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Inflation Inertia And Credible Disinflation
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Book Synopsis Inflation Inertia and Credible Disinflation by : Guillermo A. Calvo
Download or read book Inflation Inertia and Credible Disinflation written by Guillermo A. Calvo and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a model of inflation inertia based on optimizing forward looking staggered price setting in a small open economy. Unlike in current models of sticky prices, transitions to a lower steady state inflation rate take time even if they are fully credible, and they are associated with significant output losses. There is a welfare trade-off between these output losses and the gains from smaller inflationary distortions. For reasonable parameter values inflation stabilization improves welfare. The optimal steady state is reached at the Friedman rule. Technical appendices are available at www.nber.org/data-appendix/w9557/ inert-techapp.pdf.
Book Synopsis Credibility Dynamics and Disinflation Plans by : Rumen Kostadinov
Download or read book Credibility Dynamics and Disinflation Plans written by Rumen Kostadinov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-05 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the optimal design of a disinflation plan by a planner who lacks commitment. Having announced a plan, the Central banker faces a tradeoff between surprise inflation and building reputation, defined as the private sector's belief that the Central bank is committed to the plan. Some plans are harder to sustain: the planner recognizes that paving out future grounds with temptation leads the way for a negative drift of reputation in equilibrium. Plans that successfully create low inflationary expectations balance promises of lower inflation with dynamic incentives that make them more credible. When announcing the disinflation plan, the planner takes into account these anticipated interactions. We find that, even in the zero reputation limit, a gradual disinflation is preferred despite the absence of inflation inertia in the private economy.
Book Synopsis Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia by : Mr. Michael Kumhof
Download or read book Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia written by Mr. Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a monetary model with nominal rigidities that differs from the conventional New Keynesian model with firms setting pricing policies instead of price levels. In response to permanent or highly persistent monetary policy shocks this model generates the empirically observed slow (inertial) and prolonged (persistent) reaction of the inflation rate, and also the recession that typically accompanies moderate disinflations. The reason is that firms respond to such shocks mostly through a change in the long-run or inflation updating component of their pricing policies. With staggered pricing policies there is a time lag before this is reflected in aggregate inflation.
Book Synopsis Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia by : Luis Felipe Céspedes
Download or read book Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia written by Luis Felipe Céspedes and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Inflation Inertia and Optimal Disinflation by : Carl E. Walsh
Download or read book Inflation Inertia and Optimal Disinflation written by Carl E. Walsh and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Credibility Effects of Price Controls in Disinflation Programs by : Pierre-Richard Agénor
Download or read book Credibility Effects of Price Controls in Disinflation Programs written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-10-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines whether price controls may enhance the credibility of a disinflation program, using a framework in which agents behave strategically. The analysis indicates that a partial price freeze is not fully credible, and may result in inflation inertia. The authorities may be able to determine optimally the intensity of price controls so as to minimize the policy loss associated with a discretionary monetary strategy. But the optimal intensity of controls is shown to be significantly different from zero only if the cost of enforcing price ceilings is not too high, or if the weight attached to price distortions in the policymaker’s loss function is small.
Book Synopsis The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book The Genesis of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation written by Laurence M. Ball and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This essay asks how high inflation arises and why it is costly to eliminate. Specifically, the paper discusses the roles of price rigidity and credibility problems in explaining the costs of disinflation; the puzzle of persistent inflation triggered by onetime macroeconomic shocks; and the case for returning to adaptive expectations in theories of inflation.
Book Synopsis Monetary Disinflation with Inflation Inertia by : J. L. Whitwell
Download or read book Monetary Disinflation with Inflation Inertia written by J. L. Whitwell and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Optimal State-Dependent Rules, Credibility and the Cost of Disinflation by : Marco Bonomo
Download or read book Optimal State-Dependent Rules, Credibility and the Cost of Disinflation written by Marco Bonomo and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the costs of disinflation and the role of credibility in a model where pricing rules are optimal and individual prices are rigid. Individual nominal rigidity is modeled as resulting from menu costs. The interaction between optimal pricing rules and credibility is essential in the determination of the costs of disinflation. A continued period of high inflation generates an asymmetric distribution of price deviations, with more prices that are substantially lower than their desired levels than prices that are substantially overvalued. When disinflation is not credible, inflationary inertia is engendered by this asymmetry: idiosyncratic shocks trigger more upward than downward adjustments. A perfectly credible disinflation causes an immediate change of pricing rules which, by rendering the price deviations distribution less asymmetric, practically annihilates inflationary inertia. An implication of our model is that stabilization may be successful even when credibility is absent, provided that it is preceded by a mechanism of price alignment. We also develop an analytical framework for analyzing imperfect credibility cases.
Book Synopsis Nominal Exchange Rate Anchoring Under Inflation Inertia by : Guillermo Calvo
Download or read book Nominal Exchange Rate Anchoring Under Inflation Inertia written by Guillermo Calvo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-02 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a theory of inflation inertia based on forward looking staggered price setting in the nontradable goods sector of a small open economy. Unlike current theories of sticky prices, transitions to a lower steady state inflation rate take time even if they are fully credible, and they are associated with significant output losses in nontradables There is a welfare trade-off between these output losses and the gains from smaller inflationary distortions. Gains exceed losses for most calibrations. The optimal steady state is the Friedman rule.
Book Synopsis Monopolistic Competition, Credibility and the Output Costs of Disinflation Programs by : Sweder Van Wijnbergen
Download or read book Monopolistic Competition, Credibility and the Output Costs of Disinflation Programs written by Sweder Van Wijnbergen and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brazil, Argentina and Israel all used price controls as part of disinflation programs in 1985-1986. In each case they were intended to break an "inertial" component of inflation. This paper focuses on a specific mechanism through which inflation inertia can emerge: the interaction between lack of credibility of government monetary policy announcements and the price setting behavior of forward looking firms. We show that this interaction can lead to inertia extending well beyond the price setting period; that is important since the price setting period is likely to be short in high inflation economies. We develop an open economy macromodel in which firms set prices before uncertainty about government monetary policy is resolved. Lack of credibility is then shown to lead to output losses during a disinflation program. We demonstrate the effects of price controls and show that their temporary use can be defended on welfare grounds. The paper analyzes asset price behavior during disinflation programs with and without price controls and the influence of credibility problems. We discuss nominal and real interest rates, the stock market and exchange rates. Finally we show that if past government policy has any information content about future government policy, cheating on current announcements of tight policy buys current employment gains during the price control period at the cost of higher inflation afterwards. Sustaining low inflation after the price control period thus requires restrictive monetary policy during the price control period
Book Synopsis Inflation Inertia in Egypt and its Policy Implications by : Mr.Kenji Moriyama
Download or read book Inflation Inertia in Egypt and its Policy Implications written by Mr.Kenji Moriyama and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the degree of inflation inertia in Egypt and its determinants using the cross country data consisting of over 100 countries. Medium-unbiased estimator of inflation inertia in Egypt is high compared to other countries, as indicated by its location around the upper quartile among the sample. The cross country analysis indicates that counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy and fiscal consolidation are a key to reduce inflation inertia and the costs of disinflation.
Book Synopsis Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia by : Mr.Michael Kumhof
Download or read book Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia written by Mr.Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a monetary model with nominal rigidities that differs from the conventional New Keynesian model with firms setting pricing policies instead of price levels. In response to permanent or highly persistent monetary policy shocks this model generates the empirically observed slow (inertial) and prolonged (persistent) reaction of the inflation rate, and also the recession that typically accompanies moderate disinflations. The reason is that firms respond to such shocks mostly through a change in the long-run or inflation updating component of their pricing policies. With staggered pricing policies there is a time lag before this is reflected in aggregate inflation.
Book Synopsis Disinflation in Transition by : Mr.Carlo Cottarelli
Download or read book Disinflation in Transition written by Mr.Carlo Cottarelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-08-23 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest in a series of papers published by the International Monetary Fund on economies in transition examines the experience of disinflation in Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union between 1993 and 1997. The paper reviews the economic policies underlying the dramatic drop in inflation during those years as well as other variables that facilitated the disinflation and notes that the adjustment of fiscal fundamentals as the driving force behind the disinflation, while nominal anchoring arrangements played a less prominent role. This was contrary to developments in countries, for example, in Latin America, that had experienced high inflation for a long period of time.
Book Synopsis Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey by : Faruk Selcuk
Download or read book Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey written by Faruk Selcuk and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-04-27 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.
Book Synopsis Disinflation in Transition Economies by : Ms.Sharmini Coorey
Download or read book Disinflation in Transition Economies written by Ms.Sharmini Coorey and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-12-01 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In light of the persistence of moderate inflation in many transition economies, this paper analyzes whether inflation resulted from insufficiently tight financial policies and wage pressures or from the protracted adjustment of relative prices. Using a new database for 21 countries, the effect of relative price variability on inflation is estimated within a framework controlling for nominal and real shocks. Money and wage growth were the most important determinants of inflation; relative price variability had a sizable effect at high inflation during initial liberalization and a small effect at moderate inflation. Cost recovery may contribute to variability, particularly in the advanced stages of the transition.
Book Synopsis The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve by : Robert L. Hetzel
Download or read book The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve written by Robert L. Hetzel and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-17 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Details the evolution of the monetary standard from the start of the Federal Reserve through the end of the Greenspan era. The book places that evolution in the context of the intellectual and political environment of the time. By understanding the fitful process of replacing a gold standard with a paper money standard, the conduct of monetary policy becomes a series of experiments useful for understanding the fundamental issues concerning money and prices. How did the recurrent monetary instability of the 20th century relate to the economic instability and to the associated political and social turbulence? After the detour in policy represented by FOMC chairmen Arthur Burns and G. William Miller, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan established the monetary standard originally foreshadowed by William McChesney Martin, who became chairman in 1951. The Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve explains in a straightforward way the emergence and nature of the modern, inflation-targeting central bank.
