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Increasing The Accuracy Of Macroeconomic Time Series Forecast By Incorporating Functional And Correlational Dependencies Between Them
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Book Synopsis Increasing the accuracy of macroeconomic time series forecast by incorporating functional and correlational dependencies between them by : Никита Моисеев
Download or read book Increasing the accuracy of macroeconomic time series forecast by incorporating functional and correlational dependencies between them written by Никита Моисеев and published by Litres. This book was released on 2022-01-29 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper presents a parametric approach to forecasting vectors of macroeconomic indicators,which takes into account functional and correlation dependencies between them. It is asserted that this information allows to achieve a steady decrease in their mean-squared forecast error. The paper also provides an algorithm for calculating the general form of the corrected probability density function for each of modelled indicators. In order to prove the efficiency of the proposed method we conduct a rigorous simulation and empirical investigation.
Book Synopsis Time-Series Forecasting by : Chris Chatfield
Download or read book Time-Series Forecasting written by Chris Chatfield and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2000-10-25 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space
Author :Gebhard Kirchgässner Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :9783540687351 Total Pages :288 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (873 download)
Book Synopsis Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis by : Gebhard Kirchgässner
Download or read book Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis written by Gebhard Kirchgässner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-27 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents modern developments in time series econometrics that are applied to macroeconomic and financial time series. It contains the most important approaches to analyze time series which may be stationary or nonstationary.
Book Synopsis Data Science for Economics and Finance by : Sergio Consoli
Download or read book Data Science for Economics and Finance written by Sergio Consoli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.
Book Synopsis Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing by : Rob Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-06-19 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Victor Zarnowitz
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Book Synopsis Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis by : Gregory C. Reinsel
Download or read book Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis written by Gregory C. Reinsel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2003-10-31 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now available in paperback, this book introduces basic concepts and methods useful in the analysis and modeling of multivariate time series data. It concentrates on the time-domain analysis of multivariate time series, and assumes univariate time series analysis, while covering basic topics such as stationary processes and their covariance matrix structure, vector AR, MA, and ARMA models, forecasting, least squares and maximum likelihood estimation for ARMA models, associated likelihood ratio testing procedures.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Time Series Models by : David Barber
Download or read book Bayesian Time Series Models written by David Barber and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first unified treatment of time series modelling techniques spanning machine learning, statistics, engineering and computer science.
Book Synopsis Analysis of Financial Time Series by : Ruey S. Tsay
Download or read book Analysis of Financial Time Series written by Ruey S. Tsay and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 2001-11-01 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fundamental topics and new methods in time series analysis Analysis of Financial Time Series provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to financial econometric models and their application to modeling and prediction of financial time series data. It utilizes real-world examples and real financial data throughout the book to apply the models and methods described. The author begins with basic characteristics of financial time series data before covering three main topics: analysis and application of univariate financial time series; the return series of multiple assets; and Bayesian inference in finance methods. Timely topics and recent results include: Value at Risk (VaR) High-frequency financial data analysis Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods Derivative pricing using jump diffusion with closed-form formulas VaR calculation using extreme value theory based on a non-homogeneous two-dimensional Poisson process Multivariate volatility models with time-varying correlations Ideal as a fundamental introduction to time series for MBA students or as a reference for researchers and practitioners in business and finance, Analysis of Financial Time Series offers an in-depth and up-to-date account of these vital methods.
Book Synopsis Demand Forecasting for Managers by : Stephan Kolassa
Download or read book Demand Forecasting for Managers written by Stephan Kolassa and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2016-08-17 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that's why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. For this reason, the authors start out from the very basics and provide a non-technical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. The book also discusses how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Economic Time Series by : Michael Clements
Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato
Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Author :Paul S.P. Cowpertwait Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :0387886982 Total Pages :262 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (878 download)
Book Synopsis Introductory Time Series with R by : Paul S.P. Cowpertwait
Download or read book Introductory Time Series with R written by Paul S.P. Cowpertwait and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-05-28 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives you a step-by-step introduction to analysing time series using the open source software R. Each time series model is motivated with practical applications, and is defined in mathematical notation. Once the model has been introduced it is used to generate synthetic data, using R code, and these generated data are then used to estimate its parameters. This sequence enhances understanding of both the time series model and the R function used to fit the model to data. Finally, the model is used to analyse observed data taken from a practical application. By using R, the whole procedure can be reproduced by the reader. All the data sets used in the book are available on the website http://staff.elena.aut.ac.nz/Paul-Cowpertwait/ts/. The book is written for undergraduate students of mathematics, economics, business and finance, geography, engineering and related disciplines, and postgraduate students who may need to analyse time series as part of their taught programme or their research.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis Intermittent Demand Forecasting by : John E. Boylan
Download or read book Intermittent Demand Forecasting written by John E. Boylan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-06-02 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. “Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). “We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.” —Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. “As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.” —Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
Book Synopsis Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications by : Tata Subba Rao
Download or read book Time Series Analysis: Methods and Applications written by Tata Subba Rao and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2012-06-26 with total page 778 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Handbook of Statistics' is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with volume 30 dealing with time series.
