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Improving Uncertainty Quantification And Visualization For Spatiotemporal Earthquake Rate Models For The Pacific Northwest
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Book Synopsis Improving Uncertainty Quantification and Visualization for Spatiotemporal Earthquake Rate Models for the Pacific Northwest by : Max Schneider
Download or read book Improving Uncertainty Quantification and Visualization for Spatiotemporal Earthquake Rate Models for the Pacific Northwest written by Max Schneider and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) has substantial earthquake risk, both due to the offshore Cascadia megathrust fault but also other fault systems that produce earthquakes under the region's population centers. Forecasts of aftershocks following large earthquakes are thus highly desirable and require statistical models of a catalog of the PNW’s past earthquakes and aftershock sequences. This is complicated by the fact that the PNW contains multiple tectonic regimes hypothesized to have different aftershock dynamics as well as two types of earthquake clustering (aftershock sequences and swarms). The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is a top-performing spatiotemporal point process model which describes the dynamics of earthquakes and aftershocks in a seismic region using a set of parameters. Typically, maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit ETAS to an earthquake catalog; however, the ETAS likelihood suffers from flatness near its optima, parameter correlation and numerical instability, making likelihood-based estimates less reliable. We present a Bayesian procedure for ETAS estimation, such that parameter estimates and uncertainty can be robustly quantified, even for small and complex catalogs like the PNW. The procedure is conditional on knowing which earthquakes triggered which aftershocks; this latent structure and the ETAS parameters are estimated iteratively. The procedure uses a Gibbs sampler to conditionally estimate the posterior distributions of each part of the model. We simulate several synthetic catalogs and test the modelling procedure, showing well-mixed posterior distributions centered on true parameter values. We also use the procedure to model the continental PNW, using a new catalog formed by algorthmically combining US and Canadian data sources and then, identifying and removing earthquake swarms. While MLEs are unstable and depend on both the optimization procedure and its initial values, Bayesian estimates are insensitive to these choices. Bayesian estimates also fit the catalog better than do MLEs. We use the Bayesian method to quantify the uncertainty in ETAS estimates when including swarms in the model or modelling across different tectonic regimes, as well as from catalog measurement error. Seismicity rate estimates and the earthquake forecasts they yield vary spatially and are usually represented as heat maps. While the visualization literature suggests that displaying forecast uncertainty improves understanding in users of forecast maps, research on uncertainty visualization (UV) is missing from earthquake science. In a pre-registered online experiment, we test the effectiveness of three UV techniques for displaying uncertainty in aftershock forecasts. Participants completed two map-reading tasks and a comparative judgment task, which demonstrated how successful a visualization was in reaching two key communication goals: indicating where many aftershocks and no aftershocks are likely (sure bets) and where the forecast is low but the uncertainty is high enough to imply potential risk (surprises). All visualizations performed equally well in the goal of communicating sure bet situations. But the visualization mapping the lower and upper bounds of an uncertainty interval was substantially better than the other map designs at communicating potential surprises. We discuss the implications of these experimental results for the communication of uncertainty in aftershock forecast maps.
Book Synopsis Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards by : Birkmann
Download or read book Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards written by Birkmann and published by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 582 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards presents a broad range of current approaches to measuring vulnerability. It provides a comprehensive overview of different concepts at the global, regional, national, and local levels, and explores various schools of thought. More than 40 distinguished academics and practitioners analyse quantitative and qualitative approaches, and examine their strengths and limitations. This book contains concrete experiences and examples from Africa, Asia, the Americas and Europe to illustrate the theoretical analyses.The authors provide answers to some of the key questions on how to measure vulnerability and they draw attention to issues with insufficient coverage, such as the environmental and institutional dimensions of vulnerability and methods to combine different methodologies.This book is a unique compilation of state-of-the-art vulnerability assessment and is essential reading for academics, students, policy makers, practitioners, and anybody else interested in understanding the fundamentals of measuring vulnerability. It is a critical review that provides important conclusions which can serve as an orientation for future research towards more disaster resilient communities.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Mathematical Geosciences by : B.S. Daya Sagar
Download or read book Handbook of Mathematical Geosciences written by B.S. Daya Sagar and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-25 with total page 911 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Open Access handbook published at the IAMG's 50th anniversary, presents a compilation of invited path-breaking research contributions by award-winning geoscientists who have been instrumental in shaping the IAMG. It contains 45 chapters that are categorized broadly into five parts (i) theory, (ii) general applications, (iii) exploration and resource estimation, (iv) reviews, and (v) reminiscences covering related topics like mathematical geosciences, mathematical morphology, geostatistics, fractals and multifractals, spatial statistics, multipoint geostatistics, compositional data analysis, informatics, geocomputation, numerical methods, and chaos theory in the geosciences.
Book Synopsis The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) by : Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
Download or read book The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) written by Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accompanying CD-ROM has same title as book.
Book Synopsis Coastal Sediments 2019 - Proceedings Of The 9th International Conference by : Ping Wang
Download or read book Coastal Sediments 2019 - Proceedings Of The 9th International Conference written by Ping Wang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-05-17 with total page 3050 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Proceedings contains over 260 papers on cutting-edge research presented at the 9th International Conference on Coastal Sediments 2019 (CS19), held in Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida, USA from May 27-31, 2019. This technical specialty conference is devoted to promoting an interdisciplinary exchange of state-of-the-art knowledge among researchers in the fields of coastal engineering, geology, oceanography, and related disciplines.With the theme of 'Advancing Science & Engineering for Resilient Coastal Systems', this Proceedings covers a wide range of research topics on coastal sediment processes from nearshore sediment transport and modelling to beach processes, shore protection, and coastal management.
Book Synopsis Model Selection and Multimodel Inference by : Kenneth P. Burnham
Download or read book Model Selection and Multimodel Inference written by Kenneth P. Burnham and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-28 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A unique and comprehensive text on the philosophy of model-based data analysis and strategy for the analysis of empirical data. The book introduces information theoretic approaches and focuses critical attention on a priori modeling and the selection of a good approximating model that best represents the inference supported by the data. It contains several new approaches to estimating model selection uncertainty and incorporating selection uncertainty into estimates of precision. An array of examples is given to illustrate various technical issues. The text has been written for biologists and statisticians using models for making inferences from empirical data.
Book Synopsis Coastal Engineering 2006 by : Jane McKee Smith
Download or read book Coastal Engineering 2006 written by Jane McKee Smith and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 1128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Proceedings contains 445 papers presented at the 30th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, which was held in San Diego, California, USA, 3-8 September 2006. The Proceedings is divided into five parts: Waves; Swash, Nearshore Currents, and Long Waves; Coastal Management, Risk, and Ecosystem Restoration; Sediment Transport and Morphology; and Coastal Structures. The individual papers cover a broad range of topics including theory, numerical and physical modeling, field measurements, case studies, design, and management. These papers provide engineers, scientists, and planners state-of-the-art information on coastal engineering and coastal processes.
Book Synopsis Earthquake Processes: Physical Modelling, Numerical Simulation and Data Analysis Part II by : Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura
Download or read book Earthquake Processes: Physical Modelling, Numerical Simulation and Data Analysis Part II written by Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura and published by Birkhäuser. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decade of the 20th century, there has been great progress in the physics of earthquake generation; that is, the introduction of laboratory-based fault constitutive laws as a basic equation governing earthquake rupture, quantitative description of tectonic loading driven by plate motion, and a microscopic approach to study fault zone processes. The fault constitutive law plays the role of an interface between microscopic processes in fault zones and macroscopic processes of a fault system, and the plate motion connects diverse crustal activities with mantle dynamics. An ambitious challenge for us is to develop realistic computer simulation models for the complete earthquake process on the basis of microphysics in fault zones and macro-dynamics in the crust-mantle system. Recent advances in high performance computer technology and numerical simulation methodology are bringing this vision within reach. The book consists of two parts and presents a cross-section of cutting-edge research in the field of computational earthquake physics. Part I includes works on microphysics of rupture and fault constitutive laws, and dynamic rupture, wave propagation and strong ground motion. Part II covers earthquake cycles, crustal deformation, plate dynamics, and seismicity change and its physical interpretation. Topics in Part II range from the 3-D simulations of earthquake generation cycles and interseismic crustal deformation associated with plate subduction to the development of new methods for analyzing geophysical and geodetical data and new simulation algorithms for large amplitude folding and mantle convection with viscoelastic/brittle lithosphere, as well as a theoretical study of accelerated seismic release on heterogeneous faults, simulation of long-range automaton models of earthquakes, and various approaches to earthquake predicition based on underlying physical and/or statistical models for seismicity change.
Download or read book Extreme Environmental Events written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Upwelling Systems of the World by : Jochen Kämpf
Download or read book Upwelling Systems of the World written by Jochen Kämpf and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-08-29 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Upwelling systems are special places in the oceans where nutrient-enriched water is brought into the euphotic zone to fuel phytoplankton blooms that, via marine food-web interactions, create the world’s richest fish resources. This book introduces the reader to the interdisciplinary science of upwelling and provides a comprehensive overview of the world’s most productive marine ecosystems in the context of climate variability, climate change and human exploitation. This material presented is suitable for undergraduate and postgraduate study or just for anyone interested to learn about the creation of life in the oceans and how this is compromised by human activities.
Book Synopsis Deep Earthquakes by : Cliff Frohlich
Download or read book Deep Earthquakes written by Cliff Frohlich and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-05-04 with total page 558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive, topical, historical, and geographical summary of deep earthquakes and related phenomena.
Book Synopsis Managing and Mining Sensor Data by : Charu C. Aggarwal
Download or read book Managing and Mining Sensor Data written by Charu C. Aggarwal and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 547 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in hardware technology have lead to an ability to collect data with the use of a variety of sensor technologies. In particular sensor notes have become cheaper and more efficient, and have even been integrated into day-to-day devices of use, such as mobile phones. This has lead to a much larger scale of applicability and mining of sensor data sets. The human-centric aspect of sensor data has created tremendous opportunities in integrating social aspects of sensor data collection into the mining process. Managing and Mining Sensor Data is a contributed volume by prominent leaders in this field, targeting advanced-level students in computer science as a secondary text book or reference. Practitioners and researchers working in this field will also find this book useful.
Book Synopsis The Fourth Paradigm by : Anthony J. G. Hey
Download or read book The Fourth Paradigm written by Anthony J. G. Hey and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreword. A transformed scientific method. Earth and environment. Health and wellbeing. Scientific infrastructure. Scholarly communication.
Book Synopsis Tectonic Geomorphology by : Douglas W. Burbank
Download or read book Tectonic Geomorphology written by Douglas W. Burbank and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-11-02 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tectonic geomorphology is the study of the interplay between tectonic and surface processes that shape the landscape in regions of active deformation and at time scales ranging from days to millions of years. Over the past decade, recent advances in the quantification of both rates and the physical basis of tectonic and surface processes have underpinned an explosion of new research in the field of tectonic geomorphology. Modern tectonic geomorphology is an exceptionally integrative field that utilizes techniques and data derived from studies of geomorphology, seismology, geochronology, structure, geodesy, stratigraphy, meteorology and Quaternary science. While integrating new insights and highlighting controversies from the ten years of research since the 1st edition, this 2nd edition of Tectonic Geomorphology reviews the fundamentals of the subject, including the nature of faulting and folding, the creation and use of geomorphic markers for tracing deformation, chronological techniques that are used to date events and quantify rates, geodetic techniques for defining recent deformation, and paleoseismologic approaches to calibrate past deformation. Overall, this book focuses on the current understanding of the dynamic interplay between surface processes and active tectonics. As it ranges from the timescales of individual earthquakes to the growth and decay of mountain belts, this book provides a timely synthesis of modern research for upper-level undergraduate and graduate earth science students and for practicing geologists. Additional resources for this book can be found at: www.wiley.com/go/burbank/geomorphology.
Book Synopsis Intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction by : W.D. Stuart
Download or read book Intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction written by W.D. Stuart and published by Birkhäuser. This book was released on 1988-03 with total page 564 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reprint from Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH), Volume 126 (1988), No. 2/4
Book Synopsis Principles of Remote Sensing by : Lucas L. F. Janssen
Download or read book Principles of Remote Sensing written by Lucas L. F. Janssen and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Geographic Information Systems in Business by : James B. Pick
Download or read book Geographic Information Systems in Business written by James B. Pick and published by Igi Global. This book was released on 2005 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains state-of-the-art research studies on the concepts, theory, processes, and real world applications of geographical information systems (GIS) in business. Its chapters are authored by many of the leading experts in applying GIS and geospatial science to business. The book utilizes a wide variety of approaches and methodologies including conceptual theory development, research frameworks, quantitative and qualitative methods, case studies, systems design, DSS theory, and geospatial analysis combined with point-of-sale. Since relatively little research has been published on GIS in business, this book is pioneering and should be the principal compendium of the latest research in this area. The book impacts not only the underlying definitions, concepts, and theories of GIS in business and industry, but its practice as well.
