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Author : Daniele Valenti
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Interpreting the Oil Risk Premium written by Daniele Valenti and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Hongbo Liao
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (864 download)
Download or read book Risk Premium on Crude Oil Futures Prices written by Hongbo Liao and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Reinhard Ellwanger
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (11 download)
Download or read book On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market written by Reinhard Ellwanger and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : James Douglas Hamilton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices written by James Douglas Hamilton and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If commercial producers or financial investors use futures contracts to hedge against commodity price risk, the arbitrageurs who take the other side of the contracts may receive compensation for their assumption of nondiversifiable risk in the form of positive expected returns from their positions. We show that this interaction can produce an affine factor structure to commodity futures prices, and develop new algorithms for estimation of such models using unbalanced data sets in which the duration of observed contracts changes with each observation. We document significant changes in oil futures risk premia since 2005, with the compensation to the long position smaller on average in more recent data. This observation is consistent with the claim that index-fund investing has become more important relative to commerical hedging in determining the structure of crude oil futures risk premia over time.
Author : Georges Prat
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Modeling Ex-Ante Risk Premiums in the Oil Market written by Georges Prat and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using survey-based monthly data over thirty years, we show that oil price expectations for 3- and 12-month horizons are not rational implying that the ex-ante oil risk premium is a more relevant concept for decision making than the widely popular ex-post premium. Using a portfolio choice model framework, we derive each risk premium as a product of the price of risk and the expected volatility of oil return, these two components being time varying and horizon-dependent. A state-space model of risk premiums, where the risk prices are represented as stochastic unobservable components and where expected variances are proxied as weighted averages of past instantaneous variances, is estimated using Kalman filtering. We find that our model adequately represents the ex-ante oil risk premiums dynamics, from which the representative investor appears to be mostly risk seeking at short horizons and mostly risk averse at longer horizons. A state-dependent interpretation of our risk premium patterns shows consistency with the predictions of the prospect theory. We also show that our risk prices are correlated with a number of economic and oil market-related factors, and find that an upward sloped term structure of oil risk premiums prevails in average over the period.
Author : Qixiang Gao
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)
Download or read book Market Attitudes Under Uncertainty written by Qixiang Gao and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the predictability of volatility risk premia in WTI crude oil futures markets under an uncertain environment. I find that a nontrivial fraction of the magnitude and the direction of the volatility risk premium can be explained by the unforeseeable fluctuations in macroeconomic and financial indicators. Although the previous literature has shown that most of the risk factors (for example, book-to-market ratio and momentum) used in capital asset pricing models are not responsible for variations in the volatility risk premium, I find evidence that the effects of some of the indicators like open interest momentum and growth rate of market interest could be enhanced when taking uncertainty into consideration. The effects of market participants' behaviors and risk attitudes are strongly correlated with uncertainty, and the cost of hedging against futures price variance will increase if uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment is high.
Author : Patrizio Pagano
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (411 download)
Download or read book Risk-adjusted forecasts of oil prices written by Patrizio Pagano and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Craig Pirrong
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book The Fundamental, Speculative and Macroeconomic Determinants of Variance and Skew Risk Premia in Oil Market written by Craig Pirrong and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using the model-independent approaches of Trolle and Schwartz (2008) and Kozhan et al (2013), we estimate the Variance Risk Premium and Skew Risk Premium for oil market. After estimation, the contribution of the paper is twofold. First, we try to figure out which variables can describe the variation in variance and skew risk premium and the risk-neutral Skewness. The results show that we are able to describe a considerable portion of the variation in all three variables using speculative and macroeconomic factors and most of the variation is being described by by the latter group of variables. We also try to capture the effect of fundamentals of oil market on these variables. The results show that the fundamentals are able to describe big portion of variation in these three variables. Second, we try to predict the return of delta-hedged and delta-vega hedged option portfolios and also oil futures return. The results show that variance risk premium is a significant predictor of delta-hedged portfolio cumulative return with a positive sign while skew risk premium can describe the cumulative return of the delta-Vega Hedged portfolio with negative sign. The results also show that both variance and skew risk premia are significant predictors of cumulative futures return with different signs.
Author : Roger Fouquet
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0857933698
Total Pages : 753 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (579 download)
Download or read book Handbook on Energy and Climate Change written by Roger Fouquet and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 753 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ÔSome of us have spent our professional lives on energy and climate change but any new researcher or policy maker must find it daunting to even approach the subject. If so, this encyclopedic Handbook provides a wonderful and necessary introduction. It is creative and up to date, yet also takes the reader by the hand and introduces one topic after another while also providing much of the historical context that is so necessary to a deeper understanding.Õ Ð Thomas Sterner, Environmental Defense Fund This timely Handbook reviews many key issues in the economics of energy and climate change, raising new questions and offering solutions that might help to minimize the threat of energy-induced climate change. Constructed around the objectives of displaying some of the best of current thinking in the economics of energy and climate change, this groundbreaking volume brings together many of the worldÕs leading and most innovative minds in the field to cover issues related to: ¥ fossil fuel and electricity markets ¥ environment-related energy policy ¥ international climate agreements ¥ carbon mitigation policies ¥ low carbon behaviour, growth and governance. Serving as an indispensable guide to one of the fastest growing fields of economics, this invaluable resource will strongly appeal to students, academics and policy makers interested in energy, environmental and climate change issues.
Author : Bassam Fattouh
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781907555442
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (554 download)
Download or read book The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Hilary Till
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781904339632
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (396 download)
Download or read book Intelligent Commodity Investing written by Hilary Till and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the only multi-contributor book on commodity investment offering a breadth of opinions for sophisticated investors. It looks at commodity investment from the following perspectives: the investor, the active manager, the commodity index provider, the risk manager, and the researcher. In response to the rapid growth in the market, this timely publication will bring you up to speed on the trends and challenges of commodity investment, providing you with a practical investment framework. It is a recommended reading for hedge fund managers, pension fund consultants, mutual fund portfolio managers, endowment chief investment officers, futures traders, family office investors, commodity trading advisers, brokers, dealers and MBA students researching this important subject.
Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498333486
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author : Morris Albert Adelman
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262011389
Total Pages : 588 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (113 download)
Download or read book The Economics of Petroleum Supply written by Morris Albert Adelman and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together his work, written over the past thirty years, on mineral depletion and the nature of monopoly in world oil.
Author : George Xianzhi Yuan
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9811223211
Total Pages : 274 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (112 download)
Download or read book Cme Vulnerability, The: The Impact Of Negative Oil Futures Trading written by George Xianzhi Yuan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-10-23 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2020, the global lockdowns caused by the COVID-19, or coronavirus, pandemic had resulted in a sharp drop in demand for crude oil. This impact was so severe that on April 8, 2020, a proposal to update the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (CME) trading rule to permit negative prices was applied to CME's WTI Oil futures contracts; this led to a novel phenomenon in which the closing clearing price of WTI Oil May future was $-37.63/barrel based on fewer than 400 contracts' trading volume in the last three minutes, reflecting less than 0.2% of the total trading contracts volume on April 20, 2020. This occurrence of negative closing clearing price for CME's WTI Oil futures trading, cannot be explained simply by just the principle of supply and demand; instead, it highlights vulnerabilities caused by CME's allowance of negative price trading (based on its trading platform), a decision which brings potential and fundamental challenges to the global financial system.This event challenges not just our basic concepts of 'value' and trading 'price' of commodities and goods that underline our understanding of the framework for the invisible hand and general equilibrium theory in economics established by a few generations of scholars since Adam Smith in 1776 for market economies, but also have wider implications on the fundamentals that underpin our ideas of value and labor in the organization, activity, and behavior of civilizations and individual liberties.The scope of this book is limited to covering the impact of the negative oil futures derivatives' trading between April 20 and 21, 2020. This book focuses on exploring the issues, challenges, and possible impacts on global financial markets due to the negative clearing prices of WTI Oil futures contracts and related problems from different perspectives. Topics covered include the responsibilities and liabilities of the CME; critique to the fundamental theory of economics and the modern understanding of value and labor; and challenges to the global financial systems and businesses and introduction to new methods of application.
Author : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226260216
Total Pages : 428 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)
Download or read book The Internationalization of Equity Markets written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume addresses three important recent trends in the internationalization of United States equity markets: extensive market integration through foreign investment and links among stock prices around the world; increasing securitization as countries such as Japan come to rely more than ever before on markets in equities and bonds at the expense of banks; and the opening of national financial systems of newly industrializing countries to international financial flows and institutions, as governments remove capital controls and other barriers. Eight essays examine such issues as the current extent of international market integration, gains to U.S. investors through international diversification, home-country bias in investing, the role of time and location around the world in stock trading, and the behavior of country funds. Other, long-standing questions about equity markets are also addressed, including market efficiency and the accuracy of models of expected returns, with a particular focus on variances, covariances, and the price of risk according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356154
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author : William N. Goetzmann
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199881979
Total Pages : 568 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (998 download)
Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.
