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International Commodity Price Shocks Democracy And External Debt
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Book Synopsis International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the effects that international commodity price shocks have on external debt using panel data for a world sample of 93 countries spanning the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies, but to no significant reduction in the level of external debt in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that positive commodity price shocks lead to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in total government expenditures in autocracies. In democracies on the other hand government expenditures did not increase significantly. We also document that following positive windfalls from international commodity price shocks the risk of default on external debt decreased in democracies, but increased significantly in autocracies.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis This Time Is Different by : Carmen M. Reinhart
Download or read book This Time Is Different written by Carmen M. Reinhart and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-07 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility by : Mr.Tidiane Kinda
Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility written by Mr.Tidiane Kinda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and developing economies, it shows that negative shocks to commodity prices tend to weaken the financial sector, with larger shocks having more pronounced impacts. More specifically, negative commodity price shocks are associated with higher non-performing loans, bank costs and banking crises, while they reduce bank profits, liquidity, and provisions to nonperforming loans. These adverse effects tend to occur in countries with poor quality of governance, weak fiscal space, as well as those that do not have a sovereign wealth fund, do not implement macro-prudential policies and do not have a diversified export base. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks.
Book Synopsis Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America by : Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
Download or read book Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America written by Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-26 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.
Book Synopsis Beyond the Resource Curse by : Brenda Shaffer
Download or read book Beyond the Resource Curse written by Brenda Shaffer and published by University of Pennsylvania Press. This book was released on 2011-12-30 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When countries discover that they possess large deposits of oil and natural gas, the news is usually welcome. Yet, paradoxically, if they rely on their wealth of natural resources, they often set down a path of poor economic performance and governance challenges. Only a few resource-rich countries have managed to develop their economies fully and provide a better and sustainable standard of living for large segments of their populations. This phenomenon, known as the resource curse, is a core challenge for energy-exporting states. Beyond the Resource Curse focuses on this relationship between natural wealth and economic security, discussing the particular pitfalls and consistent perils facing oil- and gas-exporting states. The contributors to this volume look beyond the standard fields of research related to the resource curse. They also shed new light on the specific developmental problems of resource-rich exporting states around the globe, including Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cambodia, East Timor, Iran, Norway, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. Policy makers and academics think of energy security solely in terms of the interests of energy importers. Beyond the Resource Curse shows that the constant volatility in energy markets creates energy security challenges for exporters as well.
Book Synopsis Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between real exchange rate and commodity price movement during busts. We test our model's theoretical predictions and underlying assumptions using panel data for 32 oil-producing countries over the period 1992 to 2009. Results are threefold. First, we find that change in current spending have a stronger impact on the change in real exchange rate compared to capital spending. Second, we find that current spending is downwardly sticky, but increases in boom time, and conversely for capital spending. Third, we find limited evidence that fiscal rules have helped reduce the degree of responsiveness of current spending during booms. In contrast, we find evidence that fiscal rules are associated with a significant reduction in capital expenditure during busts while responsiveness to boosts is more muted. This raises concerns about potential adverse consequences of this asymmetry on economic performance in oil-producing countries.
Book Synopsis Why Does Development Fail in Resource Rich Economies by : Elissaios Papyrakis
Download or read book Why Does Development Fail in Resource Rich Economies written by Elissaios Papyrakis and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-05-17 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been a lot of interest within the scientific and policy communities in the ‘resource curse’; that is, the tendency of mineral rich economies to turn into development failures. Yet, after more than 20 years of intensive research and action, ‘the curse’ still lingers as a very real global problem, because of volatile mineral prices, bad governance and conflict. This book incorporates current original research on the resource curse (from some of the most prominent contributors to this literature), combined with a critical reflection on the current stock of knowledge. It is a unique attempt to provide a more holistic and interdisciplinary picture of the resource curse and its multi-scale effects. This edited volume reflects the current academic diversity that characterises the resource curse literature with a mix of different methodological approaches (both quantitative and qualitative analyses) and a diverse geographical focus (Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, global). Taken together the studies emphasize the complexities and conditionalities of the ‘curse’ – its presence/intensity being largely context-specific, depending on the type of resources, socio-political institutions and linkages with the rest of the economy and society. This book was originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Development Studies.
Book Synopsis Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices by : Rigoberto Ariel Yépez-García
Download or read book Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices written by Rigoberto Ariel Yépez-García and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-07-10 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses the need of oil-importing countries to mitigate vulnerability to oil price volatility. It offers financial instruments to manage price risk, complemented by structural measures designed to reduce oil consumption.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498398588 Total Pages :230 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.
Book Synopsis Resource Windfalls, Optimal Public Investment and Redistribution by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Resource Windfalls, Optimal Public Investment and Redistribution written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the optimal public investment decisions in countries experiencing a resource windfall. To do so, we use an augmented version of the Permanent Income framework with public investment faced with adjustment costs capturing the associated administrative capacity as well as government direct transfers. A key assumption is that those adjustment costs rise with the size of the resource windfall. The main results from the analytical model are threefold. First, a larger resource windfall commands a lower level of public capital but a higher level of redistribution through transfers. Second, weaker administrative capacity lowers the increase in optimal public capital following a resource windfall. Third, higher total factor productivity in the non-resource sector reduces the degree of des-investment in public capital commanded by weaker administrative capacity. We further extend our basic model to allow for "investing in investing" - that is public investment in administrative capacity - by endogenizing the adjustment cost in public investment. Results from the numerical simulations suggest, among other things, that a higher initial stock of public administrative "know how" leads to a higher level of optimal public investment following a resource windfall. Implications for policy are discussed.
Book Synopsis Governing Natural Resources for Africa’s Development by : Hany Besada
Download or read book Governing Natural Resources for Africa’s Development written by Hany Besada and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-09-13 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bringing together some of the world’s leading thinkers and policy experts in the area of natural resource governance and management in Africa, this volume addresses the most critical policy issues affecting the continent’s ability to manage and govern its precious resources. The narrative of the book is solutions-driven, as experts weigh on specific issues within the context of Africa’s natural resource governance and offer appropriate policy recommendations on how to best manage the continent’s resources. This is a must-read for government policy makers in industrialized economies and, more importantly, in Africa and emerging economies, as well as for academic researchers working in the field, extractive companies operating on the continent, extractive industry and trade associations, and multilateral and donor aid institutions.
Book Synopsis Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Mr.Paulo Drummond
Download or read book Mobilizing Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Mr.Paulo Drummond and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mobilizing more revenue is a priority for sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Countries have to finance their development agendas, and weak revenue mobilization is the root cause of fiscal imbalances in several countries. This paper reviews the experience of low-income SSA countries in mobilizing revenue in recent decades, with two broad aims: identify empirical norms of how much and how fast countries have been able to mobilize more revenue and empirical determinants (panel estimates) of revenue mobilization. The paper finds that (i) the frequency distribution of changes in revenue ratios for SSA low-income countries (LICs) peaks at a pace of about 1⁄2-2 percentage points of GDP in the short-to-medium term and at a pace of about 2-31⁄2 percentage points of GDP over the longer term, and that (ii) almost all SSA-LICs managed to increase revenue ratios by more than 2 percentage points of GDP in the short-to-medium term, at least once in the last two decades. The sustainability of large increases in revenue ratios can be an issue, in particular for fragile countries. The panel estimates suggest that structural factors, such as per capita GDP, share of agriculture in GDP, inflation, degree of openness, and rents received from natural resources, are important determinants of tax revenue.
Book Synopsis Natural Resources, Democracy and Corruption by : Sambit Bhattacharyya
Download or read book Natural Resources, Democracy and Corruption written by Sambit Bhattacharyya and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study how natural resources can feed corruption and how this effect depends on the quality of the democratic institutions. Our game-theoretic model predicts that natural resources lead to an increase in corruption if the quality of the democratic institutions is relatively poor, but not otherwise. We use panel data covering the period 1980 to 2004 and 99 countries to test this theoretical prediction. Our estimates confirm that the relationship between resource abundance and corruption depends on the quality of the democratic institutions. In particular, resource abundance is positively associated with corruption only in countries that have endured a nondemocratic regime for more than 60 percent of the years since 1956. Our main results hold when we control for the effects of income, time varying common shocks, regional fixed effects and various additional covariates. They are also robust to various alternative measures of natural resources, corruption and the quality of the democratic institutions. These findings imply that democratization can be a powerful tool to reduce corruption in resource-rich countries.
Book Synopsis The Paradox of Violence in Venezuela by : David Smilde
Download or read book The Paradox of Violence in Venezuela written by David Smilde and published by University of Pittsburgh Press. This book was released on 2023-05-30 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Crime and violence soared in twenty-first-century Venezuela even as poverty and inequality decreased, contradicting the conventional wisdom that these are the underlying causes of violence. The Paradox of Violence in Venezuela explains the rise of violence under both Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro—leftist presidents who made considerable investment in social programs and political inclusion. Contributors argue that violence arose not from the frustration of inequality, or the needs created by poverty, but rather from the interrelated factors of a particular type of revolutionary governance, extraordinary oil revenues, a reliance on militarized policing, and the persistence of concentrated disadvantage. These factors led to dramatic but unequal economic growth, massive institutional and social change, and dysfunctional criminal justice policies that destabilized illicit markets and social networks, leading to an increase in violent conflict resolution. The Paradox of Violence in Venezuela reorients thinking about violence and its relationship to poverty, inequality, and the state.
Book Synopsis The Economics of World War I by : Stephen Broadberry
Download or read book The Economics of World War I written by Stephen Broadberry and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.
