Identification Of Biased Beliefs In Games Of Incomplete Information Using Experimental Data

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Identification of Biased Beliefs in Games of Incomplete Information Using Experimental Data

Author : Victor Aguirregabiria
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (949 download)

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Book Synopsis Identification of Biased Beliefs in Games of Incomplete Information Using Experimental Data by : Victor Aguirregabiria

Download or read book Identification of Biased Beliefs in Games of Incomplete Information Using Experimental Data written by Victor Aguirregabiria and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the identification of players' preferences and beliefs in empirical applications of discrete choice games using experimental data. The experiment comprises a set of games with similar features (e.g., two-player coordination games) where each game has different values for the players' monetary payoffs. Each game can be interpreted as an experimental treatment group. The researcher assigns randomly subjects to play these games and observes the outcome of the game as described by the vector of players' actions. Data from this experiment can be described in terms of the empirical distribution of players' actions conditional on the treatment group. The researcher is interested in the nonparametric identification of players' preferences (utility function of money) and players' beliefs about the expected behavior of other players, without imposing restrictions such as unbiased or rational beliefs or a particular functional form for the utility of money. We show that the hypothesis of unbiased/rational beliefs is testable and propose a test of this null hypothesis. We apply our method to two sets of experiments conducted by Goeree and Holt (2001) and Heinemann, Nagel and Ockenfels (2009). Our empirical results suggest that in the matching pennies game, a player is able to correctly predict other player's behavior. In the public good coordination game, our test can reject the null hypothesis of unbiased beliefs when the payoff of the non-cooperative action is relatively low.

Identification and Estimation of Empirical Games Without Equilibrium Assumption

Author : Erhao Xie
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (133 download)

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Book Synopsis Identification and Estimation of Empirical Games Without Equilibrium Assumption by : Erhao Xie

Download or read book Identification and Estimation of Empirical Games Without Equilibrium Assumption written by Erhao Xie and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical studies of games typically rely on Nash Equilibrium. However, such solution concept is rejected by experimental evidence in many situations. The incorrect imposition of Nash Equilibrium can generate bias in both estimation and counterfactual prediction. Therefore, my thesis studies the identification and estimation of empirical games without equilibrium assumption. The first two chapters focus on discrete choice games with incomplete information. Instead of restricting players to have unbiased expectation as required by equilibrium, my model treats a player's belief about the behaviors of other players as an unrestricted unknown function. This belief function is estimated together with players' payoffs. The first chapter shows that the variations of players' choice sets identify the payoff and belief functions up to scale normalizations. Moreover, the hypothesis of unbiased belief is testable. I then empirically study store hours competition between McDonald's and KFC in China. The null hypothesis of KFC's unbiased beliefs is rejected. Furthermore, the estimated payoff functions indicate that the store hours decision is a type of vertical differentiation. The second chapter, co-authored with Victor Aguirregabiria, focuses on experimental games. We show that another source of identification (i.e. one variable affects one player's payoffs without affecting this player's belief) can achieve similar identification results as chapter 1. We then apply our methods to two sets of experiments. In the matching pennies game, a player can correctly predict the other player's behavior. In contrast, the hypothesis of unbiased belief is rejected in the coordination game. When players do not adopt equilibrium strategies, they can learn from their mistakes to better perform in the future. Therefore, the third chapter studies the identification of learning behaviors using experimental data. I consider a general model that nests commonly used learning procedures. More importantly, instead of assuming monetary payoff is players' actual utility as in existing literature, I treat utility as an unknown unrestricted function. Under weak conditions, I show that players' structural learning parameters and utility function are identified. The finite sample properties of MLE and consequences of misspecification of utility function are illustrated by a Monte Carlo simulation.

Biased Beliefs About Random Samples

Author : Daniel J. Benjamin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 65 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Biased Beliefs About Random Samples by : Daniel J. Benjamin

Download or read book Biased Beliefs About Random Samples written by Daniel J. Benjamin and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood that short sequences and random subsets of coin flips would be balanced between heads and tails. Consistent with the Non-Belief in the Law of Large Numbers (NBLLN), participants underestimated the likelihood that large samples would be close to 50% heads. However, we identify some shortcomings of existing models of LSN, and we find that NBLLN may not be as stable as previous studies suggest. We also find evidence for exact representativeness (ER), whereby people tend to exaggerate the likelihood that samples will (nearly) exactly mirror the underlying odds, as an additional bias beyond LSN. Our within-subject design of asking many different questions about the same data lets us disentangle the biases from possible rational alternative interpretations by showing that the biases lead to inconsistency in answers. Our design also centers on identifying and controlling for bin effects, whereby the probability assigned to outcomes systematically depends on the categories used to elicit beliefs in a way predicted by support theory. The bin effects are large and systematic and affect some results, but we find LSN, NBLLN, and ER even after controlling for them.

Identifying confirmatory bias in the field : evidence from a poll of experts

Author : Rodney J. Andrews
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (794 download)

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Book Synopsis Identifying confirmatory bias in the field : evidence from a poll of experts by : Rodney J. Andrews

Download or read book Identifying confirmatory bias in the field : evidence from a poll of experts written by Rodney J. Andrews and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Laboratory experiments have established the existence of cognitive biases, but their explanatory power in real-world economic settings has been difficult to measure. We estimate the extent of a cognitive bias, confirmatory bias, among experts in a real-world environment. In the Associated Press Top 25 College Football Poll expert pollsters are tasked with assessing team quality, and their beliefs are treated week-to-week with game results that serve as signals about an individual team's quality. We exploit the variation provided by actual game results relative to market expectations to develop a novel regression-discontinuity approach to identify confirmatory bias in this real-world setting. We construct a unique personally-assembled dataset that matches more than twenty years of individual game characteristics to poll results and betting market information, and show that teams that slightly exceed and barely miss market expectations are exchangeable. The likelihood of winning the game, the average number of points scored by teams and their opponents, and even the average week of the season are no different between teams that slightly exceed and barely miss market expectations. Pollsters, however, significantly upgrade their beliefs about a team's quality when a team slightly exceeds market expectations. The effects are sizeable-- nearly half of the voters in the poll rank a team one slot higher when they slightly exceed market expectations; one-fifth of the standard deviation in poll points in a given week can be attributed to confirmatory bias. This type of updating suggests that even when informed agents make repeated decisions they may act in a manner which is consistent with confirmatory bias.

Biased Beliefs and Imperfect Information

Author : Eugenio Proto
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Biased Beliefs and Imperfect Information by : Eugenio Proto

Download or read book Biased Beliefs and Imperfect Information written by Eugenio Proto and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We perform an incentivized experiment designed to assess the accuracy of beliefs about characteristics and decisions. Subjects are asked to declare some specific choices and characteristics with different levels of observability from an external point of view, and typically formed through real world experiences. From the less observable mobile phone purchasing decisions, hypothetical restaurant choices, political views, happiness to the fully observable height and weight; after they are asked to report beliefs on statistics over the same items concerning other individuals living in the same environment. We test two main hypotheses: (i) whether for items not perfectly observable, individuals suffer of some type of bias in these beliefs; (ii) whether this bias would disappear for weight and height, when the information is perfectly available. We find a powerful and ubiquitous bias in perceptions that is "self-centered" in the sense that those at extremes tend to perceive themselves as closer to the middle of the distribution than is the case. Albeit weaker, this bias does not disappear when the information is readily available as in height and weight. We present evidence from our experiment that limited attention and self-serving deception can provide explanations for this bias and present important economic applications.

The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy

Author : Barry R. Weingast
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0191563404
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (915 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy by : Barry R. Weingast

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy written by Barry R. Weingast and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2008-06-20 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over its long lifetime, "political economy" has had many different meanings: the science of managing the resources of a nation so as to provide wealth to its inhabitants for Adam Smith; the study of how the ownership of the means of production influenced historical processes for Marx; the study of the inter-relationship between economics and politics for some twentieth-century commentators; and for others, a methodology emphasizing individual rationality (the economic or "public choice" approach) or institutional adaptation (the sociological version). This Handbook views political economy as a grand (if imperfect) synthesis of these various strands, treating political economy as the methodology of economics applied to the analysis of political behavior and institutions. This Handbook surveys the field of political economy, with 58 chapters ranging from micro to macro, national to international, institutional to behavioral, methodological to substantive. Chapters on social choice, constitutional theory, and public economics are set alongside ones on voters, parties and pressure groups, macroeconomics and politics, capitalism and democracy, and international political economy and international conflict.

Neuroeconomics

Author : Paul W. Glimcher
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0123914698
Total Pages : 606 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (239 download)

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Book Synopsis Neuroeconomics by : Paul W. Glimcher

Download or read book Neuroeconomics written by Paul W. Glimcher and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-08-13 with total page 606 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years since it first published, Neuroeconomics: Decision Making and the Brain has become the standard reference and textbook in the burgeoning field of neuroeconomics. The second edition, a nearly complete revision of this landmark book, will set a new standard. This new edition features five sections designed to serve as both classroom-friendly introductions to each of the major subareas in neuroeconomics, and as advanced synopses of all that has been accomplished in the last two decades in this rapidly expanding academic discipline. The first of these sections provides useful introductions to the disciplines of microeconomics, the psychology of judgment and decision, computational neuroscience, and anthropology for scholars and students seeking interdisciplinary breadth. The second section provides an overview of how human and animal preferences are represented in the mammalian nervous systems. Chapters on risk, time preferences, social preferences, emotion, pharmacology, and common neural currencies—each written by leading experts—lay out the foundations of neuroeconomic thought. The third section contains both overview and in-depth chapters on the fundamentals of reinforcement learning, value learning, and value representation. The fourth section, "The Neural Mechanisms for Choice, integrates what is known about the decision-making architecture into state-of-the-art models of how we make choices. The final section embeds these mechanisms in a larger social context, showing how these mechanisms function during social decision-making in both humans and animals. The book provides a historically rich exposition in each of its chapters and emphasizes both the accomplishments and the controversies in the field. A clear explanatory style and a single expository voice characterize all chapters, making core issues in economics, psychology, and neuroscience accessible to scholars from all disciplines. The volume is essential reading for anyone interested in neuroeconomics in particular or decision making in general. - Editors and contributing authors are among the acknowledged experts and founders in the field, making this the authoritative reference for neuroeconomics - Suitable as an advanced undergraduate or graduate textbook as well as a thorough reference for active researchers - Introductory chapters on economics, psychology, neuroscience, and anthropology provide students and scholars from any discipline with the keys to understanding this interdisciplinary field - Detailed chapters on subjects that include reinforcement learning, risk, inter-temporal choice, drift-diffusion models, game theory, and prospect theory make this an invaluable reference - Published in association with the Society for Neuroeconomics—www.neuroeconomics.org - Full-color presentation throughout with numerous carefully selected illustrations to highlight key concepts

Risk Aversion in Experiments

Author : G.W. Harrison
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0762313846
Total Pages : 449 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Aversion in Experiments by : G.W. Harrison

Download or read book Risk Aversion in Experiments written by G.W. Harrison and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2008-02-29 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents research utilizing laboratory experimental methods in economics.

An Experimental Study of Belief

Author : Tamekichi Okabe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis An Experimental Study of Belief by : Tamekichi Okabe

Download or read book An Experimental Study of Belief written by Tamekichi Okabe and published by . This book was released on 1910 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Social Science Research

Author : Anol Bhattacherjee
Publisher : CreateSpace
ISBN 13 : 9781475146127
Total Pages : 156 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (461 download)

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Book Synopsis Social Science Research by : Anol Bhattacherjee

Download or read book Social Science Research written by Anol Bhattacherjee and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-04-01 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is designed to introduce doctoral and graduate students to the process of conducting scientific research in the social sciences, business, education, public health, and related disciplines. It is a one-stop, comprehensive, and compact source for foundational concepts in behavioral research, and can serve as a stand-alone text or as a supplement to research readings in any doctoral seminar or research methods class. This book is currently used as a research text at universities on six continents and will shortly be available in nine different languages.

The Handbook of Experimental Economics

Author : John H. Kagel
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691213259
Total Pages : 742 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis The Handbook of Experimental Economics by : John H. Kagel

Download or read book The Handbook of Experimental Economics written by John H. Kagel and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-05-05 with total page 742 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, which comprises eight chapters, presents a comprehensive critical survey of the results and methods of laboratory experiments in economics. The first chapter provides an introduction to experimental economics as a whole, with the remaining chapters providing surveys by leading practitioners in areas of economics that have seen a concentration of experiments: public goods, coordination problems, bargaining, industrial organization, asset markets, auctions, and individual decision making. The work aims both to help specialists set an agenda for future research and to provide nonspecialists with a critical review of work completed to date. Its focus is on elucidating the role of experimental studies as a progressive research tool so that wherever possible, emphasis is on series of experiments that build on one another. The contributors to the volume--Colin Camerer, Charles A. Holt, John H. Kagel, John O. Ledyard, Jack Ochs, Alvin E. Roth, and Shyam Sunder--adopt a particular methodological point of view: the way to learn how to design and conduct experiments is to consider how good experiments grow organically out of the issues and hypotheses they are designed to investigate.

Repeated Games with Incomplete Information

Author : Robert J. Aumann
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262011471
Total Pages : 372 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (114 download)

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Book Synopsis Repeated Games with Incomplete Information by : Robert J. Aumann

Download or read book Repeated Games with Incomplete Information written by Robert J. Aumann and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The basic model studied throughout the book is one in which players ignorant about the game being played must learn what they can from the actions of the others.

Structural Macroeconometrics

Author : David N. DeJong
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400840503
Total Pages : 435 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Structural Macroeconometrics by : David N. DeJong

Download or read book Structural Macroeconometrics written by David N. DeJong and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-03 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The revised edition of the essential resource on macroeconometrics Structural Macroeconometrics provides a thorough overview and in-depth exploration of methodologies, models, and techniques used to analyze forces shaping national economies. In this thoroughly revised second edition, David DeJong and Chetan Dave emphasize time series econometrics and unite theoretical and empirical research, while taking into account important new advances in the field. The authors detail strategies for solving dynamic structural models and present the full range of methods for characterizing and evaluating empirical implications, including calibration exercises, method-of-moment procedures, and likelihood-based procedures, both classical and Bayesian. The authors look at recent strides that have been made to enhance numerical efficiency, consider the expanded applicability of dynamic factor models, and examine the use of alternative assumptions involving learning and rational inattention on the part of decision makers. The treatment of methodologies for obtaining nonlinear model representations has been expanded, and linear and nonlinear model representations are integrated throughout the text. The book offers a rich array of implementation algorithms, sample empirical applications, and supporting computer code. Structural Macroeconometrics is the ideal textbook for graduate students seeking an introduction to macroeconomics and econometrics, and for advanced students pursuing applied research in macroeconomics. The book's historical perspective, along with its broad presentation of alternative methodologies, makes it an indispensable resource for academics and professionals.

The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis

Author : Sanjit Dhami
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192586513
Total Pages : 459 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)

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Book Synopsis The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis by : Sanjit Dhami

Download or read book The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis written by Sanjit Dhami and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-07-03 with total page 459 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This fourth volume of The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis covers behavioral game theory. It is an essential guide for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students seeking a concise and focused text on this important subject, and examines the evidence on classical game theory and several models of behavioral game theory, including level-k and cognitive hierarchy models, quantal response equilibrium, and psychological game theory. This updated extract from Dhami's leading textbook allows the reader to pursue subsections of this vast and rapidly growing field and to tailor their reading to their specific interests in behavioural economics.

Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521284141
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (841 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment Under Uncertainty by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Cognitive Biases in Visualizations

Author : Geoffrey Ellis
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319958313
Total Pages : 185 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Cognitive Biases in Visualizations by : Geoffrey Ellis

Download or read book Cognitive Biases in Visualizations written by Geoffrey Ellis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.

The Handbook of Behavioral Operations

Author : Karen Donohue
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119138302
Total Pages : 688 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis The Handbook of Behavioral Operations by : Karen Donohue

Download or read book The Handbook of Behavioral Operations written by Karen Donohue and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-11-06 with total page 688 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive review of behavioral operations management that puts the focus on new and trending research in the field The Handbook of Behavioral Operations offers a comprehensive resource that fills the gap in the behavioral operations management literature. This vital text highlights best practices in behavioral operations research and identifies the most current research directions and their applications. A volume in the Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science, this book contains contributions from an international panel of scholars from a wide variety of backgrounds who are conducting behavioral research. The handbook provides succinct tutorials on common methods used to conduct behavioral research, serves as a resource for current topics in behavioral operations research, and as a guide to the use of new research methods. The authors review the fundamental theories and offer frameworks from a psychological, systems dynamics, and behavioral economic standpoint. They provide a crucial grounding for behavioral operations as well as an entry point for new areas of behavioral research. The handbook also presents a variety of behavioral operations applications that focus on specific areas of study and includes a survey of current and future research needs. This important resource: Contains a summary of the methodological foundations and in-depth treatment of research best practices in behavioral research. Provides a comprehensive review of the research conducted over the past two decades in behavioral operations, including such classic topics as inventory management, supply chain contracting, forecasting, and competitive sourcing. Covers a wide-range of current topics and applications including supply chain risk, responsible and sustainable supply chain, health care operations, culture and trust. Connects existing bodies of behavioral operations literature with related fields, including psychology and economics. Provides a vision for future behavioral research in operations. Written for academicians within the operations management community as well as for behavioral researchers, The Handbook of Behavioral Operations offers a comprehensive resource for the study of how individuals make decisions in an operational context with contributions from experts in the field.