Lessons From Rands Work On Planning Under Uncertainty For National Security

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Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security

Author : Paul K. Davis
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 9780833076618
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (766 download)

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Book Synopsis Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security by : Paul K. Davis

Download or read book Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2012-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A first step in dealing with uncertainty is confronting its existence, ubiquity, and magnitude. A second step is dealing with it when informing assessments and decisions. As the Cold War waned, RAND developed new methods that urged sketching the no-surprises future, listing known branch-style uncertainties, and stretching the imagination to envision potential shocks, good or bad (e.g., Soviet Union disintegration or Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait). Major surprises will nonetheless occur, and some of RAND's most important work on uncertainty has to do with coping with surprise developments. RAND's progress in national security uncertainty analysis benefited from a confluence of developments in computer and software technology, theory and practice in strategic planning and decisionmaking, analytic theory and methods, and theory of complex adaptive systems. Work has emphasized facing up to deep uncertainty in many dimensions, performing exploratory analysis of "the possibility space," identifying regions of that space that pose special risks or opportunities, finding options to improve capabilities, and using portfolio analysis to conceive and compare strategic options for economically dealing with the diversity of challenges. A cross-cutting RAND theme is finding flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR) strategies. Ultimately, different problems call for different approaches to uncertainty. If the theory of planning under uncertainty and preparing to cope with surprise effectively is difficult and complex, this report makes clear that implementing and maintaining corresponding changes is even more difficult and suggests that policymakers to be constantly vigilant in ensuring that related initiatives are not undercut or allowed to wither."--Provided by publisher.

Strategic Planning for National Security

Author : Paul J. Bracken
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategic Planning for National Security by : Paul J. Bracken

Download or read book Strategic Planning for National Security written by Paul J. Bracken and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States defense planning is at a crossroads and it is therefore useful to review not only discrete issues, but even basic concepts of strategic planning. This Note reviews concepts used in the business world to build insights about how to view current and prospective problems, opportunities, and choices. The author draws upon the business literature for both ideas and metaphors. He observes that U.S. national security planning could profit greatly from an approach that distinguishes among 'core, environmental, and hedging strategies, ' and that considers security analogs to such business concepts as defining the business, dealing with new competitors, controlling the intensity of competition, entry and exit barriers, and the need to redeploy assets and restructure the organization. He then relates these concepts to specific problems of national security interest. Keywords: National security, Military strategy, Military planning, Defense planning, Commerce. (EG).

The Political Economy of Risk in Finance and the Military

Author : Marc Schelhase
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031119681
Total Pages : 186 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (311 download)

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Book Synopsis The Political Economy of Risk in Finance and the Military by : Marc Schelhase

Download or read book The Political Economy of Risk in Finance and the Military written by Marc Schelhase and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-12-12 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about risk conceptions, experiences and reflections. It applies the concept of the risk triangle, with its societal, organisational and personal angles, to two areas of inquiry: financial markets and the military, seeking to demonstrate the challenges, dilemmas and, in many ways, also the impossibilities of risk analysis and risk management. Drawing on empirical and micro- and macro-level analysis, this innovative work will appeal to students of political science, economics and business as well as to risk professionals and risk-takers.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation

Author : Paul K. Davis
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833040170
Total Pages : 86 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation by : Paul K. Davis

Download or read book Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report extends research on using scenarios for strategic planning, with experiments in what can be called massive scenario generation (MSG), a computationally intensive technique that seeks to combine virtues of human- and model-based exploration of "the possibility space." The authors measure particular approaches to MSG against four metrics: not needing a good initial model; the dimensionality of the possibility space considered; the degree of exploration of that space; and the quality of resulting knowledge. The authors then describe two MSG experiments for contrasting cases, one that began with a reasonable but untested analytical model, and one that began without an analytical model, but with a thoughtful list of the conditions that might characterize and distinguish among circumstances in the situation considered, a list derived from a combination of single-analyst thinking and group brainstorming. The authors experimented with a variety of methods and tools for interpreting and making sense of the "data" arising from MSG, using ordinary linear sensitivity analysis, a generalization using analyst-inspired aggregation fragments, some advanced filtering methods drawing on data-mining and machine-learning methods, and motivated metamodeling. On the basis of this preliminary work, we conclude that MSG has the potential to expand the scope of what are recognized as possible developments, provide an understanding of how those developments might come about, and help identify aspects of the world that should be studied more carefully, tested, or monitored. It should assist planners by enriching their mental library of the patterns used to guide reasoning and action at the time of crisis or decision and should help them identify anomalous situations requiring unusual actions. Finally, it should identify crucial issues worthy of testing or experimentation in games or other venues and, in some cases, suggest better ways to design mission rehearsals. If MSG can be built into training, education, research, and socialization exercises, it should leave participants with a wider and better sense of the possible, while developing skill at problem-solving in situations other than those of the "best estimate." Much development is needed, but prospects are encouraging.

Capabilities-Based Planning for Energy Security at Department of Defense Installations

Author : Constantine Samaras
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833079115
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Capabilities-Based Planning for Energy Security at Department of Defense Installations by : Constantine Samaras

Download or read book Capabilities-Based Planning for Energy Security at Department of Defense Installations written by Constantine Samaras and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2013 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Department of Defense (DoD) installations rely on the commercial electricity grid for 99 percent of their electricity needs, but the U.S. electricity grid is vulnerable to disruption from natural hazards and actor-induced outages, such as physical or cyber attacks. Using portfolio analysis methods for assessing capability options, this paper presents a framework to evaluate choices among energy security strategies for DoD installations.

Strategy and Defence Planning

Author : Colin S. Gray
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0198701845
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (987 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategy and Defence Planning by : Colin S. Gray

Download or read book Strategy and Defence Planning written by Colin S. Gray and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategy and Defence Planning: Meeting the Challenge of Uncertainty explores and examines why and how security communities prepare purposefully for their future defence. Professor Gray argues that our understanding of human nature, of politics, and of strategic history, does allow us to make prudent choices in defence planning.

U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309298741
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities by : National Research Council

Download or read book U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2015-01-02 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.

National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty

Author : Paul K. Davis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty by : Paul K. Davis

Download or read book National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty written by Paul K. Davis and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Defence Planning as Strategic Fact

Author : Henrik Breitenbauch
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000732177
Total Pages : 202 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Defence Planning as Strategic Fact by : Henrik Breitenbauch

Download or read book Defence Planning as Strategic Fact written by Henrik Breitenbauch and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-06-04 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Defence Planning as Strategic Fact provides and elaborates on an "upstream" focus on the variegated organizational, political and conceptual practices of military, civilian administrative and political leaderships involved in defence planning, offering an important security and strategic studies supplement to the traditional "downstream" focus on the use of force. The book enables the reader to engage with the role of ideas in defence planning, of organizational processes and biases, path dependencies and administrative dynamics under the pressures of continuously changing domestic and international constraints. The chapters show how defence planning must be seen as a constitutive element of defence and strategic studies – that it is a strategic fact of its own which merits particular practical and scholarly attention. As defence planning creates the conditions behind every peace upheld or broken and every war won or lost, Defence Planning as Strategic Fact will be of great use to scholars of defence studies, strategic studies, and military studies. This book was originally published as a special issue of Defence Studies.

The Practitioner's Handbook of Project Performance

Author : Mark Phillips
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351974890
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis The Practitioner's Handbook of Project Performance by : Mark Phillips

Download or read book The Practitioner's Handbook of Project Performance written by Mark Phillips and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-11-11 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practitioners operate in a necessary reality. We work in a space where project performance is above theory or methodology. In the best environments, delivery and an affirmative culture are what matter most. In the worst, it is politics and survival. In any environment we are challenged to adopt best practices and adapt our style to the environment in which the project is occurring. This is a book about those best practices and practitioner experiences. It is a must have reference and guide book for project managers, general managers, business leaders and project management researchers. This book is the result of the hard work and dedication of more than 35 authors from more than 15 countries across four continents. It brings a diversity of experience, professional and personal. It includes practitioners, leading academics, renowned theorists and many who straddle those roles. The chapters cover experiences in software, large scale infrastructure projects, finance and health care, to name a few. The chapters themselves take many forms. Check out the table of contents to get a deeper sense of the topics included. All provide real-world guidance on delivering high performing projects and show you how to build, lead and manage high performing teams. The Practitioners Handbook of Project Performance is complete in itself. It can also be an enticing start to an ongoing dialogue with the authors and a pleasurable path to get deeper into the subject of project performance. Find your favorite place to begin learning from these chapters, to begin taking notes and taking away nuggets to use in your everyday. But don’t stop there. Contact information and further resources for this diverse team of experts authors are found throughout. The Practitioners Handbook is a modern guide to the leading edge of project performance management and a path to the future of project delivery.

Advances in Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems and in Cross-Cultural Psychological Studies

Author : Colette Faucher
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319670247
Total Pages : 473 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems and in Cross-Cultural Psychological Studies by : Colette Faucher

Download or read book Advances in Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems and in Cross-Cultural Psychological Studies written by Colette Faucher and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-03 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers valuable new insights into the design of culturally-aware systems. In its first part, it is devoted to presenting selected Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems devised in the field of Artificial Intelligence and its second part consists of two sub-parts that offer a source of inspiration for building modelizations of Culture and of its influence on the human mind and behavior, to be used in new Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems. Those sub-parts present the results of experiments conducted in two fields that study Culture and its influence on the human mind’s functions: Cultural Neuroscience and Cross-Cultural Psychology. In this era of globalization, people from different countries and cultures have the opportunity to interact directly or indirectly in a wide variety of contexts. Despite differences in their ways of thinking and reasoning, their behaviors, their values, lifestyles, customs and habits, languages, religions – in a word, their cultures – they must be able to collaborate on projects, to understand each other’s views, to communicate in such a way that they don’t offend each other, to anticipate the effects of their actions on others, and so on. As such, it is of primary importance to understand how culture affects people’s mental activities, such as perception, interpretation, reasoning, emotion and behavior, in order to anticipate possible misunderstandings due to differences in handling the same situation, and to try and resolve them. Artificial Intelligence, and more specifically, the field of Intelligent Systems design, aims at building systems that mimic the behavior of human beings in order to complete tasks more efficiently than humans could by themselves. Consequently, in the last decade, experts and scholars in the field of Intelligent Systems have been increasingly tackling the notion of cultural awareness. A Culturally-Aware Intelligent System can be defined as a system where Culture-related or, more generally, socio-cultural information is modeled and used to design the human-machine interface, or to provide support with the task carried out by the system, be it reasoning, simulation or any other task involving cultural knowledge.

Charting a Course: Strategic Choices for a New Administration

Author : Richard D. Hooker (Jr.)
Publisher : Government Printing Office
ISBN 13 : 9780160937446
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (374 download)

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Book Synopsis Charting a Course: Strategic Choices for a New Administration by : Richard D. Hooker (Jr.)

Download or read book Charting a Course: Strategic Choices for a New Administration written by Richard D. Hooker (Jr.) and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2016 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Charting a Course: Strategic Choices for a New Administration: The new administration takes office in a time of great complexity. Our new President faces a national security environment shaped by strong currents: globalization; the proliferation of new, poor, and weak states, as well as nonstate actors; an enduring landscape of violent extremist organizations; slow economic growth; the rise of China and a revanchist Russia; a collapsing Middle East; and a domestic politics wracked by division and mistrust. While in absolute terms the Nation and the world are safer than in the last century, today the United States finds itself almost on a permanent war footing, engaged in military operations around the world. [...] No formal document describes a grand strategy for the United States, and indeed, many academics deny that one exists. Yet a close look at our history as a world power suggests that core interests and how we secure them have remained generally consistent over time. If grand strategy "rises above particular strategies intended to secure particular objectives," many decades of focusing on nuclear deterrence, power projection, alliances and partnerships, and military and economic strength probably constitute the underpinnings of a coherent grand strategy. How we employ and leverage these instruments of national power to protect, defend, and advance the national interest is, after all, the essence of grand strategy. In a dangerous world, these pillars have provided a strong foundation for national security. If our domestic politics can achieve consensus on future threats and solutions, America is well positioned to lead and prosper in a world that will remain both dangerous and uncertain. R.D. Hooker, Jr. Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Washington, D.C. Related items: Policy Analysis in National Security Affairs: New Methods for a New Era can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-020-01561-0 Operationalizing Counter Threat Finance Strategies can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-000-01131-1

Parameters

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 156 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (327 download)

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Book Synopsis Parameters by :

Download or read book Parameters written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Playing to Your Strengths

Author : Tim Sweijs
Publisher : The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
ISBN 13 : 949210265X
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (921 download)

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Book Synopsis Playing to Your Strengths by : Tim Sweijs

Download or read book Playing to Your Strengths written by Tim Sweijs and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report contains the results from a research project aimed at identifying new capabilities for the future RNLA. Rather than sketch a full future force profile, it concentrates on promising new, or to be renewed capabilities.

Improving Decisionmaking in a Turbulent World

Author : Charles P. Ries
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 083309453X
Total Pages : 69 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Improving Decisionmaking in a Turbulent World by : Charles P. Ries

Download or read book Improving Decisionmaking in a Turbulent World written by Charles P. Ries and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every president needs a decisionmaking system that harnesses the full capabilities and accumulated wisdom of the U.S. government and the nation’s many stakeholders. This Perspective analyzes a range of management challenges in the national security system and presents recommendations for strengthening U.S. decisionmaking and oversight of policy implementation.

The Art of Intelligence

Author : William J. Lahneman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1442228989
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (422 download)

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Book Synopsis The Art of Intelligence by : William J. Lahneman

Download or read book The Art of Intelligence written by William J. Lahneman and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2014-03-13 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the 9/11 attacks, the number of intelligence courses and related curricula have soared. Many instructors look for interactive learning tools because they add immeasurable value to the student’s understanding of the intelligence enterprise. Such tools, however, take time and effort to develop and are not circulated among faculty. This is the first textbook to offer in one volume original simulations, exercises, and games designed by academics and intelligence professionals from several countries. These innovative methods are meant to enhance the learning experience and provide an international perspective to the topics and approaches discussed in class. Intelligence simulations and games are presented in ready-to run formats, from easy instructions to result recordings matrices, to minimize preparation time for both instructors and students. Exercises, such as cyber attack simulation, information sharing, ethical scenarios and more, expose the student to the many subtle aspects of the intelligence enterprise through active role-playing in simulations and game exercises. The cases cover a wide range of key analytical issues and contexts with an international focus for an innovative text that will suit intelligence training courses at all levels.