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Inflation Dynamics In Mongolia
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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics in Mongolia by : Julia Bersch
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in Mongolia written by Julia Bersch and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation in Mongolia resembles a roller coaster ride with sharp rises and steep drops. Understanding why is critical for formulating and assessing monetary policy. Food prices are found to be a key driver of inflation, and, not surprising given Mongolia’s geography, are determined primarily by local supply conditions, highly seasonal, and subject to large but short-lived shocks (usually weather related). Nonetheless, demand factors are also found to be significant in explaining price movements and empirical evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in government wages, for example, would push up underlying inflation by 1 percentage point. So, while inflation will remain volatile due to agricultural shocks, there is space for macroeconomic stabilization policy to help reduce inflation volatility.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN 13 :9781451826937 Total Pages :93 pages Book Rating :4.8/5 (269 download)
Book Synopsis Mongolia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Mongolia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix written by International Monetary Fund and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2007-01-31 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the main determinants of inflation in Mongolia using empirical tests based on a structural model approach and vector autoregression model, with a view to assessing whether inflation is predominantly affected by commodity prices or by money supply developments. Simulation and impulse response analyses are used to estimate components of the inflation dynamics under various exogenous shocks. The paper also addresses the mineral wealth management issues faced by Mongolia, and describes the mining sector and its envisaged development over the medium term.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in Transition by : Mr.Torsten Sloek
Download or read book Monetary Policy in Transition written by Mr.Torsten Sloek and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes monetary policy in transition. It examines the dynamics of monetary policy in Mongolia using granger-causality tests for monetary variables and inflation. The paper also analyzes money demand using data from 22 Mongolian regions during 1993-1998. The analyses confirm the key role of monetary policy in stabilization and reveal that even in a transition economy as rudimentary as Mongolia, a stable money demand and a predictable relationship between inflation and monetary variables do exist. Hence market-based monetary policy is effective. In addition, the analysis points to a difference between transition and industrial economies in the elasticity of money demand with respect to activity, reflecting the larger role for transactions demand for money.
Download or read book Mongolia written by Julia Bersch and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares the output gap estimates for Mongolia based on a number of different methods. Special attention is paid to the substantial role of mining in the Mongolian economy. We find that a Blanchard and Quah-type joint model of output and inflation provides a more robust estimate of the output gap for Mongolia than the traditional statistical decompositions.
Book Synopsis Mongolia's Economic Prospects by : Matthias Helble
Download or read book Mongolia's Economic Prospects written by Matthias Helble and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2020-06-01 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication examines Mongolia’s recent economic development and outlines reforms that would help the country take advantage of its many opportunities. Mongolia is rich in natural resources and, although landlocked, is well-placed to boost trade with its two giant neighbors. The country needs to diversify its economy beyond mining, enhance economic stability, and increase employment. To maximize Mongolia’s potential the government can improve macroeconomic management, enhance the skill base, and provide hard and soft infrastructure to promote trade and efficient logistics. Governance and institutional reforms are also crucial. The government will need to continue to drive reforms so that they are well implemented and deliver the intended change.
Book Synopsis Mongolia by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Mongolia written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-29 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mongolia has made impressive progress in developing its economy over the past ten years. Medium-term prospects are promising as mining output is projected to expand by more than 20 percent per annum, on average, over the next five years. However, the prospects for sustained, rapid and inclusive non-mineral growth depend on the implementation of the stability-oriented fiscal framework that has been adopted in the aftermath of the 2008/09 balance of payments (BOP) crisis. This framework was designed to dampen volatility, mitigate risks to economic and financial stability, and strengthen long-term natural resource management. The expansionary fiscal policy of the past year is causing double-digit inflation and BOP pressures. Public spending needs to be reined in, in order not to risk undermining stability and growth prospects, and in view of Mongolia’s vulnerability to a downturn in commodities exports.
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Book Synopsis Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines by : Mr.Si Guo
Download or read book Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines written by Mr.Si Guo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-12 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.
Book Synopsis Singapore: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore by : International Monetary
Download or read book Singapore: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-16 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Singapore entered the COVID-19 pandemic with sizable policy space and robust economic policy frameworks, yet facing longer-term challenges. The economy has been severely impacted by the pandemic, but a bold, comprehensive, and coordinated policy package has helped cushion the economic fallout. Following a record contraction in the first half of 2020, activity has rebounded, and growth is projected to strengthen to 6 percent in 2021, underpinned by a recovery in domestic demand and a positive contribution from net exports. The uncertainty surrounding the outlook is larger than usual.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :109 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Mongolia by : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Download or read book Mongolia written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-04 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mongolia’s economic conditions stabilized by 2023H2, helped by China’s reopening. The economy was in a challenging position in 2022 with widening external and internal imbalances due to multiple global shocks, policy excesses and governance lapses. However, greater exchange rate (ER) flexibility; the government’s strenuous efforts to facilitate exports; an influx of new private external financing, and some moderation of global shocks helped lift economic activity, moderate inflation, and stabilize the external position by end-2022. Effective public debt management by the government mitigated rollover risks. A supplementary budget for 2023 introduced large and permanent expansions in wages, benefits, and pensions.
Book Synopsis Optimal Money Flow by : Lawrence C. Marsh
Download or read book Optimal Money Flow written by Lawrence C. Marsh and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2020-06-16 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extremes in income and wealth inequality are leading us closer to a highly insecure and unstable economy. Neoclassical, monetarist, Keynesian, and other economic paradigms have proven inadequate to explain this phenomenon. While many books promote redistribution as an issue of fairness, Lawrence C. Marsh’s Optimal Money Flow explicitly sets aside the fairness issue to argue instead that redistribution is imperative for economic efficiency, stability, and maximum economic growth. Marsh introduces his unique money flow paradigm as the replacement for other economic paradigms that have failed at addressing the situation we face today. Marsh’s money flow paradigm views the flow of money to the top of the wealth pyramid as inherent, inevitable, and inexorable to the free enterprise system. This new paradigm requires that government assume its rightful responsibility to direct sufficient money flow from the top to the bottom (like a heart pumping blood throughout the body) in order to maximize employment, economic growth, and efficient resource allocation. In a healthy economy, the money then flows naturally back up to the top in a circulatory flow. Optimal Money Flow provides an abundance of stimulating, original ideas for readers who appreciate books at the intersection of economics and politics. One such idea is Marsh’s "My America" personal accounts. This new policy tool would serve as an alternative to the Fed buying US Treasury securities in New York financial markets, which just lowers interest rates and boosts stock and bond prices. Instead, a "My America" Federal Reserve bank account would be created for every American, into which money could be injected directly to provide consumers with cash to stimulate demand when the economy slows. Conservatives will appreciate two aspects of this approach: The people, not the government, decide how to spend the money, and it does not increase taxes or add to the national debt, while it simultaneously avoids excessive inflation through prudent monetary management. It also uses less money and has a more direct and immediate impact on consumer demand than the purchase of US Treasury securities. Lawrence Marsh sees government as the heart of the free enterprise system—where it does and should play an active part in maintaining and ensuring efficient and equitable resource allocation in an economy. Previous economic paradigms viewed government as an external, alien force outside the system, but Marsh promotes a very different approach. While he acknowledges there is efficiency in the market for ordinary goods and services, he sees contagion effects and inefficiency in many financial markets. With higher levels of globalization, low levels of unionization, and more rapid technological change, a new type of business cycle has emerged—one in which rising middle-class debt and stock market bubbles have replaced price and wage inflation as the source of economic instability. Marsh believes government can contribute to the efficiency of the free enterprise system by better aligning marginal costs and marginal benefits, and that in the long run, government can greatly enhance efficiency, productivity, and economic growth. Marsh also takes on the commonly held notion of a static fight over a fixed economic pie with the assertion that this view must be replaced with one of a dynamic process that maximizes the growth rate of the economic pie for everyone—by keeping the money flowing to all parts of the economy. Optimal Money Flow’s important message and unique proposals deliver a fresh view of the interconnectedness of the globe and an updated understanding of the underlying economic forces that shape our lives today—including international trade and how one country's decisions now impact the rest of the world. Readers will rethink their basic assumptions about the nature of economics and the role of government.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies by : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-21 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.
Book Synopsis Theories of Inflation by : Helmut Frisch
Download or read book Theories of Inflation written by Helmut Frisch and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1983 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A survey of the new theories of inflation that have developed over the past two decades in response to the inflationary pressures experienced by Western countries examines the shifting debate from explaining inflation as a "causal" process to explaining its increase as a result of constantly changing expectations.
Book Synopsis Structural Economic Dynamics by : Luigi Pasinetti
Download or read book Structural Economic Dynamics written by Luigi Pasinetti and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-02 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a theoretical investigation of the influence of human learning on the development through time of a 'pure labour' economy. The theory proposed is a simple one, but aims to grasp the essential features of all industrial economies. Economists have long known that two basic phenomena lie at the root of long-term economic movements in industrial societies: capital accumulation and technical progress. Attention has been concentrated on the former. In this book, by contrast, technical progress is assigned the central role. Within a multi-sector framework, the author examines the structural dynamics of prices, production and employment (implied by differentiated rates of productivity growth and expansion of demand) against a background of 'natural' relations. He also considers a number of institutional problems. Institutional and social learning, know-how, and the diffusion of knowledge emerge as the decisive factors accounting for the success and failure of industrial societies.
Book Synopsis New Keynesian Exchange Rate Pass-Through by : David Cook
Download or read book New Keynesian Exchange Rate Pass-Through written by David Cook and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-09 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Remittance flows appear to be falling worldwide for the first time in decades as a result of the ongoing financial turmoil. It is suspected that the drop in remittance income into developing and emerging markets will have a destabilizing effect on these economies. The paper estimates the impact of remittances on output stability for countries that are dependent on these income flows. Using a sample of 70 countries, including 16 advanced economies and 54 developing countries, we find robust evidence that remittances have a negative effect on output growth volatility of recipient countries. This result supports the notion that remittance flows are a stabilizing influence on output. Thus, the fall in remittances precipitated by the ongoing global financial crisis could potentially increase output variability in recipient countries. This would present a hard challenge for governments in those countries already suffering from the crisis: they must resort to an already stressed and limited set of policy instruments, such as fiscal policy, to counter the resulting adverse economic and social impacts of lower remittances.
Book Synopsis The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations by : Tobias F. Rötheli
Download or read book The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations written by Tobias F. Rötheli and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The notion that expectations play a key role in economic decision making is a very old one. Over the past 100 years, major advances in the application of this insight in the formulation of economic models have been made in various subfields of economics. The concept of extrapolation, the idea that past observations of a series are the basis for making projections into the future, was present from the start of the modeling of dynamic economic processes"--
