Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging For Dynamic Panels With Short Time Periods

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Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods

Author : Alin Mirestean
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods by : Alin Mirestean

Download or read book Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods written by Alin Mirestean and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) provides a coherent mechanism to address the problem of model uncertainty. In this paper we extend the BMA framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation results suggest that asymptotically our methodology performs well both in Bayesian model selection and averaging. In particular, LIBMA recovers the data generating process very well, with high posterior inclusion probabilities for all the relevant regressors, and parameter estimates very close to the true values. These findings suggest that our methodology is well suited for inference in dynamic panel data models with short time periods in the presence of endogenous regressors under model uncertainty.

Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model

Author : Huigang Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463921306
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)

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Book Synopsis Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model by : Huigang Chen

Download or read book Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model written by Huigang Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation results suggest that asymptotically our methodology performs well both in Bayesian model averaging and selection. In particular, LIBMA recovers the data generating process well, with high posterior inclusion probabilities for all the relevant regressors, and parameter estimates very close to their true values. These findings suggest that our methodology is well suited for inference in short dynamic panel data models with endogenous regressors in the context of model uncertainty. We illustrate the use of LIBMA in an application to the estimation of a dynamic gravity model for bilateral trade.

Sustaining Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Low Income Countries - The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification - Background Notes

Download Sustaining Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Low Income Countries - The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification - Background Notes PDF Online Free

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 149834366X
Total Pages : 107 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Sustaining Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Low Income Countries - The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification - Background Notes by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Sustaining Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Low Income Countries - The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification - Background Notes written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-03 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

Author : Mr.Shekhar Aiyar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484315804
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap by : Mr.Shekhar Aiyar

Download or read book Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap written by Mr.Shekhar Aiyar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-20 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.

Determinants of Growth Spells

Author : Mr.Charalambos G. Tsangarides
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475510225
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Determinants of Growth Spells by : Mr.Charalambos G. Tsangarides

Download or read book Determinants of Growth Spells written by Mr.Charalambos G. Tsangarides and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-09-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine determinants of growth spells in Africa and the rest of the world using Bayesian Mode Averaging techniques for proportional hazards models. We define growth spells as periods of sustained growth episodes between growth accelerations and decelerations and then relate the probability that a growth spell ends to various determinants including exogenous shocks, physical and human capital, macroeconomic policy, and sociopolitical factors. Our analysis suggests that determinants of growth spells in Africa are different from those in the rest of the world. The majority of the identified robust determinants have a distinct impact in only one of the two samples: initial income, terms of trade, exchange rate undervaluation and inflation, influence spells only in the world sample, while openness and droughts seem to only affect Africa. In addition, a few common determinants - proxies for human and physical capital and changes in the world interest rate - have very different marginal effects in the two samples.

Panel Data Econometrics with R

Author : Yves Croissant
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118949188
Total Pages : 435 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (189 download)

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Book Synopsis Panel Data Econometrics with R by : Yves Croissant

Download or read book Panel Data Econometrics with R written by Yves Croissant and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-08-10 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Panel Data Econometrics with R provides a tutorial for using R in the field of panel data econometrics. Illustrated throughout with examples in econometrics, political science, agriculture and epidemiology, this book presents classic methodology and applications as well as more advanced topics and recent developments in this field including error component models, spatial panels and dynamic models. They have developed the software programming in R and host replicable material on the book’s accompanying website.

Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics

Author : Gary Koop
Publisher : Now Publishers Inc
ISBN 13 : 160198362X
Total Pages : 104 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics by : Gary Koop

Download or read book Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics written by Gary Koop and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.

Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data

Author : Peter Fuleky
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030311503
Total Pages : 716 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data by : Peter Fuleky

Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data written by Peter Fuleky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-28 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.

Bayesian Econometrics

Author : Gary Koop
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 382 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (321 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Econometrics by : Gary Koop

Download or read book Bayesian Econometrics written by Gary Koop and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 2003 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Researchers in many fields are increasingly finding the Bayesian approach to statistics to be an attractive one. This book introduces the reader to the use of Bayesian methods in the field of econometrics at the advanced undergraduate or graduate level. The book is self-contained and does not require that readers have previous training in econometrics. The focus is on models used by applied economists and the computational techniques necessary to implement Bayesian methods when doing empirical work. Topics covered in the book include the regression model (and variants applicable for use with panel data), time series models, models for qualitative or censored data, nonparametric methods and Bayesian model averaging. The book includes numerous empirical examples and the website associated with it contains data sets and computer programs to help the student develop the computational skills of modern Bayesian econometrics.

Bayesian Networks

Author : Marco Scutari
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000410382
Total Pages : 275 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Networks by : Marco Scutari

Download or read book Bayesian Networks written by Marco Scutari and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-07-28 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the material step-by-step starting from meaningful examples Steps detailed with R code in the spirit of reproducible research Real world data analyses from a Science paper reproduced and explained in detail Examples span a variety of fields across social and life sciences Overview of available software in and outside R

Econometric Analysis of Panel Data

Author : Badi Baltagi
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470518863
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (75 download)

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Book Synopsis Econometric Analysis of Panel Data by : Badi Baltagi

Download or read book Econometric Analysis of Panel Data written by Badi Baltagi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-30 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by one of the world's leading researchers and writers in the field, Econometric Analysis of Panel Data has become established as the leading textbook for postgraduate courses in panel data. This new edition reflects the rapid developments in the field covering the vast research that has been conducted on panel data since its initial publication. Featuring the most recent empirical examples from panel data literature, data sets are also provided as well as the programs to implement the estimation and testing procedures described in the book. These programs will be made available via an accompanying website which will also contain solutions to end of chapter exercises that will appear in the book. The text has been fully updated with new material on dynamic panel data models and recent results on non-linear panel models and in particular work on limited dependent variables panel data models.

The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics

Author : John Geweke
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0191618268
Total Pages : 576 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (916 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics by : John Geweke

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics written by John Geweke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as state space models and particle filtering. It also includes chapters on Bayesian principles and methodology.

Longitudinal and Panel Data

Author : Edward W. Frees
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521535380
Total Pages : 492 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (353 download)

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Book Synopsis Longitudinal and Panel Data by : Edward W. Frees

Download or read book Longitudinal and Panel Data written by Edward W. Frees and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-08-16 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to foundations and applications for quantitatively oriented graduate social-science students and individual researchers.

Statistical Parametric Mapping: The Analysis of Functional Brain Images

Author : William D. Penny
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080466508
Total Pages : 689 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Parametric Mapping: The Analysis of Functional Brain Images by : William D. Penny

Download or read book Statistical Parametric Mapping: The Analysis of Functional Brain Images written by William D. Penny and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-04-28 with total page 689 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an age where the amount of data collected from brain imaging is increasing constantly, it is of critical importance to analyse those data within an accepted framework to ensure proper integration and comparison of the information collected. This book describes the ideas and procedures that underlie the analysis of signals produced by the brain. The aim is to understand how the brain works, in terms of its functional architecture and dynamics. This book provides the background and methodology for the analysis of all types of brain imaging data, from functional magnetic resonance imaging to magnetoencephalography. Critically, Statistical Parametric Mapping provides a widely accepted conceptual framework which allows treatment of all these different modalities. This rests on an understanding of the brain's functional anatomy and the way that measured signals are caused experimentally. The book takes the reader from the basic concepts underlying the analysis of neuroimaging data to cutting edge approaches that would be difficult to find in any other source. Critically, the material is presented in an incremental way so that the reader can understand the precedents for each new development. This book will be particularly useful to neuroscientists engaged in any form of brain mapping; who have to contend with the real-world problems of data analysis and understanding the techniques they are using. It is primarily a scientific treatment and a didactic introduction to the analysis of brain imaging data. It can be used as both a textbook for students and scientists starting to use the techniques, as well as a reference for practicing neuroscientists. The book also serves as a companion to the software packages that have been developed for brain imaging data analysis. - An essential reference and companion for users of the SPM software - Provides a complete description of the concepts and procedures entailed by the analysis of brain images - Offers full didactic treatment of the basic mathematics behind the analysis of brain imaging data - Stands as a compendium of all the advances in neuroimaging data analysis over the past decade - Adopts an easy to understand and incremental approach that takes the reader from basic statistics to state of the art approaches such as Variational Bayes - Structured treatment of data analysis issues that links different modalities and models - Includes a series of appendices and tutorial-style chapters that makes even the most sophisticated approaches accessible

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation

Author : Kenneth Train
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521766559
Total Pages : 399 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (217 download)

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Book Synopsis Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation by : Kenneth Train

Download or read book Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation written by Kenneth Train and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-06 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

The Shifts and the Shocks

Author : Martin Wolf
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0143127632
Total Pages : 529 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (431 download)

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Book Synopsis The Shifts and the Shocks by : Martin Wolf

Download or read book The Shifts and the Shocks written by Martin Wolf and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 529 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the chief economic commentator for the Financial Times—a brilliant tour d’horizon of the new global economy There have been many books that have sought to explain the causes and courses of the financial and economic crisis that began in 2007. The Shifts and the Shocks is not another detailed history of the crisis but is the most persuasive and complete account yet published of what the crisis should teach us about modern economies and economics. Written with all the intellectual command and trenchant judgment that have made Martin Wolf one of the world’s most influential economic commentators, The Shifts and the Shocks matches impressive analysis with no-holds-barred criticism and persuasive prescription for a more stable future. It is a book no one with an interest in global affairs will want to neglect.

Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data

Author : Lang Wu
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9781420074086
Total Pages : 431 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data by : Lang Wu

Download or read book Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data written by Lang Wu and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-11-11 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although standard mixed effects models are useful in a range of studies, other approaches must often be used in correlation with them when studying complex or incomplete data. Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data discusses commonly used mixed effects models and presents appropriate approaches to address dropouts, missing data, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. For each class of mixed effects model, the author reviews the corresponding class of regression model for cross-sectional data. An overview of general models and methods, along with motivating examples After presenting real data examples and outlining general approaches to the analysis of longitudinal/clustered data and incomplete data, the book introduces linear mixed effects (LME) models, generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), nonlinear mixed effects (NLME) models, and semiparametric and nonparametric mixed effects models. It also includes general approaches for the analysis of complex data with missing values, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers. Self-contained coverage of specific topics Subsequent chapters delve more deeply into missing data problems, covariate measurement errors, and censored responses in mixed effects models. Focusing on incomplete data, the book also covers survival and frailty models, joint models of survival and longitudinal data, robust methods for mixed effects models, marginal generalized estimating equation (GEE) models for longitudinal or clustered data, and Bayesian methods for mixed effects models. Background material In the appendix, the author provides background information, such as likelihood theory, the Gibbs sampler, rejection and importance sampling methods, numerical integration methods, optimization methods, bootstrap, and matrix algebra. Failure to properly address missing data, measurement errors, and other issues in statistical analyses can lead to severely biased or misleading results. This book explores the biases that arise when naïve methods are used and shows which approaches should be used to achieve accurate results in longitudinal data analysis.