or read book Critical Review about Implications of the Efficient Market Hypothesis written by Sascha Kurth and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2011-10 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2011 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,0, University of Hull, course: Current Issues Financial Management, language: English, abstract: The study examines and critical reviews the literature for the different implications based on the three levels of the Efficient Market Hypothesis for investors and company managers. If the weak form of the EMH holds, the technical analyse is useless, but ninety percent of traders in London are using it. If the semi-strong-form holds the fundamental analysis, study of published accounts, search for undervalued companies are useless and investors should be focus on diversification and avoiding of transaction costs. Furthermore the semi-strong form would imply for managers, that accounting disclosure to deceived shareholders is useless, the company market value is the best indicator for the company value and management decisions, the company does not need specialists for the timing of issues and there are no opportunities for a cheap acquisition of another company. At least if the strong-form of the EMH holds, it would imply that even with insider information it would not be possible to get above average returns. The literature shows, that the studies of EMH have made an important contribution to our understanding of the security market. It also shows that in some cases scientific results do not strong influence the behaviour of manager and investors in the "real world".
Book Synopsis Market Efficiency and Returns to Simple Technical Trading Rules by : Gary Gang Tian
Download or read book Market Efficiency and Returns to Simple Technical Trading Rules written by Gary Gang Tian and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Numerous studies in the finance literature have investigated technical analysis to determine its validity as an investment tool. This study is an attempt to explore whether some forms of technical analysis can predict stock price movement and make excess profits based on certain trading rules in markets with different efficiency level. To avoid using arbitrarily selected 26 trading rules as did by Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron (1992) and later by Bessembinder and Chan (1998), this paper examines predictive power and profitability of simple trading rules by expanding their universe of 26 rules to 412 rules. In order to find out the relationship between market efficiency and excess return by applying trading rules, we examine excess return over periods in US markets and also compare the excess returns between US market and Chinese markets. Our results found that there is no evidence at all supporting technical forecast power by these trading rules in US equity index after 1975. During the 1990's break-even costs turned to be negative, -0.06%, even failing to beat a buy-holding strategy in US equity market. In comparison, our results provide support for the technical strategies even in the presence of trading cost in Chinese stock markets.
Book Synopsis Price-Based Investment Strategies by : Adam Zaremba
Download or read book Price-Based Investment Strategies written by Adam Zaremba and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-25 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This compelling book examines the price-based revolution in investing, showing how research over recent decades has reinvented technical analysis. The authors discuss the major groups of price-based strategies, considering their theoretical motivation, individual and combined implementation, and back-tested results when applied to investment across country stock markets. Containing a comprehensive sample of performance data, taken from 24 major developed markets around the world and ranging over the last 25 years, the authors construct practical portfolios and display their performance—ensuring the book is not only academically rigorous, but practically applicable too. This is a highly useful volume that will be of relevance to researchers and students working in the field of price-based investing, as well as individual investors, fund pickers, market analysts, fund managers, pension fund consultants, hedge fund portfolio managers, endowment chief investment officers, futures traders, and family office investors.
Book Synopsis How Technical Analysis Investors Use Trends by : Charles D. Kirkpatrick II
Download or read book How Technical Analysis Investors Use Trends written by Charles D. Kirkpatrick II and published by Pearson Education. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Element is an excerpt from Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, Second Edition (9780137059447) by Charles D. Kirkpatrick III, CMT, and Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT. Available in print and digital formats. How technical analysts understand trends and translate those insights into market profits. Technical analysis is based on one major assumption: trend. Markets trend. Traders and investors hope to buy a security at the beginning of an uptrend at a low price, ride the trend, and sell the security when the trend ends at a high price. Although this strategy sounds very simple, implementing it is exceedingly complex. For example....
Book Synopsis “Investing in a market where people believe in efficiency is like playing bridge with someone who has been told it doesn’t do any good to look at the cards.” by : Charles Ekweruo
Download or read book “Investing in a market where people believe in efficiency is like playing bridge with someone who has been told it doesn’t do any good to look at the cards.” written by Charles Ekweruo and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2011-12-08 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2011 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1, University of Bradford (School of Management-Business School), course: Capital Market Investment And Finance, language: English, abstract: “In an efficient market, security (example shares) prices rationally reflect available information” (Arnold 2005, p.684). The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) refers to share price movement with respect to available information and thus no trader will be presented with an opportunity of making supernormal profits (except by chance), therefore their profits on a share will reflect the riskiness associated with that shares (Pike and Neal 2009). However, “detailed investigations using advanced econometric techniques, larger data sets, increasingly powerful computing ability, and alternative theoretical models have in the last few years revealed a range of anomalies when the unpredictability-of -returns hypothesis is tested. Financial markets are often predictable to some extent, but the crucial question is whether this predictability can be exploited to make excess profits from trading in the markets‖ (Mills 1992, as cited by Coutts, 2000, p.579). Warren Buffet, known as one of the most successful investors in history, is convinced that stock markets are inefficient. ''I think it's fascinating how the ruling orthodoxy can cause a lot of people to think the earth is flat. Investing in a market where people believe in efficiency is like playing bridge with someone who has been told it doesn't do any good to look at the cards'' (Buffet, 1984, as cited by Davis, 1990, p.4). Buffet is referring to the fact that market price movements are often caused by emotional purchases and sales of stocks, resulting to an inefficient market, in other words, irrational market prices (Buffet, 1984). However, there are financial economists who see it the other way round. They agree with the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” which states that security prices rationally reflect only available information (Arnold, 2005, p. 684) (see fig 1) therefore inhibiting the possibility of beating the market. According to this theory, there does not exist under- or overvalued shares, only true and fair values. It is difficult to say which side is right and which side is wrong, as both are based on logical reasoning and transparent facts. This paper will therefore, evaluate both concepts using different theories and ideas from those for and those against the EMH in order to find a conclusion which is reasonable and flexible enough to support a constructive point of view (based on pragmatism) and to better understand if Buffet‟s statement is true or false or maybe both.
Book Synopsis Efficient Market Hypothesis by : Mario Chinas
Download or read book Efficient Market Hypothesis written by Mario Chinas and published by Library of Cyprus. This book was released on 2019-02-23 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the Black & White version of the book, available at a discount, which does not include the research data and analysis tables. There is also a Full Colour version that includes all the research data and analysis tables. What is a Stock Market? How do stock markets operate? Who invests in a stock market and when is it an appropriate tool for investment? Why do we care if a stock market is efficient or not? Where can we find evidence of market efficiency? With what tools can we test market efficiency?These are some of the questions that this book approaches. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is a theory in financial economics, developed by Eugene Fama, which states that asset prices fully reflect all available information. Thus, it is implied that stocks always trade at their fair value, making it impossible for investors to "beat the market" via technical or fundamental analysis, since market prices should only react to new information.There are three variants of the EMH: "weak," "semi-strong," and "strong" form. The weak form of the EMH claims that prices already reflect all past publicly available market information. The semi-strong form claims that prices reflect all publicly available information, thus price changes occur to reflect new publicly available information. The strong form adds to this that prices instantly reflect even hidden private "insider" information.Testing the EMH is no easy task: Quantifying the availability of information and its effect on prices and market efficiency is challenging, making research on the subject difficult, time consuming and open to criticism. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that markets at best reach semi-strong form efficiency, with weak form efficiency being the norm. However, even this is challenged by the critics of EMH, via concepts such as Behavioural Finance.This book aims to familiarise the reader with the concept of EMH, covering the fundamentals and relevant literature. We then discuss market efficiency tests for Weak Form Market Efficiency, examining in more detail the day-of-the-week effect and its significance on stock market efficiency. The day-of-the-week effect is defined as a pattern where a certain day of the week has abnormal returns continuously. It is an anomaly that violates the random walk hypothesis, and thus implies that a market is not Weak Form efficient.We put theory into practice through the Empirical Research section which is divided into two parts, looking at two different approaches to researching the day-of-the-week effect, via the examination of actual research examples on a small European stock exchange. Both of these Thesis tested the hypothesis of random walk to determine the authenticity of weak form market efficiency for a small emerging stock market within the EU (the Cyprus Stock Exchange).
Book Synopsis Technical Analysis - Myth or Magic? by : Christian Kössler
Download or read book Technical Analysis - Myth or Magic? written by Christian Kössler and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2011-01-12 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1, Sheffield Hallam University (Sheffield Business School), language: English, abstract: Table of content TABLE OF FIGURES..................................................................................................I GLOSSARY...............................................................................................................II 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. SHARE ANALYSIS AND ITS PREMISES 5 2.1 CLASSIFICATION AND DEVELOPMENT 5 2.2 DOW THEORY IN CORRESPONDENCE WITH TA 6 2.2.1 The Averages Discount Everything (except ‘Acts of God’) 6 2.2.2 The Three Trends 7 2.2.3 The History repeats itself 10 2.2.4 Criticism of the Dow Theory 11 2.3 RANDOM WALK THEORY IN CORRESPONDENCE WITH BHS 12 2.3.1 Criticism of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 15 2.4 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 17 2.5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS VERSUS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 17 3. METHODOLOGY 20 3.1 TEST CONDITIONS 20 3.2 TESTED INDICES 23 4. INSTRUMENTS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 25 4.1 INDICATORS 25 4.1.1 Moving Averages 25 4.1.2 Moving Average Convergence Divergence 26 4.1.3 Bollinger Bands 27 4.2 OSCILLATORS 28 4.2.1 The dilemma of Oscillators 28 4.2.2 Momentum 28 4.2.3 Relative Strength Index 30 4.2.4 Slow Stochastic 31 4.2.5 Combination of Indicators and Oscillators 32 4.3 APPROACH TO PERFORMANCE TESTS 32 5. RESULTS/FINDINGS 34 5.1 BHS 34 5.2 EMA 35 5.3 MACD 36 5.4 BOLLINGER BANDS 37 5.5 MOMENTUM 38 5.6 RSI 39 5.7 SLOW STOCHASTIC 40 6. ANALYSIS 41 6.1 EMA 41 6.2 MACD 43 6.3 BOLLINGER BANDS 44 6.4 MOMENTUM 45 6.5 RSI 47 6.6 SLOW STOCHASTIC 48 7. CONCLUSION 50 8. APPENDIX 53 9. REFERENCES 71
Book Synopsis Finance 2: Asset Allocation and Market Efficiency by : Michael Frömmel
Download or read book Finance 2: Asset Allocation and Market Efficiency written by Michael Frömmel and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2023-03-22 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This books builds on 'Finance 1: Portfolio Theory and Management'. Both volumes are linked through the asset allocation process. While Finance 1 focuses on portfolio theory and strategic asset allocation, Finance 2 deals with tactical asset allocation and market efficiency. We start by reviewing the asset allocation process, market timing and the approach by Black and Litterman. Section 2 deals with the predictability of prices, including technical analysis and momentum. Turning to factors that may cause the predictability - if there is any - we discuss models from behavioural finance. The subsequent section deals with bubbles and herd behaviour, before we cover market microstructure and its implications. The book's last section deals with price manipulation as a cause for inefficiencies.
Book Synopsis Profitability of Technical Analysis by : Fred Kut Hing Tam
Download or read book Profitability of Technical Analysis written by Fred Kut Hing Tam and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Short Introduction to Corporate Finance by : Raghavendra Rau
Download or read book Short Introduction to Corporate Finance written by Raghavendra Rau and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-01-11 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Short Introduction to Corporate Finance provides an accessibly written guide to contemporary financial institutional practice. Rau deploys both his professional expertise and experience of teaching MBA and graduate-level courses to produce a lively discussion of the key concepts of finance, liberally illustrated with real-world examples. Built around six essential paradigms, he builds an integrated framework covering all the major ideas in finance over the past half-century. Ideal for students and practitioners alike, it will become core reading for anyone aspiring to become an effective manager.
Download or read book Econophysics written by Gheorghe Săvoiu and published by Elsevier Inc. Chapters. This book was released on 2012-11-27 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing (Ninth Edition) by : Burton G. Malkiel
Download or read book A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing (Ninth Edition) written by Burton G. Malkiel and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2007-12-17 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Updated with a new chapter that draws on behavioral finance, the field that studies the psychology of investment decisions, the bestselling guide to investing evaluates the full range of financial opportunities.
Book Synopsis Profitability Evaluation of Major Technical Analysis Trading Strategies Applied to the S&P 500 from 2005 to 2023 by : David Neufang
Download or read book Profitability Evaluation of Major Technical Analysis Trading Strategies Applied to the S&P 500 from 2005 to 2023 written by David Neufang and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2024-09-03 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2024 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1.0, Reutlingen University, language: English, abstract: This thesis will examine how the efficient market hypothesis (Fama, 1965), the random-walk hypothesis, and the Martingale model relate to the profitability of technical analysis. Additionally, relevant research on profitability up to 2023 will be presented and summarized, highlighting major findings in the context of profitability following technical trading rules. The contribution to current research is made by testing the profitability of popular technical analysis strategies and discussing the underlying reasons for any observed profitability. Furthermore, a separate analysis will be conducted, applying four technical analysis strategies to the S&P 500 time series from 2005 to 2023. This thesis shows that none of the, in selected literature deemed profitable, trading strategies applied by Marshall (2017), Kuang et al. (2014), and Brock et al. (1992) are outperforming a S&P 500 buy-and-hold strategy between 2005 and 2023. Robustness checks such as break-even transaction cost analysis show that only two moving average variation strategies are profitable at the 20 basis points transaction cost level. Neglecting this influence of transaction costs, only one of these strategies’ returns are greater than those of a buy-and-hold strategy, though still of unsignificant nature. Nevertheless, technical analysis strategies exhibit superior performance in terms of Sharpe ratio compared to the buy-and-hold approach. This is primarily due to this thesis’ assumption of investing in risk-free treasury bills when not allocated to the S&P 500 index.
