Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing?

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Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833041355
Total Pages : 142 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? by : Obaid Younossi

Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? written by Obaid Younossi and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.

Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs by :

Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing? A Quantitative Assessment of Completed and Ongoing Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in DoD acquisition programs has been a long-standing concern of senior policymakers and members of Congress. In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in this growth. Some changes involve reforms to the acquisition process, while others entail legislation. The RAND Corporation has a long history of studying cost growth in defense acquisition, with research reaching back to the 1950s.

Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs

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Author :
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833039253
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by : Mark V. Arena

Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by Mark V. Arena and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.

Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth

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Author :
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833042890
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (33 download)

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Book Synopsis Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth by : Joseph George Bolten

Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.

Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs by :

Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The report complements another document from this project, "Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems," and includes a literature review of cost growth studies and a more extensive analysis of the historical cost growth in acquisition programs than appears in the companion report. Overall, most of the studies reviewed reported that actual costs were greater than estimates of baseline costs. The most common metric used to measure cost growth is the cost growth factor (CGF), which is defined as the ratio of the actual cost to the estimated costs. A CGF of less than 1.0 indicates that the estimate was higher than the actual cost -- an underrun. When the CGF exceeds 1.0, the actual costs were higher than the estimate -- an overrun. Studies of weapon system cost growth have mainly relied on data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). These reports are prepared annually by all major defense acquisition program (MDAP) offices within the military services to provide the U.S. Congress with cost, schedule, and performance status. The comparison baseline (estimate) typically corresponds to a major acquisition decision milestone. Prior studies have reported Milestone (MS) II CGFs for development costs ranging from 1.16 to 2.26; estimates of procurement CGFs ranging from 1.16 to 1.65; and total program CGFs ranging from 1.20 to 1.54. Regarding the differences among cost growth due to service, weapon, and time period, prior studies tended to find the following: Army weapon systems had higher cost growth than did weapon systems for the Air Force or Navy; cost growth differs by equipment type; and cost growth has declined from the 1960s and 1970s, after it was recognized as an important problem.

An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 97 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (227 download)

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Book Synopsis An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth by :

Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.

Is the Ratio of Investment between Research and Development to Production in Major Defense Acquisition Programs Experiencing Fundamental Change?

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Author :
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1538140225
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (381 download)

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Book Synopsis Is the Ratio of Investment between Research and Development to Production in Major Defense Acquisition Programs Experiencing Fundamental Change? by : Rhys McCormick

Download or read book Is the Ratio of Investment between Research and Development to Production in Major Defense Acquisition Programs Experiencing Fundamental Change? written by Rhys McCormick and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2021-06-17 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the advent of the information age, both commercial industry and the Department of Defense are moving towards complex R&D-intensive systems over the simpler, mass-produced systems of the industrial age. This CSIS report analyzes the historical trends in the relationship of production costs to development costs in complex acquisition programs. To understand this phenomenon, the study team examines it at two different levels. The first is the macro investment level where portfolio management trade-offs are made between aggregate development and procurement and between programs. The second level is individual programs where the ambitions of the program and the underlying technology shape the resources required for a program to complete development.

Tools to Prevent Defense Department Cost Overruns

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Tools to Prevent Defense Department Cost Overruns by : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Subcommittee on Federal Financial Management, Government Information, Federal Services, and International Security

Download or read book Tools to Prevent Defense Department Cost Overruns written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Subcommittee on Federal Financial Management, Government Information, Federal Services, and International Security and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Cost Growth in Weapon Systems

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Cost Growth in Weapon Systems by : Neil M. Singer

Download or read book Cost Growth in Weapon Systems written by Neil M. Singer and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Long-Term Implications of the Department of Defense's Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Submission

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Author :
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437924352
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)

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Book Synopsis Long-Term Implications of the Department of Defense's Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Submission by : Matthew S. Goldberg

Download or read book Long-Term Implications of the Department of Defense's Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Submission written by Matthew S. Goldberg and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-11 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This testimony is an analyses of DoD¿s budget requests and preliminary projections for FY 2011 through 2028. Those projections are based in part on the President¿s 2010 budget request and budget justification materials the Admin. provided to the Congress with that request. Among the other sources consulted to supplement this analysis were DoD press releases and briefing materials and the Sec. of Defense¿s announcement in April 2009 of changes to the nation¿s defense plans. The long-term demand for defense resources could be larger than the auditor¿s base projections. The auditor estimates that supporting the number of deployed service members would require recurring annual appropriations of about $20 billion in 2010 dollars. Illus.

Resourcing the National Defense Strategy

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis Resourcing the National Defense Strategy by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services

Download or read book Resourcing the National Defense Strategy written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Armed Services and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Military Cost-Benefit Analysis

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Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 131753171X
Total Pages : 325 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (175 download)

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Book Synopsis Military Cost-Benefit Analysis by : Francois Melese

Download or read book Military Cost-Benefit Analysis written by Francois Melese and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-27 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive book on Military Cost-Benefit Analysis and provides novel approaches to structuring cost-benefit and affordability analysis amidst an uncertain defense environment and cloudy fiscal prospects. Lifting the veil on military Cost-Benefit Analysis, this volume offers several new practical tools designed to guide defense investments (and divestments), combined with a selection of real-world applications. The widespread employment of Cost-Benefit Analysis offers a unique opportunity to transform legacy defense forces into efficient, effective, and accountable 21st century organizations. A synthesis of economics, statistics and decision theory, CBA is currently used in a wide range of defense applications in countries around the world: i) to shape national security strategy, ii) to set acquisition policy, and iii) to inform critical investments in people, equipment, infrastructure, services and supplies. As sovereign debt challenges squeeze national budgets, and emerging threats disrupt traditional notions of security, this volume offers valuable tools to navigate the political landscape, meet calls for fiscal accountability, and boost the effectiveness of defense investments to help guarantee future peace and stability. A valuable resource for scholars, practitioners, novices and experts, this book offers a comprehensive overview of Military Cost-Benefit Analysis and will appeal to anyone interested or involved in improving national security, and will also be of general interest to those responsible for major government programs, projects or policies.

Taking the High Ground

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Author :
Publisher : The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
ISBN 13 : 9491040804
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Taking the High Ground by : Peter Wijninga

Download or read book Taking the High Ground written by Peter Wijninga and published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. This book was released on 2013-04-26 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Royal Netherlands Air Force should invest in a mix of weapons systems to facilitate joint operations. Observation and prolonged surveillance is becoming an important task. Strategic cooperation with R&D institutes and the aerospace industry is crucial. The importance of air power lies in creating conditions for successful performance of sea, land, and air forces. Observation and prolonged surveillance will become a main task of the Air Force. Rapid technological developments in the use of unmanned systems and space resources are making this increasingly feasible and affordable.

Averting Crisis: American Strategy, Military Spending and Collective Defence in the Indo-Pacific

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Publisher : United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney
ISBN 13 : 1742104738
Total Pages : 104 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (421 download)

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Book Synopsis Averting Crisis: American Strategy, Military Spending and Collective Defence in the Indo-Pacific by : Ashley Townshend

Download or read book Averting Crisis: American Strategy, Military Spending and Collective Defence in the Indo-Pacific written by Ashley Townshend and published by United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. This book was released on 2019-08-19 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: America no longer enjoys military primacy in the Indo-Pacific and its capacity to uphold a favourable balance of power is increasingly uncertain. The combined effect of ongoing wars in the Middle East, budget austerity, underinvestment in advanced military capabilities and the scale of America’s liberal order-building agenda has left the US armed forces ill-prepared for great power competition in the Indo-Pacific. America’s 2018 National Defense Strategy aims to address this crisis of strategic insolvency by tasking the Joint Force to prepare for one great power war, rather than multiple smaller conflicts, and urging the military to prioritise requirements for deterrence vis-à-vis China. Chinese counter-intervention systems have undermined America’s ability to project power into the Indo-Pacific, raising the risk that China could use limited force to achieve a fait accompli victory before America can respond; and challenging US security guarantees in the process. For America, denying this kind of aggression places a premium on advanced military assets, enhanced posture arrangements, new operational concepts and other costly changes. While the Pentagon is trying to focus on these challenges, an outdated superpower mindset in the foreign policy establishment is likely to limit Washington’s ability to scale back other global commitments or make the strategic trade-offs required to succeed in the Indo-Pacific. Over the next decade, the US defence budget is unlikely to meet the needs of the National Defense Strategy owing to a combination of political, fiscal and internal pressures. The US defence budget has been subjected to nearly a decade of delayed and unpredictable funding. Repeated failures by Congress to pass regular and sustained budgets has hindered the Pentagon’s ability to effectively allocate resources and plan over the long term. Growing partisanship and ideological polarisation — within and between both major parties in Congress — will make consensus on federal spending priorities hard to achieve. Lawmakers are likely to continue reaching political compromises over America’s national defence at the expense of its strategic objectives. America faces growing deficits and rising levels of public debt; and political action to rectify these challenges has so far been sluggish. If current trends persist, a shrinking portion of the federal budget will be available for defence, constraining budget top lines into the future. Above-inflation growth in key accounts within the defence budget — such as operations and maintenance — will leave the Pentagon with fewer resources to grow the military and acquire new weapons systems. Every year it becomes more expensive to maintain the same sized military. America has an atrophying force that is not sufficiently ready, equipped or postured for great power competition in the Indo-Pacific — a challenge it is working hard to address. Twenty years of near-continuous combat and budget instability has eroded the readiness of key elements in the US Air Force, Navy, Army and Marine Corps. Military accidents have risen, aging equipment is being used beyond its lifespan and training has been cut. Some readiness levels across the Joint Force are improving, but structural challenges remain. Military platforms built in the 1980s are becoming harder and more costly to maintain; while many systems designed for great power conflict were curtailed in the 2000s to make way for the force requirements of Middle Eastern wars — leading to stretched capacity and overuse. The military is beginning to field and experiment with next-generation capabilities. But the deferment or cancellation of new weapons programs over the last few decades has created a backlog of simultaneous modernisation priorities that will likely outstrip budget capacity. Many US and allied operating bases in the Indo-Pacific are exposed to possible Chinese missile attack and lack hardened infrastructure. Forward deployed munitions and supplies are not set to wartime requirements and, concerningly, America’s logistics capability has steeply declined. New operational concepts and novel capabilities are being tested in the Indo-Pacific with an eye towards denying and blunting Chinese aggression. Some services, like the Marine Corps, plan extensive reforms away from counterinsurgency and towards sea control and denial. A strategy of collective defence is fast becoming necessary as a way of offsetting shortfalls in America’s regional military power and holding the line against rising Chinese strength. To advance this approach, Australia should: Pursue capability aggregation and collective deterrence with capable regional allies and partners, including the United States and Japan. Reform US-Australia alliance coordination mechanisms to focus on strengthening regional deterrence objectives. Rebalance Australian defence resources from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. Establish new, and expand existing, high-end military exercises with allies and partners to develop and demonstrate new operational concepts for Indo-Pacific contingencies. Acquire robust land-based strike and denial capabilities. Improve regional posture, infrastructure and networked logistics, including in northern Australia. Increase stockpiles and create sovereign capabilities in the storage and production of precision munitions, fuel and other materiel necessary for sustained high-end conflict. Establish an Indo-Pacific Security Workshop to drive US-allied joint operational concept development. Advance joint experimental research and development projects aimed at improving the cost-capability curve.

Optimizing U.S. Air Force and Department of Defense Review of Air Force Acquisition Programs

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Author :
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030913918X
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Optimizing U.S. Air Force and Department of Defense Review of Air Force Acquisition Programs by : National Research Council

Download or read book Optimizing U.S. Air Force and Department of Defense Review of Air Force Acquisition Programs written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-07-29 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Department of Defense (DOD) spends over $300 billion each year to develop, produce, field and sustain weapons systems (the U.S. Air Force over $100 billion per year). DOD and Air Force acquisitions programs often experience large cost overruns and schedule delays leading to a loss in confidence in the defense acquisition system and the people who work in it. Part of the DOD and Air Force response to these problems has been to increase the number of program and technical reviews that acquisition programs must undergo. This book looks specifically at the reviews that U.S. Air Force acquisition programs are required to undergo and poses a key question: Can changes in the number, content, or sequence of reviews help Air Force program managers more successfully execute their programs? This book concludes that, unless they do it better than they are now, Air Force and DOD attempts to address poor acquisition program performance with additional reviews will fail. This book makes five recommendations that together form a gold standard for conduct of reviews and if implemented and rigorously managed by Air Force and DOD acquisition executives can increase review effectiveness and efficiency. The bottom line is to help program managers successfully execute their programs.

An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (227 download)

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Book Synopsis An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth by :

Download or read book An Analysis of Weapon System Cost Growth written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cost growth in weapon system development, one result of the inherent risk of developing advanced systems, has been a prevalent problem for many years. A systematic bias in cost estimates can undermine the basis of resource allocation decisions, an important problem in a tight budget environment. Currently DoD is in this situation. This exploratory research attempts to gain new insight into this old acquisition issue. In particular, our objectives were to quantify the magnitude of cost growth in weapon systems, and identify factors affecting cost growth. A better understanding of the scope of the cost growth problem would provide decisionmakers with an improved basis for mitigating cost growth. Insight into the drivers of cost growth might suggest policy alternatives appropriate to the goal of mitigating cost growth. This research uses a database composed of 197 major weapon systems reporting through the Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) process as of December 1990 to address these issues. While we have quantified the magnitude of weapon system cost growth along a number of dimensions, we could not definitively account for the observed cost growth patterns. Thus, no silver bullet policy option is available for mitigating cost growth.

Defense Acquisitions

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Author :
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437914691
Total Pages : 190 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (379 download)

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Book Synopsis Defense Acquisitions by : Gene L. Dodaro

Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Gene L. Dodaro and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report examines how well DoD is planning and executing its weapon acquisition programs. The report includes: (1) an analysis of the overall performance of DoD's 2008 portfolio of 96 major defense acquisition programs and a comparison to the portfolio performance at two other points in time -- 5 years ago and 1 year ago; (2) an analysis of current cost and schedule outcomes and knowledge attained by key junctures in the acquisition process for a subset of 47 weapon programs -- primarily in development -- from the 2008 portfolio; (3) data on other factors that could impact program stability; and (4) an update on changes in DoD's acquisition policies. Includes a one- or two-page assessment of 67 weapon programs. Illustrations.