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Author : Stilianos Fountas
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (873 download)
Download or read book Inflation, Output Growth, and Nominal and Real Uncertainty written by Stilianos Fountas and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Dynamics of Inflation, Output Growth and Their Uncertainty in the UK written by Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this paper is to analyse the dynamics relationships between inflation, output growth, and real and nominal uncertainty using the VARFIMA-BEKK MGARCH model of inflation and output growth and quarterly data for the UK covering the 1957:Q2-2006:Q4 period. The analysis is also done for the three sub-periods determined by considering the structural changes such as the Great Moderation in the series of the UK. Two findings are obtained. First, the evidence obtained from the full period supports a number of important conclusions, one of which is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty, another one being strong evidence regarding the positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Taking this into account, it is possible to put forward that an essential determinant of economic growth is uncertainty about the inflation rate. The last finding for this period is that output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the inflation and output growth rate. Second, the evidence found from the sub-periods is that there are no linkages between inflation, output growth and their volatility.
Author : Stilianos Fountas
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance written by Stilianos Fountas and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of inflation and output growth to examine the causality relationship among nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance measured by the inflation and output growth rates. The application of the constant conditional correlation GARCH(1,1) model leads to a number of interesting conclusions. First, inflation does cause negative welfare effects, both directly and indirectly, i.e. via the inflation uncertainty channel. Secondly, in some countries, more inflation uncertainty provides an incentive to Central Banks to surprise the public by raising inflation unexpectedly. Thirdly, in contrast to the assumptions of some macroeconomic models, business cycle variability and the rate of economic growth are related. More variability in the business cycle leads to more output growth.
Author : Muhammad Khan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (123 download)
Download or read book Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance : Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe written by Muhammad Khan and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Francesco Grigoli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498393454
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-23 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Author : Seungjun Lee
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 284 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (348 download)
Download or read book Money Growth Uncertainty, Inflation Uncertainty and Real Output Growth written by Seungjun Lee and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stilianos Fountas
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (594 download)
Download or read book Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty and Their Relationship with Inflation and Output Growth written by Stilianos Fountas and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Christian Conrad
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Modeling the Link Between US Inflation and Output written by Christian Conrad and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper employs an augmented version of the UECCC GARCH specification proposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2010) which allows for lagged in-mean effects, level effects as well as asymmetries in the conditional variances. In this unified framework we examine the twelve potential intertemporal relationships between inflation, growth and their respective uncertainties using US data. We find that high inflation is detrimental to output growth both directly and indirectly via the nominal uncertainty. Output growth boosts inflation but mainly indirectly through a reduction in real uncertainty. Our findings highlight how macroeconomic performance affects nominal and real uncertainty in many ways and that the bidirectional relation between inflation and growth works to a large extent indirectly via the uncertainty channel.
Author : Eliphas Ndou
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030198030
Total Pages : 507 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Inequality, Output-Inflation Trade-Off and Economic Policy Uncertainty written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 507 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on income inequality, output-inflation trade-off and economic policy uncertainty in South Africa. Tight monetary and macroprudential policies raise income inequality. Income inequality transmits monetary policy and macroprudential policy shocks to real economic activity. Economic policy uncertainty influences the dynamics in the lending rate margins, inflation expectations, credit, pass-through of the repo rate to bank lending rates and companies’ cash holdings. The trade-off between output and inflation and output growth persistence vary with inflation regimes. Stimulatory demand policy shocks are less effective in high inflation regime. High income inequality raises consumption inequality, which raises demand for credit, but price stability matters in this link. Increased bank concentration raises income inequality, lowers economic growth and employment rate. Elevated economic policy uncertainty lowers output growth, lowers capital formation, reduces credit and raises companies’ cash holdings. Increased companies’ cash holdings reduce capital formation and impact the transmission of expansionary monetary policy shocks to real economic activity. This book shows there is an inflation level within the target band below it which lowers income inequality, while raising GDP growth and employment. Thus price stability, economic policy uncertainty and income inequality matter for the efficient transmission of policy shocks.
Author : Stilianos Fountas
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 8 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (487 download)
Download or read book Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty and Their Relatonship with Inflation and Output Growth written by Stilianos Fountas and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Maritta Paloviita
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty in Individual Survey Expectations written by Maritta Paloviita and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts and the median values of individual forecasters' uncertainty, which are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave according to an uncertainty-augmented hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. We also find evidence that inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and lowering the price sensitiveness of aggregate supply.
Author : Victor Gaiduch
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty written by Victor Gaiduch and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-10 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concept of sustainable productive capacity is playing an increasingly important role in monetary policy formulation throughout the world. Specifying price stability as a central objective of monetary policy has contributed to this increased importance. The long lags between policy actions and inflation outcomes mean that indicators of future inflation pressures must be relied on to guide current policy actions that are aimed at achieving price stability. The extent to which an economy's productive resources are being utilized is considered to be a useful indicator of future price pressures. Whether productive resources are defined in terms of the goods market (potential output) or the labor market (trend unemployment), policymakers rely on estimates of these concepts to determine whether current levels of activity can be sustained without generating price pressures. If activity is deemed to be above a sustainable level, policymakers may suspect that upward pressure on inflation will emerge if they do not take actions to moderate activity. Conversely, if current activity is below the sustainable level this may lead policymakers to stimulate activity to avoid future downward pressure on inflation.
Author : Glenn D. Rudebusch
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty written by Glenn D. Rudebusch and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michael P. Clements
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty written by Michael P. Clements and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Sheetal K. Chand
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451856695
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Nominal Income and the Inflation-Growth Divide written by Sheetal K. Chand and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-11-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper deals with aggregate demand fluctuations and their price and output effects. Starting with a nominal income solution, a rule for determining the inflation and output growth effects is presented. Assigning alternative values to the key parameters of the suggested rule generates different closure rules, such as the classical and the Keynesian and their modern counterparts. An application to major industrial country data indicates that the suggested rule is robust. Both inflation and output growth are affected by nominal shocks, but response patterns vary among the countries.
Author : Don Bredin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance written by Don Bredin and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use a very general bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean model and G7 monthly data covering the 1957-2003 period to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in most countries output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the output growth rate. Second, there is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Hence, contrary to popular belief, uncertainty about the inflation rate is not necessarily detrimental to economic growth but in some cases it may also enhance growth. Finally, there is mixed evidence on the effect of output uncertainty on inflation. In sum, our results indicate that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance.
Author : Michael D. Bordo
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226066959
Total Pages : 545 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
