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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (836 download)
Download or read book Improved Forecasting with Leading Indicators written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Kajal Lahiri
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521438582
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (385 download)
Download or read book Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
Author : Michael Clements
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521634809
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (348 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Author : Elia Kacapyr
Publisher : M.E. Sharpe
ISBN 13 : 9781563247651
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (476 download)
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Elia Kacapyr and published by M.E. Sharpe. This book was released on 1996 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Widening the focus from the usual business forecasts, explains the techniques for predicting macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, interest rates, and employment. Reviews the concepts of business cycles and long waves, then describes techniques using economic indicators, time series, econometric models, and consensus. Also considers the evaluation of forecasts. Readers with a solid background in mathematics and statistics should learn now to make forecasts; others should get an intuitive understanding that will improve their interpretation of forecasts by others. Paper edition (unseen), $29.95. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Author : James H. Stock
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226774740
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (267 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Author : Chikako Baba
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463922019
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)
Download or read book Predicting Recessions written by Chikako Baba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data shows that forecasts obtained from the algorithm are consistently among the best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are reasonable and consistent with the standard leading indicators followed by many observers of business cycles. The suggested algorithm has several advantages, including wide applicability and objective variable selection.
Author : Michael Gilliland
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111922456X
Total Pages : 419 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (192 download)
Download or read book Business Forecasting written by Michael Gilliland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-05 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.
Author : Robert Lehmann
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (822 download)
Download or read book Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors written by Robert Lehmann and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Maria Khait
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (88 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Future Economic Growth written by Maria Khait and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The broad literature documents the empirical regularity that slope of the term structure of interest rates is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity. Steeper slopes presage increasing growth, and downward sloping term structures presage declining growth or even recession. Some instances of slope's misleading signals were recorded in 2006 (the term structure was flat, indicating decline in economic activity when high growth continued) and 2008 (the term structure was very steep, predicting economic growth when recession continued and took a deep dive). Moreover, Breeden (2012a) showed that the term structure of interest rates has had less predictive power over the past fifty years than has been found in earlier researches over shorter periods of time. The key idea underlying this paper was to test whether the term structure of volatility and the term structure of inflation combined with the term spread could improve predictions of future economic growth compared to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable. This study finds that while the term structure spread and volatility appear to be statistically significant variables there is little evidence of improved performance compare to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable.
Author : Ms.Piyabha Kongsamut
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148433096X
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Incorporating Macro-Financial Linkages into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices: The Case of France written by Ms.Piyabha Kongsamut and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can information on financial conditions be used to better understand macroeconomic developments and improve macroeconomic projections? We investigate this question for France by constructing country-specific financial conditions indices (FCIs) that are tailored to movements in GDP, investment, private consumption and exports respectively. We rely on a VAR approach to estimate the weights of the financial components of each FCI, including equity market returns (which turn out having a relatively strong weight across all FCIs), private sector risk premiums, long-term interest rates, and banks’ credit standards. We find that the tailored FCIs are useful as leading indicators of GDP, investment, and exports, and as a contemporaneous indicator of private consumption. Credit volumes turn out to be lagging indicators of growth. The indices inform us on macro-financial linkages in France and are used to improve the accuracy of quarterly forecasting models and high-frequency “nowcast” models. We show that FCI-augmented models could have significantly improved forecasts during and after the global financial crisis.
Author : Charles Edward Webster
Publisher : Irwin Professional Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 226 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Executive's Guide to Business and Economic Forecasting written by Charles Edward Webster and published by Irwin Professional Publishing. This book was released on 1986 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stephan Kolassa
Publisher : Business Expert Press
ISBN 13 : 1606495038
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (64 download)
Download or read book Demand Forecasting for Managers written by Stephan Kolassa and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2016-08-17 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that's why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. For this reason, the authors start out from the very basics and provide a non-technical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. The book also discusses how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it.
Author : Chaman L. Jain
Publisher : Institute of Business Forec
ISBN 13 : 9780932126870
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (268 download)
Download or read book Benchmarking written by Chaman L. Jain and published by Institute of Business Forec. This book was released on 2006 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Johanna Garnitz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (115 download)
Download or read book Forecasting GDP All Over the World Using Leading Indicators Based on Comprehensive Survey Data written by Johanna Garnitz and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries and three country aggregates separately. We come up with three major results. First, for more than three-fourths of the countries or country-aggregates in our sample a model containing one of the major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to a benchmark model. Second, the most important WES indicators are either the economic climate or the expectations on future economic development for the next six months. And third, adding the WES indicators of the main trading partners leads to a further increase of forecast accuracy in more than 50% of the countries. It seems therefore reasonable to incorporate economic signals from the domestic economy's main trading partners.
Author : Beatrice N. Vaccara
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators written by Beatrice N. Vaccara and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The composite index of leading indicators is found to be a valuable tool for predicting not only the direction but also the size of near- term changes in aggregate economic activity. This conclusion is based on assessments of the leading index as a predictor of (1) business cycle turning points as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and (2) quantitative changes in real GNP and the composite index of coincident indicators. Specific smoothing rules are identified which reduce the frequency of false signals but still provide adequate early warning of cyclical turning points. Simple regression models based on first differences in the logarithms produce a comparatively good record of forecasts one and two quarters ahead. The best results are obtained by using predictive chains whereby, e.g., quarterly changes in the lagging index (inverted) for Q[sub t] are used to forecast changes in the leading index in quarter Q which in turn are used to forecast changes in real GNP (or the coincident index) in Q[sub t+2].
Author : J.S. Armstrong
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0306476304
Total Pages : 840 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (64 download)
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-05-31 with total page 840 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Author : Barrett Williams
Publisher : Barrett Williams
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 163 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth written by Barrett Williams and published by Barrett Williams. This book was released on 2024-08-24 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlock the Power of Predicting Tomorrow with "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth"! Are you ready to delve into the intricate world of economic forecasting? Discover the strategies, methods, and tools that shape the way experts predict future economic trends. "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is your comprehensive guide to mastering economic predictions and leveraging them for smarter decision-making. Start your journey with an essential introduction to economic forecasting, exploring its significance, history, and the key players that have set the stage. As you progress, get acquainted with the fundamentals of data analysis in economics – uncover the types of data, collection methods, and basic concepts in economic modeling. Dive deeper into statistical techniques with chapters dedicated to descriptive and inferential statistics, and regression analysis. Grasp the intricacies of time series analysis and learn how to utilize economic indicators for accurate predictions. Build your full understanding of constructing and validating predictive economic models. Venture into advanced econometric techniques and discover the cutting-edge role of machine learning in economic forecasting. Understand the impact of big data, and the nuanced field of behavioral economics, to enhance your forecasting accuracy even further. Explore the significance of economic policy analysis, scenario planning, and stress testing. Enhance your insight on forecasting financial markets and evaluate the accuracy of your predictions with clear, actionable metrics. Learn the best practices for communicating your forecasts, ensuring clarity and impact. Ethics play a critical role in economic forecasting. This eBook provides a mindful exploration of ethical considerations, dilemmas, and solutions, backed by real-world case studies. Utilize forecasts to shape business strategies and align them with market realities. As you reach the final chapters, look ahead to the future of economic forecasting, exploring emerging trends, the transformative influence of AI, and the dynamics of a globalized economy. "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is a must-have for anyone seeking to understand and apply economic forecasting techniques. Equip yourself with the knowledge to predict, plan, and prosper in an ever-changing economic landscape. Your journey into the future of economics starts here!
